Texas 59
Rice 3

I notice that most prediction s have the Owls scoring 3, 10, or 17. I guess there is a lot of confidence in our FG game.

(09-13-2019 02:23 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I notice that most prediction s have the Owls scoring 3, 10, or 17. I guess there is a lot of confidence in our FG game.

I figure getting one of three should happen.

Just a miserable game, except we don't quit. Not enough Div 1 players, yet.
ut: 49
RICE: 7

(09-13-2019 09:43 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(09-13-2019 08:10 AM)owl40 Wrote:  

(09-11-2019 11:54 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(09-11-2019 04:48 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  

(09-11-2019 04:16 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  How close do we have to be to count this as another moral victory?

50

Seriously, I think you at least have to cover for a moral victory. a 24 point loss might do.

I think moral victory and covering spread are two different things. Moral victory is a game where we look competitive and ready to play. The 1H against A&M a few years ago comes to mind as one of those moments. We may not cover the spread but we look like we belong on the field. Sometimes (most of time) that may mean you also cover-the-spread but the proverbial 'back door cover' where we are not competitive and UT calls off the dogs in 2H and we get a couple cheap TD's and cover the spread is not a moral victory.

Moral victories are lead indicators of a program making small steps and progress to its stated goals (win C-USA and get into the Top 25 someday). I would like to see both a moral victory and a spread cover tomorrow but would expect the latter, not the former. Need a QB to make plays in this type of game and we have a game manager. Expect UT to get out early big and then call off the dogs for some late scoring for the Owls to make the game look closer than it really was.

Game never in doubt and never closer than 2TD's at any point beyond first few min of first quarter but Owls cover 45-17 after Horns cruising 45-7 going into 4Q.

Moral victories aren't worth a bucket of warm spit, IMO. They are just a shade better than total routs.

A couple of days ago a teasip asked me how rice was doing: How do you answer that? We are winning moral victories?

Moral victories are for short term memory. Long term, it is just the W's that get remembered.

If Michigan had made that last second field goal against AppSt., nobody would be talking about that game and the great moral victory.

I guess moral victories are the breadcrumbs we Owls have to feast on. Better a 45-28 moral victory than a 62-3 loss, but after a few weeks all anybody will remember is W-L.

I have been a fan of Rice for 56 years, and I am sick and tired of moral victories. Moral victories are like eating broccoli.

You've made it very clear how you feel about finding "positives" in defeat. We understand your position.

Tomorrow night we will lose to Texas. There's no fallacy in hoping to, at least, see the team play well and lose by 21 than get embarrassed by 56.

Given the last four years of complete stink, some of us are looking for anything that gives us hope, even if it's performing well against insurmountable odds.

(09-14-2019 01:03 AM)Ourland Wrote:  

(09-13-2019 09:43 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(09-13-2019 08:10 AM)owl40 Wrote:  

(09-11-2019 11:54 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(09-11-2019 04:48 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  50

Seriously, I think you at least have to cover for a moral victory. a 24 point loss might do.

I think moral victory and covering spread are two different things. Moral victory is a game where we look competitive and ready to play. The 1H against A&M a few years ago comes to mind as one of those moments. We may not cover the spread but we look like we belong on the field. Sometimes (most of time) that may mean you also cover-the-spread but the proverbial 'back door cover' where we are not competitive and UT calls off the dogs in 2H and we get a couple cheap TD's and cover the spread is not a moral victory.

Moral victories are lead indicators of a program making small steps and progress to its stated goals (win C-USA and get into the Top 25 someday). I would like to see both a moral victory and a spread cover tomorrow but would expect the latter, not the former. Need a QB to make plays in this type of game and we have a game manager. Expect UT to get out early big and then call off the dogs for some late scoring for the Owls to make the game look closer than it really was.

Game never in doubt and never closer than 2TD's at any point beyond first few min of first quarter but Owls cover 45-17 after Horns cruising 45-7 going into 4Q.

Moral victories aren't worth a bucket of warm spit, IMO. They are just a shade better than total routs.

A couple of days ago a teasip asked me how rice was doing: How do you answer that? We are winning moral victories?

Moral victories are for short term memory. Long term, it is just the W's that get remembered.

If Michigan had made that last second field goal against AppSt., nobody would be talking about that game and the great moral victory.

I guess moral victories are the breadcrumbs we Owls have to feast on. Better a 45-28 moral victory than a 62-3 loss, but after a few weeks all anybody will remember is W-L.

I have been a fan of Rice for 56 years, and I am sick and tired of moral victories. Moral victories are like eating broccoli.

