Creighton 5 MW vs New Mexico St, Arizona- Sacramento
Provicence 11 MW(ff) vs Ariz St, VCU, Baylor- Omaha
Marquette 7 MW vs Miss St, UNC- Greensboro
Xavier 8 S vs Penn St, Florida- Tampa
Seton Hall 6 S vs Washington, Purdue- St Louis
Georgetown 9 E NYC vs Auburn, Duke- Greensboro
Villanova 2 E vs Radford, Houston- Albany

good- 7 teams in
bad- some nasty brackets. I mean Marquette and Georgetown get in rd 2 UNC and Duke respectively in Greensboro. Xavier gets Florida in Tampa. Seton Hall gets Purdue. Even one of the better ones- Creighton- gets Arizona in Sacramento in rd 2- hardly a close one. And the 1 good BE team- Villanova- gets Houston all the way up in Albany(no real close locations for them at all).

(08-28-2019 09:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Creighton 5 MW vs New Mexico St, Arizona- Sacramento
Provicence 11 MW(ff) vs Ariz St, VCU, Baylor- Omaha
Marquette 7 MW vs Miss St, UNC- Greensboro
Xavier 8 S vs Penn St, Florida- Tampa
Seton Hall 6 S vs Washington, Purdue- St Louis
Georgetown 9 E NYC vs Auburn, Duke- Greensboro
Villanova 2 E vs Radford, Houston- Albany

good- 7 teams in
bad- some nasty brackets. I mean Marquette and Georgetown get in rd 2 UNC and Duke respectively in Greensboro. Xavier gets Florida in Tampa. Seton Hall gets Purdue. Even one of the better ones- Creighton- gets Arizona in Sacramento in rd 2- hardly a close one. And the 1 good BE team- Villanova- gets Houston all the way up in Albany(no real close locations for them at all).

And for AAAACCCC, only three teams with one (UC) in the play-in game.

(08-28-2019 10:03 AM)X-man Wrote:  

(08-28-2019 09:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Creighton 5 MW vs New Mexico St, Arizona- Sacramento
Provicence 11 MW(ff) vs Ariz St, VCU, Baylor- Omaha
Marquette 7 MW vs Miss St, UNC- Greensboro
Xavier 8 S vs Penn St, Florida- Tampa
Seton Hall 6 S vs Washington, Purdue- St Louis
Georgetown 9 E NYC vs Auburn, Duke- Greensboro
Villanova 2 E vs Radford, Houston- Albany

good- 7 teams in
bad- some nasty brackets. I mean Marquette and Georgetown get in rd 2 UNC and Duke respectively in Greensboro. Xavier gets Florida in Tampa. Seton Hall gets Purdue. Even one of the better ones- Creighton- gets Arizona in Sacramento in rd 2- hardly a close one. And the 1 good BE team- Villanova- gets Houston all the way up in Albany(no real close locations for them at all).

And for AAAACCCC, only three teams with one (UC) in the play-in game.

And yet, when the season gets here- the AAC will probably get their 3 in much easier than the Big East getting 7 in. 10 team round robin vs 12 team non round robin is a huge difference. 3rd place AAC team has finished with at least 12 wins every single year. For Big East to get 7 teams in, everything and I do mean everything has to fall perfectly in place.

and once again, I absolutely love how Big East fans want to bring the AAC into everything..... Give me a break.... Sorry but it's extremely valid to bring up that while getting 7 teams in is great(even though highly unlikely when we get to the season)- having 3 of those bids in the 7-9 range and playing true road games in rd 2 is not good by any stretch, and then a 4th team getting first four so 3 tough games, and a 5th team getting Purdue in the 2nd round- It's definitely not condusive to high chances for tourney sucess.

Well, the key to maximizing bids and seeds in a given year is that there needs to be a true bottom - one team that performs very well OOC, but then loses to a majority of teams in conference. With the way DePaul has been recruiting, they will not be an easy out - which, IMO, is a good thing for the league. When both Villanova and Xavier got top seeds, the Big East had both St. John's and DePaul ideally placed at the bottom (only winning 4 conference games each). Even that year (17-18), Georgetown had only five wins, so the bottom was firmly established, which helped solidify and isolate the top (and because Villanova and Xavier were elite teams that year). St. John's is clearly in rebuilding mode, but Mike Anderson's teams always get better as their season goes on (and he's never had a losing season as a head coach). They won't be a pushover like they had been under Mullin numerous times).

