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NIU007 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Win probability chart
(09-25-2019 09:12 AM)Milwaukee Pilot Wrote:  
(09-25-2019 08:00 AM)cosine4 Wrote:  We've had one bad game against a team that by every measure is the better team.

Bingo! There was a lot of positivity after the Utah game, now the sky fell in Nebraska----this is nothing more than recency bias. If anyone thought this team was supposed to be anything other than 1-3 after the first four games, we are living on hope, not reality.

While there is a much more likely chance to beat Vanderbilt than Utah or Nebraska---it's more likely to come away with a loss than a win.

The amazing thing that coaches have that fans just don't is to understand that things are never as good as they same nor are they as bad as they seem.

Let it play out----if in a month or six weeks we are not trending towards the 6-6.5 wins we should have, then have that conversation.

But I want to have that conversation NOW!03-hissyfit
09-25-2019 01:04 PM
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NIU05 Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Win probability chart
6 top...4 true Fr in the 2 deeps in the front 7 on D? No thank you, that won't get it done.
09-25-2019 02:51 PM
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SylRocketFan Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Win probability chart
Toledo fan coming in peace! These charts are based off of the SP+ numbers Bill Connelly puts out each week. If you are not familiar, SP+ rates teams on their efficiency (how likely is a team to get 50% of yards for a 1st down on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, etc.) on offense and defense. NIU might not have had great efficiency numbers early which is why it shakes out this way thus far. Project MOV is based on an aggregate number less the opponents.

Post week 4 numbers if you are curious:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...state-move
(This post was last modified: 09-25-2019 03:17 PM by SylRocketFan.)
09-25-2019 03:15 PM
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MileHighHuskie Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Win probability chart
(09-25-2019 03:15 PM)SylRocketFan Wrote:  Toledo fan coming in peace! These charts are based off of the SP+ numbers Bill Connelly puts out each week. If you are not familiar, SP+ rates teams on their efficiency (how likely is a team to get 50% of yards for a 1st down on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, etc.) on offense and defense. NIU might not have had great efficiency numbers early which is why it shakes out this way thus far. Project MOV is based on an aggregate number less the opponents.

Post week 4 numbers if you are curious:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...state-move

Please, for the love of God, beat BYU. They believe it will be a cake walk.
09-25-2019 04:47 PM
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MiamiHuskie Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Win probability chart
(09-25-2019 03:15 PM)SylRocketFan Wrote:  Toledo fan coming in peace! These charts are based off of the SP+ numbers Bill Connelly puts out each week. If you are not familiar, SP+ rates teams on their efficiency (how likely is a team to get 50% of yards for a 1st down on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, etc.) on offense and defense. NIU might not have had great efficiency numbers early which is why it shakes out this way thus far. Project MOV is based on an aggregate number less the opponents.

Post week 4 numbers if you are curious:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...state-move

NIU #112 out of #130, that's just awesome.
09-25-2019 06:45 PM
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prairiedawg Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Win probability chart
(09-25-2019 03:15 PM)SylRocketFan Wrote:  Toledo fan coming in peace! These charts are based off of the SP+ numbers Bill Connelly puts out each week. If you are not familiar, SP+ rates teams on their efficiency (how likely is a team to get 50% of yards for a 1st down on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, etc.) on offense and defense. NIU might not have had great efficiency numbers early which is why it shakes out this way thus far. Project MOV is based on an aggregate number less the opponents.

Post week 4 numbers if you are curious:
https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...state-move

Briefly skimming his rankings.....this is garbage. Example

Final score 9/12 at Miami

Miami Hurricanes 17
CMU Chips 12

Then this formula ranks both on 9/15:

Miami Hurricanes # 30
CMU Chips # 119

Moronic.
09-25-2019 08:36 PM
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Huskiepower2003 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Win probability chart
Cannot believe that NIU football is already in the bottom 20 teams!
We won the MAC last year and have had a postseason in almost every year since 2008!
We just missed the postseason appearance that one year under Carey.
NIU is a MAC west contender until proven otherwise.
09-27-2019 12:05 PM
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HuskieTap22 Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Win probability chart
(09-24-2019 10:52 AM)NorthCoast Wrote:  
(09-24-2019 10:32 AM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  This seems about right to me for now.

Fully disagree. This ridiculously flawed, and worthless, model is way off. Sure, it will predictably become less-wrong as the season plays out but it is embarrassingly off now.

It's basically predicting a Vandy loss followed by a split of the Ball State/Ohio U games with Ball St being he more likely victory. Then it's projecting an Akron win with another split, this time between the MiamiU/Central games, with Central being the more likely win. And it ends with calling for one win among the final three games with Toledo being a probable loss and the win more likely coming from one of the two Michigans that NIU finishes the season against. That gets you to their projected win total for the regular season.

That's some straight nonsense (aka bullshît 01-rivals).

(09-24-2019 10:32 AM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  ...not sure anyone can say NIU is a front runner to win the conference.

NIU most certainly is the/a frontrunner to win the West Division and therefore the conference as well.

