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C1ncy4Life Offline
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Post: #61
RE: College Football Week 5
(09-30-2019 08:05 PM)eroc Wrote:  
(09-30-2019 05:19 PM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 07:45 PM)eroc Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 07:20 PM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 06:22 AM)eroc Wrote:  A good Nebraska team? They let the Illini put up 38 points on them. in general the b10 is overrated, again; and it's hard to tell how good any of their ranked teams are. i'm sure osu is good, even top 5 worthy. Best in the nation? Hard to tell since they haven't been tested.

I guess it all depends on your definition of what a good team is. Nebraska may not be anything special, but in my opinion they are a good team.

I wouldn’t say the B10 is any over rated than any other conference outside the SEC. Would you take the PAC 12 over the B10? The ACC over the B10? The B12? The second best conference IMO with some very good second tier teams outside OSU. Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc...

Let me clarify. When i say the b10 is overrated i mean that pollsters have inflated the quality of their members. Therefore, this isn't about whether i would take any other conference over the b10. Out of curiosity, if Nebraska is good team what does that make Illinois in your opinion?

Illinois is average at best, but definitely not good. I’m not going to put a lot of stock in a team coming close at home.

A lot of people picked Nebraska to win the B10 West this year in the preseason. Seemed a bit far fetched to me, but they are a good team, with some solid young players. My guess is they will struggle some on the road and against very good-elite teams, which is what we’ve pretty much seen from them this year.

As far as pollsters inflating B10 teams, isn’t that what they do with all P5 teams in general outside the elite teams?

...in that the top 25 is comprised almost exclusively of p5 teams and ND, i reckon the answer is yes? 03-confused03-confused

Right, so I don’t get the point in singling out the B10, when it’s really the case for all of the Power conferences. Big 10 is one of the less egregious (behind the SEC, IMO). The pollsters keep trying to rank different, questionable P12 teams to have them lose the very next week.
 
09-30-2019 10:23 PM
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eroc Offline
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Post: #62
RE: College Football Week 5
(09-30-2019 10:23 PM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  
(09-30-2019 08:05 PM)eroc Wrote:  
(09-30-2019 05:19 PM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 07:45 PM)eroc Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 07:20 PM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  I guess it all depends on your definition of what a good team is. Nebraska may not be anything special, but in my opinion they are a good team.

I wouldn’t say the B10 is any over rated than any other conference outside the SEC. Would you take the PAC 12 over the B10? The ACC over the B10? The B12? The second best conference IMO with some very good second tier teams outside OSU. Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc...

Let me clarify. When i say the b10 is overrated i mean that pollsters have inflated the quality of their members. Therefore, this isn't about whether i would take any other conference over the b10. Out of curiosity, if Nebraska is good team what does that make Illinois in your opinion?

Illinois is average at best, but definitely not good. I’m not going to put a lot of stock in a team coming close at home.

A lot of people picked Nebraska to win the B10 West this year in the preseason. Seemed a bit far fetched to me, but they are a good team, with some solid young players. My guess is they will struggle some on the road and against very good-elite teams, which is what we’ve pretty much seen from them this year.

As far as pollsters inflating B10 teams, isn’t that what they do with all P5 teams in general outside the elite teams?

...in that the top 25 is comprised almost exclusively of p5 teams and ND, i reckon the answer is yes? 03-confused03-confused

Right, so I don’t get the point in singling out the B10, when it’s really the case for all of the Power conferences. Big 10 is one of the less egregious (behind the SEC, IMO). The pollsters keep trying to rank different, questionable P12 teams to have them lose the very next week.

Because more so then most conferences they tend to get more teams that are not top 25 caliber into the top 25, and the top 25 caliber teams that they do have tend to be overrated in terms of their ranking. We obviously disagree about this and you have to look no further then our perspectives on Nebraska to see that so i don't see this debate going much further. Honestly, until there is a broader sample size to allow for a more accurate assessment of conference strength relative to one another to even have a national ranking seems somewhat silly but these are the games we play.
 
10-01-2019 06:43 AM
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OKIcat Offline
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Post: #63
RE: College Football Week 5
(09-29-2019 07:45 PM)eroc Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 07:20 PM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 06:22 AM)eroc Wrote:  
(09-28-2019 08:04 PM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  
(09-28-2019 08:03 PM)Nobones Wrote:  38 to 0 now with 1:34 left in 1st half.

Another important factor is that we lost 42-0 AT Ohio’s State. A good Nebraska team is down 38-0 in first half at Nebraska. Who knows if it means much, but hopefully thy bodes well for the rest of our season!

A good Nebraska team? They let the Illini put up 38 points on them. in general the b10 is overrated, again; and it's hard to tell how good any of their ranked teams are. i'm sure osu is good, even top 5 worthy. Best in the nation? Hard to tell since they haven't been tested.

