Here's what I consider at least a somewhat plausible future timeline leading to a Power 4.

Fun P4 map:



2020s

• Navy (FB) from AAC to FBS Ind
• Connecticut (FB) and Massachusetts (FB) from FBS Ind to CAA
• NC A&T from MEAC to Big South
  

Early 2030s

• Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech from Big 12 to Pac-12/16
• Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, and South Florida from AAC to Big 12
• Old Dominion, Rice, UAB, and UTSA from CUSA to AAC
  

FBS 2033ish

ACC, Big Ten, MAC, MWC, SEC, and Sun Belt: no change

Pac-16: see below

AAC
East: East Carolina, Memphis, Old Dominion, UAB, Temple
West: Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UTSA
NFB: Wichita State

Big 12
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Iowa State, South Florida, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Houston, TCU

CUSA
East: Charlotte, FAU, FIU, Marshall, Western Kentucky
West: Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Southern Miss, UTEP

FBS Ind
Army* (Patriot), BYU* (WCC), Liberty* (A-Sun), Navy* (Patriot), New Mexico State* (WAC), Notre Dame* (ACC)

Late 2030s

• North Carolina and Virginia from ACC to Big Ten
• NC State and Virginia Tech from ACC to SEC
• Houston, Kansas, TCU, and West Virginia from Big 12 to ACC
• Notre Dame (FB) from FBS Ind to ACC
• Cincinnati from Big 12 to ACC
• Memphis, Old Dominion, SMU, Temple, and UAB from AAC to Big 12
• Louisiana Tech, North Texas, Southern Miss, and UTEP from CUSA to AAC
• East Carolina from AAC to CUSA
• Arkansas State and Texas State from Sun Belt to AAC
• Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and Georgia State from Sun Belt to CUSA
• Chattanooga from SoCon to Sun Belt
• Jacksonville State from OVC to Sun Belt
• Lamar from Southland to Sun Belt
• NC A&T from Big South to Sun Belt
• New Mexico State (FB) from FBS Ind to Sun Belt
  

FBS 2039ish

MAC and MWC: no change

ACC
East Pod: Boston College, Miami-FL, Notre Dame, Wake Forest
North Pod: Syracuse, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
South Pod: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Duke
West Pod: TCU, Houston, Kansas, Louisville

Big Ten
East Pod: Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State
North Pod: Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue
South Pod: Maryland, North Carolina, Rutgers, Virginia
West Pod: Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin

Pac-16
East Pod: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech
North Pod: Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South Pod: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah
West Pod: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC

SEC
East Pod: Florida, Georgia, NC State, South Carolina
North Pod: Tennessee, Virginia Tech, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
South Pod: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
West Pod: LSU, Texas A&M, Missouri, Arkansas

AAC
East: Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Tulane, Tulsa
West: North Texas, Rice, Texas State, UTEP, UTSA
NFB: Wichita State

Big 12
East: Central Florida, Old Dominion, South Florida, Temple, UAB
West: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Memphis, SMU

CUSA
North: Charlotte, East Carolina, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky
South: Appalachian State, FAU, FIU, Georgia Southern, Georgia State

Sun Belt
East: Chattanooga, Coastal Carolina, Jacksonville State, NC A&T, Troy
West: Lamar, Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State* (WAC), South Alabama
NFB: Little Rock, Texas-Arlington

FBS Ind
Army* (Patriot), BYU* (WCC), Liberty* (A-Sun), Navy* (Patriot)

Alternately, a cleaner, more direct route to the final alignment above:

2020s

• Navy (FB) from AAC to FBS Ind
• Connecticut (FB) and Massachusetts (FB) from FBS Ind to CAA
• NC A&T from MEAC to Big South
  

