(10-16-2019 12:06 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 08:55 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Since Native Georgian kept this up to date, I wanted to update my little contribution.

I list whom those OOC results were against, using the Massey Composite Ranking as of 12 October games.

Against "P5" the best win among them comes from Wyoming - in fact the win over Missouri got even better. (Let's not forget though that Wyoming also lost to Tulsa head to head.)
Otherwise, it looks pretty even to me for the quality of wins vs "P5" teams.

mwc and AAC wins vs "P5" by Massey Composite Ranking
@Wyoming 37, Missouri 31 #18 - mwc
SMU 41, @TCU 38 #40 AAC
@UCF 45, Stanford 27 #45 AAC
Boise State 36, @Florida State 31 #46 mwc
@Hawaii 45, Arizona 38 #52 mwc
(OT) Air Force 30, @Colorado 23 #61 mwc
@Memphis 15, Ole Miss 10 #68 AAC
@Temple 20, Maryland 17 #71 AAC
@Nevada 34, Purdue 31 #73 mwc
@Hawaii 31, Oregon State 28 #91 mwc
@Cincinnati 24, UCLA 14 #95 AAC
San Diego State 23, @UCLA 14 #95 mwc
San Jose State 31, @Arkansas 24 #103 mwc
@Temple 24, Georgia Tech 2 #113 AAC
UNLV 34, @Vanderbilt 10 #117 mwc


AAC average MC ranking of 6 defeated "P5" opponents: 72
mwc average MC ranking of 9 defeated "P5" opponents: 72.9

MWC is weighed down by wins over some weak P5 teams, in the more games they won - in affect penalizing them for winning more games

If you look at the top 6 (# of AAC P5 wins) you get the following averages:

MWC: 56.8
AAC: 72

If you do the top 5 wins, you get:
MWC: 50
AAC: 63.8

To summarize: if we exclude the data that doesn't support my viewpoint, we can find data that supports my viewpoint.

(10-16-2019 12:47 PM)Billy Bob Bearcat Wrote:  

(10-16-2019 12:06 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 08:55 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Since Native Georgian kept this up to date, I wanted to update my little contribution.

I list whom those OOC results were against, using the Massey Composite Ranking as of 12 October games.

Against "P5" the best win among them comes from Wyoming - in fact the win over Missouri got even better. (Let's not forget though that Wyoming also lost to Tulsa head to head.)
Otherwise, it looks pretty even to me for the quality of wins vs "P5" teams.

mwc and AAC wins vs "P5" by Massey Composite Ranking
@Wyoming 37, Missouri 31 #18 - mwc
SMU 41, @TCU 38 #40 AAC
@UCF 45, Stanford 27 #45 AAC
Boise State 36, @Florida State 31 #46 mwc
@Hawaii 45, Arizona 38 #52 mwc
(OT) Air Force 30, @Colorado 23 #61 mwc
@Memphis 15, Ole Miss 10 #68 AAC
@Temple 20, Maryland 17 #71 AAC
@Nevada 34, Purdue 31 #73 mwc
@Hawaii 31, Oregon State 28 #91 mwc
@Cincinnati 24, UCLA 14 #95 AAC
San Diego State 23, @UCLA 14 #95 mwc
San Jose State 31, @Arkansas 24 #103 mwc
@Temple 24, Georgia Tech 2 #113 AAC
UNLV 34, @Vanderbilt 10 #117 mwc


AAC average MC ranking of 6 defeated "P5" opponents: 72
mwc average MC ranking of 9 defeated "P5" opponents: 72.9

MWC is weighed down by wins over some weak P5 teams, in the more games they won - in affect penalizing them for winning more games

If you look at the top 6 (# of AAC P5 wins) you get the following averages:

MWC: 56.8
AAC: 72

If you do the top 5 wins, you get:
MWC: 50
AAC: 63.8

To summarize: if we exclude the data that doesn't support my viewpoint, we can find data that supports my viewpoint.

If you do a scattergram, the outliers are CLEARLY Missouri on one end and the triple digit ranked teams on the other...debatable whether the best dataset should include Oregon State and UCLA...UCLA is an opponent common to both so let's keep those and compare datasets n=5 for AAC and n=6 for mwc

AAC 63.8
mwc 69.6

(On second thought, it is a much better grouping of data points to compare 4 vs 4 between 40 and 73, AAC 56 vs mwc 62.5)

(10-16-2019 12:06 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-15-2019 08:55 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Since Native Georgian kept this up to date, I wanted to update my little contribution.

