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I would say undefeated Boise gets in above 1 loss AAC champ. Undefeated seasons are rare and special.

(10-06-2019 05:25 PM)bcat1997 Wrote:  I would say undefeated Boise gets in above 1 loss AAC champ. Undefeated seasons are rare and special.

That would be a shame considering they most likely would have zero games against a top 25 team. Compare that to someone like Cincinnati who would have a minimum of 4 games against top 25 teams and in this theoretical argument if the only loss was to an undefeated Ohio State team that would make it extremely tough for me to buy Boise over Cincinnati in that situation. Especially also considering the shared opponents show a large discrepancy in favor of Cincinnati.

We have a very, very, long way to get to that point so it’s all theoretical at this point. In the end, I think Boise is a bit over rated and believe there is a decent chance they drop a game.

The biggest thing is getting a win this Saturday, which seems on paper to be more attainable with King and the WR in their crazy redshirt scenario. Don't get complacent and buy into all the hype, keep the train moving in the right direction. I have some thoughts on the path to the NY6 which we can discuss ad nausem later. The end of the season will be very entertaining with Temple at Nippert, at Memphis and a possible AAC Championship game appearance.

While the CFP rankings will be the only one that matters in the end, here's how a few computer metrics shape up right now.

Sagarin:
25 Boise State
29 Memphis
30 Cincinnati
37 SMU

Strength of schedule
31 Cincinnati
76 SMU
111 Boise State
123 Memphis

FPI
28 Cincinnati
31 Boise State
39 Memphis
41 SMU

Massey
17. SMU
20. Cincinnati
21. Boise State
22. Memphis

(10-06-2019 01:35 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  I argued agiant playing Ohio State in the pre-season. We would be top 15 if we smacked around any G5 school instead of playing the eventual national champions on the road.

Maybe the committee sees it differently and gives UC some love to keep Ohio State in a safe spot.

I think you're 100% right. Because of the way the system is set up to work against the G5, you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. To even have a remote chance of making the playoff, they want you to schedule OSU type of teams and beat them on the road. But if you lose, you're at a major disadvantage to make the New Year's Six game. Since making the playoff is almost impossible, it makes more sense to not schedule OSU type of teams and instead play home-and-homes with mediocre P5 teams.

(10-07-2019 09:35 AM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 01:35 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  I argued agiant playing Ohio State in the pre-season. We would be top 15 if we smacked around any G5 school instead of playing the eventual national champions on the road.

Maybe the committee sees it differently and gives UC some love to keep Ohio State in a safe spot.

I think you're 100% right. Because of the way the system is set up to work against the G5, you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. To even have a remote chance of making the playoff, they want you to schedule OSU type of teams and beat them on the road. But if you lose, you're at a major disadvantage to make the New Year's Six game. Since making the playoff is almost impossible, it makes more sense to not schedule OSU type of teams and instead play home-and-homes with mediocre P5 teams.

I wouldn't say replace OSU with a G5; the better move would have been to play a middle-of-the-road P5 team with some name cache (basically most of the PAC12 and ACC minus Clemson, or someone like Maryland in the B10).

Its basically suicide for a G5 school to take a buy game against OSU, Alabama, Oklahoma or Clemson. Those schools are reeking in more cash and are recruiting at an unparalleled level, even against 90% of the P5.

That's because the college football playoff is having the effect of concentrating all the best talent at the six schools who are most likely to get in the playoffs.

The greatest possible benefit of playoff expansion would be to spread that talent over about a dozen schools instead.

As I said before the season and again week of osu, scheduling buy games at osu are devastating to building our program. We’d be sitting much better had we beaten up a sun belt team, or beat a middle of the road P5 or heck even lost to them respectably. A lot of people on here did not like hearing it at the time but it’s indisputable now. The only time we should play a team like that is in the bowl game. If we pull off the win there awesome, if we lose we still get to claim playing the bowl game just like orange and sugar bowl appearances. Also if we drop a mid season game to a Memphis or Houston but go otherwise undefeated we’re still in! 2 losses eliminates us so scheduling a guaranteed loss is a terrible plan.