2030s

• Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech from Big 12 to Pac-12/16
• North Carolina and Virginia from ACC to Big Ten
• NC State and Virginia Tech from ACC to SEC
• Kansas, TCU, and West Virginia from Big 12 to ACC
• Houston from AAC to ACC
• Notre Dame (FB) from FBS Ind to ACC
• Cincinnati from AAC to ACC
• Central Florida, Memphis, SMU, South Florida, and Temple from AAC to Big 12
• Old Dominion and UAB from CUSA to Big 12
• Louisiana Tech, North Texas, Rice, Southern Miss, UTEP, and UTSA from CUSA to AAC
• East Carolina from AAC to CUSA
• Arkansas State and Texas State from Sun Belt to AAC
• Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and Georgia State from Sun Belt to CUSA
• Chattanooga from SoCon to Sun Belt
• Jacksonville State from OVC to Sun Belt
• Lamar from Southland to Sun Belt
• NC A&T from Big South to Sun Belt
• New Mexico State (FB) from FBS Ind to Sun Belt
  

(09-17-2019 12:15 PM)zoocrew Wrote:  8 Team Playoff with auto-bids to B1G, SEC, PAC, ACC champions plus an auto-bid to the best G5 champ. Essentially a 13 team playoff.

ACC

North: BC, Uconn, Syracuse, Temple, Pitt, WV, Louisville, Cincy

South: Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, GT, FSU, Miami

*ND for basketball

I don't know how other conferences will do. But ACC is the strongest on football, basketball and academics right now. Most members will choose to stay put. The only minor modification is that when Notre Dame joins as the 15th full member, ACC will also add the 16th member. It might be Cincinnati or UConn. But not both. Also West Virginia and Temple have no chance to join ACC because UNC and Virginia will never leave. So won't Virginia Tech. The only member that might leave is NC State if SEC wants them. NC State feels, by mvoing to SEC, they will no longer live under UNC's shadow.

6 Pac 12 go to Big 16, UNC UVA to SEC, Kan Okl to B1G, Tex ND w/5 FB game deal with the ACC. Pac 12 and AAC expand to 16 BKB schools.


NCAA requires 16 teams for NCAA tournament bid.

B1G
-----
East
-----
Indiana
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn State
Purdue
Rutgers

West
-----
Illinois
Iowa
Kansas
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
Oklahoma
Wisconsin



SEC
-----
East
-----
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Virginia

West
-----
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
LSU
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Missouri
Texas A&M



ACC
-----
North
-----
Boston College
Cincinnati
Louisville
Memphis
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
Temple
West Virginia

South
-----
Clemson
Duke
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Miami
North Carolina State
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest

Non-Football Members
-----
Georgetown
Notre Dame - 5-game agreement for football
Texas - 5-game agreement for football
Villanova



Big 16
-----
East
-----
Baylor
Central Florida
Iowa State
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
South Florida
Texas Christian
Texas Tech

West
-----
Arizona
California
Colorado
Oregon
Southern California
Stanford
UCLA
Washington



Pac 16
-----
West
-----
Arizona State
Oregon state
Fresno State
Hawaii
San Diego State
Washington State

East
-----
Boise State
Colorado State
Houston
New Mexico
UNLV
Utah


Non-Football Members
-----
BYU
Creighton
Gonzaga
Wichita



AAC
-----
East
-----
East Carolina
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
MTSU
Old Dominion
Tulane
Alabama-Birmingham
Western Kentucky

West
-----
Air Force
Navy - football only
Nevada
San Jose State
SMU
Tulsa
Utah State
Wyoming

Non-Football Members
-----
Loyola-Chicago



Big East - No FBS football
-----
Butler
Connecticut
Davidson
Dayton
Depaul
George Mason
Marquette
Massachussetts
Providence
Richmond
Seton Hall
St. John's
St. Joseph's
St. Louis
VCU
Xavier



Independent
-----
Army
BYU
Connecticut
Liberty
Massechussetts
New Mexico State
Notre Dame
Texas

This is clearly the dumbest thread of the week.

(09-23-2019 07:03 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  This is clearly the dumbest thread of the week.

I imagine you'd change your tune if more of these scenarios placed UCF in a power conference....

(09-17-2019 12:15 PM)zoocrew Wrote:  8 Team Playoff with auto-bids to B1G, SEC, PAC, ACC champions plus an auto-bid to the best G5 champ. Essentially a 13 team playoff.

