(09-26-2019 06:19 PM)Vobserver Wrote:  

(09-24-2019 11:26 AM)ericsaid Wrote:  Coastal - 27 at App - 44
App wins by 17



Ark State - 28 at Troy - 34
Troy wins by 6

Louisiana - 23 at Georgia Southern - 28
Georgia Southern wins by 5

South - 24 at ULM - 34
ULM wins by 10

Nichols at Texas State
TX St wins by 9

Where did you get your numbers?

My picks:
App by 10 over Coastal
Troy over stAte by 7
Louisiana over GaSo by 18
ULM over USA by 14
TxSt over Nichols by 10

There is a site that takes the predictions from around 20 respected models, finds the standard deviation on score predictions, gets the range and quartiles, standard deviation, and works out a probability model (or you can do it yourself in which case you can convert points to Z-Score to find the probabilities, based on those models, of a particular score occuring) which you can then convert to monetary value.

Either way, my score predictions themselves are based mostly on the point totals I expect. Started off with the margin, looked at average points per game and opponents, and picked the score from there.

(09-25-2019 03:58 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(09-25-2019 02:29 PM)eaglewraith Wrote:  SP+ Picks (Pick in bold)

Coastal/App: App -16

stAte/Troy: Troy -6

Louisiana/Georgia Southern: Louisiana -3.5

USA/ULM: ULM -16

Nichols/TX State: No line

Link to this? Everything I've found is behind a paywall.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...state-move

My spreadsheets approximate his HFA with 2.4 points added to home team.
Math is CCU = -6.1, APP = 6.6 . . that is 12.7 on neutral . . . add 2.4 for APP home game and get a projected margin of 15.1.

Moreover my research says when SP+ indicates the dog will cover, take the dog.

I don't know where dude got his SP+ info: https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC

I have APP by 15.1, not enough to cover the current number.
I have Troy by 5.1, not enough (although Bonner situation changes this.)
I have ULL by 8 over GS, so bombs away there for SP+
And I have ULM by 9.1 over USA, so play USA plus the 15 based on SP+

(09-27-2019 06:36 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(09-25-2019 03:58 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(09-25-2019 02:29 PM)eaglewraith Wrote:  SP+ Picks (Pick in bold)

Coastal/App: App -16

stAte/Troy: Troy -6

Louisiana/Georgia Southern: Louisiana -3.5

USA/ULM: ULM -16

Nichols/TX State: No line

Link to this? Everything I've found is behind a paywall.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...state-move

My spreadsheets approximate his HFA with 2.4 points added to home team.
Math is CCU = -6.1, APP = 6.6 . . that is 12.7 on neutral . . . add 2.4 for APP home game and get a projected margin of 15.1.

Moreover my research says when SP+ indicates the dog will cover, take the dog.

I don't know where dude got his SP+ info: https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC

I have APP by 15.1, not enough to cover the current number.
I have Troy by 5.1, not enough (although Bonner situation changes this.)
I have ULL by 8 over GS, so bombs away there for SP+
And I have ULM by 9.1 over USA, so play USA plus the 15 based on SP+

Your first link to SP+ has Louisiana at +3.2 and GaSo at -10.7. With a 2.4 home advantage that puts the Cajuns as 11.5 point favorites. So, with a spread of 3.5, you are saying the odds are high that Louisiana both wins and covers?

(09-27-2019 07:31 PM)Vobserver Wrote:  

(09-27-2019 06:36 PM)WinstonTheWolf Wrote:  

(09-25-2019 03:58 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(09-25-2019 02:29 PM)eaglewraith Wrote:  SP+ Picks (Pick in bold)

Coastal/App: App -16

stAte/Troy: Troy -6

Louisiana/Georgia Southern: Louisiana -3.5

USA/ULM: ULM -16

Nichols/TX State: No line

Link to this? Everything I've found is behind a paywall.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...state-move

My spreadsheets approximate his HFA with 2.4 points added to home team.
Math is CCU = -6.1, APP = 6.6 . . that is 12.7 on neutral . . . add 2.4 for APP home game and get a projected margin of 15.1.

Moreover my research says when SP+ indicates the dog will cover, take the dog.

I don't know where dude got his SP+ info: https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC

I have APP by 15.1, not enough to cover the current number.
I have Troy by 5.1, not enough (although Bonner situation changes this.)
I have ULL by 8 over GS, so bombs away there for SP+
And I have ULM by 9.1 over USA, so play USA plus the 15 based on SP+

Your first link to SP+ has Louisiana at +3.2 and GaSo at -10.7. With a 2.4 home advantage that puts the Cajuns as 11.5 point favorites. So, with a spread of 3.5, you are saying the odds are high that Louisiana both wins and covers?

Yeah that is where the 8 came from 11.5-3.5 for the 8 pt SP+ "edge" in favor of the Cajuns

High is relative. In a limited study I determined that most of the value in the overall SP+ edge ATS results is with underdogs with the SP+ edge. So I filter out favorites with the edge because they were too close to 50/50 for my liking. But, it is only a couple seasons worth of data so I'll continue to monitor.

So for example if the SP+ "edge" is 53% overall, and (making up numbers here for illustration) that 53% is comprised of a 51% ATS win rate for favorites and a 55% win rate ATS for dogs, what are you gonna do when break even is 52.4%?

But it wouldn't surprise me if the Cajuns won by 10 in Statesboro.

https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/11...02433?s=20