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2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #41
RE: 2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread
(10-11-2019 01:04 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-11-2019 01:00 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  That's right - I quickly scanned an article that implied he was given a 3 yr extension but it's just 3 years left on contract.

I have a feeling if same thing happens next season, he won't be as lucky.

That's a feeling shared by more than a few Dodgers fans.

It's a guess but I think the FO is saying, "We know we didn't give you all the tools you needed this year so we're gonna cut you some slack." Of course, if I'm right that means the FO thinks they CAN give him those tools next year...

First order of business is arb eligible guys: Pederson, Seager, and Bellinger all in line for big increases and several others who will get decent raises. They'll still be relative bargains but it's a non-trivial hit on payroll - well over $25MM increase. And the FAs they'll lose (Hill and Ryu are the biggest) cut a little over $40MM. So here's where the rubber meets the road. If you sign all the arb eligible guys (and they might not - there are a couple of obvious non-tender guys like Yimi Garcia but that's small potatoes) you're going to be reasonably close to the threshold. They could stay under if they "improve from within" but I think that's BS and it's hard to imagine the FO thinking the fanbase will buy that. It's pretty obvious what LA missed out on at the trade deadline. Real improvement (the kind that allows them to say to Roberts that they've given him better tools) requires exceeding the luxury threshold and/or trading significant resources. Not much trade target talk yet but I'd love to see a run at Rendon or Gerrit Cole. Acquiring either of those guys makes a trade possible as well, but still wouldn't be close to coming under the threshold. This is going to be a "show me" offseason.
10-11-2019 01:50 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #42
RE: 2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread
Anybody think Kenley Jansen will opt out? 03-lmfao03-weeping
10-11-2019 01:59 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #43
RE: 2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread
(10-11-2019 01:50 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(10-11-2019 01:04 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-11-2019 01:00 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  That's right - I quickly scanned an article that implied he was given a 3 yr extension but it's just 3 years left on contract.

I have a feeling if same thing happens next season, he won't be as lucky.

That's a feeling shared by more than a few Dodgers fans.

It's a guess but I think the FO is saying, "We know we didn't give you all the tools you needed this year so we're gonna cut you some slack." Of course, if I'm right that means the FO thinks they CAN give him those tools next year...

First order of business is arb eligible guys: Pederson, Seager, and Bellinger all in line for big increases and several others who will get decent raises. They'll still be relative bargains but it's a non-trivial hit on payroll - well over $25MM increase. And the FAs they'll lose (Hill and Ryu are the biggest) cut a little over $40MM. So here's where the rubber meets the road. If you sign all the arb eligible guys (and they might not - there are a couple of obvious non-tender guys like Yimi Garcia but that's small potatoes) you're going to be reasonably close to the threshold. They could stay under if they "improve from within" but I think that's BS and it's hard to imagine the FO thinking the fanbase will buy that. It's pretty obvious what LA missed out on at the trade deadline. Real improvement (the kind that allows them to say to Roberts that they've given him better tools) requires exceeding the luxury threshold and/or trading significant resources. Not much trade target talk yet but I'd love to see a run at Rendon or Gerrit Cole. Acquiring either of those guys makes a trade possible as well, but still wouldn't be close to coming under the threshold. This is going to be a "show me" offseason.

They have to do something with the rotation. You can't go into it with Buehler, Kershaw, Maeda, and the kids. Also with the bullpen.

Just in the existing contracts you have 88 million obligated towards the tax. Add in 15 million for insuarance/etc that everyone gets and you're at 103 of 208 million. The Arbitration estimates for Pederson, Seagler, Bellinger, Muncy, Taylor, Hernandez, and Urias around 44 million. So that leaves only 60 million left. And they have no bad contracts really to deal to a moron team.
10-11-2019 02:12 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #44
RE: 2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread
(10-11-2019 02:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-11-2019 01:50 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(10-11-2019 01:04 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-11-2019 01:00 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  That's right - I quickly scanned an article that implied he was given a 3 yr extension but it's just 3 years left on contract.

