(10-02-2019 11:56 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Anyone claiming either team is going to dominate the other hasn't watched these two teams. Could either team blow the other one out, sure footballs bounce funny, but I'm expecting a tight and high scoring affair.

I also expect a rowdy crowd.

Not sure that the premise that footballs bounce funny follows the conclusion that either team could blow the other one out. Empirical evidence used to supplement qualitative observations is the best way to go here.

(10-02-2019 10:24 AM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 09:51 AM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 09:27 AM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 12:05 AM)CajunAmos Wrote:  

(10-01-2019 09:43 PM)CoachWillRob Wrote:  Cajuns may have the best OL in the league, but it isn't by a wide margin. App returns two All SunBelt on the OL in Johnson & Hannon and probably have a 3rd this year with Neuzil. There's a reason App has the top Offense in the league, and it starts up front. I'd put our OL up against any in the league when healthy.

Cajuns have been playing with two starters out.

There isn’t an OL that’s close to the Cajuns in the SBC. There aren’t many better OL in any G5 league. Just like the Georgia Southern fans last week, they will see when the App DL gets dominated in the same fashion.

That doesn’t mean we will win, just that our offensive line will flat out dominate this conference.

You've had SEC looking lineman for years...it hasn't translated to wins in this series yet. So I agree with your conclusion that it doesn't mean you will win.

This years OL is by far the best OL we have ever had since I started watching the Cajuns in the late 80’s.

May be the best Cajun OL in years, IDK, haven't been following, so I'll accept your word. But to say that UL's OL is way better than any other in the SB hasn't been following App. Our OL hasn't been stopped past two years.

(10-02-2019 12:05 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 11:56 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Anyone claiming either team is going to dominate the other hasn't watched these two teams. Could either team blow the other one out, sure footballs bounce funny, but I'm expecting a tight and high scoring affair.

I also expect a rowdy crowd.

Not sure that the premise that footballs bounce funny follows the conclusion that either team could blow the other one out. Empirical evidence used to supplement qualitative observations is the best way to go here.

Because your method has been proven to be very successful in the past. People should really be taking you seriously in that regard.
{{{sarcasm off}}}

(10-02-2019 12:05 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 11:56 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Anyone claiming either team is going to dominate the other hasn't watched these two teams. Could either team blow the other one out, sure footballs bounce funny, but I'm expecting a tight and high scoring affair.

I also expect a rowdy crowd.

Not sure that the premise that footballs bounce funny follows the conclusion that either team could blow the other one out. Empirical evidence used to supplement qualitative observations is the best way to go here.

Isn’t there an emperical evidence message board somewhere that could benefit from your expertise and willingness to share it?

(10-02-2019 05:12 PM)CoachWillRob Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 10:24 AM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 09:51 AM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 09:27 AM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 12:05 AM)CajunAmos Wrote:  Cajuns have been playing with two starters out.

There isn’t an OL that’s close to the Cajuns in the SBC. There aren’t many better OL in any G5 league. Just like the Georgia Southern fans last week, they will see when the App DL gets dominated in the same fashion.

That doesn’t mean we will win, just that our offensive line will flat out dominate this conference.

You've had SEC looking lineman for years...it hasn't translated to wins in this series yet. So I agree with your conclusion that it doesn't mean you will win.

This years OL is by far the best OL we have ever had since I started watching the Cajuns in the late 80’s.

May be the best Cajun OL in years, IDK, haven't been following, so I'll accept your word. But to say that UL's OL is way better than any other in the SB hasn't been following App. Our OL hasn't been stopped past two years.

I’m not sure how many times this season that another team fans will doubt what I’m saying. This Cajun offensive line is on a level that the SBC hasn’t seen. They have absolutely dominated every team on the schedule.

It will happen again when we play Appalachian State. It doesn’t matter who lines up against us. We will control the LOS when we are on offense. Georgia Southern had stellar stats against solid competition and we dominated them. Dominated Liberty, dominated Ohio, manhandled Miss St too.

The Cajuns problems are the kicking game and turnovers. If we don’t turn it over, we beat Miss St, embarrass Georgia Southern and Liberty. This program has turned the corner and is in a better position than it has ever been.