I list whom those OOC results were against, using the Massey Composite Ranking as of 12 October games.

Against "P5" the best win among them comes from Wyoming - in fact the win over Missouri got even better. (Let's not forget though that Wyoming also lost to Tulsa head to head.)
Otherwise, it looks pretty even to me for the quality of wins vs "P5" teams.

mwc and AAC wins vs "P5" by Massey Composite Ranking
@Wyoming 37, Missouri 31 #18 - mwc
SMU 41, @TCU 38 #40 AAC
@UCF 45, Stanford 27 #45 AAC
Boise State 36, @Florida State 31 #46 mwc
@Hawaii 45, Arizona 38 #52 mwc
(OT) Air Force 30, @Colorado 23 #61 mwc
@Memphis 15, Ole Miss 10 #68 AAC
@Temple 20, Maryland 17 #71 AAC
@Nevada 34, Purdue 31 #73 mwc
@Hawaii 31, Oregon State 28 #91 mwc
@Cincinnati 24, UCLA 14 #95 AAC
San Diego State 23, @UCLA 14 #95 mwc
San Jose State 31, @Arkansas 24 #103 mwc
@Temple 24, Georgia Tech 2 #113 AAC
UNLV 34, @Vanderbilt 10 #117 mwc


AAC average MC ranking of 6 defeated "P5" opponents: 72
mwc average MC ranking of 9 defeated "P5" opponents: 72.9

MWC is weighed down by wins over some weak P5 teams, in the more games they won - in affect penalizing them for winning more games

If you look at the top 6 (# of AAC P5 wins) you get the following averages:

MWC: 56.8
AAC: 72

If you do the top 5 wins, you get:
MWC: 50
AAC: 63.8

I think it's fair to say that the MW has performed *at least* as well vs the P5 so far as has the AAC, and probably better.

The reason the AAC is so much stronger in the computers is because they have performed far better against other G5 teams, including 3-0 vs the MW.

That is ironic, in that AAC fans are claiming a separation from the G5 and towards the P5, when this separation is in fact based on dominance of the G5, not on having more success vs the P5, which is what association with the P5 should be based on.

(10-16-2019 02:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think it's fair to say that the MW has performed *at least* as well vs the P5 so far as has the AAC, and probably better.

The reason the AAC is so much stronger in the computers is because they have performed far better against other G5 teams, including 3-0 vs the MW.

That is ironic, in that AAC fans are claiming a separation from the G5 and towards the P5, when this separation is in fact based on dominance of the G5, not on having more success vs the P5, which is what association with the P5 should be based on.

Separation none the less!!!

(10-16-2019 02:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think it's fair to say that the MW has performed *at least* as well vs the P5 so far as has the AAC, and probably better.

The reason the AAC is so much stronger in the computers is because they have performed far better against other G5 teams, including 3-0 vs the MW.

That is ironic, in that AAC fans are claiming a separation from the G5 and towards the P5, when this separation is in fact based on dominance of the G5, not on having more success vs the P5, which is what association with the P5 should be based on.

P6 was never about equality with the P5. It's about being a clear level above the G4.

The Mountain West is clearly not above the rest of the G4. They are 6-3 against the bottom 3 conferences.

The American is clearly above the rest of the G4. They are 16-1 against the G4, including 3-0 against the MWC.

Also, style points count. Of the MWC's 6 wins over bottom schools, all but 1 were nail biters, including one at home by the MWC's best team (Boise over Marshall). 9 of the AAC's 11 wins over the weakest 3 conferences were by more than 20 points. And one of the AAC's worst teams (Tulsa) beat 2 MWC teams head-to-head.

(10-17-2019 05:49 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(10-16-2019 02:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think it's fair to say that the MW has performed *at least* as well vs the P5 so far as has the AAC, and probably better.

The reason the AAC is so much stronger in the computers is because they have performed far better against other G5 teams, including 3-0 vs the MW.

That is ironic, in that AAC fans are claiming a separation from the G5 and towards the P5, when this separation is in fact based on dominance of the G5, not on having more success vs the P5, which is what association with the P5 should be based on.