I have a feeling if same thing happens next season, he won't be as lucky.

That's a feeling shared by more than a few Dodgers fans.

It's a guess but I think the FO is saying, "We know we didn't give you all the tools you needed this year so we're gonna cut you some slack." Of course, if I'm right that means the FO thinks they CAN give him those tools next year...

First order of business is arb eligible guys: Pederson, Seager, and Bellinger all in line for big increases and several others who will get decent raises. They'll still be relative bargains but it's a non-trivial hit on payroll - well over $25MM increase. And the FAs they'll lose (Hill and Ryu are the biggest) cut a little over $40MM. So here's where the rubber meets the road. If you sign all the arb eligible guys (and they might not - there are a couple of obvious non-tender guys like Yimi Garcia but that's small potatoes) you're going to be reasonably close to the threshold. They could stay under if they "improve from within" but I think that's BS and it's hard to imagine the FO thinking the fanbase will buy that. It's pretty obvious what LA missed out on at the trade deadline. Real improvement (the kind that allows them to say to Roberts that they've given him better tools) requires exceeding the luxury threshold and/or trading significant resources. Not much trade target talk yet but I'd love to see a run at Rendon or Gerrit Cole. Acquiring either of those guys makes a trade possible as well, but still wouldn't be close to coming under the threshold. This is going to be a "show me" offseason.

They have to do something with the rotation. You can't go into it with Buehler, Kershaw, Maeda, and the kids. Also with the bullpen.

Just in the existing contracts you have 88 million obligated towards the tax. Add in 15 million for insuarance/etc that everyone gets and you're at 103 of 208 million. The Arbitration estimates for Pederson, Seagler, Bellinger, Muncy, Taylor, Hernandez, and Urias around 44 million. So that leaves only 60 million left. And they have no bad contracts really to deal to a moron team.

Total estimated arb bill is $53MM, but what I was expressing above was the delta between this year and last (I think it's between 25 and 30 but that's not really the point). What you are doing is basically echoing my point: They can't make credible moves without spending significant money.

I assume you are referring to Urias as one of "the kids" but I think he's quite a bit more established than May/Gonsolin, so I get it if they're counting on him. But to your other point that just makes the bullpen that much weaker. I'm ok with Buehler as a #1, Kershaw as a #3, Maeda as a #4, and Urias as a #5. But I don't see where May or Gonsolin fit in unless one of them figures a way to displace Urias back to the pen. No way Maeda starts the season in the pen (even though you can make the argument he makes the team better that way). But no matter how I slice it, the team needs to acquire a strong #2, or a stronger #1 and Buehler as #2.
10-11-2019 02:39 PM
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #45
RE: 2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread
(10-11-2019 02:39 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(10-11-2019 02:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  They have to do something with the rotation. You can't go into it with Buehler, Kershaw, Maeda, and the kids. Also with the bullpen.


I assume you are referring to Urias as one of "the kids" but I think he's quite a bit more established than May/Gonsolin, so I get it if they're counting on him. But to your other point that just makes the bullpen that much weaker. I'm ok with Buehler as a #1, Kershaw as a #3, Maeda as a #4, and Urias as a #5. But I don't see where May or Gonsolin fit in unless one of them figures a way to displace Urias back to the pen. No way Maeda starts the season in the pen (even though you can make the argument he makes the team better that way). But no matter how I slice it, the team needs to acquire a strong #2, or a stronger #1 and Buehler as #2.

Dallass Kaeuchel will likely be available again.
10-12-2019 08:55 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #46
RE: 2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread
for Swoosh-

10-12-2019 01:53 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #47
RE: 2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread
Whoa.

An Angels employee has hired a well-known criminal defense attorney and has given explosive info to the feds.

Quote:A public relations employee for the Los Angeles Angels told federal investigators that he provided oxycodone to Tyler Skaggs and abused it with him for years, and that two team officials were told about Skaggs' drug use long before his death, according to two sources familiar with the investigation.

Eric Kay, the Angels' director of communications, also gave U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration agents the names of five other players who he believed were using opiates while they were Angels, the sources said.