You’re self admitted problems are turnovers and kicking game, have you watched App play this year?

(10-02-2019 08:42 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  You’re self admitted problems are turnovers and kicking game, have you watched App play this year?

I’ve watched App play. The offense is impressive and the defense is a work in progress.

We have muffed 3 punts in the last 2 games. Losing all three fumbles. If we don’t do that we beat Georgia Southern 45-14 or so and Liberty by something similar. If we don’t have 16 penalties for nearly 200 yards we crush Ohio.

Bottom line is, sloppy play has kept Cajun opponents in the game way longer than they should have been. We will see what happens next Wednesday, but I really like our chances.

That’s a lot of ifs. If App doesn’t miss tackles we beat everyone by 40...

Obviously missed my prior point. App’s special team play has been great, two blocks punts, a blocked FG, two returns for TDs and quite a few turnovers including two for TDs.

If you’re sloppy versus below average teams (sans MSU) you better right the ship.

Teams just don’t play sloppy, the other team typically impacts or drives “sloppy” play.

I like it to be a close game. This is the best chance ULL has had against App since we joined five years ago.

Can’t argue about how good the OL is for ULL, it’s the best in the SBC and one of the best in the G5, but APPs got the best overall offense in the SBC, no one, including the Heels has been able to shut us down, just too many weapons to stop. However, ULL might have the perfect offense to stop APPs offense, if Zak and company are on the sidelines, they can’t hurt you, and that what scares me the most, GS has a very good DL, but ULL averaged, per you guys, 7 yds a carry, very impressive, to me this game will be decided on 3rd down, if ULL is consistently in 3rd and 2,3, then I don’t think APP’s offense will get enough touches to win the game.

(10-02-2019 05:45 PM)FrankyP Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 12:05 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 11:56 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Anyone claiming either team is going to dominate the other hasn't watched these two teams. Could either team blow the other one out, sure footballs bounce funny, but I'm expecting a tight and high scoring affair.

I also expect a rowdy crowd.

Not sure that the premise that footballs bounce funny follows the conclusion that either team could blow the other one out. Empirical evidence used to supplement qualitative observations is the best way to go here.

Because your method has been proven to be very successful in the past. People should really be taking you seriously in that regard.
{{{sarcasm off}}}

It's all a crapshoot. But blaming a blowout on the football's shape is the best way to go...lets flip a football for it

[[sarcasm off]]]

I'll ship some paper bags to NOLA for you.

New low for Eric on this thread. Sorry folks.

(10-02-2019 08:58 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 08:42 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  You’re self admitted problems are turnovers and kicking game, have you watched App play this year?

I’ve watched App play. The offense is impressive and the defense is a work in progress.

We have muffed 3 punts in the last 2 games. Losing all three fumbles. If we don’t do that we beat Georgia Southern 45-14 or so and Liberty by something similar. If we don’t have 16 penalties for nearly 200 yards we crush Ohio.

Bottom line is, sloppy play has kept Cajun opponents in the game way longer than they should have been. We will see what happens next Wednesday, but I really like our chances.

But you lost three fumbles and had 16 penalties. The results are what they are.

App has forced 1, 2, 3 (with an additional forced fumble that wasn't recovered), and 1 turnovers.

Louisiana's best win is against S&P+ 91 Liberty where you gave up 5.1 YPC and 357 yards total and 20 first downs. The defining stat of that game appears to be that you held them to 2-11 on 3rd Down. That's how you win a game.

The Ohio game was 31-25 until 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter. You mention the issues that Louisiana's penalties caused by Ohio's QB threw 3 interceptions and fumbled once while they lost 5 turnovers total. Louisiana scores to go up 38-25 and Ohio fumbles giving Louisiana a short field to run the score up a bit to 45-25. Well done. Not sure if the QB play was that bad or Louisiana's defense is improved, but the tape will tell. You had 16 penalties for 161 yards, not 200.

The average ranked rushing defense you've played against is 89.25. Georgia Southern's ranking is 50th while Liberty's (your highest output this season other than your NAIA opponents' ranking is 121). GS's giving up the least number of rushing yards per carry but they also played two Air Raid type teams and Maine before playing Louisiana, deflating their number.