Still on board? Three out of the next four you get Solich, Martin, and McElwain. Coaches needs to improve fast or NIU will be out of the race by the end of October.
10-07-2019 12:46 PM
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NIU1981 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Win probability chart
I think our guys have to win out to get to Detroit so as far as the race goes we'll know this Saturday afternoon.
10-07-2019 12:48 PM
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NorthCoast Away
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Post: #30
RE: Win probability chart
(10-07-2019 12:48 PM)NIU1981 Wrote:  I think our guys have to win out to get to Detroit so as far as the race goes we'll know this Saturday afternoon.

What he said.

*Actually, NIU may be able to drop one more but it cannot be against Toledo (the only West team without a division loss that NIU has yet to play), and better if not against a West Division team.
(This post was last modified: 10-07-2019 01:27 PM by NorthCoast.)
10-07-2019 01:07 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Win probability chart
(10-07-2019 12:46 PM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  
(09-24-2019 10:52 AM)NorthCoast Wrote:  
(09-24-2019 10:32 AM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  This seems about right to me for now.

Fully disagree. This ridiculously flawed, and worthless, model is way off. Sure, it will predictably become less-wrong as the season plays out but it is embarrassingly off now.

It's basically predicting a Vandy loss followed by a split of the Ball State/Ohio U games with Ball St being he more likely victory. Then it's projecting an Akron win with another split, this time between the MiamiU/Central games, with Central being the more likely win. And it ends with calling for one win among the final three games with Toledo being a probable loss and the win more likely coming from one of the two Michigans that NIU finishes the season against. That gets you to their projected win total for the regular season.

That's some straight nonsense (aka bullshît 01-rivals).

(09-24-2019 10:32 AM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  ...not sure anyone can say NIU is a front runner to win the conference.

NIU most certainly is the/a frontrunner to win the West Division and therefore the conference as well.

Still on board? Three out of the next four you get Solich, Martin, and McElwain. Coaches needs to improve fast or NIU will be out of the race by the end of October.

Ohio is a better football team than NIU,.Ohio.should win for that reason
10-07-2019 01:38 PM
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Dog Fan Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Win probability chart
(10-07-2019 01:38 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 12:46 PM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  
(09-24-2019 10:52 AM)NorthCoast Wrote:  
(09-24-2019 10:32 AM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  This seems about right to me for now.

Fully disagree. This ridiculously flawed, and worthless, model is way off. Sure, it will predictably become less-wrong as the season plays out but it is embarrassingly off now.

It's basically predicting a Vandy loss followed by a split of the Ball State/Ohio U games with Ball St being he more likely victory. Then it's projecting an Akron win with another split, this time between the MiamiU/Central games, with Central being the more likely win. And it ends with calling for one win among the final three games with Toledo being a probable loss and the win more likely coming from one of the two Michigans that NIU finishes the season against. That gets you to their projected win total for the regular season.

That's some straight nonsense (aka bullshît 01-rivals).

(09-24-2019 10:32 AM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  ...not sure anyone can say NIU is a front runner to win the conference.

NIU most certainly is the/a frontrunner to win the West Division and therefore the conference as well.

Still on board? Three out of the next four you get Solich, Martin, and McElwain. Coaches needs to improve fast or NIU will be out of the race by the end of October.

Ohio is a better football team than NIU,.Ohio.should win for that reason

Agreed. Unless this team becomes more disciplined and focused, the only win possibility I see is Akron. And even that is just a possibility.
10-07-2019 01:56 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Win probability chart
(10-07-2019 01:56 PM)Dog Fan Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 01:38 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 12:46 PM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  
(09-24-2019 10:52 AM)NorthCoast Wrote:  
(09-24-2019 10:32 AM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  This seems about right to me for now.

Fully disagree. This ridiculously flawed, and worthless, model is way off. Sure, it will predictably become less-wrong as the season plays out but it is embarrassingly off now.

It's basically predicting a Vandy loss followed by a split of the Ball State/Ohio U games with Ball St being he more likely victory. Then it's projecting an Akron win with another split, this time between the MiamiU/Central games, with Central being the more likely win. And it ends with calling for one win among the final three games with Toledo being a probable loss and the win more likely coming from one of the two Michigans that NIU finishes the season against. That gets you to their projected win total for the regular season.

That's some straight nonsense (aka bullshît 01-rivals).

(09-24-2019 10:32 AM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  ...not sure anyone can say NIU is a front runner to win the conference.

NIU most certainly is the/a frontrunner to win the West Division and therefore the conference as well.

Still on board? Three out of the next four you get Solich, Martin, and McElwain. Coaches needs to improve fast or NIU will be out of the race by the end of October.

Ohio is a better football team than NIU,.Ohio.should win for that reason

Agreed. Unless this team becomes more disciplined and focused, the only win possibility I see is Akron. And even that is just a possibility.