Kay's attorney, Michael Molfetta, reached late Friday, confirmed the details of Kay's statements, given in separate meetings with DEA agents in Dallas and Los Angeles in late September.
https://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id...ators-espn
10-12-2019 02:49 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #48
RE: 2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread
(10-12-2019 02:49 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Whoa.

An Angels employee has hired a well-known criminal defense attorney and has given explosive info to the feds.

Quote:A public relations employee for the Los Angeles Angels told federal investigators that he provided oxycodone to Tyler Skaggs and abused it with him for years, and that two team officials were told about Skaggs' drug use long before his death, according to two sources familiar with the investigation.

Eric Kay, the Angels' director of communications, also gave U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration agents the names of five other players who he believed were using opiates while they were Angels, the sources said.

Kay's attorney, Michael Molfetta, reached late Friday, confirmed the details of Kay's statements, given in separate meetings with DEA agents in Dallas and Los Angeles in late September.
https://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id...ators-espn
You hope and pray one of those names isn't Mike Trout.
10-12-2019 02:58 PM
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Jjoey52 Offline
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Post: #49
2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread
(10-12-2019 02:58 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-12-2019 02:49 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Whoa.

An Angels employee has hired a well-known criminal defense attorney and has given explosive info to the feds.

Quote:A public relations employee for the Los Angeles Angels told federal investigators that he provided oxycodone to Tyler Skaggs and abused it with him for years, and that two team officials were told about Skaggs' drug use long before his death, according to two sources familiar with the investigation.

Eric Kay, the Angels' director of communications, also gave U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration agents the names of five other players who he believed were using opiates while they were Angels, the sources said.

Kay's attorney, Michael Molfetta, reached late Friday, confirmed the details of Kay's statements, given in separate meetings with DEA agents in Dallas and Los Angeles in late September.
https://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id...ators-espn
You hope and pray one of those names isn't Mike Trout.


I Highly doubt that. He just doesn’t seem the type.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
10-12-2019 10:30 PM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #50
RE: 2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread
(10-12-2019 10:30 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  
(10-12-2019 02:58 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-12-2019 02:49 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Whoa.

An Angels employee has hired a well-known criminal defense attorney and has given explosive info to the feds.

Quote:A public relations employee for the Los Angeles Angels told federal investigators that he provided oxycodone to Tyler Skaggs and abused it with him for years, and that two team officials were told about Skaggs' drug use long before his death, according to two sources familiar with the investigation.

Eric Kay, the Angels' director of communications, also gave U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration agents the names of five other players who he believed were using opiates while they were Angels, the sources said.

Kay's attorney, Michael Molfetta, reached late Friday, confirmed the details of Kay's statements, given in separate meetings with DEA agents in Dallas and Los Angeles in late September.
https://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id...ators-espn
You hope and pray one of those names isn't Mike Trout.


I Highly doubt that. He just doesn’t seem the type.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Judging by all the glowing character references he received when he died, Skaggs wasn't the type either.

I had the same thought as Stever
10-14-2019 01:01 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #51
RE: 2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread
(10-14-2019 01:01 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(10-12-2019 10:30 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  
(10-12-2019 02:58 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-12-2019 02:49 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Whoa.

An Angels employee has hired a well-known criminal defense attorney and has given explosive info to the feds.

Quote:A public relations employee for the Los Angeles Angels told federal investigators that he provided oxycodone to Tyler Skaggs and abused it with him for years, and that two team officials were told about Skaggs' drug use long before his death, according to two sources familiar with the investigation.

Eric Kay, the Angels' director of communications, also gave U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration agents the names of five other players who he believed were using opiates while they were Angels, the sources said.

Kay's attorney, Michael Molfetta, reached late Friday, confirmed the details of Kay's statements, given in separate meetings with DEA agents in Dallas and Los Angeles in late September.
https://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id...ators-espn
You hope and pray one of those names isn't Mike Trout.


I Highly doubt that. He just doesn’t seem the type.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Judging by all the glowing character references he received when he died, Skaggs wasn't the type either.

