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OOC records: MWC vs AAC
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #141
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-16-2019 10:22 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 09:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Small changes can matter a lot, too. E.g., I notice your two best G5 vs G5 wins for the AAC are Navy > AFA and Tulsa > Wyoming. Both of those games were home games for the AAC team and very close, could easily have gone the other way. If they had, the MW is 2-1 vs the AAC, not 0-3.
UCF/Pitt and USF/Georgia Tech “could easily have gone the other way”, too. Surely the relevant point here is that.... they didn’t.

If we want to do the "what if", what if Wake's 4th Down attempt against Utah State failed in the opening week, which would have resulted in an Aggie Victory?
10-16-2019 12:14 PM
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Billy Bob Bearcat Offline
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Post: #142
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-16-2019 12:06 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(10-15-2019 08:55 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Since Native Georgian kept this up to date, I wanted to update my little contribution.

I list whom those OOC results were against, using the Massey Composite Ranking as of 12 October games.

Against "P5" the best win among them comes from Wyoming - in fact the win over Missouri got even better. (Let's not forget though that Wyoming also lost to Tulsa head to head.)
Otherwise, it looks pretty even to me for the quality of wins vs "P5" teams.

mwc and AAC wins vs "P5" by Massey Composite Ranking
@Wyoming 37, Missouri 31 #18 - mwc
SMU 41, @TCU 38 #40 AAC
@UCF 45, Stanford 27 #45 AAC
Boise State 36, @Florida State 31 #46 mwc
@Hawaii 45, Arizona 38 #52 mwc
(OT) Air Force 30, @Colorado 23 #61 mwc
@Memphis 15, Ole Miss 10 #68 AAC
@Temple 20, Maryland 17 #71 AAC
@Nevada 34, Purdue 31 #73 mwc
@Hawaii 31, Oregon State 28 #91 mwc
@Cincinnati 24, UCLA 14 #95 AAC
San Diego State 23, @UCLA 14 #95 mwc
San Jose State 31, @Arkansas 24 #103 mwc
@Temple 24, Georgia Tech 2 #113 AAC
UNLV 34, @Vanderbilt 10 #117 mwc


AAC average MC ranking of 6 defeated "P5" opponents: 72
mwc average MC ranking of 9 defeated "P5" opponents: 72.9

MWC is weighed down by wins over some weak P5 teams, in the more games they won - in affect penalizing them for winning more games

If you look at the top 6 (# of AAC P5 wins) you get the following averages:

MWC: 56.8
AAC: 72

If you do the top 5 wins, you get:
MWC: 50
AAC: 63.8

To summarize: if we exclude the data that doesn't support my viewpoint, we can find data that supports my viewpoint.
10-16-2019 12:47 PM
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slhNavy91 Online
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Post: #143
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-16-2019 12:47 PM)Billy Bob Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 12:06 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(10-15-2019 08:55 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Since Native Georgian kept this up to date, I wanted to update my little contribution.

I list whom those OOC results were against, using the Massey Composite Ranking as of 12 October games.

Against "P5" the best win among them comes from Wyoming - in fact the win over Missouri got even better. (Let's not forget though that Wyoming also lost to Tulsa head to head.)
Otherwise, it looks pretty even to me for the quality of wins vs "P5" teams.

mwc and AAC wins vs "P5" by Massey Composite Ranking
@Wyoming 37, Missouri 31 #18 - mwc
SMU 41, @TCU 38 #40 AAC
@UCF 45, Stanford 27 #45 AAC
Boise State 36, @Florida State 31 #46 mwc
@Hawaii 45, Arizona 38 #52 mwc
(OT) Air Force 30, @Colorado 23 #61 mwc
@Memphis 15, Ole Miss 10 #68 AAC
@Temple 20, Maryland 17 #71 AAC
@Nevada 34, Purdue 31 #73 mwc
@Hawaii 31, Oregon State 28 #91 mwc
@Cincinnati 24, UCLA 14 #95 AAC
San Diego State 23, @UCLA 14 #95 mwc
San Jose State 31, @Arkansas 24 #103 mwc
@Temple 24, Georgia Tech 2 #113 AAC
UNLV 34, @Vanderbilt 10 #117 mwc


AAC average MC ranking of 6 defeated "P5" opponents: 72
mwc average MC ranking of 9 defeated "P5" opponents: 72.9

MWC is weighed down by wins over some weak P5 teams, in the more games they won - in affect penalizing them for winning more games

If you look at the top 6 (# of AAC P5 wins) you get the following averages:

MWC: 56.8
AAC: 72

If you do the top 5 wins, you get:
MWC: 50
AAC: 63.8

To summarize: if we exclude the data that doesn't support my viewpoint, we can find data that supports my viewpoint.