I guess it all depends on your definition of what a good team is. Nebraska may not be anything special, but in my opinion they are a good team.

I wouldn’t say the B10 is any over rated than any other conference outside the SEC. Would you take the PAC 12 over the B10? The ACC over the B10? The B12? The second best conference IMO with some very good second tier teams outside OSU. Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc...

Let me clarify. When i say the b10 is overrated i mean that pollsters have inflated the quality of their members. Therefore, this isn't about whether i would take any other conference over the b10. Out of curiosity, if Nebraska is good team what does that make Illinois in your opinion?

Bolded, I think this is correct. Using just one objective measure, national championships, it's been 22 years since a B10 school not named Ohio State has won. During that same period, four different SEC schools won the title. Even the ACC (and I know some local B10 fans who look down their noses thinking it an inferior conference to theirs) has three member schools that captured national championships during this same period (Miami FL was still in the Big East when they won).

All of this is not to say the B10 doesn't have some excellent teams near the top most seasons. But we've also watched pre-conference in recent years with IU, Purdue, and IL losing to MAC teams; Michigan, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska and Rutgers losing to some other G5 programs. I don't see that happening as regularly in the SEC or ACC.

Bottom line: the B10 gets too much love in the polls. Compare Michigan's wins and losses this season to "others receiving votes" and the case is clear. The power of a brand, both for that school and the conference overall.
 
(This post was last modified: 10-01-2019 07:13 AM by OKIcat.)
10-01-2019 07:12 AM
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RealDeal Offline
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Post: #64
RE: College Football Week 5
(10-01-2019 07:12 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  Bolded, I think this is correct. Using just one objective measure, national championships, it's been 22 years since a B10 school not named Ohio State has won. During that same period, four different SEC schools won the title. Even the ACC (and I know some local B10 fans who look down their noses thinking it an inferior conference to theirs) has three member schools that captured national championships during this same period (Miami FL was still in the Big East when they won).

All of this is not to say the B10 doesn't have some excellent teams near the top most seasons. But we've also watched pre-conference in recent years with IU, Purdue, and IL losing to MAC teams; Michigan, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska and Rutgers losing to some other G5 programs. I don't see that happening as regularly in the SEC or ACC.

Bottom line: the B10 gets too much love in the polls. Compare Michigan's wins and losses this season to "others receiving votes" and the case is clear. The power of a brand, both for that school and the conference overall.

I hate the B10 and think they're overrated too but human rankings are really tough. We were 11-2 last year and our computer metrics were what in the 40-60 range? Until you're willing to put the 5-7 SEC team in the top 25 you're going to have overrated teams in the polls. I'm not arguing for going straight analytics but I think for a more meaningful human polls you need to start with the analytics and make common sense human adjustments off of that.

I mean we finished ranked last year, right? In no way were we a top 25 team last year.
 
10-01-2019 08:05 AM
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C1ncy4Life Offline
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Post: #65
RE: College Football Week 5
(10-01-2019 06:43 AM)eroc Wrote:  
(09-30-2019 10:23 PM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  
(09-30-2019 08:05 PM)eroc Wrote:  
(09-30-2019 05:19 PM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 07:45 PM)eroc Wrote:  Let me clarify. When i say the b10 is overrated i mean that pollsters have inflated the quality of their members. Therefore, this isn't about whether i would take any other conference over the b10. Out of curiosity, if Nebraska is good team what does that make Illinois in your opinion?

Illinois is average at best, but definitely not good. I’m not going to put a lot of stock in a team coming close at home.

A lot of people picked Nebraska to win the B10 West this year in the preseason. Seemed a bit far fetched to me, but they are a good team, with some solid young players. My guess is they will struggle some on the road and against very good-elite teams, which is what we’ve pretty much seen from them this year.

As far as pollsters inflating B10 teams, isn’t that what they do with all P5 teams in general outside the elite teams?

...in that the top 25 is comprised almost exclusively of p5 teams and ND, i reckon the answer is yes? 03-confused03-confused

Right, so I don’t get the point in singling out the B10, when it’s really the case for all of the Power conferences. Big 10 is one of the less egregious (behind the SEC, IMO). The pollsters keep trying to rank different, questionable P12 teams to have them lose the very next week.

Because more so then most conferences they tend to get more teams that are not top 25 caliber into the top 25, and the top 25 caliber teams that they do have tend to be overrated in terms of their ranking. We obviously disagree about this and you have to look no further then our perspectives on Nebraska to see that so i don't see this debate going much further. Honestly, until there is a broader sample size to allow for a more accurate assessment of conference strength relative to one another to even have a national ranking seems somewhat silly but these are the games we play.

Yea, I disagree with that when we have 4 Pac 12 teams currently ranked and I believe we’ve had 7 Pac 12 teams ranked this year. The pollsters are trying to prop up each Power conference and the B10 is far from the most egregious.