I had the same thought as Stever

It's a reasonable fear. I read the portion bolded above and got the impression the other players are former Angels. That may just be a questionable/imprecise choice of words but as written made me think we're not talking about Trout or anyone else currently on the team.
10-14-2019 04:10 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #52
RE: 2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread
so heard that Honeycutt will be gone as pitching coach for the Dodgers.... Mark Prior will take over....

Will be really interesting to see what impact that makes. Know the Nats fired Lilliquist earlier this season back in early may, and look what happened since then.
10-14-2019 05:57 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #53
RE: 2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread
(10-14-2019 05:57 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so heard that Honeycutt will be gone as pitching coach for the Dodgers.... Mark Prior will take over....

Will be really interesting to see what impact that makes. Know the Nats fired Lilliquist earlier this season back in early may, and look what happened since then.

...and Friedman expects to sign a new contract in the next few days.

Not many people understand Honeycutt's impact on the Dodgers pitching staff(s) during his tenure. The last couple of years it's not been as obvious (and he's been suffering from health issues), but he's got a long list of mediocre and/or underperforming pitchers that have turned around under his coaching. He joined the team (as a coach) in 2006. In the 13 years since the Dodgers cumulative ERA is the best in MLB.
10-15-2019 12:33 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #54
RE: 2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread

10-16-2019 08:41 AM
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RE: 2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread
Column on the Athletic by Andy McCullough posing the big question: Are the Dodgers willing to spend big bucks? Turner said he's happy to move off 3B for Rendon. Thing is, Rendon's going to be asking for something approaching 7/240. Will ownership really be willing to spend that kind of money, when in a few years they'll be looking at enormous deals for Bellinger, Seager, Buehler and Urias? Not to mention what those guys will get in arbitration. Muncy will also be arbitration eligible after next season.
10-17-2019 12:47 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #56
RE: 2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread
(10-17-2019 12:47 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Column on the Athletic by Andy McCullough posing the big question: Are the Dodgers willing to spend big bucks? Turner said he's happy to move off 3B for Rendon. Thing is, Rendon's going to be asking for something approaching 7/240. Will ownership really be willing to spend that kind of money, when in a few years they'll be looking at enormous deals for Bellinger, Seager, Buehler and Urias? Not to mention what those guys will get in arbitration. Muncy will also be arbitration eligible after next season.

Muncy already eligible this year actually.

I think they have to focus more on pitching. They can't go into a playoffs any longer with Kershaw as #2. Especially with Ryu as a free agent.
10-17-2019 12:52 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #57
RE: 2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread
(10-17-2019 12:52 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-17-2019 12:47 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Column on the Athletic by Andy McCullough posing the big question: Are the Dodgers willing to spend big bucks? Turner said he's happy to move off 3B for Rendon. Thing is, Rendon's going to be asking for something approaching 7/240. Will ownership really be willing to spend that kind of money, when in a few years they'll be looking at enormous deals for Bellinger, Seager, Buehler and Urias? Not to mention what those guys will get in arbitration. Muncy will also be arbitration eligible after next season.

Muncy already eligible this year actually.

I think they have to focus more on pitching. They can't go into a playoffs any longer with Kershaw as #2. Especially with Ryu as a free agent.

I think I've posted on this here and the hot stove thread: It's a "show me" off season. One of the reasons I'm *less unhappy* with the early exit from the playoffs is because I think it removes the FO talking point that we need to stay the course and just be patient. They have to DO something, and that DO involves spending real money. A conservative look at payroll leaves about $40MM in luxury threshold space after all the current payroll, arb, other team expenses. That's one big FA.

To assure WS contention I think the Dodgers have to bring in a top line pitcher AND one more position player (corner IF or OF). Obvious rumors they could be after Cole or Rendon. I'd love to see them after both of course but if I have to pick one I'm going offense and RP. Yes, without Ryu the numbers might be worse but I think they can make the argument that Beuhler #1 and some arrangement of Kershaw/Urias/Maeda/May or Gonsolin will be good enough. This year's losses stood out as being on the streaky offense and the relievers.