If you do a scattergram, the outliers are CLEARLY Missouri on one end and the triple digit ranked teams on the other...debatable whether the best dataset should include Oregon State and UCLA...UCLA is an opponent common to both so let's keep those and compare datasets n=5 for AAC and n=6 for mwc

AAC 63.8
mwc 69.6

(On second thought, it is a much better grouping of data points to compare 4 vs 4 between 40 and 73, AAC 56 vs mwc 62.5)
10-16-2019 01:10 PM
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stxrunner Offline
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Post: #144
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-16-2019 12:06 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(10-15-2019 08:55 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Since Native Georgian kept this up to date, I wanted to update my little contribution.

I list whom those OOC results were against, using the Massey Composite Ranking as of 12 October games.

Against "P5" the best win among them comes from Wyoming - in fact the win over Missouri got even better. (Let's not forget though that Wyoming also lost to Tulsa head to head.)
Otherwise, it looks pretty even to me for the quality of wins vs "P5" teams.

mwc and AAC wins vs "P5" by Massey Composite Ranking
@Wyoming 37, Missouri 31 #18 - mwc
SMU 41, @TCU 38 #40 AAC
@UCF 45, Stanford 27 #45 AAC
Boise State 36, @Florida State 31 #46 mwc
@Hawaii 45, Arizona 38 #52 mwc
(OT) Air Force 30, @Colorado 23 #61 mwc
@Memphis 15, Ole Miss 10 #68 AAC
@Temple 20, Maryland 17 #71 AAC
@Nevada 34, Purdue 31 #73 mwc
@Hawaii 31, Oregon State 28 #91 mwc
@Cincinnati 24, UCLA 14 #95 AAC
San Diego State 23, @UCLA 14 #95 mwc
San Jose State 31, @Arkansas 24 #103 mwc
@Temple 24, Georgia Tech 2 #113 AAC
UNLV 34, @Vanderbilt 10 #117 mwc


AAC average MC ranking of 6 defeated "P5" opponents: 72
mwc average MC ranking of 9 defeated "P5" opponents: 72.9

MWC is weighed down by wins over some weak P5 teams, in the more games they won - in affect penalizing them for winning more games

If you look at the top 6 (# of AAC P5 wins) you get the following averages:

MWC: 56.8
AAC: 72

If you do the top 5 wins, you get:
MWC: 50
AAC: 63.8

[Image: giphy.gif]
10-16-2019 02:06 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #145
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
I think it's fair to say that the MW has performed *at least* as well vs the P5 so far as has the AAC, and probably better.

The reason the AAC is so much stronger in the computers is because they have performed far better against other G5 teams, including 3-0 vs the MW.

That is ironic, in that AAC fans are claiming a separation from the G5 and towards the P5, when this separation is in fact based on dominance of the G5, not on having more success vs the P5, which is what association with the P5 should be based on.
(This post was last modified: 10-16-2019 02:16 PM by quo vadis.)
10-16-2019 02:15 PM
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Pitt Co Pirates Offline
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Post: #146
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-16-2019 02:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think it's fair to say that the MW has performed *at least* as well vs the P5 so far as has the AAC, and probably better.

The reason the AAC is so much stronger in the computers is because they have performed far better against other G5 teams, including 3-0 vs the MW.

That is ironic, in that AAC fans are claiming a separation from the G5 and towards the P5, when this separation is in fact based on dominance of the G5, not on having more success vs the P5, which is what association with the P5 should be based on.

Separation none the less!!!
10-17-2019 03:49 PM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #147
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-16-2019 02:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think it's fair to say that the MW has performed *at least* as well vs the P5 so far as has the AAC, and probably better.