The way to build the program is to win as many games as possible. Best way into the NY6 bowl is to go undefeated.

As for the rest of this year we need to win out and hope Boise drops a game. If they do then we can point to our only common opponent which is Marshall along with better wins and we’re in. If they go undefeated then we don’t deserve to jump them. Even with multiple better wins, a 42-0 loss should never come ahead of another teams undefeated season. Lots of football between now and then and we have to win them one game at a time!

(10-07-2019 10:03 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(10-07-2019 09:35 AM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  

(10-06-2019 01:35 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  I argued agiant playing Ohio State in the pre-season. We would be top 15 if we smacked around any G5 school instead of playing the eventual national champions on the road.

Maybe the committee sees it differently and gives UC some love to keep Ohio State in a safe spot.

I think you're 100% right. Because of the way the system is set up to work against the G5, you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. To even have a remote chance of making the playoff, they want you to schedule OSU type of teams and beat them on the road. But if you lose, you're at a major disadvantage to make the New Year's Six game. Since making the playoff is almost impossible, it makes more sense to not schedule OSU type of teams and instead play home-and-homes with mediocre P5 teams.

I wouldn't say replace OSU with a G5; the better move would have been to play a middle-of-the-road P5 team with some name cache (basically most of the PAC12 and ACC minus Clemson, or someone like Maryland in the B10).

Its basically suicide for a G5 school to take a buy game against OSU, Alabama, Oklahoma or Clemson. Those schools are reeking in more cash and are recruiting at an unparalleled level, even against 90% of the P5.

I disagree. First, I give the committee some credit that they are definitely going to take schedule strongly into account and reward those that played a tougher one in many cases. Second, it's looking like just bad luck that we scheduled and played OSU at a time when they were/are playing better than anyone else in the country. That's not always the case and may not even be the case later this year, but that's how it went down this time. Third, any of youse watch Braveheart? You take your shot when you get it. Even if it doesn't work out, it beats spending a lifetime wishing for a shot that never came...

It's so pathetically defeatist to shy away from playing elite teams because we're worried it might keep us from getting into a NY6 over Boise Freaking State. Did everyone suddenly forget what put Boise on the map? All those 11 win seasons would mean far less if they didn't beat Oklahoma. Schedule the best and continue trying to become the best.

(10-07-2019 12:20 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  It's so pathetically defeatist to shy away from playing elite teams because we're worried it might keep us from getting into a NY6 over Boise Freaking State. Did everyone suddenly forget what put Boise on the map? All those 11 win seasons would mean far less if they didn't beat Oklahoma. Schedule the best and continue trying to become the best.

Boise State was put on the map by making and winning BCS Bowls where they got to play elite teams on a neutral field.

I'm fine scheduling any team in the country home and home, but I would prefer not to schedule anyone that doesn't come to Cincinnati.

Just not realistic. We can schedule 12 games against the Sun Belt and hang up a national championship banner if that's all anyone cares about.

(10-07-2019 12:46 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Just not realistic. We can schedule 12 games against the Sun Belt and hang up a national championship banner if that's all anyone cares about.

What do you mean not realistic? We have home and home games with Nebraska, Indiana, NC State, Pitt, Boston College, Boise State. In the last decade or so we've schedule home and home with Oklahoma (PBS), Miami (FL), UCLA, Oregon State, NC State, Virginia Tech (though it was moved to DC), etc.

The two options aren't 1. Play buy games against elite teams or 2. Schedule 12 games against the Sun Belt.

The best option is schedule quality games, but games that don't jeopardize the home schedule. Boise State has been doing it that way forever. Getting the G5 Major Bowl spot is far more important than near impossible one off road games with teams like Ohio State.

(10-07-2019 12:20 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  It's so pathetically defeatist to shy away from playing elite teams because we're worried it might keep us from getting into a NY6 over Boise Freaking State. Did everyone suddenly forget what put Boise on the map? All those 11 win seasons would mean far less if they didn't beat Oklahoma. Schedule the best and continue trying to become the best.