As for the numbers that count on defense, Louisiana is giving up 4.43 yards per carry while App is giving up 4.34. Lousiana's passing defense checks in at allowing 10.85 yards per completion while App is giving up around 12 per completion. The average ranking of passing offense Louisiana has faced is 89.5 while App is at 83.

Louisiana is No. 102 in first downs given up at 105 (surprise that Liberty is also 102 with 105) while App is 65th with 91.


The biggest area of regression for App has been Red Zone defense. Allowing scores on 92.9% of Red Zone drives now. Louisiana sits at 80%. App is 15th in Red Zone offense, having scored on 95% of opportunities (19/20) while Louisiana is at 84.4% (27/32)

And the kicker, and what will decide the game, I believe, is turnover margin. Thus far, App sits at +5 with an average margin of +1.25 per game. Louisiana is -1 with an average of -0.20 per game.

Seems both teams will likely score within the Red Zone, App will get their stops on 1st down behind the line on running plays and then give up big passing plays over the top while trying to blitz. Once or two Louisiana may be intercepted or a fumble forced. Probably comes down to who makes a stop or two early on and if the other team can convert those opportunities to points.

(10-03-2019 01:40 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 08:58 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 08:42 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  You’re self admitted problems are turnovers and kicking game, have you watched App play this year?

I’ve watched App play. The offense is impressive and the defense is a work in progress.

We have muffed 3 punts in the last 2 games. Losing all three fumbles. If we don’t do that we beat Georgia Southern 45-14 or so and Liberty by something similar. If we don’t have 16 penalties for nearly 200 yards we crush Ohio.

Bottom line is, sloppy play has kept Cajun opponents in the game way longer than they should have been. We will see what happens next Wednesday, but I really like our chances.

But you lost three fumbles and had 16 penalties. The results are what they are.

App has forced 1, 2, 3 (with an additional forced fumble that wasn't recovered), and 1 turnovers.

Louisiana's best win is against S&P+ 91 Liberty where you gave up 5.1 YPC and 357 yards total and 20 first downs. The defining stat of that game appears to be that you held them to 2-11 on 3rd Down. That's how you win a game.

The Ohio game was 31-25 until 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter. You mention the issues that Louisiana's penalties caused by Ohio's QB threw 3 interceptions and fumbled once while they lost 5 turnovers total. Louisiana scores to go up 38-25 and Ohio fumbles giving Louisiana a short field to run the score up a bit to 45-25. Well done. Not sure if the QB play was that bad or Louisiana's defense is improved, but the tape will tell. You had 16 penalties for 161 yards, not 200.

The average ranked rushing defense you've played against is 89.25. Georgia Southern's ranking is 50th while Liberty's (your highest output this season other than your NAIA opponents' ranking is 121). GS's giving up the least number of rushing yards per carry but they also played two Air Raid type teams and Maine before playing Louisiana, deflating their number.

As for the numbers that count on defense, Louisiana is giving up 4.43 yards per carry while App is giving up 4.34. Lousiana's passing defense checks in at allowing 10.85 yards per completion while App is giving up around 12 per completion. The average ranking of passing offense Louisiana has faced is 89.5 while App is at 83.

Louisiana is No. 102 in first downs given up at 105 (surprise that Liberty is also 102 with 105) while App is 65th with 91.


The biggest area of regression for App has been Red Zone defense. Allowing scores on 92.9% of Red Zone drives now. Louisiana sits at 80%. App is 15th in Red Zone offense, having scored on 95% of opportunities (19/20) while Louisiana is at 84.4% (27/32)

And the kicker, and what will decide the game, I believe, is turnover margin. Thus far, App sits at +5 with an average margin of +1.25 per game. Louisiana is -1 with an average of -0.20 per game.

Seems both teams will likely score within the Red Zone, App will get their stops on 1st down behind the line on running plays and then give up big passing plays over the top while trying to blitz. Once or two Louisiana may be intercepted or a fumble forced. Probably comes down to who makes a stop or two early on and if the other team can convert those opportunities to points.