The reason the AAC is so much stronger in the computers is because they have performed far better against other G5 teams, including 3-0 vs the MW.

That is ironic, in that AAC fans are claiming a separation from the G5 and towards the P5, when this separation is in fact based on dominance of the G5, not on having more success vs the P5, which is what association with the P5 should be based on.

P6 was never about equality with the P5. It's about being a clear level above the G4.

The Mountain West is clearly not above the rest of the G4. They are 6-3 against the bottom 3 conferences.

The American is clearly above the rest of the G4. They are 16-1 against the G4, including 3-0 against the MWC.

Also, style points count. Of the MWC's 6 wins over bottom schools, all but 1 were nail biters, including one at home by the MWC's best team (Boise over Marshall). 9 of the AAC's 11 wins over the weakest 3 conferences were by more than 20 points. And one of the AAC's worst teams (Tulsa) beat 2 MWC teams head-to-head.
10-17-2019 05:49 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #148
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-17-2019 05:49 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 02:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think it's fair to say that the MW has performed *at least* as well vs the P5 so far as has the AAC, and probably better.

The reason the AAC is so much stronger in the computers is because they have performed far better against other G5 teams, including 3-0 vs the MW.

That is ironic, in that AAC fans are claiming a separation from the G5 and towards the P5, when this separation is in fact based on dominance of the G5, not on having more success vs the P5, which is what association with the P5 should be based on.

P6 was never about equality with the P5. It's about being a clear level above the G4.

The Mountain West is clearly not above the rest of the G4. They are 6-3 against the bottom 3 conferences.

The American is clearly above the rest of the G4. They are 16-1 against the G4, including 3-0 against the MWC.

Also, style points count. Of the MWC's 6 wins over bottom schools, all but 1 were nail biters, including one at home by the MWC's best team (Boise over Marshall). 9 of the AAC's 11 wins over the weakest 3 conferences were by more than 20 points. And one of the AAC's worst teams (Tulsa) beat 2 MWC teams head-to-head.

Well, I'm not sure, as "P6" seems to lump the AAC in with the ... P5. In any event, it's hard to really justify a P6 claim based on half of one season. Not when just last year, the MW was the highest-rated G5 conference.

As for style points, of the AAC's three wins over the MW this year, two of them were extremely close, with the AAC team looking like the loser with just minutes to go in each of them. The AAC could very easily be 1-2 vs the MW this season. Not that this matters much IMO, because again it is just half of a season.

Overall, in the five years of the CFP, the AAC has been the top-rated G5 conference 3 times, has been second once, and third once. The MW has been top-rated twice, and second three times. That's not much, if any, separation there.
(This post was last modified: 10-17-2019 06:37 PM by quo vadis.)
10-17-2019 06:34 PM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #149
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
The fact that this thread has gone 8 pages says something in itself
I’m just so glad we’ve moved on from the “We’re better than CUSA” days
10-17-2019 07:18 PM
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Native Georgian Online
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Post: #150
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-17-2019 07:18 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  I’m just so glad we’ve moved on from the “We’re better than CUSA” days
LOL. I admit, the thought of making such a comparison did cross my mind. But after looking over results of CUSA’s OOC matchups, it became quickly obvious that there was no point.

Comparing CUSA to MAC or Sun Belt, on the other hand, could be instructive. But I will leave that to the fans of those conferences to do so if they wish.
10-17-2019 08:01 PM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #151
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-17-2019 06:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2019 05:49 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 02:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think it's fair to say that the MW has performed *at least* as well vs the P5 so far as has the AAC, and probably better.

The reason the AAC is so much stronger in the computers is because they have performed far better against other G5 teams, including 3-0 vs the MW.

That is ironic, in that AAC fans are claiming a separation from the G5 and towards the P5, when this separation is in fact based on dominance of the G5, not on having more success vs the P5, which is what association with the P5 should be based on.

P6 was never about equality with the P5. It's about being a clear level above the G4.

The Mountain West is clearly not above the rest of the G4. They are 6-3 against the bottom 3 conferences.

The American is clearly above the rest of the G4. They are 16-1 against the G4, including 3-0 against the MWC.