Does the B10 enjoy inflated polling numbers? Sure, but so does all P5 conferences outside maybe the SEC, though I’d argue they do as well towards the bottom of the Top 25 most years.
 
(This post was last modified: 10-01-2019 12:43 PM by C1ncy4Life.)
10-01-2019 12:41 PM
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C1ncy4Life Offline
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Post: #66
RE: College Football Week 5
(10-01-2019 07:12 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 07:45 PM)eroc Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 07:20 PM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 06:22 AM)eroc Wrote:  
(09-28-2019 08:04 PM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  Another important factor is that we lost 42-0 AT Ohio’s State. A good Nebraska team is down 38-0 in first half at Nebraska. Who knows if it means much, but hopefully thy bodes well for the rest of our season!

A good Nebraska team? They let the Illini put up 38 points on them. in general the b10 is overrated, again; and it's hard to tell how good any of their ranked teams are. i'm sure osu is good, even top 5 worthy. Best in the nation? Hard to tell since they haven't been tested.

I guess it all depends on your definition of what a good team is. Nebraska may not be anything special, but in my opinion they are a good team.

I wouldn’t say the B10 is any over rated than any other conference outside the SEC. Would you take the PAC 12 over the B10? The ACC over the B10? The B12? The second best conference IMO with some very good second tier teams outside OSU. Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc...

Let me clarify. When i say the b10 is overrated i mean that pollsters have inflated the quality of their members. Therefore, this isn't about whether i would take any other conference over the b10. Out of curiosity, if Nebraska is good team what does that make Illinois in your opinion?

Bolded, I think this is correct. Using just one objective measure, national championships, it's been 22 years since a B10 school not named Ohio State has won. During that same period, four different SEC schools won the title. Even the ACC (and I know some local B10 fans who look down their noses thinking it an inferior conference to theirs) has three member schools that captured national championships during this same period (Miami FL was still in the Big East when they won).

All of this is not to say the B10 doesn't have some excellent teams near the top most seasons. But we've also watched pre-conference in recent years with IU, Purdue, and IL losing to MAC teams; Michigan, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska and Rutgers losing to some other G5 programs. I don't see that happening as regularly in the SEC or ACC.

Bottom line: the B10 gets too much love in the polls. Compare Michigan's wins and losses this season to "others receiving votes" and the case is clear. The power of a brand, both for that school and the conference overall.

The problem with this is you are basing the entire Top 25 on who is National Championship capable. Typically there are MAYBE 5-6 teams that can be considered championship capable, but more realistically I’d say the number is under 4.

That is what, 20% of the entire poll?

Again, I’m not arguing the B10 gets propped up. I’m saying all P5 conferences do and just because the B10 only has one team that has won the Championship doesn’t change that IMo.
 
(This post was last modified: 10-01-2019 12:49 PM by C1ncy4Life.)
10-01-2019 12:48 PM
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Post: #67
RE: College Football Week 5
(10-01-2019 07:12 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 07:45 PM)eroc Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 07:20 PM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  
(09-29-2019 06:22 AM)eroc Wrote:  
(09-28-2019 08:04 PM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  Another important factor is that we lost 42-0 AT Ohio’s State. A good Nebraska team is down 38-0 in first half at Nebraska. Who knows if it means much, but hopefully thy bodes well for the rest of our season!

A good Nebraska team? They let the Illini put up 38 points on them. in general the b10 is overrated, again; and it's hard to tell how good any of their ranked teams are. i'm sure osu is good, even top 5 worthy. Best in the nation? Hard to tell since they haven't been tested.

I guess it all depends on your definition of what a good team is. Nebraska may not be anything special, but in my opinion they are a good team.

I wouldn’t say the B10 is any over rated than any other conference outside the SEC. Would you take the PAC 12 over the B10? The ACC over the B10? The B12? The second best conference IMO with some very good second tier teams outside OSU. Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc...

Let me clarify. When i say the b10 is overrated i mean that pollsters have inflated the quality of their members. Therefore, this isn't about whether i would take any other conference over the b10. Out of curiosity, if Nebraska is good team what does that make Illinois in your opinion?

Bolded, I think this is correct. Using just one objective measure, national championships, it's been 22 years since a B10 school not named Ohio State has won. During that same period, four different SEC schools won the title. Even the ACC (and I know some local B10 fans who look down their noses thinking it an inferior conference to theirs) has three member schools that captured national championships during this same period (Miami FL was still in the Big East when they won).

All of this is not to say the B10 doesn't have some excellent teams near the top most seasons. But we've also watched pre-conference in recent years with IU, Purdue, and IL losing to MAC teams; Michigan, Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska and Rutgers losing to some other G5 programs. I don't see that happening as regularly in the SEC or ACC.