That would be pretty tough to take. I cant see Akron beating NIU unless the teams play in London and NIU arrives on Friday night
10-07-2019 02:01 PM
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HuskieTap22 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Win probability chart
NIU hasn’t started MAC play 0 - 2 since 2007. Beating Ohio this week will be extremely tough given the current state of the program and it’s their Homecoming game. Would agree if they lose this week they are pretty much out of the MAC race.
10-07-2019 02:01 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Win probability chart
(10-07-2019 02:01 PM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  NIU hasn’t started MAC play 0 - 2 since 2007. Beating Ohio this week will be extremely tough given the current state of the program and it’s their Homecoming game. Would agree if they lose this week they are pretty much out of the MAC race.

I know mathematically NIU is not out of it, but I wont be heartbroken if NIU loses Saturday and is out of the race. This team is not good enough to contend for a MAC west title this year. I really want to see what some other guys can do for the future
10-07-2019 02:06 PM
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Post: #36
RE: Win probability chart
Why do I keep having this feeling that Hammock will start Childers at QB and the wins will start to come? Maybe I'm just dreaming.
10-07-2019 02:25 PM
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NIU007 Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Win probability chart
(10-07-2019 02:25 PM)Dog Fan Wrote:  Why do I keep having this feeling that Hammock will start Childers at QB and the wins will start to come? Maybe I'm just dreaming.

That's not a dream, that's a nightmare.

Or not. The threat of a QB run always did help a little.
10-07-2019 02:29 PM
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NIU007 Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Win probability chart
(10-07-2019 02:01 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 01:56 PM)Dog Fan Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 01:38 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 12:46 PM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  
(09-24-2019 10:52 AM)NorthCoast Wrote:  Fully disagree. This ridiculously flawed, and worthless, model is way off. Sure, it will predictably become less-wrong as the season plays out but it is embarrassingly off now.

It's basically predicting a Vandy loss followed by a split of the Ball State/Ohio U games with Ball St being he more likely victory. Then it's projecting an Akron win with another split, this time between the MiamiU/Central games, with Central being the more likely win. And it ends with calling for one win among the final three games with Toledo being a probable loss and the win more likely coming from one of the two Michigans that NIU finishes the season against. That gets you to their projected win total for the regular season.

That's some straight nonsense (aka bullshît 01-rivals).


NIU most certainly is the/a frontrunner to win the West Division and therefore the conference as well.

Still on board? Three out of the next four you get Solich, Martin, and McElwain. Coaches needs to improve fast or NIU will be out of the race by the end of October.

Ohio is a better football team than NIU,.Ohio.should win for that reason

Agreed. Unless this team becomes more disciplined and focused, the only win possibility I see is Akron. And even that is just a possibility.

That would be pretty tough to take. I cant see Akron beating NIU unless the teams play in London and NIU arrives on Friday night

03-lmfao
10-07-2019 02:30 PM
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MiamiHuskie Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Win probability chart
(10-07-2019 02:01 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 01:56 PM)Dog Fan Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 01:38 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 12:46 PM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  
(09-24-2019 10:52 AM)NorthCoast Wrote:  Fully disagree. This ridiculously flawed, and worthless, model is way off. Sure, it will predictably become less-wrong as the season plays out but it is embarrassingly off now.

It's basically predicting a Vandy loss followed by a split of the Ball State/Ohio U games with Ball St being he more likely victory. Then it's projecting an Akron win with another split, this time between the MiamiU/Central games, with Central being the more likely win. And it ends with calling for one win among the final three games with Toledo being a probable loss and the win more likely coming from one of the two Michigans that NIU finishes the season against. That gets you to their projected win total for the regular season.

That's some straight nonsense (aka bullshît 01-rivals).


NIU most certainly is the/a frontrunner to win the West Division and therefore the conference as well.

Still on board? Three out of the next four you get Solich, Martin, and McElwain. Coaches needs to improve fast or NIU will be out of the race by the end of October.

Ohio is a better football team than NIU,.Ohio.should win for that reason

Agreed. Unless this team becomes more disciplined and focused, the only win possibility I see is Akron. And even that is just a possibility.

That would be pretty tough to take. I cant see Akron beating NIU unless the teams play in London and NIU arrives on Friday night

Review the video from the second half of the BSU game and you'll realize that anything is possible.
10-08-2019 04:33 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Win probability chart
(10-08-2019 04:33 PM)MiamiHuskie Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 02:01 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 01:56 PM)Dog Fan Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 01:38 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  
(10-07-2019 12:46 PM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  Still on board? Three out of the next four you get Solich, Martin, and McElwain. Coaches needs to improve fast or NIU will be out of the race by the end of October.

Ohio is a better football team than NIU,.Ohio.should win for that reason

Agreed. Unless this team becomes more disciplined and focused, the only win possibility I see is Akron. And even that is just a possibility.

That would be pretty tough to take. I cant see Akron beating NIU unless the teams play in London and NIU arrives on Friday night

Review the video from the second half of the BSU game and you'll realize that anything is possible.

Anything is possible but Akron is even less talented than NIU
10-08-2019 05:07 PM
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