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Huskiepower2003 Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Win probability chart
(10-08-2019 05:07 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  
(10-08-2019 04:33 PM)MiamiHuskie Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 02:01 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 01:56 PM)Dog Fan Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 01:38 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Ohio is a better football team than NIU,.Ohio.should win for that reason

Agreed. Unless this team becomes more disciplined and focused, the only win possibility I see is Akron. And even that is just a possibility.

That would be pretty tough to take. I cant see Akron beating NIU unless the teams play in London and NIU arrives on Friday night

Review the video from the second half of the BSU game and you'll realize that anything is possible.

Anything is possible but Akron is even less talented than NIU

So was Ball State University!
Over 110 penalty yards and more turnovers than Akron and the same result will happen.
Do not forget to blame Rod Carey Maddawg as you claim that he left the cupboard bare???

According to your book, it is all about talent, and mistakes are the previous coaches fault due to lack of talent.
Present discipline has got nothing to do with the present coaches right?
10-08-2019 05:28 PM
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MiamiHuskie Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Win probability chart
(10-08-2019 05:07 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  
(10-08-2019 04:33 PM)MiamiHuskie Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 02:01 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 01:56 PM)Dog Fan Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 01:38 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Ohio is a better football team than NIU,.Ohio.should win for that reason

Agreed. Unless this team becomes more disciplined and focused, the only win possibility I see is Akron. And even that is just a possibility.

That would be pretty tough to take. I cant see Akron beating NIU unless the teams play in London and NIU arrives on Friday night

Review the video from the second half of the BSU game and you'll realize that anything is possible.

Anything is possible but Akron is even less talented than NIU

Presbyterian would have won last Saturday's game the way NIU played.
Not slighting BSU, they hung in there and took advantage of NIU's 20 miscues.

That being said, I'm giving Hammock the benefit of the doubt and time to get the players together in a cohesive unit. Hopefully the implosion we saw in the second half was a one-off aberration and not a sign of deeper problems with the team.
10-08-2019 06:26 PM
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pvk75 Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Win probability chart
Take all the +++'s you want.

Some got used to Carey and what I call "elevated mediocrity." He did an OK job. STF believes Hammock can take NIU to the "next level" and, while not defined, that has to be winning bowl games and the Access/NY6. That's all there is above the MAC West and MACC for a G5.

That will take time, but in the shorter term after the disastrous second half vs. BSU, I am hungry for a sign that says NIU is headed that way, pointed in that direction.

The next two games will say something. Both on the road, vs. Ohio and Miami-Ohio. I'd rate them both better than BSU.

Still, and always, Go Huskies!

(As a footnote, I noted on Hammock's Twitter page the lack of his and other coaches' comments. Time to look in a mirror and see what's gaining.)
(This post was last modified: 10-08-2019 08:13 PM by pvk75.)
10-08-2019 08:11 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Win probability chart
(10-08-2019 05:28 PM)Huskiepower2003 Wrote:  
(10-08-2019 05:07 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  
(10-08-2019 04:33 PM)MiamiHuskie Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 02:01 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 01:56 PM)Dog Fan Wrote:  Agreed. Unless this team becomes more disciplined and focused, the only win possibility I see is Akron. And even that is just a possibility.

That would be pretty tough to take. I cant see Akron beating NIU unless the teams play in London and NIU arrives on Friday night

Review the video from the second half of the BSU game and you'll realize that anything is possible.

Anything is possible but Akron is even less talented than NIU

So was Ball State University!
Over 110 penalty yards and more turnovers than Akron and the same result will happen.
Do not forget to blame Rod Carey Maddawg as you claim that he left the cupboard bare???

According to your book, it is all about talent, and mistakes are the previous coaches fault due to lack of talent.
Present discipline has got nothing to do with the present coaches right?

No, I don't disagree the lack of discipline and penalties reflects bad on the coaching staff. I think right now it does not worry me as much because this team is not being held back from a West division title because of those mistakes. In my opinion this team did not have the talent to win the West. I just know many times when teams have less talent they are more likely to commit penalties. If that trend of no discipline continues into Year 2 , then Id be more concerned. One thing that can never happen again, scheduling. You cannot ask student athletes to endure that non-conf gauntlet again, it is not fair, it is not humane, and significantly elevates injury risk.
10-08-2019 11:03 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Win probability chart
Massey has NIU as favorites in only 1 game the rest of the year, Akron.
10-08-2019 11:40 PM
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Rabid Squirrel Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Win probability chart
This game seems to be a pivotal one in how Hammock will be viewed going forward. That doesn't mean he has to win it. But he does have to win control over his team. I'm willing to give him time, but not much. He needs to start winning. You don't want to waste the talented roster he inherited. There is no guarantee he will ever have another Antonio jones Davis or Hefflin or Crawford or Williams or Brinkman or Pugh or Mckie. You have to win when you have guys like those.
10-09-2019 06:47 AM
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Rabid Squirrel Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Win probability chart
Don’t know if anyone pays attention to 247’s team talent composite index. It ranks the entire roster. Individual rankings are always suspect. But a large group is a little better overall measure. NIU sits at #4 overall in 2019. Since the talent composite started in 2015 the top 4 teams in the west averaged out over 5 seasons have been:
1-toledo 2-wmu 3-NIU 4-cmu
The teams avg finish in conference play over that time go:
1-toledo 2-wmu 3-NIU 4-cmu

With the 4th highest ranked team in the MAC as far as talent goes Hammock needs to get this team to at least 6 wins.
10-09-2019 11:38 AM
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HuskieTap22 Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Win probability chart
(10-09-2019 06:47 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  This game seems to be a pivotal one in how Hammock will be viewed going forward. That doesn't mean he has to win it. But he does have to win control over his team. I'm willing to give him time, but not much. He needs to start winning. You don't want to waste the talented roster he inherited. There is no guarantee he will ever have another Antonio jones Davis or Hefflin or Crawford or Williams or Brinkman or Pugh or Mckie. You have to win when you have guys like those.