Also, style points count. Of the MWC's 6 wins over bottom schools, all but 1 were nail biters, including one at home by the MWC's best team (Boise over Marshall). 9 of the AAC's 11 wins over the weakest 3 conferences were by more than 20 points. And one of the AAC's worst teams (Tulsa) beat 2 MWC teams head-to-head.

Well, I'm not sure, as "P6" seems to lump the AAC in with the ... P5. In any event, it's hard to really justify a P6 claim based on half of one season. Not when just last year, the MW was the highest-rated G5 conference.

As for style points, of the AAC's three wins over the MW this year, two of them were extremely close, with the AAC team looking like the loser with just minutes to go in each of them. The AAC could very easily be 1-2 vs the MW this season. Not that this matters much IMO, because again it is just half of a season.

Overall, in the five years of the CFP, the AAC has been the top-rated G5 conference 3 times, has been second once, and third once. The MW has been top-rated twice, and second three times. That's not much, if any, separation there.

According to what metric?

According to Sagarin, the AAC has been #1 every year except the first year (2014) when the MWC was 1st and the AAC was 2nd.
10-18-2019 08:26 AM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #152
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
Well, bump this up after BYU beat Boise, a week after BYU lost to one of the worst teams in the AAC USF.
10-20-2019 07:16 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #153
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-18-2019 08:26 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-17-2019 06:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-17-2019 05:49 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-16-2019 02:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think it's fair to say that the MW has performed *at least* as well vs the P5 so far as has the AAC, and probably better.

The reason the AAC is so much stronger in the computers is because they have performed far better against other G5 teams, including 3-0 vs the MW.

That is ironic, in that AAC fans are claiming a separation from the G5 and towards the P5, when this separation is in fact based on dominance of the G5, not on having more success vs the P5, which is what association with the P5 should be based on.

P6 was never about equality with the P5. It's about being a clear level above the G4.

The Mountain West is clearly not above the rest of the G4. They are 6-3 against the bottom 3 conferences.

The American is clearly above the rest of the G4. They are 16-1 against the G4, including 3-0 against the MWC.

Also, style points count. Of the MWC's 6 wins over bottom schools, all but 1 were nail biters, including one at home by the MWC's best team (Boise over Marshall). 9 of the AAC's 11 wins over the weakest 3 conferences were by more than 20 points. And one of the AAC's worst teams (Tulsa) beat 2 MWC teams head-to-head.

Well, I'm not sure, as "P6" seems to lump the AAC in with the ... P5. In any event, it's hard to really justify a P6 claim based on half of one season. Not when just last year, the MW was the highest-rated G5 conference.

As for style points, of the AAC's three wins over the MW this year, two of them were extremely close, with the AAC team looking like the loser with just minutes to go in each of them. The AAC could very easily be 1-2 vs the MW this season. Not that this matters much IMO, because again it is just half of a season.

Overall, in the five years of the CFP, the AAC has been the top-rated G5 conference 3 times, has been second once, and third once. The MW has been top-rated twice, and second three times. That's not much, if any, separation there.

According to what metric?

According to Sagarin, the AAC has been #1 every year except the first year (2014) when the MWC was 1st and the AAC was 2nd.

Officially, according to the CFP. The CFP uses the former BCS computers to determine the top G5 conference for purpose of splitting some G5 bonus money. This occurs after the bowl games.

The MW was #1 in 2014 and 2018, the AAC in 2015, 2016, and 2017.

And if you look at the Massey Composite, it says the same thing.
10-20-2019 07:22 AM
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WhoseHouse? Offline
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Post: #154
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
I think with Boises loss last night we can officially put this thread to rest
10-20-2019 09:39 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
(10-20-2019 09:39 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  I think with Boises loss last night we can officially put this thread to rest

Boise still has an outside shot at the NY6 Bowl. But it would now require lots of things to happen (outside Boise's control) for that.
10-20-2019 09:42 AM
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NBPirate Offline
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Post: #156
RE: OOC records: MWC vs AAC
The AAC has a bunch of top 35 teams with several in the polls. The comparison just isn’t close in my opinion. BYU lost to USF for crying out loud then beat Boise.
10-20-2019 09:43 AM
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