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numbersdontlie Offline
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Post: #1
Win probability chart
We're only projected to win 4.94 games this year. Gotta think it will be more than that.

[Image: WwMvCjI.jpg]
09-23-2019 08:53 PM
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JB04 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Win probability chart
1 in 3 chance we have 6 wins and go bowling? Not so fast my friend ... I’m not buying this bologna
09-23-2019 08:57 PM
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NIU1981 Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Win probability chart
The team looked like doo doo in Nebraska, that is true, but i'm quite confident they will win more than 4.974 games. Put this chart up in the locker room.
09-23-2019 09:10 PM
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MileHighHuskie Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Win probability chart
BS Chart
09-23-2019 09:19 PM
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NorthCoast Away
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Post: #5
RE: Win probability chart
Those worthless models always undervalue NIU.

The one from last year started by only having NIU winning 5 or six games too, I think.

One MAC Football Championship later... 03-yawn

https://csnbbs.com/thread-854855.html
09-23-2019 09:27 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Win probability chart
The numbers are lying.
09-23-2019 10:28 PM
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randyfensfanclub1 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Win probability chart
45% win probability vs. a team that lost 76-5.
09-23-2019 11:13 PM
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cosine4 Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Win probability chart
So only favored in one MAC game (and even against CMU)? Who comes up with these, they seem very wrong.
09-24-2019 07:47 AM
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HuskieTap22 Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Win probability chart
This seems about right to me for now. Hate to say it but NIU hasn’t really shown all that much through three games. Needed a late run to put away an FCS team in the opener, played one decent half against a Utah team that might not be as good as many thought, and got demolished by Nebraska. NIU has shown almost nothing over the last six quarters which three games in is half the season. The defense is not nearly as good as last season and the offense looks marginally better so far with plenty of looming question marks.

Expect to see growth as the season progresses but most of these MAC games look like toss ups at this point. If things start to gel more under the new staff then the win total should uptick a bit but as it stands today not sure anyone can say NIU is a front runner to win the conference.
09-24-2019 10:32 AM
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DogTracks Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Win probability chart
(09-24-2019 10:32 AM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  This seems about right to me for now. Hate to say it but NIU hasn’t really shown all that much through three games. Needed a late run to put away an FCS team in the opener, played one decent half against a Utah team that might not be as good as many thought, and got demolished by Nebraska. NIU has shown almost nothing over the last six quarters which three games in is half the season. The defense is not nearly as good as last season and the offense looks marginally better so far with plenty of looming question marks.

Expect to see growth as the season progresses but most of these MAC games look like toss ups at this point. If things start to gel more under the new staff then the win total should uptick a bit but as it stands today not sure anyone can say NIU is a front runner to win the conference.

Yeah, it's all fluid. Beat Vandy and things start to tip a little. A lot of those MAC games look like toss-ups, and right now, that's fair.
09-24-2019 10:38 AM
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NorthCoast Away
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Post: #11
RE: Win probability chart
(09-24-2019 10:32 AM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  This seems about right to me for now.

Fully disagree. This ridiculously flawed, and worthless, model is way off. Sure, it will predictably become less-wrong as the season plays out but it is embarrassingly off now.

It's basically predicting a Vandy loss followed by a split of the Ball State/Ohio U games with Ball St being he more likely victory. Then it's projecting an Akron win with another split, this time between the MiamiU/Central games, with Central being the more likely win. And it ends with calling for one win among the final three games with Toledo being a probable loss and the win more likely coming from one of the two Michigans that NIU finishes the season against. That gets you to their projected win total for the regular season.

That's some straight nonsense (aka bullshît 01-rivals).

(09-24-2019 10:32 AM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  ...not sure anyone can say NIU is a front runner to win the conference.