You've made it very clear how you feel about finding "positives" in defeat. We understand your position.

Tomorrow night we will lose to Texas. There's no fallacy in hoping to, at least, see the team play well and lose by 21 than get embarrassed by 56.

Given the last four years of complete stink, some of us are looking for anything that gives us hope, even if it's performing well against insurmountable odds.

I too would prefer to see them lose by 21 than by 56. My point is after a few weeks, either is just another L in the W-L. Remember the great one point loss to UH to open Toad’s career? How about the great 30-31 loss to Texas when Peter Gardere grew gorilla arms? How about the great one point loss to Baylor when a 2 point try that would have sent us to a bowl did not work? How about the great two point loss to TCU when a tie would have given us a SWC championship? How about...oh the list is long.

You and I, as Rice fans, will remember those, but the world doesn’t.. At best, the will remember the X-Y record, where those moral victories are part of the Y.

Are moral victories harbingers of better things to come? Sure hope so, but they are an unreliable leading indicator. We have had lots of moral victories that led nowhere.

In any event , I am not celebrating them. You can feel free to go out and paint the town blue is you want. Yay us! Only a 21 point loss. Wow! Gimme another beer.

Personally, I am expecting a 38 point loss. I am not sure at what point I should be celebrating. 24? 35?

But I will be watching. Because I am a Rice fan, and have been for over half a century. I was at two of the games I mentioned. With respect as one Owl fan to another, You judge Outcomes your way, and I will do so my way.

Go Owls! Beat Texas!

My prediction:
Rice wins by a score of 10e to 9e.

Also I will be rolling out my new “moral victory” metric which is rated based on the area under the curve of
f(t) = 2*(1-G(t))*P(t),
Where
G(t) is the percentage of the regulation game time remaining, and
P(t) is the ESPN win probability at point t in the game.

P(0) is .025 for this game. (2.5% FPI win probability). Which sounds about right since I’m the only 1 I’ve seen in ~40 posters who’ve picked Rice.

(09-14-2019 03:58 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  My prediction:
Rice wins by a score of 10e to 9e.

Also I will be rolling out my new “moral victory” metric which is rated based on the area under the curve of
f(t) = 2*(1-G(t))*P(t),
Where
G(t) is the percentage of the regulation game time remaining, and
P(t) is the ESPN win probability at point t in the game.

P(0) is .025 for this game. (2.5% FPI win probability). Which sounds about right since I’m the only 1 I’ve seen in ~40 posters who’ve picked Rice.

So no moral victory until the game starts?

(09-14-2019 03:58 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  My prediction:
Rice wins by a score of 10e to 9e.

Also I will be rolling out my new “moral victory” metric which is rated based on the area under the curve of
f(t) = 2*(1-G(t))*P(t),
Where
G(t) is the percentage of the regulation game time remaining, and
P(t) is the ESPN win probability at point t in the game.

P(0) is .025 for this game. (2.5% FPI win probability). Which sounds about right since I’m the only 1 I’ve seen in ~40 posters who’ve picked Rice.

Speak English for us Behavioral Science majors.

(09-14-2019 09:57 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(09-14-2019 01:03 AM)Ourland Wrote:  

(09-13-2019 09:43 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(09-13-2019 08:10 AM)owl40 Wrote:  

(09-11-2019 11:54 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Seriously, I think you at least have to cover for a moral victory. a 24 point loss might do.

I think moral victory and covering spread are two different things. Moral victory is a game where we look competitive and ready to play. The 1H against A&M a few years ago comes to mind as one of those moments. We may not cover the spread but we look like we belong on the field. Sometimes (most of time) that may mean you also cover-the-spread but the proverbial 'back door cover' where we are not competitive and UT calls off the dogs in 2H and we get a couple cheap TD's and cover the spread is not a moral victory.

Moral victories are lead indicators of a program making small steps and progress to its stated goals (win C-USA and get into the Top 25 someday). I would like to see both a moral victory and a spread cover tomorrow but would expect the latter, not the former. Need a QB to make plays in this type of game and we have a game manager. Expect UT to get out early big and then call off the dogs for some late scoring for the Owls to make the game look closer than it really was.

Game never in doubt and never closer than 2TD's at any point beyond first few min of first quarter but Owls cover 45-17 after Horns cruising 45-7 going into 4Q.

Moral victories aren't worth a bucket of warm spit, IMO. They are just a shade better than total routs.

A couple of days ago a teasip asked me how rice was doing: How do you answer that? We are winning moral victories?

Moral victories are for short term memory. Long term, it is just the W's that get remembered.