Bottom line: the B10 gets too much love in the polls. Compare Michigan's wins and losses this season to "others receiving votes" and the case is clear. The power of a brand, both for that school and the conference overall.

Let's not blow 1 Illinois loss to Eastern Michigan out of proportion.

This year, the Big 10 is 13-1 vs the MAC, Sun Belt, and C-USA
The Big 12 is 7-1
The SEC is 10-1
The PAC is 3-0
The ACC is 11-1


You could tell the same story in pretty much any other season except 2018.

In 2018:
Big 10: 12-4 (plus 1 loss to an FCS school)
SEC: 19-1
ACC: 12-1
Big 12: 6-0 (plus 1 loss to an FCS school)
Pac 12: 3-0

In 2017:
Big 10: 14-2
SEC: 17-1
ACC: 14-1
Big 12: 5-3 (plus a loss to an FCS school)
Pac 12: 5-0

In 2016:
Big 10: 9-2 (plus 2 losses to FCS schools)
SEC: 19-3
ACC: 10-0 (plus 1 loss to an FCS school)
Big 12: 5-2 (plus 1 loss to an FCS school)
Pac 12: 4-0 (plus 1 loss to an FCS school)

In 2015:
Big 10: 18-3
SEC: 21-2 (plus 1 loss to an FCS school)
ACC: 9-0
Big 12: 9-1 (plus 1 loss to an FCS school)
Pac 12: 8-0 (plus 1 loss to an FCS school)
 
10-01-2019 01:37 PM
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Post: #68
RE: College Football Week 5
(10-01-2019 07:12 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  Bottom line: the B10 gets too much love in the polls. Compare Michigan's wins and losses this season to "others receiving votes" and the case is clear. The power of a brand, both for that school and the conference overall.

Ok...I'll even throw in everyone below them.

#19 Michigan:
W vs. Middle Tennessee State (1-3) 40-21
W vs. #29 Army (3-1) 24-21
L at #8 Wisconsin (4-0) 35-14
W vs. Rutgers (1-3) 52-0

#20 Arizona State:
W vs. Kent State (2-2) 30-7
W vs. [FCS] Sacramento State (2-2) 19-7
W at #25 Michigan State (4-1) 10-7
L vs. Colorado (3-1) 34-31
W at #26 California (4-1) 24-17

#21 Oklahoma State:
W vs. Oregon State (1-3) 52-36
W vs. [FCS] McNeese State (2-3) 56-14
W at Tulsa (2-2) 40-21
L at #11 Texas (3-1) 36-30
W vs. Kansas State (3-1) 26-13

#22 Wake Forest
W vs. Utah State (3-1) 38-35
W at Rice (0-5) 41-21
W vs. North Carolina (2-3) 24-18
W vs. [FCS] Elon (1-4) 49-7
W at Boston College (3-2) 27-24

#23 Virginia
W at Pitt (3-2) 30-14
W vs. [FCS] William and Mary (2-3) 52-17
W vs. Florida State (3-2) 31-24
W vs. Old Dominion (1-3) 28-17
L at Notre Dame (3-1) 35-20

#24 SMU
W at Arkansas State (3-2) 37-30
W vs. North Texas (2-3) 49-27
W vs. Texas State (2-3) 47-17
W at TCU (3-1) 41-28
W at USF (1-3) 48-21

#25 Texas A&M:
W vs. Texas State (2-3) 41-7
L at #2 Clemson (5-0) 24-10
W vs. [FCS] Lamar (2-3) 62-3
L vs. #7 Auburn (5-0) 28-20
W vs. Arkansas (2-3) 31-27

#25 Michigan State:
W vs. Tulsa (2-2) 28-7
W vs. Western Michigan (3-2) 51-17
L vs. #20 Arizona State (4-1) 10-7
W at Northwestern (1-3) 31-10
W vs. Indiana (3-2) 40-31

#26 California:
W vs. [FCS] Cal-Davis (2-3) 27-13
W at #15 Washington (3-1) 20-19
W vs. North Texas (2-3) 23-17
W. at Mississippi (2-3) 28-20
L vs. #20 Arizona State (4-1) 24-17

#27 Memphis:
W vs. Mississippi (2-3) 15-10
W vs [FCS] Southern (2-3) 55-24
W at South Alabama (1-4) 42-6
W vs. Navy (2-1) 35-23

#28 Appalachian State:
W vs. [FCS] East Tennessee State (1-4) 42-7
W vs. Charlotte (2-3) 56-41
W at North Carolina (2-3) 34-31
W vs. Coastal Carolina (3-2) 56-37

#29 Army:
Lost to Michigan...no point

#30 Missouri:
L at Wyoming (4-1) 37-31
W vs. West Virginia (3-1) 38-7
W vs. [FCS] SE Missouri State (2-2) 50-0



Who are you putting above them in this group? Honestly, I see nothing wrong with where they're ranked.
 
