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Race for the NY6 Week 2
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Fishpro10987 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Race for the NY6 Week 2
(09-04-2019 01:06 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(09-03-2019 09:46 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  
(09-03-2019 07:47 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  If Cincy beats the Suckeyes and doesn’t screw up, it is theirs.

[Image: giphy.gif]

WTF? If UC somehow pulls it out against Top 5 ranked Ohio State on the road (after beating UCLA) and then runs the table I find it hard to believe the pollsters would put in anyone else over them in the access spot.

The only other school who I could see over them would be an undefeated Boise State, but in a hypothetical that both schools run the table Cincinnati's schedule would elevate them over Boise in the polls (with wins over UCLA, Ohio State, Marshall, UCF, USF, Houston and Memphis- one of the later two twice).

Yes but Cincy's loss to Temple will hurt them.
09-05-2019 01:08 AM
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toddjnsn Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Race for the NY6 Week 2
Quote:An undefeated Cincy is a LOCK for NY6 and it’s not close. Feels like arguing just to argue.

I could say almost the same for a couple other teams who aren't in the P6 Race (although have before in the past) -- which would at least take the 100%-level "lock" out of Cinci's. But why not say that? Because I think it's unrealistic that they do go undefeated.

Much the same as I don't think Cinci's going undefeated either, although they do have a better chance than others who have a tougher SoS than they can handle like Cinci does.
09-05-2019 02:00 AM
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AppfanInCAAland Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Race for the NY6 Week 2
(09-04-2019 06:58 PM)Pir8inRichmond Wrote:  An undefeated Cincy is a LOCK for NY6 and it’s not close. Feels like arguing just to argue.

If any AAC team comes out of the championship game undefeated, that team would be a lock for the NY6. If Boise is also undefeated MWC champ, there would be some debate but it would go to the undefeated AAC champ in the end.

The real debate will be if the AAC and MWC produce a 1 loss champ but App or Troy is undefeated SBC champ (or an undefeated MAC or CUSA champ, but I don't see that happening).

This interesting site gives (among other things) chances of going undefeated. https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/projections/standings/
The only G5 team with at least 20% chance of going undefeated is Boise, and I agree they have the best shot. After that, three other teams have at least a 5% chance - UCF, Memphis, and App State. Cincinnati, Marshall, Troy, Ohio, and Air Force have about 2% chance (rounded).
(This post was last modified: 09-05-2019 07:09 AM by AppfanInCAAland.)
09-05-2019 06:54 AM
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CliftonAve Online
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Post: #24
RE: Race for the NY6 Week 2
(09-05-2019 02:00 AM)toddjnsn Wrote:  
Quote:An undefeated Cincy is a LOCK for NY6 and it’s not close. Feels like arguing just to argue.

I could say almost the same for a couple other teams who aren't in the P6 Race (although have before in the past) -- which would at least take the 100%-level "lock" out of Cinci's. But why not say that? Because I think it's unrealistic that they do go undefeated.

Much the same as I don't think Cinci's going undefeated either, although they do have a better chance than others who have a tougher SoS than they can handle like Cinci does.

The point being debated is the hypothetical scenario UC is undefeated along with another undefeated G5. My premise is that an undefeated UC with wins over Ohio State, UCLA, UCF, Houston and Memphis would win out for the NY6 over any other undefeated G5.

The argument someone else made about OSU needing to "win out" (meaning go 12-1) is ludicrous. Hell, even a eventual 9-3 win over Ohio State, on the road, would be a better win that anyone else in the G5 would have this year. UC isn't playing a bad TN or FSU team this weekend.
09-05-2019 08:05 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Race for the NY6 Week 2
(09-05-2019 08:05 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(09-05-2019 02:00 AM)toddjnsn Wrote:  
Quote:An undefeated Cincy is a LOCK for NY6 and it’s not close. Feels like arguing just to argue.

I could say almost the same for a couple other teams who aren't in the P6 Race (although have before in the past) -- which would at least take the 100%-level "lock" out of Cinci's. But why not say that? Because I think it's unrealistic that they do go undefeated.

Much the same as I don't think Cinci's going undefeated either, although they do have a better chance than others who have a tougher SoS than they can handle like Cinci does.

The point being debated is the hypothetical scenario UC is undefeated along with another undefeated G5. My premise is that an undefeated UC with wins over Ohio State, UCLA, UCF, Houston and Memphis would win out for the NY6 over any other undefeated G5.

I agree that is likely. But not certain. E.g., what if Ohio State has a stinker season and finishes up 7-5? A UC win over them wouldn't look very impressive. In contrast, what if FSU catches fire and finishes 10-2 and in a NY6 bowl? Then Boise's win would carry a lot of weight.

That's what it boils down to, because with the MW and AAC likely to be equal in overall strength, UC wins over UCF/Houston/Memphis won't be worth any more than Boise wins over the top MW teams.

If an AAC and MW team are both unbeaten, it will boil down to who has the best win over a P5. On paper, it looks like nobody can match a UC win over Ohio State, but that's making big assumptions about how good OS will be.
(This post was last modified: 09-05-2019 09:37 AM by quo vadis.)
09-05-2019 09:37 AM
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toddjnsn Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Race for the NY6 Week 2
Quote:My premise is that an undefeated UC with wins over Ohio State, UCLA, UCF, Houston and Memphis would win out for the NY6 over any other undefeated G5.

Yeah, I know. Like I said -- most likely pick, but a 100% lock, given ANY G5 who's ever battled for one of their conference titles in recent years and wasn't a bottom-barrel last year?

