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Week 5 - Vegas Odds
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SpeedkingATL Offline
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I Root For: App State
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Post: #21
RE: Week 5 - Vegas Odds
So far the Sunbelt has lived up to the Funbelt name. Betting on Belt games in not easy and this year things really appear to be up for grabs. Hopefully the App defense will stabilize now that we are into the conference games. Coastal at App could become a track meet. On the other hand App's special teams have been "special" so far this season.
09-24-2019 09:29 AM
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ericsaid Offline
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I Root For: App. State/ECU
Location: High Point, NC
Post: #22
RE: Week 5 - Vegas Odds
(09-22-2019 01:35 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  Louisiana -3.5 (has moved to -4.5 early)
Georgia Southern

Appalachian State -18.5 (has moved to -16.5 early)
Coastal Carolina

Troy -3
Arkansas State

Louisiana Monroe -16.5
South Alabama

Some thoughts: I wouldn't touch the Cajuns / Eagles game. App line is too high, and early betting has reflected this. Stay away from Trojan / Red Wolves. Take the over for War Birds / Gulf Coast Kittens (OU is set at 58.5).

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-foot...las-vegas/

They aren't "odds". It's a market place of public perception driven by perceived ROI. ULM being -16.5 point favorites is a perfect example of this. Due to their close game with FSU, and FSU almost beating UVA, the market is probably de-valuing their loss to ISU and overvaluing their close game to FSU. Prime example is also Georgia State, who was a Vegas darling the following week after UT. But, anyone who follows Georgia State knew that they were largely still the same team that they always have been.

Various ratings systems (around 20 I believe) have the lines as follows (line average and median):

  1. App State - Coastal: Avg -17.5 Median - 17.3
  2. GS - Louisiana: Average + 3.5 Median +4.2
  3. Troy - Arkansas State: Average -4.7 Median - 4.4
  4. ULM - USA: Average -12.9 Median - 12.6
09-24-2019 11:19 AM
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ericsaid Offline
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Location: High Point, NC
Post: #23
RE: Week 5 - Vegas Odds
(09-24-2019 09:29 AM)SpeedkingATL Wrote:  So far the Sunbelt has lived up to the Funbelt name. Betting on Belt games in not easy and this year things really appear to be up for grabs. Hopefully the App defense will stabilize now that we are into the conference games. Coastal at App could become a track meet. On the other hand App's special teams have been "special" so far this season.

Coastal's defense is Top 40 is most every statistical category. App's defense without the Charlotte game would also be ranked quite high (I believe the season will show that game to be an aberration). Probably somewhere around the O/U total of 60 is what I'd guess happens. Could easily see 38-20 type game.
09-24-2019 11:21 AM
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