If Michigan had made that last second field goal against AppSt., nobody would be talking about that game and the great moral victory.

I guess moral victories are the breadcrumbs we Owls have to feast on. Better a 45-28 moral victory than a 62-3 loss, but after a few weeks all anybody will remember is W-L.

I have been a fan of Rice for 56 years, and I am sick and tired of moral victories. Moral victories are like eating broccoli.

You've made it very clear how you feel about finding "positives" in defeat. We understand your position.

Tomorrow night we will lose to Texas. There's no fallacy in hoping to, at least, see the team play well and lose by 21 than get embarrassed by 56.

Given the last four years of complete stink, some of us are looking for anything that gives us hope, even if it's performing well against insurmountable odds.

I too would prefer to see them lose by 21 than by 56. My point is after a few weeks, either is just another L in the W-L. Remember the great one point loss to UH to open Toad’s career? How about the great 30-31 loss to Texas when Peter Gardere grew gorilla arms? How about the great one point loss to Baylor when a 2 point try that would have sent us to a bowl did not work? How about the great two point loss to TCU when a tie would have given us a SWC championship? How about...oh the list is long.

You and I, as Rice fans, will remember those, but the world doesn’t.. At best, the will remember the X-Y record, where those moral victories are part of the Y.

Are moral victories harbingers of better things to come? Sure hope so, but they are an unreliable leading indicator. We have had lots of moral victories that led nowhere.

In any event , I am not celebrating them. You can feel free to go out and paint the town blue is you want. Yay us! Only a 21 point loss. Wow! Gimme another beer.

Personally, I am expecting a 38 point loss. I am not sure at what point I should be celebrating. 24? 35?

But I will be watching. Because I am a Rice fan, and have been for over half a century. I was at two of the games I mentioned. With respect as one Owl fan to another, You judge Outcomes your way, and I will do so my way.

Go Owls! Beat Texas!

I'm going to look for silver linings every chance I get, especially given the state of the program right now. They're never reason to celebrate, but they definitely give me confidence that things are going in the right direction when I see them.

We're only predicted to win two games by most people. In season's like these, the micro accomplishments are meaningful.

But yes, let's judge outcomes independently, and let's go get this big upset tonight.

(09-14-2019 04:12 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(09-14-2019 03:58 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  My prediction:
Rice wins by a score of 10e to 9e.

Also I will be rolling out my new “moral victory” metric which is rated based on the area under the curve of
f(t) = 2*(1-G(t))*P(t),
Where
G(t) is the percentage of the regulation game time remaining, and
P(t) is the ESPN win probability at point t in the game.

P(0) is .025 for this game. (2.5% FPI win probability). Which sounds about right since I’m the only 1 I’ve seen in ~40 posters who’ve picked Rice.

Speak English for us Behavioral Science majors.

Translation: you’ll know it when you see it.

However if I showed you a picture it might make sense. I don’t have the tools to do the graphs this weekend but if we somehow end up 0-4 maybe I’ll draw it up all pretty to get everybody pumped up for conference play

Catheter ad is back

(09-14-2019 06:47 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(09-14-2019 04:12 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(09-14-2019 03:58 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  My prediction:
Rice wins by a score of 10e to 9e.

Also I will be rolling out my new “moral victory” metric which is rated based on the area under the curve of
f(t) = 2*(1-G(t))*P(t),
Where
G(t) is the percentage of the regulation game time remaining, and
P(t) is the ESPN win probability at point t in the game.

P(0) is .025 for this game. (2.5% FPI win probability). Which sounds about right since I’m the only 1 I’ve seen in ~40 posters who’ve picked Rice.

Speak English for us Behavioral Science majors.

Translation: you’ll know it when you see it.

However if I showed you a picture it might make sense. I don’t have the tools to do the graphs this weekend but if we somehow end up 0-4 maybe I’ll draw it up all pretty to get everybody pumped up for conference play

I’ll keep an eye out for it, then.

Oh look what I came up with on my phone!

We’ll leave out the calculus and just look at the maximum point of the ‘how excited’ curve.

If we actually win the game then we finish out with 200 at the end (2x100).
If the game is a 50/50 tossup at halftime (but get blown out thereafter) then the max at halftime would be 50.

If we go up big early (say 21-0) and have an 80% chance after 1Q but tank after that then our max is 80/2 = 40.

The closer we make it to the end of the game with a realistic “chance” of winning, the better it feels. That’s exactly what a moral victory is.

Unless we start out with a game we should win and then lose. That’s a topic for another thesis

Sorry, OATM, I got my math credit in summer school at TCU.