Things can sneak up on ya. Early in the season it's easy to say something pretty bold when things don't quite work out that way.

What if WMU goes undefeated -- but Michigan State wins the B1G (1L), and Syracuse upsets and wins the ACC (1L) -- while GA-State who beat Tennessee wins the Sun Belt (1L), while the MAC has a great year with NIU pulling upsets on Utah or Nebraska (again), etc, while Ohio State having a bit of a disappointing year (8-4; loses to Michigan/MSU/Cinci/Wisc-or-PSU)? All while the AAC don't get any clutch wins and UCF taking a few licks? Not so easy then.

Of course, FAR from easy for that to happen so I wouldn't bet on that -- and I would bet on Cinci to be the one if there's multiple undefeated G5 Conf Champs.

Heck, I hope there are! I hope Boise/Nevada/Wyoming, Cinci/UCF/Memphis, WMU/NIU/Ohio, SMiss all go undefeated with 4 undefeated G5 conferences. It would push for an expanded playoff QUICK. But super-duper-duper unrealistic.
(This post was last modified: 09-05-2019 05:46 PM by toddjnsn.)
09-05-2019 05:45 PM
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Bronco'14 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Race for the NY6 Week 2
Cincinnati isn't going to beat Ohio St.

Also, lot of the AAC teams seem good (i.e. lot of parity) this could be a year where the AAC champ has 2 losses and is ranked behind an undefeated MW/CUSA/SB/MAC champ.
(This post was last modified: 09-05-2019 06:31 PM by Bronco'14.)
09-05-2019 06:29 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #28
Race for the NY6 Week 2
24 posts in and still no mention of CUSA’s #1 Ranked team, Rice?!

You’re probably thinking last week’s loss at Army ‘disqualifies’ them (and in most cases for CUSA you’d be right) but take another look at Rice’s OOC schedule: three P5s coming up in a three week HOMESTAND. At least two of those are winnable and the third, well, we’re overdue for an upset of Texas.

Wrap it all up 12-1 and who in G5 has a better resume? Especially if Texas ends up actually being any good.

You read it here first folx. When we blow out Wake Forest tomorrow you’ll remember this post!
09-05-2019 07:16 PM
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Jjoey52 Offline
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Post: #29
Race for the NY6 Week 2
Rice is not going to beat Wake Forest, you heard it here first.


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09-05-2019 08:36 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #30
Race for the NY6 Week 2
(09-05-2019 08:36 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  Rice is not going to beat Wake Forest, you heard it here first.


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Well, kwap.

They torched us last year, but that was on the road and they had the element of surprise as we hadn’t played in years. I thought just maybe at home, we show em a thing or two.

I will admit it’s a ‘must win’ for our NY6 aspirations
09-05-2019 09:09 PM
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Jjoey52 Offline
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Post: #31
Race for the NY6 Week 2
(09-05-2019 09:09 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  
(09-05-2019 08:36 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  Rice is not going to beat Wake Forest, you heard it here first.


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Well, kwap.

They torched us last year, but that was on the road and they had the element of surprise as we hadn’t played in years. I thought just maybe at home, we show em a thing or two.

I will admit it’s a ‘must win’ for our NY6 aspirations


They played our local school Utah State last week and looked good.


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09-05-2019 11:06 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Race for the NY6 Week 2
(09-05-2019 11:06 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  
(09-05-2019 09:09 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  
(09-05-2019 08:36 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  Rice is not going to beat Wake Forest, you heard it here first.


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Well, kwap.

They torched us last year, but that was on the road and they had the element of surprise as we hadn’t played in years. I thought just maybe at home, we show em a thing or two.

I will admit it’s a ‘must win’ for our NY6 aspirations


They played our local school Utah State last week and looked good.


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14-0 quick start for Wake..
Rice ties it 14-14 after 1Q.
Now 24-14 Wake at 1H.
09-06-2019 08:59 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #33
Race for the NY6 Week 2
(09-05-2019 08:36 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  Rice is not going to beat Wake Forest, you heard it here first.


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Dude? How’d you know? Ah well it was fun for a couple or three quarters anyway.
09-06-2019 10:48 PM
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Jjoey52 Offline
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Post: #34
Race for the NY6 Week 2
Those tall receivers are what beat USU last week. They are going to cause a lot of teams trouble.

Rice had their moments, they will win some games this year.


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09-06-2019 11:23 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Race for the NY6 Week 2
(09-05-2019 07:16 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  You read it here first folx. When we blow out Wake Forest tomorrow you’ll remember this post!

07-coffee3
09-07-2019 03:43 AM
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toddjnsn Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Race for the NY6 Week 2
Well, Cinci's out. :)
09-07-2019 12:26 PM
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HiddenDragon Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Race for the NY6 Week 2
(09-07-2019 12:26 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Well, Cinci's out. :)

Not even a FG?
09-07-2019 03:01 PM
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Sideshow2313 Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Race for the NY6 Week 2
(09-07-2019 03:01 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  
(09-07-2019 12:26 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Well, Cinci's out. :)

Not even a FG?

not a pretty game, unless you are tOSU fan.
09-07-2019 05:33 PM
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toddjnsn Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Race for the NY6 Week 2
Quote:not a pretty game, unless you are tOSU fan.

I'm not even anOSU fan.
09-07-2019 06:02 PM
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AppfanInCAAland Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Race for the NY6 Week 2
After week 2, its a two way race - UCF and Boise State. None of the other currently undefeated G5 front-runners have it; every other 2-0 G5 struggled with a team with which they shouldn't have had a problem.
09-07-2019 10:36 PM
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