You can call it defeatist if you want, but I call it realistic. Our best chance at notoriety right now is making the NY6 bowl and beating an elite team on a neutral field.

That Oklahoma series, or any other series with the top 5-10 programs in CFB, won't be happening again anytime soon. And truly I am happy with how we're scheduling. My point isn't that we should play a landslide of buy games, it's that we should be open to playing them under the right circumstances because of how important those wins could be for our program. Two things:

1. I have a hunch the committee isn't going to put much space between undefeated Boise and 1-loss UC (if it comes down to that). So I don't think the OSU loss will actually end up hurting us anyways.
2. Scheduling occurs years in advance. You schedule based on the program you're trying to become. If UC is scheduling games in 2029 they should absolutely envision themselves as a much more competitive program, one that is comfortable going on the road and playing big-time matchups against the best of the best.

Look it sucks we got smacked by OSU and it sucks they'll never come here. But that loss doesn't affect our goal for this season and if it ever so happens that we rise to a level of success similar to what UCF had the past two seasons I guarantee we will all be dying for a chance like that on the schedule.

This was brought up in conversation during my lunch break with a friend who is a huge OSU fan and doesn't really pay attention outside of the playoff race (he didn't know/understand that the G5 was guaranteed 1 bid in a NYD bowl.)

What are the chances a 1 loss AAC and an undefeated BSU BOTH get into a NYD slot? Have to figure we'd both end up in the top 15 or so?

I don’t mind playing an OSU team every once in a while to take a shot. Just feel like it probably came at the worst possible time as we were coming off a big 11 win season and OSU was playing some of their best football ever.

If we end up going undefeated outside the OSU game and OSU remains undefeated I don’t feel like it will end up costing us really as a I think we will still find ourselves in the NY6 bowl game. Of course that’s a long way off and we have a lot of tough games before we get to that point.

(10-07-2019 01:24 PM)dubcat14 Wrote:  This was brought up in conversation during my lunch break with a friend who is a huge OSU fan and doesn't really pay attention outside of the playoff race (he didn't know/understand that the G5 was guaranteed 1 bid in a NYD bowl.)

What are the chances a 1 loss AAC and an undefeated BSU BOTH get into a NYD slot? Have to figure we'd both end up in the top 15 or so?

Bolded, there is only one slot in the Cotton Bowl and I can't imagine either BSU or the AAC champ could bump a big brand from the SEC or B10 for one of those other spots, just based upon TV viewership and potential ticket sales.

I could see a scenario where that other G5 school that didn't get the Cotton could be traded up to an unfilled slot in a respected, mid-tier bowl. It sounds crazy, but what if 'Bama, Georgia and LSU all made the CFP? That will create some openings for contracted bowls that may make other dominoes fall.

Let's see UC go beat Houston and then the speculation begins to get more interesting.

(10-07-2019 01:36 PM)OKIcat Wrote:  

(10-07-2019 01:24 PM)dubcat14 Wrote:  This was brought up in conversation during my lunch break with a friend who is a huge OSU fan and doesn't really pay attention outside of the playoff race (he didn't know/understand that the G5 was guaranteed 1 bid in a NYD bowl.)

What are the chances a 1 loss AAC and an undefeated BSU BOTH get into a NYD slot? Have to figure we'd both end up in the top 15 or so?

Bolded, there is only one slot in the Cotton Bowl and I can't imagine either BSU or the AAC champ could bump a big brand from the SEC or B10 for one of those other spots, just based upon TV viewership and potential ticket sales.

I could see a scenario where that other G5 school that didn't get the Cotton could be traded up to an unfilled slot in a respected, mid-tier bowl. It sounds crazy, but what if 'Bama, Georgia and LSU all made the CFP? That will create some openings for contracted bowls that may make other dominoes fall.

Let's see UC go beat Houston and then the speculation begins to get more interesting.

I can’t imagine one conference would get 3 spots in the CFP. It would alienate the other conferences too much and cause too many issues amongst the P5.

I do agree that it’s a little premature and we should focus on Houston, who is better than their record would indicate IMO.

Frisco Texas or Hawaii, book it.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...ons-week-6