I want to see how he matches up against Solich. Should be a really good gauge of where he is as a head coach. Despite what others have been saying there is talent on this roster. Especially by MAC standards.
10-09-2019 12:15 PM
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badmoonrising13 Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Win probability chart
There is plenty of talent on the team: Bowers, AJD, Heflin, Kramer, Williams, McKie... One thing we are missing is a game-breaker. There's no one on our roster who is a threat to take it to the distance. I was hoping Tears was it after his first half against Utah, but he hasn't done much since. We need a playmaker to emerge if we are to turn this around. If none emerges, we are headed for a 3 or 4 win season...
10-09-2019 01:57 PM
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Rabid Squirrel Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Win probability chart
(10-09-2019 01:57 PM)badmoonrising13 Wrote:  There is plenty of talent on the team: Bowers, AJD, Heflin, Kramer, Williams, McKie... One thing we are missing is a game-breaker. There's no one on our roster who is a threat to take it to the distance. I was hoping Tears was it after his first half against Utah, but he hasn't done much since. We need a playmaker to emerge if we are to turn this around. If none emerges, we are headed for a 3 or 4 win season...

There is no real game-breaker. Maybe Bowers if he gets a rhythm. But that’s why I use the 2014 MACC team as our goal. While very good, Da’ron Brown was the only real offensive threat. TLL was out. And while Brown was good I don’t put him in the game breaker category. The 2019 defense is better than 2014. No one is noticing that NIU is the 15th ranked pass defense in the country right now.

It will be a team effort like 2014. And the receiving group is solid even if it has no star. Richie, Tucker, Brinkman, Crawford...all can get it done. Tears worries me.
10-09-2019 02:43 PM
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badmoonrising13 Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Win probability chart
I wouldn't call our receivers solid at this point. They're not getting open and they can't make the tough catch. Hell, they're dropping 6-7 easy passes per game. They need to get their act together. If they were solid Ross would easily average 300 yards per game and we'd have two more wins...
10-09-2019 07:33 PM
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Huskiepower2003 Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Win probability chart
(10-09-2019 02:43 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  
(10-09-2019 01:57 PM)badmoonrising13 Wrote:  There is plenty of talent on the team: Bowers, AJD, Heflin, Kramer, Williams, McKie... One thing we are missing is a game-breaker. There's no one on our roster who is a threat to take it to the distance. I was hoping Tears was it after his first half against Utah, but he hasn't done much since. We need a playmaker to emerge if we are to turn this around. If none emerges, we are headed for a 3 or 4 win season...

There is no real game-breaker. Maybe Bowers if he gets a rhythm. But that’s why I use the 2014 MACC team as our goal. While very good, Da’ron Brown was the only real offensive threat. TLL was out. And while Brown was good I don’t put him in the game breaker category. The 2019 defense is better than 2014. No one is noticing that NIU is the 15th ranked pass defense in the country right now.

It will be a team effort like 2014. And the receiving group is solid even if it has no star. Richie, Tucker, Brinkman, Crawford...all can get it done. Tears worries me.

Good analogy and analysis.
10-09-2019 07:40 PM
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Rabid Squirrel Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Win probability chart
(10-09-2019 07:33 PM)badmoonrising13 Wrote:  I wouldn't call our receivers solid at this point. They're not getting open and they can't make the tough catch. Hell, they're dropping 6-7 easy passes per game. They need to get their act together. If they were solid Ross would easily average 300 yards per game and we'd have two more wins...

Theres a lot that goes into getting open or not. Timing probably being the most important. Right now the timing seems a mess. In general WRs are only open for a half second. Miss that window and they're covered again. Look at the Tears TD vs Utah. He flashed open for just a moment and Bowers threw a perfect pass. Where that timing and execution has gone since then I have no idea.

They're missing confidence. The O-line needs confidence in each other. The QB needs it in the O-line and the WR's need it in their QB(and vice versa). Last year WRs and Childers never had it. That's why it never worked. I think this team is one breakout game away from getting on track.
10-09-2019 07:52 PM
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badmoonrising13 Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Win probability chart
I’m still holding out hope for a Mac title. Still expecting a bowl game.
10-09-2019 09:08 PM
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Rabid Squirrel Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Win probability chart
(10-09-2019 09:08 PM)badmoonrising13 Wrote:  I’m still holding out hope for a Mac title. Still expecting a bowl game.

For sure. As it usually does, it comes down to beating Toledo and WMU. If we lose to Ohio or EMU we were probably going to lose to Toledo anyway.
10-09-2019 10:07 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Win probability chart
(10-09-2019 10:07 PM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  
(10-09-2019 09:08 PM)badmoonrising13 Wrote:  I’m still holding out hope for a Mac title. Still expecting a bowl game.

For sure. As it usually does, it comes down to beating Toledo and WMU. If we lose to Ohio or EMU we were probably going to lose to Toledo anyway.

NIU will be underdogs for every game except Akron, those are pretty long odds to think about a MAC West title.
10-09-2019 10:27 PM
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