But the answer to McCullough's question is going to tell us everything we need to know about Dodgers ownership this offseason.

BTW re Seager I've seen some speculation that he could be traded if Rendon is signed. Rendon at 3B, Turner at 1B, Muncy at 2B, Lux at SS. *shrug* I guess.
10-17-2019 01:12 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #58
RE: 2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread
(10-17-2019 01:12 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(10-17-2019 12:52 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-17-2019 12:47 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Column on the Athletic by Andy McCullough posing the big question: Are the Dodgers willing to spend big bucks? Turner said he's happy to move off 3B for Rendon. Thing is, Rendon's going to be asking for something approaching 7/240. Will ownership really be willing to spend that kind of money, when in a few years they'll be looking at enormous deals for Bellinger, Seager, Buehler and Urias? Not to mention what those guys will get in arbitration. Muncy will also be arbitration eligible after next season.

Muncy already eligible this year actually.

I think they have to focus more on pitching. They can't go into a playoffs any longer with Kershaw as #2. Especially with Ryu as a free agent.

I think I've posted on this here and the hot stove thread: It's a "show me" off season. One of the reasons I'm *less unhappy* with the early exit from the playoffs is because I think it removes the FO talking point that we need to stay the course and just be patient. They have to DO something, and that DO involves spending real money. A conservative look at payroll leaves about $40MM in luxury threshold space after all the current payroll, arb, other team expenses. That's one big FA.

To assure WS contention I think the Dodgers have to bring in a top line pitcher AND one more position player (corner IF or OF). Obvious rumors they could be after Cole or Rendon. I'd love to see them after both of course but if I have to pick one I'm going offense and RP. Yes, without Ryu the numbers might be worse but I think they can make the argument that Beuhler #1 and some arrangement of Kershaw/Urias/Maeda/May or Gonsolin will be good enough. This year's losses stood out as being on the streaky offense and the relievers.

But the answer to McCullough's question is going to tell us everything we need to know about Dodgers ownership this offseason.

BTW re Seager I've seen some speculation that he could be traded if Rendon is signed. Rendon at 3B, Turner at 1B, Muncy at 2B, Lux at SS. *shrug* I guess.

I just don't see a rotation with Buehler and then that arrangement being good enough- in the postseason. Kershaw probably in a postseason roster needs to be a 3 or 4- looking at the Nats staff, he'd be ahead of only Sanchez(even by fWAR- Corbin at 4.8 Kershaw at 3.4 Sanchez at 2.5). Is Urias, May, Gonsolin able to be a 2- going up against a Strasburg? Highly debatable.
10-17-2019 01:26 PM
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Brookes Owl Offline
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Post: #59
RE: 2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread
You may be right but I can easily see the Dodgers taking that approach. And if they do it has to change the narrative from Strasburg vs Dodgers SP#2 to Strasburg (or whomever) vs Dodgers offense. But this ONLY works if they bring in somebody elite like Rendon AND the rest of the lineup can be much more productive and consistent. It's a tall order but if Bellinger can calm down and play a full season with the approach he took in the first half of 2019, adding Rendon could make that a ridiculous offense.
10-17-2019 01:36 PM
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Post: #60
RE: 2019-20 MLB Off Season/Hot Stove Thread
(10-17-2019 01:36 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  You may be right but I can easily see the Dodgers taking that approach. And if they do it has to change the narrative from Strasburg vs Dodgers SP#2 to Strasburg (or whomever) vs Dodgers offense. But this ONLY works if they bring in somebody elite like Rendon AND the rest of the lineup can be much more productive and consistent. It's a tall order but if Bellinger can calm down and play a full season with the approach he took in the first half of 2019, adding Rendon could make that a ridiculous offense.

But if you have your #2 pitcher being like Kershaw this year and giving up 3 runs and 4 hits in 2 innings(with 4 LOB) I don't care how good your offense is- going up against a guy like a Strasburg is going to be tough.
10-17-2019 02:05 PM
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