(09-16-2019 09:02 AM)tigernole79 Wrote:  That AZ State jumped us is crazy. They had 2 votes prior to playing Michigan State #18, now have 110 votes. Temple got 7 votes for beating #21 Maryland.

I agree that Air Force would likely jump us because they've beaten BSU and Colorado, but since they aren't even receiving votes now... it might be more of a Temple situation, since they aren't P5 and get the benefit of the doubt.

Pac-12 has 6 ranked teams

AP poll is horseshiat.

(09-16-2019 08:50 AM)tigernole79 Wrote:  Boise State is NOT that good. They won't be undefeated at the end of the season.

The AAC by almost every metric is better than the MWC. It really is close to P6 status.

I think the point is that is patently untrue in terms of by any metric

The MWC is 7-9 against P5
The AAC is 4-10

That is one pretty important metric that favors them

I get that nuance is dead, and I agree that IN SPITE of their significantly better record that the top AAC teams are stronger but the idea this is obvious is absurd

(09-15-2019 03:29 PM)tigernole79 Wrote:  They won't be for long. IF Memphis goes undefeated, it means we will beat multiple teams that are receiving votes or UCF. Either way, it's more impressive than anything Boise will do this season.

Bet you $100 they won't drop behind us unless they lose a game. That's how this has always worked.

These two polls mean absolutely nothing. Right now the job is to keep winning to be in position to get in the first CFP poll in November.

and we're moving on up....

(09-16-2019 10:48 AM)BandwagonJumper Wrote:  

(09-16-2019 09:02 AM)tigernole79 Wrote:  That AZ State jumped us is crazy. They had 2 votes prior to playing Michigan State #18, now have 110 votes. Temple got 7 votes for beating #21 Maryland.

I agree that Air Force would likely jump us because they've beaten BSU and Colorado, but since they aren't even receiving votes now... it might be more of a Temple situation, since they aren't P5 and get the benefit of the doubt.

Pac-12 has 6 ranked teams

AP poll is horseshiat.

West coast bias!

(09-16-2019 11:27 AM)TonyDaTiger Wrote:  

(09-15-2019 03:29 PM)tigernole79 Wrote:  They won't be for long. IF Memphis goes undefeated, it means we will beat multiple teams that are receiving votes or UCF. Either way, it's more impressive than anything Boise will do this season.

Bet you $100 they won't drop behind us unless they lose a game. That's how this has always worked.

If they are in the mid teens and we aren't that far behind. We play a Top 10 ranked UCF and beat them... you don't think we jump Boise State?!

(09-15-2019 08:29 PM)Mimi Wrote:  The MWC has been better than the AAC so far this season

Without analyzing these, their record against P5/ND is much better, recognizing that who plays who etc. matter

MWC 7-9
AAC 4-10
CUSA 0-12
MAC 1-13
Sun Belt 2-7

AAC schools have beaten:

UCLA
Stanford
Maryland
Mississippi

Lost to:

@Ohio State
Wisconsin
@ Georgia Tech
@ NC State
Illinois
@ Oklahoma
Wash State
@ Auburn
@ Mich State
OK State

MWC schools have beaten:

@Florida State
@Colorado
Missouri
@UCLA
Arizona
Oregon State
Purdue

Lost to:

@ Wake Forest
Colorado
@ Arkansas
@ Notre Dame
@ USC
@ Minnesota
@ Washington
@ Oregon
@ Northwestern

It is arguable that Memphis, UCF, Cincy, Houston, Temple and even Navy are as good or better than Boise State, but as a whole tough to argue our conference has been better. Should Boise State remain undefeated that bodes well for them

We do have a head to win, Tulsa won @ San Jose State

I kind iof think in spite of the big difference in records that the American is still better but it is by zero means definitive and 7-9 against 4-10 speaks loudly

Yeah but we lost to much better teams...4 out of the 10 losses are to ranked teams in the top 15

(09-15-2019 08:29 PM)Mimi Wrote:  The MWC has been better than the AAC so far this season

...

I kind iof think in spite of the big difference in records that the American is still better but it is by zero means definitive and 7-9 against 4-10 speaks loudly

Better to use an algorithm metric rather than blind records.

CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN
1 SEC-WEST (A) = 85.41
2 BIG TEN-E (A) = 80.57
3 BIG 12 (A) = 79.56
4 SEC-EAST (A) = 78.58
5 PAC-12-N (A) = 78.07
6 ACC-COA (A) = 74.51
7 ACC-ATL (A) = 74.47
8 PAC-12-S (A) = 73.57
9 BIG TEN-W (A) = 73.38
10 AAC WEST (A) = 71.37
11 MWC-MTN (A) = 68.31
12 AAC EAST (A) = 64.05
13 MAC-WEST (A) = 62.05
14 SUN BELT-E (A) = 61.40
15 MWC-WEST (A) = 61.35

According to Sagarin, the AAC West (our best division) is closer to the Pac 12 South and the B1G West, than to the MWC-Mountain (their best division). And the MAC West and the Sun Belt East are ahead of the MWC West.

The MWC is not better than the AAC. If we win out - including the AAC CCG, we will have victories over the current AP #15 and #33. BSU will have a victory over #32.

The combo of a top 15ish win, plus the stronger conference should be enough to push us ahead.

Agree with that

They have the better P5 record but overall our conference seems stronger whether Boise State singularly is the best or not

I was unclear that I mean by any metric the pollsters, ESPN talking heads, those that make the Playoff Poll use, the AAC is stronger.

Don't forget, the AP poll means nothing to Access Bowl. It is the highest ranked G5 Conference Champion in the Playoff Poll. When we beat UCF (IF we play them), we will be in that spot. There will have to be a highly ranked MWC team for Boise to play to come close to equaling us. I don't see that happening, of course I don't see Boise going undefeated. They aren't as good as previous teams.