10-01-2019 03:00 PM
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Bruce Monnin Offline
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RE: College Football Week 5
Not many (if any) impressive resumes in that group.
 
10-01-2019 07:15 PM
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eroc Offline
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RE: College Football Week 5
(10-01-2019 03:00 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  
(10-01-2019 07:12 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  Bottom line: the B10 gets too much love in the polls. Compare Michigan's wins and losses this season to "others receiving votes" and the case is clear. The power of a brand, both for that school and the conference overall.

Ok...I'll even throw in everyone below them.

#19 Michigan:
W vs. Middle Tennessee State (1-3) 40-21
W vs. #29 Army (3-1) 24-21
L at #8 Wisconsin (4-0) 35-14
W vs. Rutgers (1-3) 52-0

#20 Arizona State:
W vs. Kent State (2-2) 30-7
W vs. [FCS] Sacramento State (2-2) 19-7
W at #25 Michigan State (4-1) 10-7
L vs. Colorado (3-1) 34-31
W at #26 California (4-1) 24-17

#21 Oklahoma State:
W vs. Oregon State (1-3) 52-36
W vs. [FCS] McNeese State (2-3) 56-14
W at Tulsa (2-2) 40-21
L at #11 Texas (3-1) 36-30
W vs. Kansas State (3-1) 26-13

#22 Wake Forest
W vs. Utah State (3-1) 38-35
W at Rice (0-5) 41-21
W vs. North Carolina (2-3) 24-18
W vs. [FCS] Elon (1-4) 49-7
W at Boston College (3-2) 27-24

#23 Virginia
W at Pitt (3-2) 30-14
W vs. [FCS] William and Mary (2-3) 52-17
W vs. Florida State (3-2) 31-24
W vs. Old Dominion (1-3) 28-17
L at Notre Dame (3-1) 35-20

#24 SMU
W at Arkansas State (3-2) 37-30
W vs. North Texas (2-3) 49-27
W vs. Texas State (2-3) 47-17
W at TCU (3-1) 41-28
W at USF (1-3) 48-21

#25 Texas A&M:
W vs. Texas State (2-3) 41-7
L at #2 Clemson (5-0) 24-10
W vs. [FCS] Lamar (2-3) 62-3
L vs. #7 Auburn (5-0) 28-20
W vs. Arkansas (2-3) 31-27

#25 Michigan State:
W vs. Tulsa (2-2) 28-7
W vs. Western Michigan (3-2) 51-17
L vs. #20 Arizona State (4-1) 10-7
W at Northwestern (1-3) 31-10
W vs. Indiana (3-2) 40-31

#26 California:
W vs. [FCS] Cal-Davis (2-3) 27-13
W at #15 Washington (3-1) 20-19
W vs. North Texas (2-3) 23-17
W. at Mississippi (2-3) 28-20
L vs. #20 Arizona State (4-1) 24-17

#27 Memphis:
W vs. Mississippi (2-3) 15-10
W vs [FCS] Southern (2-3) 55-24
W at South Alabama (1-4) 42-6
W vs. Navy (2-1) 35-23

#28 Appalachian State:
W vs. [FCS] East Tennessee State (1-4) 42-7
W vs. Charlotte (2-3) 56-41
W at North Carolina (2-3) 34-31
W vs. Coastal Carolina (3-2) 56-37

#29 Army:
Lost to Michigan...no point

#30 Missouri:
L at Wyoming (4-1) 37-31
W vs. West Virginia (3-1) 38-7
W vs. [FCS] SE Missouri State (2-2) 50-0



Who are you putting above them in this group? Honestly, I see nothing wrong with where they're ranked.

Arizona State and Wake Forest but i'm not going to die on that hill. For me, Michigan is currently where they are because they started at #7. The question is whether they belonged at #7 to begin with? With the benefit of hindsight, clearly they didn't but even without hindsight #7 seemed high.

Edit: Michigan is the easy target but as i stated in my original post, i'm not so high on Nebraska. i think there are question marks about msu and the jury is out on psu and iowa. i think Wisky is a top 15 team but not top 10.
 
(This post was last modified: 10-01-2019 08:12 PM by eroc.)
10-01-2019 08:10 PM
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OKIcat Offline
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Post: #71
RE: College Football Week 5
(10-01-2019 03:00 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  
(10-01-2019 07:12 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  Bottom line: the B10 gets too much love in the polls. Compare Michigan's wins and losses this season to "others receiving votes" and the case is clear. The power of a brand, both for that school and the conference overall.

Ok...I'll even throw in everyone below them.