P6 was never about equality with the P5. It's about being a clear level above the G4.

The Mountain West is clearly not above the rest of the G4. They are 6-3 against the bottom 3 conferences.

The American is clearly above the rest of the G4. They are 16-1 against the G4, including 3-0 against the MWC.

Also, style points count. Of the MWC's 6 wins over bottom schools, all but 1 were nail biters, including one at home by the MWC's best team (Boise over Marshall). 9 of the AAC's 11 wins over the weakest 3 conferences were by more than 20 points. And one of the AAC's worst teams (Tulsa) beat 2 MWC teams head-to-head.

Well, I'm not sure, as "P6" seems to lump the AAC in with the ... P5. In any event, it's hard to really justify a P6 claim based on half of one season. Not when just last year, the MW was the highest-rated G5 conference.

As for style points, of the AAC's three wins over the MW this year, two of them were extremely close, with the AAC team looking like the loser with just minutes to go in each of them. The AAC could very easily be 1-2 vs the MW this season. Not that this matters much IMO, because again it is just half of a season.

Overall, in the five years of the CFP, the AAC has been the top-rated G5 conference 3 times, has been second once, and third once. The MW has been top-rated twice, and second three times. That's not much, if any, separation there.

The fact that this thread has gone 8 pages says something in itself
I’m just so glad we’ve moved on from the “We’re better than CUSA” days

(10-17-2019 06:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2019 05:49 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(10-16-2019 02:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think it's fair to say that the MW has performed *at least* as well vs the P5 so far as has the AAC, and probably better.

The reason the AAC is so much stronger in the computers is because they have performed far better against other G5 teams, including 3-0 vs the MW.

That is ironic, in that AAC fans are claiming a separation from the G5 and towards the P5, when this separation is in fact based on dominance of the G5, not on having more success vs the P5, which is what association with the P5 should be based on.

P6 was never about equality with the P5. It's about being a clear level above the G4.

The Mountain West is clearly not above the rest of the G4. They are 6-3 against the bottom 3 conferences.

The American is clearly above the rest of the G4. They are 16-1 against the G4, including 3-0 against the MWC.

Also, style points count. Of the MWC's 6 wins over bottom schools, all but 1 were nail biters, including one at home by the MWC's best team (Boise over Marshall). 9 of the AAC's 11 wins over the weakest 3 conferences were by more than 20 points. And one of the AAC's worst teams (Tulsa) beat 2 MWC teams head-to-head.

Well, I'm not sure, as "P6" seems to lump the AAC in with the ... P5. In any event, it's hard to really justify a P6 claim based on half of one season. Not when just last year, the MW was the highest-rated G5 conference.

As for style points, of the AAC's three wins over the MW this year, two of them were extremely close, with the AAC team looking like the loser with just minutes to go in each of them. The AAC could very easily be 1-2 vs the MW this season. Not that this matters much IMO, because again it is just half of a season.

Overall, in the five years of the CFP, the AAC has been the top-rated G5 conference 3 times, has been second once, and third once. The MW has been top-rated twice, and second three times. That's not much, if any, separation there.

According to what metric?

According to Sagarin, the AAC has been #1 every year except the first year (2014) when the MWC was 1st and the AAC was 2nd.

Well, bump this up after BYU beat Boise, a week after BYU lost to one of the worst teams in the AAC USF.

(10-18-2019 08:26 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(10-17-2019 06:34 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-17-2019 05:49 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(10-16-2019 02:15 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think it's fair to say that the MW has performed *at least* as well vs the P5 so far as has the AAC, and probably better.

The reason the AAC is so much stronger in the computers is because they have performed far better against other G5 teams, including 3-0 vs the MW.

That is ironic, in that AAC fans are claiming a separation from the G5 and towards the P5, when this separation is in fact based on dominance of the G5, not on having more success vs the P5, which is what association with the P5 should be based on.

P6 was never about equality with the P5. It's about being a clear level above the G4.

The Mountain West is clearly not above the rest of the G4. They are 6-3 against the bottom 3 conferences.

The American is clearly above the rest of the G4. They are 16-1 against the G4, including 3-0 against the MWC.