NIU most certainly is the/a frontrunner to win the West Division and therefore the conference as well.
(This post was last modified: 09-25-2019 12:30 PM by NorthCoast.)
09-24-2019 10:52 AM
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NIU007 Online
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Post: #12
RE: Win probability chart
I haven't seen anything yet that makes me disagree with the model.
09-24-2019 11:00 AM
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MiamiHuskie Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Win probability chart
Sadly, from what I've seen so far, this looks about right. The Nebraska game was a disaster. Don't know if it was jitters, but the 2019 NIU did not look prepared in any way.
Hopefully that game is an outlier that we can right off as one of those things to forget.
09-24-2019 11:09 AM
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NIU05 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Win probability chart
Looking at the schedule we only have -1- walk over game, Akron. All others have similar talent or in the case of CMU we have historical trouble with. Not an easy schedule.
09-24-2019 11:18 AM
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7 Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Win probability chart
(09-24-2019 11:09 AM)MiamiHuskie Wrote:  Sadly, from what I've seen so far, this looks about right. The Nebraska game was a disaster. Don't know if it was jitters, but the 2019 NIU did not look prepared in any way.
Hopefully that game is an outlier that we can right off as one of those things to forget.

They started 1-3 last year and it took a last minute pick to not be 0-4.

I thought Carey leaving would get rid of the negativity, but I guess not.
09-24-2019 11:29 AM
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MiamiHuskie Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Win probability chart
(09-24-2019 11:29 AM)7 Wrote:  
(09-24-2019 11:09 AM)MiamiHuskie Wrote:  Sadly, from what I've seen so far, this looks about right. The Nebraska game was a disaster. Don't know if it was jitters, but the 2019 NIU did not look prepared in any way.
Hopefully that game is an outlier that we can right off as one of those things to forget.

They started 1-3 last year and it took a last minute pick to not be 0-4.

I thought Carey leaving would get rid of the negativity, but I guess not.

Not negative, just realistic. There's a new coach, who I'm optimistic about, a new QB, and numerous key players gone.

We beat ISU, a very good FCS team, and looked okay against Utah (until the 4th quarter fade), but there was nothing good about the Nebraska game. The offense didn't look much better than last year's, which is scary.

I'm confident that Coach Hammock will turn things around, but the question is when. A strong showing against Vanderbilt will give the team, and the fans, some hope.
09-24-2019 11:42 AM
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ChicagoHuskie Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Win probability chart
Huskies pull off the victory this weekend and are going to run the table thru the MACC. I think this weekend the team comes together... the Nebraska game was an outlier, just got away from them when did not take advantage of a few wide open looks that would have changed the game dramatically.
09-24-2019 12:09 PM
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NorthCoast Away
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Post: #18
RE: Win probability chart
(09-24-2019 12:09 PM)ChicagoHuskie Wrote:  Huskies pull off the victory this weekend and are going to run the table thru the MACC. I think this weekend the team comes together... the Nebraska game was an outlier, just got away from them when did not take advantage of a few wide open looks that would have changed the game dramatically.

^This here will end up closer to the end product than the initial projection posted in the OP.
09-24-2019 12:17 PM
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cosine4 Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Win probability chart
We've had one bad game against a team that by every measure is the better team.
09-25-2019 08:00 AM
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Milwaukee Pilot Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Win probability chart
(09-25-2019 08:00 AM)cosine4 Wrote:  We've had one bad game against a team that by every measure is the better team.

Bingo! There was a lot of positivity after the Utah game, now the sky fell in Nebraska----this is nothing more than recency bias. If anyone thought this team was supposed to be anything other than 1-3 after the first four games, we are living on hope, not reality.

While there is a much more likely chance to beat Vanderbilt than Utah or Nebraska---it's more likely to come away with a loss than a win.

The amazing thing that coaches have that fans just don't is to understand that things are never as good as they same nor are they as bad as they seem.

Let it play out----if in a month or six weeks we are not trending towards the 6-6.5 wins we should have, then have that conversation.
09-25-2019 09:12 AM
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