#19 Michigan:
W vs. Middle Tennessee State (1-3) 40-21
W vs. #29 Army (3-1) 24-21
L at #8 Wisconsin (4-0) 35-14
W vs. Rutgers (1-3) 52-0

#20 Arizona State:
W vs. Kent State (2-2) 30-7
W vs. [FCS] Sacramento State (2-2) 19-7
W at #25 Michigan State (4-1) 10-7
L vs. Colorado (3-1) 34-31
W at #26 California (4-1) 24-17

#21 Oklahoma State:
W vs. Oregon State (1-3) 52-36
W vs. [FCS] McNeese State (2-3) 56-14
W at Tulsa (2-2) 40-21
L at #11 Texas (3-1) 36-30
W vs. Kansas State (3-1) 26-13

#22 Wake Forest
W vs. Utah State (3-1) 38-35
W at Rice (0-5) 41-21
W vs. North Carolina (2-3) 24-18
W vs. [FCS] Elon (1-4) 49-7
W at Boston College (3-2) 27-24

#23 Virginia
W at Pitt (3-2) 30-14
W vs. [FCS] William and Mary (2-3) 52-17
W vs. Florida State (3-2) 31-24
W vs. Old Dominion (1-3) 28-17
L at Notre Dame (3-1) 35-20

#24 SMU
W at Arkansas State (3-2) 37-30
W vs. North Texas (2-3) 49-27
W vs. Texas State (2-3) 47-17
W at TCU (3-1) 41-28
W at USF (1-3) 48-21

#25 Texas A&M:
W vs. Texas State (2-3) 41-7
L at #2 Clemson (5-0) 24-10
W vs. [FCS] Lamar (2-3) 62-3
L vs. #7 Auburn (5-0) 28-20
W vs. Arkansas (2-3) 31-27

#25 Michigan State:
W vs. Tulsa (2-2) 28-7
W vs. Western Michigan (3-2) 51-17
L vs. #20 Arizona State (4-1) 10-7
W at Northwestern (1-3) 31-10
W vs. Indiana (3-2) 40-31

#26 California:
W vs. [FCS] Cal-Davis (2-3) 27-13
W at #15 Washington (3-1) 20-19
W vs. North Texas (2-3) 23-17
W. at Mississippi (2-3) 28-20
L vs. #20 Arizona State (4-1) 24-17

#27 Memphis:
W vs. Mississippi (2-3) 15-10
W vs [FCS] Southern (2-3) 55-24
W at South Alabama (1-4) 42-6
W vs. Navy (2-1) 35-23

#28 Appalachian State:
W vs. [FCS] East Tennessee State (1-4) 42-7
W vs. Charlotte (2-3) 56-41
W at North Carolina (2-3) 34-31
W vs. Coastal Carolina (3-2) 56-37

#29 Army:
Lost to Michigan...no point

#30 Missouri:
L at Wyoming (4-1) 37-31
W vs. West Virginia (3-1) 38-7
W vs. [FCS] SE Missouri State (2-2) 50-0



Who are you putting above them in this group? Honestly, I see nothing wrong with where they're ranked.

I'd start with #20 ASU--two wins over ranked opponents on the road vs. zero for MI. Even #24 SMU beat a TCU team that was ranked when they played, on the road no less.

The better question was posed in the subsequent post--why was MI ever #7 to begin with? Almost entirely because of the historical brand. Harbaugh's record against OSU and other ranked opponents has been pretty awful. Were they preseason ranked because of a great finish in 2018? I think not as they lost again to OSU and dropped their bowl game to South Carolina.

I think the MI ranking problem takes care of itself as soon as they play a B10 team with a pulse. Ultimately, the human polls do self correct. And while I have singled out MI, we've seen this happen with other historically strong programs such as Florida State, Notre Dame and Miami (FL). Lots of love preseason only to fall flat.

It's just a poll of course. But if UCF had a #7 preseason ranking for one of their undefeated seasons maybe they would have had a shot at rising to the CFP. Starting the season outside the top 8 spots makes the pathway almost impossible, even for a P5 to break into what has turned out to be the 'Bama and Clemson Show.
 
10-02-2019 07:12 AM
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RealDeal Offline
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Post: #72
RE: College Football Week 5
(10-02-2019 07:12 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  I think the MI ranking problem takes care of itself as soon as they play a B10 team with a pulse. Ultimately, the human polls do self correct. And while I have singled out MI, we've seen this happen with other historically strong programs such as Florida State, Notre Dame and Miami (FL). Lots of love preseason only to fall flat.

It's just a poll of course. But if UCF had a #7 preseason ranking for one of their undefeated seasons maybe they would have had a shot at rising to the CFP. Starting the season outside the top 8 spots makes the pathway almost impossible, even for a P5 to break into what has turned out to be the 'Bama and Clemson Show.

The human polls do take care of themselves. Big names are going to get more attention until there is more games to analyze.