So you’re saying that App will stop the Cajun running game on first down? With stops behind the LOS?

This will be a repeat of last week. The Cajuns will dominate the App Defense. The only difference is the Mountaineers have the best QB in the SBC and he will tear us up. This game is going to be close.

(10-03-2019 01:50 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(10-03-2019 01:40 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 08:58 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 08:42 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  You’re self admitted problems are turnovers and kicking game, have you watched App play this year?

I’ve watched App play. The offense is impressive and the defense is a work in progress.

We have muffed 3 punts in the last 2 games. Losing all three fumbles. If we don’t do that we beat Georgia Southern 45-14 or so and Liberty by something similar. If we don’t have 16 penalties for nearly 200 yards we crush Ohio.

Bottom line is, sloppy play has kept Cajun opponents in the game way longer than they should have been. We will see what happens next Wednesday, but I really like our chances.

But you lost three fumbles and had 16 penalties. The results are what they are.

App has forced 1, 2, 3 (with an additional forced fumble that wasn't recovered), and 1 turnovers.

Louisiana's best win is against S&P+ 91 Liberty where you gave up 5.1 YPC and 357 yards total and 20 first downs. The defining stat of that game appears to be that you held them to 2-11 on 3rd Down. That's how you win a game.

The Ohio game was 31-25 until 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter. You mention the issues that Louisiana's penalties caused by Ohio's QB threw 3 interceptions and fumbled once while they lost 5 turnovers total. Louisiana scores to go up 38-25 and Ohio fumbles giving Louisiana a short field to run the score up a bit to 45-25. Well done. Not sure if the QB play was that bad or Louisiana's defense is improved, but the tape will tell. You had 16 penalties for 161 yards, not 200.

The average ranked rushing defense you've played against is 89.25. Georgia Southern's ranking is 50th while Liberty's (your highest output this season other than your NAIA opponents' ranking is 121). GS's giving up the least number of rushing yards per carry but they also played two Air Raid type teams and Maine before playing Louisiana, deflating their number.

As for the numbers that count on defense, Louisiana is giving up 4.43 yards per carry while App is giving up 4.34. Lousiana's passing defense checks in at allowing 10.85 yards per completion while App is giving up around 12 per completion. The average ranking of passing offense Louisiana has faced is 89.5 while App is at 83.

Louisiana is No. 102 in first downs given up at 105 (surprise that Liberty is also 102 with 105) while App is 65th with 91.


The biggest area of regression for App has been Red Zone defense. Allowing scores on 92.9% of Red Zone drives now. Louisiana sits at 80%. App is 15th in Red Zone offense, having scored on 95% of opportunities (19/20) while Louisiana is at 84.4% (27/32)

And the kicker, and what will decide the game, I believe, is turnover margin. Thus far, App sits at +5 with an average margin of +1.25 per game. Louisiana is -1 with an average of -0.20 per game.

Seems both teams will likely score within the Red Zone, App will get their stops on 1st down behind the line on running plays and then give up big passing plays over the top while trying to blitz. Once or two Louisiana may be intercepted or a fumble forced. Probably comes down to who makes a stop or two early on and if the other team can convert those opportunities to points.

So you’re saying that App will stop the Cajun running game on first down? With stops behind the LOS?

This will be a repeat of last week. The Cajuns will dominate the App Defense. The only difference is the Mountaineers have the best QB in the SBC and he will tear us up. This game is going to be close.

This is setting up for someone to have a healthy serving of Crow.

(10-03-2019 02:05 PM)AppManDG Wrote:  

(10-03-2019 01:50 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(10-03-2019 01:40 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 08:58 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 08:42 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  You’re self admitted problems are turnovers and kicking game, have you watched App play this year?

I’ve watched App play. The offense is impressive and the defense is a work in progress.

We have muffed 3 punts in the last 2 games. Losing all three fumbles. If we don’t do that we beat Georgia Southern 45-14 or so and Liberty by something similar. If we don’t have 16 penalties for nearly 200 yards we crush Ohio.