Also, style points count. Of the MWC's 6 wins over bottom schools, all but 1 were nail biters, including one at home by the MWC's best team (Boise over Marshall). 9 of the AAC's 11 wins over the weakest 3 conferences were by more than 20 points. And one of the AAC's worst teams (Tulsa) beat 2 MWC teams head-to-head.

Well, I'm not sure, as "P6" seems to lump the AAC in with the ... P5. In any event, it's hard to really justify a P6 claim based on half of one season. Not when just last year, the MW was the highest-rated G5 conference.

As for style points, of the AAC's three wins over the MW this year, two of them were extremely close, with the AAC team looking like the loser with just minutes to go in each of them. The AAC could very easily be 1-2 vs the MW this season. Not that this matters much IMO, because again it is just half of a season.

Overall, in the five years of the CFP, the AAC has been the top-rated G5 conference 3 times, has been second once, and third once. The MW has been top-rated twice, and second three times. That's not much, if any, separation there.

According to what metric?

According to Sagarin, the AAC has been #1 every year except the first year (2014) when the MWC was 1st and the AAC was 2nd.

Officially, according to the CFP. The CFP uses the former BCS computers to determine the top G5 conference for purpose of splitting some G5 bonus money. This occurs after the bowl games.

The MW was #1 in 2014 and 2018, the AAC in 2015, 2016, and 2017.

And if you look at the Massey Composite, it says the same thing.

I think with Boises loss last night we can officially put this thread to rest

(10-20-2019 09:39 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  I think with Boises loss last night we can officially put this thread to rest

Boise still has an outside shot at the NY6 Bowl. But it would now require lots of things to happen (outside Boise's control) for that.

The AAC has a bunch of top 35 teams with several in the polls. The comparison just isn’t close in my opinion. BYU lost to USF for crying out loud then beat Boise.

Bumping this thread, for supporting data for discussions of potential top champion of non-contract-bowl conference.


mwc and AAC wins vs "P5" by Massey Composite Ranking, 94 rankings compiled after 30 Nov games
SMU 41, @TCU 38 #49 AAC
Boise State 36, @Florida State 31 #54 mwc
@Wyoming 37, Missouri 31 #60 - mwc
@Hawaii 31, Oregon State 28 #64 mwc
(OT) Air Force 30, @Colorado 23 #69 mwc
@Cincinnati 24, UCLA 14 #74 AAC
San Diego State 23, @UCLA 14 #74 mwc
@Memphis 15, Ole Miss 10 #78 AAC
@Nevada 34, Purdue 31 #83 mwc
@UCF 45, Stanford 27 #84 AAC
@Hawaii 45, Arizona 38 #91 mwc
@Temple 20, Maryland 17 #103 AAC
@Temple 24, Georgia Tech 2 #109 AAC
UNLV 34, @Vanderbilt 10 #113 mwc
San Jose State 31, @Arkansas 24 #114 mwc

mwc average: 80.22
AAC average: 82.83

I don't see a lot of difference there.

The better idea add another game before the bowls like the Memphis vs Boise State to get the NY6 bowl to see who is better. If one of them loses the CCG? Throw Appalachian State in. This would be G5 championship game to get the NY6 bowl. Play it at a neutral site.

(12-02-2019 10:58 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The better idea add another game before the bowls like the Memphis vs Boise State to get the NY6 bowl to see who is better. If one of them loses the CCG? Throw Appalachian State in. This would be G5 championship game to get the NY6 bowl. Play it at a neutral site.

lol. Sorry but nope.

(12-03-2019 12:23 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-02-2019 10:58 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The better idea add another game before the bowls like the Memphis vs Boise State to get the NY6 bowl to see who is better. If one of them loses the CCG? Throw Appalachian State in. This would be G5 championship game to get the NY6 bowl. Play it at a neutral site.

lol. Sorry but nope.

I'll go with it, with a playoff spot. Otherwise, no.

Article that breaks down the two conferences record vs the p5

https://www.downthedrive.com/platform/am...-a-mistake

(12-04-2019 11:44 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  Article that breaks down the two conferences record vs the p5

https://www.downthedrive.com/platform/am...-a-mistake

I agree with the article but I wonder, did the author write this after all the times that Aresco and other AAC backers mentioned wins vs P5 to tout the AAC? Because that's happened many times the past five years.

Seems like AAC fans like to talk P5 wins when it helps them, now want to downplay it when it doesn't, but the rest of us don't have to abide that.