ACC

North: BC, Uconn, Syracuse, Temple, Pitt, WV, Louisville, Cincy

South: Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, GT, FSU, Miami

*ND for basketball

B1G

East: Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, MSU, Indiana, Purdue

West: Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas. Missouri

SEC

East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky

West: Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Miss State, LSU, Arkansas, Texas A&M, TCU

PAC

East: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State

West: USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Wash State.

etc etc the rest can reorganize however.

I like It!!!

(09-23-2019 05:46 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  

(09-17-2019 12:15 PM)zoocrew Wrote:  8 Team Playoff with auto-bids to B1G, SEC, PAC, ACC champions plus an auto-bid to the best G5 champ. Essentially a 13 team playoff.

ACC

North: BC, Uconn, Syracuse, Temple, Pitt, WV, Louisville, Cincy

South: Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, GT, FSU, Miami

*ND for basketball

B1G

East: Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, MSU, Indiana, Purdue

West: Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas. Missouri

SEC

East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky

West: Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Miss State, LSU, Arkansas, Texas A&M, TCU

PAC

East: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State

West: USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Wash State.

etc etc the rest can reorganize however.

I like It!!!

I'd say trade UConn for Notre Dame in full. Also, with 16, you've got to go with pods.

(09-20-2019 09:56 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Here's what I consider at least a somewhat plausible future timeline leading to a Power 4.

Fun P4 map:

I like it. Not that I think it would happen that way but the most intriguing thing is the timeline you put out. By the 2030s the demographic changes will make certain moves more palatable, therefore no longer unthinkable. A school like Virginia would not look out of place by then because the alumni would be much more open to Big Ten membership, plus decades of hobnobbing with alumni from long-time members.

A few questions from me:

- How could we possibly know that ND would be ready for full membership in a conference that is considerably changed from current membership? There would have to be some assurance that they won't be competitively disadvantaged in a conference that loses two/three more original members. I understand any port in a storm but the Eye-rish are never without options.

- Could the PAC and the Longhorns come to an agreement satisfactory to both sides? Like ND, UT also has options. I know about the Tech issue but would that still be the case in the 2030s? Then there's the Okie State academics. Travel is another concern for programs out West.

- How likely would a Kansas be if two traditional basketball powers leave? They might hope that the Big Ten or SEC picks them but they might not be picked by either of them. Hard to tell what can happen next.

(09-27-2019 02:45 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(09-20-2019 09:56 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Here's what I consider at least a somewhat plausible future timeline leading to a Power 4.

Fun P4 map:

I like it. Not that I think it would happen that way but the most intriguing thing is the timeline you put out. By the 2030s the demographic changes will make certain moves more palatable, therefore no longer unthinkable. A school like Virginia would not look out of place by then because the alumni would be much more open to Big Ten membership, plus decades of hobnobbing with alumni from long-time members.

A few questions from me:

- How could we possibly know that ND would be ready for full membership in a conference that is considerably changed from current membership? There would have to be some assurance that they won't be competitively disadvantaged in a conference that loses two/three more original members. I understand any port in a storm but the Eye-rish are never without options.

- Could the PAC and the Longhorns come to an agreement satisfactory to both sides? Like ND, UT also has options. I know about the Tech issue but would that still be the case in the 2030s? Then there's the Okie State academics. Travel is another concern for programs out West.

- How likely would a Kansas be if two traditional basketball powers leave? They might hope that the Big Ten or SEC picks them but they might not be picked by either of them. Hard to tell what can happen next.

In this hypothetical scenario, despite the Big 12 surviving the expiration of its current GoR intact, the CFP remains at 4 teams rather than expanding to 8. As such, when the Big 12 finally does kick the bucket as a power conference, we have either a de facto or a de jure CFP autobid for each of the P4 conference champs. Thus Notre Dame is compelled to join a conference in full or effectively be shut out of the CFP. Even without the public NC and VA schools, the ACC is still a competitive conference that offers access to Southern recruiting grounds (expanding into Texas adds to this) and would be ND's likely pick to join. I'm sure they'll expect and receive some special immunity from penalties for leaving the conference.