Bottom line is, sloppy play has kept Cajun opponents in the game way longer than they should have been. We will see what happens next Wednesday, but I really like our chances.

But you lost three fumbles and had 16 penalties. The results are what they are.

App has forced 1, 2, 3 (with an additional forced fumble that wasn't recovered), and 1 turnovers.

Louisiana's best win is against S&P+ 91 Liberty where you gave up 5.1 YPC and 357 yards total and 20 first downs. The defining stat of that game appears to be that you held them to 2-11 on 3rd Down. That's how you win a game.

The Ohio game was 31-25 until 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter. You mention the issues that Louisiana's penalties caused by Ohio's QB threw 3 interceptions and fumbled once while they lost 5 turnovers total. Louisiana scores to go up 38-25 and Ohio fumbles giving Louisiana a short field to run the score up a bit to 45-25. Well done. Not sure if the QB play was that bad or Louisiana's defense is improved, but the tape will tell. You had 16 penalties for 161 yards, not 200.

The average ranked rushing defense you've played against is 89.25. Georgia Southern's ranking is 50th while Liberty's (your highest output this season other than your NAIA opponents' ranking is 121). GS's giving up the least number of rushing yards per carry but they also played two Air Raid type teams and Maine before playing Louisiana, deflating their number.

As for the numbers that count on defense, Louisiana is giving up 4.43 yards per carry while App is giving up 4.34. Lousiana's passing defense checks in at allowing 10.85 yards per completion while App is giving up around 12 per completion. The average ranking of passing offense Louisiana has faced is 89.5 while App is at 83.

Louisiana is No. 102 in first downs given up at 105 (surprise that Liberty is also 102 with 105) while App is 65th with 91.


The biggest area of regression for App has been Red Zone defense. Allowing scores on 92.9% of Red Zone drives now. Louisiana sits at 80%. App is 15th in Red Zone offense, having scored on 95% of opportunities (19/20) while Louisiana is at 84.4% (27/32)

And the kicker, and what will decide the game, I believe, is turnover margin. Thus far, App sits at +5 with an average margin of +1.25 per game. Louisiana is -1 with an average of -0.20 per game.

Seems both teams will likely score within the Red Zone, App will get their stops on 1st down behind the line on running plays and then give up big passing plays over the top while trying to blitz. Once or two Louisiana may be intercepted or a fumble forced. Probably comes down to who makes a stop or two early on and if the other team can convert those opportunities to points.

So you’re saying that App will stop the Cajun running game on first down? With stops behind the LOS?

This will be a repeat of last week. The Cajuns will dominate the App Defense. The only difference is the Mountaineers have the best QB in the SBC and he will tear us up. This game is going to be close.

This is setting up for someone to have a healthy serving of Crow.

Yup, just like last week.

Louisiana: Gets mad when people call them something other than Louisiana.

Also Louisiana:

https://twitter.com/RaginCajuns/status/1...32865?s=19

(10-03-2019 02:13 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(10-03-2019 02:05 PM)AppManDG Wrote:  

(10-03-2019 01:50 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(10-03-2019 01:40 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 08:58 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  I’ve watched App play. The offense is impressive and the defense is a work in progress.

We have muffed 3 punts in the last 2 games. Losing all three fumbles. If we don’t do that we beat Georgia Southern 45-14 or so and Liberty by something similar. If we don’t have 16 penalties for nearly 200 yards we crush Ohio.

Bottom line is, sloppy play has kept Cajun opponents in the game way longer than they should have been. We will see what happens next Wednesday, but I really like our chances.

But you lost three fumbles and had 16 penalties. The results are what they are.

App has forced 1, 2, 3 (with an additional forced fumble that wasn't recovered), and 1 turnovers.

Louisiana's best win is against S&P+ 91 Liberty where you gave up 5.1 YPC and 357 yards total and 20 first downs. The defining stat of that game appears to be that you held them to 2-11 on 3rd Down. That's how you win a game.

