(10-02-2019 09:33 AM)salukiblue Wrote: (10-02-2019 09:15 AM)mairving Wrote: (10-02-2019 08:34 AM)salukiblue Wrote: (10-02-2019 02:30 AM)Tiger87 Wrote: Can't see the OP caption, but I'm guessing it's Dauster. He's a definite skeptic of Penny. Seems like he had us around #10 in a way-too-early poll, but then dropped us as soon as he had an excuse (the Arky grad transfer who didn't grad). I don't think he's a hater like some, but he's certainly skeptical.
And, yeah, when you start breaking down these guys polls, it's pretty funny some of the psycho-gymnastics they go thru to rank some of these programs. Poll attacks could be interesting this year; however GP will probably avoid referencing us in order to keep his national cred.
Parrish has Memphis top 10, so that isn't the case.
To me anything 15 and under is fair. It's pretty silly to have us in the 20's even if you think Penny can't coach.
It literally defies logic.
I can see fair arguments between 5 and 15. 8-11 seems the right place when including how voters usually place schools with top recruiting classes and some returning players.
Here's some stats for you:
Teams that had the #1 recruit and the #1 recruiting class (247 composite):
2011 - Anthony Davis - Kentucky (1st), AP Pre-season rank - 2
2012 - Nerlens Noel - Kentucky (1st), AP Pre-season rank - 3
2014 - Jahlil Okafor - Duke (1st), AP Pre-season rank - 4
2017 - Marvin Bagley - Duke (1st), AP Pre-season rank - 1
2018 - RJ Barrett - Duke (1st), AP Pre-season rank - 4
2019 - James Wiseman (1st), AP Pre-season rank - ???
Teams with the #1 recruit and a top 10 recruiting class:
2010 - Harrison Barnes - North Carolina (7th), AP Pre-season rank - 8
2013 - Andrew Wiggins - Kansas (2nd), AP Pre-season rank - 5
2015 - Ben Simmons - LSU (10th), AP Pre-season rank - 21
Teams with the #1 recruit and a recruiting class above 10:
2009 - Derrick Favors - Georgia Tech (11), AP Pre-season rank - 20
2016 - Josh Jackson - Kansas (16th), AP Pre-season rank - 3
So far no team in the last ten years has had the #1 recruiting class and the #1 recruit and failed to make the top 5 in the pre-season AP poll. LSU in 2015 got the #1 recruit and had a top 10 class but were ranked 21 to start the season. They finished unranked at 19-14 for the year. So there is a slight precedent for a coach getting the #1 recruit and not doing very well. It's a little harder to quantify all of this because the only teams with the #1 recruit and #1 team were either Kentucky or Duke, both with HOF coaches...until this year.