UCF getting a playoff shot or not has nothing to do with preseason rankings in human polls. For a non-P5 to have a legitmate playoff they need to get at least one big scalp non-conference and go 13-0. If we had gone 13-0 with a win at OSU we would be in the playoffs. Houston was going to go to the playoffs the year they beat Oklahoma and Louisville if they had gone undefeated. You probably need to beat a top 10 team and play in the top non P5 conference which seems like it's going to be the American for a long time; there's really not any other non-P5 even close to us.
 
10-02-2019 07:41 AM
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OKIcat Offline
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Post: #73
RE: College Football Week 5
(10-02-2019 07:41 AM)RealDeal Wrote:  
(10-02-2019 07:12 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  I think the MI ranking problem takes care of itself as soon as they play a B10 team with a pulse. Ultimately, the human polls do self correct. And while I have singled out MI, we've seen this happen with other historically strong programs such as Florida State, Notre Dame and Miami (FL). Lots of love preseason only to fall flat.

It's just a poll of course. But if UCF had a #7 preseason ranking for one of their undefeated seasons maybe they would have had a shot at rising to the CFP. Starting the season outside the top 8 spots makes the pathway almost impossible, even for a P5 to break into what has turned out to be the 'Bama and Clemson Show.

The human polls do take care of themselves. Big names are going to get more attention until there is more games to analyze.

UCF getting a playoff shot or not has nothing to do with preseason rankings in human polls. For a non-P5 to have a legitmate playoff they need to get at least one big scalp non-conference and go 13-0. If we had gone 13-0 with a win at OSU we would be in the playoffs. Houston was going to go to the playoffs the year they beat Oklahoma and Louisville if they had gone undefeated. You probably need to beat a top 10 team and play in the top non P5 conference which seems like it's going to be the American for a long time; there's really not any other non-P5 even close to us.

Bolded, absolutely agree with your formula. With that said, for the G5, and much of the P5, it's threading a microscopic needle. Hence, the CFP to date has belonged to a small handful of elite programs only.

For UC, with only 3 or 4 slots for non-conference games per year and the difficulty of scheduling quality P5 opponents, the Bearcats could go years without an opportunity to play a ranked one, through no fault of our University.

Many here point to 2020 as an exceptional year for UC football and I don't disagree. But the only chance to earn their stripes outside conference play next year will be at Nebraska and they haven't moved the needle for quite a while and probably won't be ranked.
 
10-02-2019 08:20 AM
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Post: #74
RE: College Football Week 5
(10-02-2019 07:12 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  
(10-01-2019 03:00 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  
(10-01-2019 07:12 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  Bottom line: the B10 gets too much love in the polls. Compare Michigan's wins and losses this season to "others receiving votes" and the case is clear. The power of a brand, both for that school and the conference overall.

Ok...I'll even throw in everyone below them.

#19 Michigan:
W vs. Middle Tennessee State (1-3) 40-21
W vs. #29 Army (3-1) 24-21
L at #8 Wisconsin (4-0) 35-14
W vs. Rutgers (1-3) 52-0

#20 Arizona State:
W vs. Kent State (2-2) 30-7
W vs. [FCS] Sacramento State (2-2) 19-7
W at #25 Michigan State (4-1) 10-7
L vs. Colorado (3-1) 34-31
W at #26 California (4-1) 24-17

#21 Oklahoma State:
W vs. Oregon State (1-3) 52-36
W vs. [FCS] McNeese State (2-3) 56-14
W at Tulsa (2-2) 40-21
L at #11 Texas (3-1) 36-30
W vs. Kansas State (3-1) 26-13

#22 Wake Forest
W vs. Utah State (3-1) 38-35
W at Rice (0-5) 41-21
W vs. North Carolina (2-3) 24-18
W vs. [FCS] Elon (1-4) 49-7
W at Boston College (3-2) 27-24

#23 Virginia
W at Pitt (3-2) 30-14
W vs. [FCS] William and Mary (2-3) 52-17
W vs. Florida State (3-2) 31-24
W vs. Old Dominion (1-3) 28-17
L at Notre Dame (3-1) 35-20

#24 SMU
W at Arkansas State (3-2) 37-30
W vs. North Texas (2-3) 49-27
W vs. Texas State (2-3) 47-17
W at TCU (3-1) 41-28
W at USF (1-3) 48-21

#25 Texas A&M:
W vs. Texas State (2-3) 41-7
L at #2 Clemson (5-0) 24-10
W vs. [FCS] Lamar (2-3) 62-3
L vs. #7 Auburn (5-0) 28-20
W vs. Arkansas (2-3) 31-27

#25 Michigan State:
W vs. Tulsa (2-2) 28-7
W vs. Western Michigan (3-2) 51-17
L vs. #20 Arizona State (4-1) 10-7
W at Northwestern (1-3) 31-10
W vs. Indiana (3-2) 40-31