The Ohio game was 31-25 until 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter. You mention the issues that Louisiana's penalties caused by Ohio's QB threw 3 interceptions and fumbled once while they lost 5 turnovers total. Louisiana scores to go up 38-25 and Ohio fumbles giving Louisiana a short field to run the score up a bit to 45-25. Well done. Not sure if the QB play was that bad or Louisiana's defense is improved, but the tape will tell. You had 16 penalties for 161 yards, not 200.

The average ranked rushing defense you've played against is 89.25. Georgia Southern's ranking is 50th while Liberty's (your highest output this season other than your NAIA opponents' ranking is 121). GS's giving up the least number of rushing yards per carry but they also played two Air Raid type teams and Maine before playing Louisiana, deflating their number.

As for the numbers that count on defense, Louisiana is giving up 4.43 yards per carry while App is giving up 4.34. Lousiana's passing defense checks in at allowing 10.85 yards per completion while App is giving up around 12 per completion. The average ranking of passing offense Louisiana has faced is 89.5 while App is at 83.

Louisiana is No. 102 in first downs given up at 105 (surprise that Liberty is also 102 with 105) while App is 65th with 91.


The biggest area of regression for App has been Red Zone defense. Allowing scores on 92.9% of Red Zone drives now. Louisiana sits at 80%. App is 15th in Red Zone offense, having scored on 95% of opportunities (19/20) while Louisiana is at 84.4% (27/32)

And the kicker, and what will decide the game, I believe, is turnover margin. Thus far, App sits at +5 with an average margin of +1.25 per game. Louisiana is -1 with an average of -0.20 per game.

Seems both teams will likely score within the Red Zone, App will get their stops on 1st down behind the line on running plays and then give up big passing plays over the top while trying to blitz. Once or two Louisiana may be intercepted or a fumble forced. Probably comes down to who makes a stop or two early on and if the other team can convert those opportunities to points.

So you’re saying that App will stop the Cajun running game on first down? With stops behind the LOS?

This will be a repeat of last week. The Cajuns will dominate the App Defense. The only difference is the Mountaineers have the best QB in the SBC and he will tear us up. This game is going to be close.

This is setting up for someone to have a healthy serving of Crow.

Yup, just like last week.

I admitted I was wrong last week. But it wasn't so much about Southern's defense as it was their offense. Any defense would wear down with an offense operating as inefficiently as Southern's has been thus far this season.

I also haven't given a score prediction on this thread. I said it probably comes down to whoever makes stops and capitalizes on them because I suspect there will be quite a few points scored.

Where Louisiana may get in trouble is with App's scoring proficiency. Beating ETSU (decent FCS, not great) 42-7, having a 42-20 lead over Charlotte, a 27-10 lead over UNC, and a 42-21 and then 56-30 (game should've ended that way but App had 2 - 4th string guys in) against Coastal shows that the team is used to playing with a lead.

App gave up the first score to both Coastal and UNC. Against UNC, App then went on a 27-3 run. Against Coastal, App gave up the first 7 and then outscored Coastal 35-14 to close the half.

Like I've said, App's defense seems to have regressed on paper, and they have. But the offensive improvement has, by and large, cancelled out some of those issues.

App lives and dies by the ability to blitz. It appears Roof prefers to stop the run and force the opposing team to pass. Incorrect lane filling by safeties and linebackers has resulted in some longer runs for the opposing team (overpursuit). Teams have only had 20 RedZone trips against App which is a fairly telling stat about how App's defense has played. While the defense isn't stopping the opposing team in the Red Zone, they are stopping them earlier in the drive or giving up a score.

But to your point, Louisiana hasn't played a defensive line like App's. The issue you guys had in the past was that App was smaller, faster, and more athletic than the line you were fielding. The only issue this season is that they is no true 0-tech on the roster leading to Fehr getting caught up by guards too often. However, App is still averaging 7 tackles for loss per game meaning that they are blitzing and playing close to the line of scrimmage effectively, at times.

If App hits their average on TFL's and sacks, they win. If App forces Louisiana into obvious passing situations, they win. I'm not sure what UL has to do to win other than make the offense far less efficient for App than it's been. Under Satterfield, if App got into 2nd and long or 3rd and long, you'd cringe because they didn't convert as often. Under Drink there appears to be any number of offensive options to go with in the passing game to get there. He also hasn't really relied on Zac to run yet, but i'm sure those plays are available if Louisiana tries playing a lot of man defense and is successful in their coverage.