I'm thinking by the 2030s, the Pac will have come to realize that they cannot compete financially with the Big Ten and SEC unless they net UT. So they give UT a very generous offer, accommodating the Longhorn Network in some form and adding OU (which is also to the Pac's benefit). They also pinch their noses and permit TT and OSU to tag along, as they would have in the early 2010s.

The Big Ten and SEC will be satisfied with their eastern adds for the time being and will not be focused on small-population Kansas, even if KU has improved its football program significantly by then. So KU will gratefully accept the lifeline thrown to them by the restocking ACC, despite the awkward geography and little brother being left behind.

(10-05-2019 09:42 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  In this hypothetical scenario, despite the Big 12 surviving the expiration of its current GoR intact, the CFP remains at 4 teams rather than expanding to 8. As such, when the Big 12 finally does kick the bucket as a power conference, we have either a de facto or a de jure CFP autobid for each of the P4 conference champs. Thus Notre Dame is compelled to join a conference in full or effectively be shut out of the CFP. Even without the public NC and VA schools, the ACC is still a competitive conference that offers access to Southern recruiting grounds (expanding into Texas adds to this) and would be ND's likely pick to join. I'm sure they'll expect and receive some special immunity from penalties for leaving the conference.

I'm thinking by the 2030s, the Pac will have come to realize that they cannot compete financially with the Big Ten and SEC unless they net UT. So they give UT a very generous offer, accommodating the Longhorn Network in some form and adding OU (which is also to the Pac's benefit). They also pinch their noses and permit TT and OSU to tag along, as they would have in the early 2010s.

The Big Ten and SEC will be satisfied with their eastern adds for the time being and will not be focused on small-population Kansas, even if KU has improved its football program significantly by then. So KU will gratefully accept the lifeline thrown to them by the restocking ACC, despite the awkward geography and little brother being left behind.

Could not the PAC make that offer sooner? I know administrators have tons of pride and don't want to admit that they don't have a strong position but everyone else know that they have to get into the Central Time Zone.

I have read that one of the reasons why UNC didn't leave at the last opportunity was that they didn't like the culture of the SEC and didn't want State to get stronger at their expense. Also, the way the state colleges at NC is organized is complicated. Yes, things could change in fifteen years but it would take a lot get them off that position.

This California endorsement bill is going to ultimately affect realignment more than anything else. We may have a P-1 or a P-2 after it's all said and done.

(10-07-2019 02:53 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  This California endorsement bill is going to ultimately affect realignment more than anything else. We may have a P-1 or a P-2 after it's all said and done.

I think we could definitely move to a P3 but a P2 is not out of the question. P1 leaves too many legal issues. The appearance of fluidity in affiliation will be necessary to maintain.

(10-07-2019 02:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-07-2019 02:53 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  This California endorsement bill is going to ultimately affect realignment more than anything else. We may have a P-1 or a P-2 after it's all said and done.

I think we could definitely move to a P3 but a P2 is not out of the question. P1 leaves too many legal issues. The appearance of fluidity in affiliation will be necessary to maintain.

Well we already have a power 4-The Big 10, The Big 12, The SEC West and the SEC East.

(09-22-2019 05:25 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Alternately, a cleaner, more direct route to the final alignment above:

2020s

• Navy (FB) from AAC to FBS Ind
• Connecticut (FB) and Massachusetts (FB) from FBS Ind to CAA
• NC A&T from MEAC to Big South
  

2030s

• Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech from Big 12 to Pac-12/16
• North Carolina and Virginia from ACC to Big Ten
• NC State and Virginia Tech from ACC to SEC
• Kansas, TCU, and West Virginia from Big 12 to ACC
• Houston from AAC to ACC
• Notre Dame (FB) from FBS Ind to ACC
• Cincinnati from AAC to ACC
• Central Florida, Memphis, SMU, South Florida, and Temple from AAC to Big 12
• Old Dominion and UAB from CUSA to Big 12
• Louisiana Tech, North Texas, Rice, Southern Miss, UTEP, and UTSA from CUSA to AAC
• East Carolina from AAC to CUSA
• Arkansas State and Texas State from Sun Belt to AAC
• Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and Georgia State from Sun Belt to CUSA
• Chattanooga from SoCon to Sun Belt
• Jacksonville State from OVC to Sun Belt
• Lamar from Southland to Sun Belt
• NC A&T from Big South to Sun Belt
• New Mexico State (FB) from FBS Ind to Sun Belt
  

In light of the news on UConn's 2020 football schedule and the latest article from Wilner on the PAC-12's future, do you make changes to this scenario?