#26 California:
W vs. [FCS] Cal-Davis (2-3) 27-13
W at #15 Washington (3-1) 20-19
W vs. North Texas (2-3) 23-17
W. at Mississippi (2-3) 28-20
L vs. #20 Arizona State (4-1) 24-17

#27 Memphis:
W vs. Mississippi (2-3) 15-10
W vs [FCS] Southern (2-3) 55-24
W at South Alabama (1-4) 42-6
W vs. Navy (2-1) 35-23

#28 Appalachian State:
W vs. [FCS] East Tennessee State (1-4) 42-7
W vs. Charlotte (2-3) 56-41
W at North Carolina (2-3) 34-31
W vs. Coastal Carolina (3-2) 56-37

#29 Army:
Lost to Michigan...no point

#30 Missouri:
L at Wyoming (4-1) 37-31
W vs. West Virginia (3-1) 38-7
W vs. [FCS] SE Missouri State (2-2) 50-0



Who are you putting above them in this group? Honestly, I see nothing wrong with where they're ranked.

I'd start with #20 ASU--two wins over ranked opponents on the road vs. zero for MI. Even #24 SMU beat a TCU team that was ranked when they played, on the road no less.

The better question was posed in the subsequent post--why was MI ever #7 to begin with? Almost entirely because of the historical brand. Harbaugh's record against OSU and other ranked opponents has been pretty awful. Were they preseason ranked because of a great finish in 2018? I think not as they lost again to OSU and dropped their bowl game to South Carolina.

I think the MI ranking problem takes care of itself as soon as they play a B10 team with a pulse. Ultimately, the human polls do self correct. And while I have singled out MI, we've seen this happen with other historically strong programs such as Florida State, Notre Dame and Miami (FL). Lots of love preseason only to fall flat.

It's just a poll of course. But if UCF had a #7 preseason ranking for one of their undefeated seasons maybe they would have had a shot at rising to the CFP. Starting the season outside the top 8 spots makes the pathway almost impossible, even for a P5 to break into what has turned out to be the 'Bama and Clemson Show.

RE: Michigan at 7 in preseason polls...There are always overrated teams in the preseason that drop quickly. Sometimes it’s the B10, sometimes it’s the P12, sometimes it’s the ACC, etc...Even the SEC has had some teams overrated in the preseason.

The only argument I see out of that is that they should just stop doing preseason polls in general, rather than a sign of the B10 exclusively being overrated.
 
10-02-2019 11:11 AM
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BearcatMan Offline
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Post: #75
RE: College Football Week 5
(10-02-2019 11:11 AM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  RE: Michigan at 7 in preseason polls...There are always overrated teams in the preseason that drop quickly. Sometimes it’s the B10, sometimes it’s the P12, sometimes it’s the ACC, etc...Even the SEC has had some teams overrated in the preseason.

The only argument I see out of that is that they should just stop doing preseason polls in general, rather than a sign of the B10 exclusively being overrated.

Couldn't agree more, and they kind of do that with the CFP Poll, which to my mind should be the only one in existence, as it's the only one that matters. However, there's no way the AP would ever let their poll die, and the broadcasting companies wouldn't stop using it because it's an easy way to market games. The fact that they essentially tell non-interested viewers who to watch based on relative fallacy, then use those numbers as a means with which to further separate haves and have-nots is the funniest part of all of this.
 
10-02-2019 11:27 AM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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Post: #76
RE: College Football Week 5
Michigan is going to get humiliated by OSU and that'll be it for Hardbaugh. Who cares.
 
10-03-2019 10:15 AM
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Post: #77
RE: College Football Week 5
(10-03-2019 10:15 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Michigan is going to get humiliated by OSU and that'll be it for Hardbaugh. Who cares.

I predict he'll be gone before then and that will help save face from the Buckeyes beatdown. The reason? Consider the remaining schedule:

#14 Iowa
@ Illinois
@ #12 Penn State
#9 Notre Dame
@ Maryland
#25 Michigan St
@ Indiana
#4 Ohio St
 
10-03-2019 11:15 AM
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C1ncy4Life Offline
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Post: #78
RE: College Football Week 5
(10-03-2019 11:15 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  
(10-03-2019 10:15 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  Michigan is going to get humiliated by OSU and that'll be it for Hardbaugh. Who cares.

I predict he'll be gone before then and that will help save face from the Buckeyes beatdown. The reason? Consider the remaining schedule:

#14 Iowa
@ Illinois
@ #12 Penn State
#9 Notre Dame
@ Maryland
#25 Michigan St
@ Indiana
#4 Ohio St

He should be probably, but considering he’s a “Michigan Man” and one of their own I’m not sure they have it in them to let him go midway through the season.
 
10-03-2019 01:08 PM
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