So key questions I have are this:

1. What is Louisiana's base defense?
2. What is it's strengths (qualititative, I can read stats)?
3. What are it's weaknesses?
   

(10-03-2019 01:50 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(10-03-2019 01:40 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 08:58 PM)geauxcajuns Wrote:  

(10-02-2019 08:42 PM)Saint3333 Wrote:  You’re self admitted problems are turnovers and kicking game, have you watched App play this year?

I’ve watched App play. The offense is impressive and the defense is a work in progress.

We have muffed 3 punts in the last 2 games. Losing all three fumbles. If we don’t do that we beat Georgia Southern 45-14 or so and Liberty by something similar. If we don’t have 16 penalties for nearly 200 yards we crush Ohio.

Bottom line is, sloppy play has kept Cajun opponents in the game way longer than they should have been. We will see what happens next Wednesday, but I really like our chances.

But you lost three fumbles and had 16 penalties. The results are what they are.

App has forced 1, 2, 3 (with an additional forced fumble that wasn't recovered), and 1 turnovers.

Louisiana's best win is against S&P+ 91 Liberty where you gave up 5.1 YPC and 357 yards total and 20 first downs. The defining stat of that game appears to be that you held them to 2-11 on 3rd Down. That's how you win a game.

The Ohio game was 31-25 until 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter. You mention the issues that Louisiana's penalties caused by Ohio's QB threw 3 interceptions and fumbled once while they lost 5 turnovers total. Louisiana scores to go up 38-25 and Ohio fumbles giving Louisiana a short field to run the score up a bit to 45-25. Well done. Not sure if the QB play was that bad or Louisiana's defense is improved, but the tape will tell. You had 16 penalties for 161 yards, not 200.

The average ranked rushing defense you've played against is 89.25. Georgia Southern's ranking is 50th while Liberty's (your highest output this season other than your NAIA opponents' ranking is 121). GS's giving up the least number of rushing yards per carry but they also played two Air Raid type teams and Maine before playing Louisiana, deflating their number.

As for the numbers that count on defense, Louisiana is giving up 4.43 yards per carry while App is giving up 4.34. Lousiana's passing defense checks in at allowing 10.85 yards per completion while App is giving up around 12 per completion. The average ranking of passing offense Louisiana has faced is 89.5 while App is at 83.

Louisiana is No. 102 in first downs given up at 105 (surprise that Liberty is also 102 with 105) while App is 65th with 91.


The biggest area of regression for App has been Red Zone defense. Allowing scores on 92.9% of Red Zone drives now. Louisiana sits at 80%. App is 15th in Red Zone offense, having scored on 95% of opportunities (19/20) while Louisiana is at 84.4% (27/32)

And the kicker, and what will decide the game, I believe, is turnover margin. Thus far, App sits at +5 with an average margin of +1.25 per game. Louisiana is -1 with an average of -0.20 per game.

Seems both teams will likely score within the Red Zone, App will get their stops on 1st down behind the line on running plays and then give up big passing plays over the top while trying to blitz. Once or two Louisiana may be intercepted or a fumble forced. Probably comes down to who makes a stop or two early on and if the other team can convert those opportunities to points.

So you’re saying that App will stop the Cajun running game on first down? With stops behind the LOS?

This will be a repeat of last week. The Cajuns will dominate the App Defense. The only difference is the Mountaineers have the best QB in the SBC and he will tear us up. This game is going to be close.

And if Zac tears your defense up, I doubt you all win. App has the ability to play ball control through the air unlike before. Running game isn't as efficient but Evans is still the best all purpose back in the conference.

Yo guys are putting way too much thought into this, this one is simple, if ULL runs on APP’s defense like they have on everyone else’s defenses, then ULL wins this game, if APP’s defense can get the ULL offense off the field then it’s unlikely ULL defense will stop APP and APP wins.

The team that slows down the other offense (not likely that either offense will be stopped) and benefits from turnover(s) will win the game.