(11-01-2019 01:42 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(09-22-2019 05:25 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Alternately, a cleaner, more direct route to the final alignment above:

2020s

• Navy (FB) from AAC to FBS Ind
• Connecticut (FB) and Massachusetts (FB) from FBS Ind to CAA
• NC A&T from MEAC to Big South
  

2030s

• Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech from Big 12 to Pac-12/16
• North Carolina and Virginia from ACC to Big Ten
• NC State and Virginia Tech from ACC to SEC
• Kansas, TCU, and West Virginia from Big 12 to ACC
• Houston from AAC to ACC
• Notre Dame (FB) from FBS Ind to ACC
• Cincinnati from AAC to ACC
• Central Florida, Memphis, SMU, South Florida, and Temple from AAC to Big 12
• Old Dominion and UAB from CUSA to Big 12
• Louisiana Tech, North Texas, Rice, Southern Miss, UTEP, and UTSA from CUSA to AAC
• East Carolina from AAC to CUSA
• Arkansas State and Texas State from Sun Belt to AAC
• Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and Georgia State from Sun Belt to CUSA
• Chattanooga from SoCon to Sun Belt
• Jacksonville State from OVC to Sun Belt
• Lamar from Southland to Sun Belt
• NC A&T from Big South to Sun Belt
• New Mexico State (FB) from FBS Ind to Sun Belt
  

In light of the news on UConn's 2020 football schedule and the latest article from Wilner on the PAC-12's future, do you make changes to this scenario?

UConn and UMass might linger on as FBS indies, but otherwise no change.

(09-17-2019 01:04 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(09-17-2019 12:26 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  BIG TEN
Adds Virginia and North Carolina

SEC
Adds Virginia Tech and NC State

BIG XII
Adds Clemson, Florida State, Miami and Georgia Tech

PAC-12
Stays at 12

The ACC leftovers Pitt, Syracuse, Duke, Wake Forest, Boston College and Louisville add four to six of the following: Houston, SMU, Tulane, Memphis, Cincinnati, Temple, the Florida twins and UConn. The ACC gets the Big East treatment (the conference they destroyed) and gets demoted.

There's enough there in that "ACC leftover" to prevent it from getting the "Big East treatment" imho, especially when you consider the basketball prowess that conference would have.

The ACC leftover schools that would be getting the BE treatment are mostly former BE schools. The ACC schools that gave the BE the treatment in the first place, are mostly promoted to the P4.

(11-01-2019 07:53 AM)mikeinsec127 Wrote:  

(09-17-2019 01:04 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(09-17-2019 12:26 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  BIG TEN
Adds Virginia and North Carolina

SEC
Adds Virginia Tech and NC State

BIG XII
Adds Clemson, Florida State, Miami and Georgia Tech

PAC-12
Stays at 12

The ACC leftovers Pitt, Syracuse, Duke, Wake Forest, Boston College and Louisville add four to six of the following: Houston, SMU, Tulane, Memphis, Cincinnati, Temple, the Florida twins and UConn. The ACC gets the Big East treatment (the conference they destroyed) and gets demoted.

There's enough there in that "ACC leftover" to prevent it from getting the "Big East treatment" imho, especially when you consider the basketball prowess that conference would have.

The ACC leftover schools that would be getting the BE treatment are mostly former BE schools. The ACC schools that gave the BE the treatment in the first place, are mostly promoted to the P4.

In light of the Jon Wilner article, perhaps you are right. That being said, its likely only 30-40 schools from the current P5 are going to be in the upper division of the future NFL-Lite version of CFB. Me thinks that there were still be plenty of people watching the real deal that will include the 24-30 left behind P5 programs and what currently constitutes the G5. Btw, it will be fun being associated with Rutgers again when this all shakes out.