The three teams not listed by Lunardi - Butler (72), St. John's (88) and DePaul (118) - are still expected to finish high(er) in KenPom, so those three teams are by no means guaranteed wins in-conference by any stretch.

Seven teams projected-in is a good thing, but I still think the regular number will be about six. Would not be surprised if Butler squeezed-in over Georgetown and Providence, with Providence getting bumped out and Georgetown getting relegated to a play-in game. When UConn gets added, I would imagine that the average number of teams into the tournament would be seven, with eight teams being the ceiling.

(08-28-2019 10:22 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Well, the key to maximizing bids and seeds in a given year is that there needs to be a true bottom - one team that performs very well OOC, but then loses to a majority of teams in conference. With the way DePaul has been recruiting, they will not be an easy out - which, IMO, is a good thing for the league. When both Villanova and Xavier got top seeds, the Big East had both St. John's and DePaul ideally placed at the bottom (only winning 4 conference games each). Even that year (17-18), Georgetown had only five wins, so the bottom was firmly established, which helped solidify and isolate the top (and because Villanova and Xavier were elite teams that year).

The three teams not listed by Lunardi - Butler (72), St. John's (88) and DePaul (118) - are still expected to finish high(er) in KenPom, so those three teams are by no means guaranteed wins in-conference by any stretch.

Seven teams projected-in is a good thing, but I still think the regular number will be about six. Would not be surprised if Butler squeezed-in over Georgetown and Providence, with Providence getting bumped out and Georgetown getting relegated to a play-in game. When UConn gets added, I would imagine that the average number of teams into the tournament would be seven, with eight teams being the ceiling.

and the year that the Big East got 2 1 seeds, they only got 6 teams in. It's a needle in a haystack to get both 7 teams in and really high seeds.

and I wouldn't be so sure about when Uconn gets added that the average will be 7. Looking at the Big Sky last year(playing 20 conference games- only one with 11 teams/20 games last year)- they had 6 winning teams, then a 7th at 9-11, and 2 more at 8-12. Those other 3 teams would need to have had close to a perfect OOC to have any real shot at the tourney. The MAAC in 2016-17 had 2 teams tie for 6th at 10-10. Once again- those teams would need to have had a pretty good OOC to have a good shot there....

Having 10-11 conference losses, plus then the OOC schedules which for most teams will have 2-3 tough exempt tourney games, 2 conference challenge games, and 1-2 other tough games- it gets real tough real fast to make the tourney. Is the committee going to start to send teams fewer than 4 games over .500 to the tourney? I sure don't see that.

(08-28-2019 10:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  and once again, I absolutely love how Big East fans want to bring the AAC into everything..... Give me a break.... Sorry but it's extremely valid to bring up that while getting 7 teams in is great(even though highly unlikely when we get to the season)- having 3 of those bids in the 7-9 range and playing true road games in rd 2 is not good by any stretch, and then a 4th team getting first four so 3 tough games, and a 5th team getting Purdue in the 2nd round- It's definitely not condusive to high chances for tourney sucess.

Bringing AAACCC into this is only because you are such an AACCC homer while pretending to be a Big East fan. Your perpetual "gloom and doom" posts about what is an impressive forecast for the Big East, while totally ignoring the lousy AAAACCC forecast in the same bracketology, is so consistent with the total hypocrisy and troll factor in your every post. If you would just admit that you love the AAACCC and hate the Big East, everyone would get off your case.

(08-28-2019 12:52 PM)X-man Wrote:  

(08-28-2019 10:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  and once again, I absolutely love how Big East fans want to bring the AAC into everything..... Give me a break.... Sorry but it's extremely valid to bring up that while getting 7 teams in is great(even though highly unlikely when we get to the season)- having 3 of those bids in the 7-9 range and playing true road games in rd 2 is not good by any stretch, and then a 4th team getting first four so 3 tough games, and a 5th team getting Purdue in the 2nd round- It's definitely not condusive to high chances for tourney sucess.

Bringing AAACCC into this is only because you are such an AACCC homer while pretending to be a Big East fan. Your perpetual "gloom and doom" posts about what is an impressive forecast for the Big East, while totally ignoring the lousy AAAACCC forecast in the same bracketology, is so consistent with the total hypocrisy and troll factor in your every post. If you would just admit that you love the AAACCC and hate the Big East, everyone would get off your case.

I'm sorry, but I don't find the forecast all that impressive for the Big East. You and other big east homers want to act like the only thing that matters is geting teams in the tourney- and not the seeds when you get in the tourney. I'm sorry, but it's not. Having only 1 team with a seed over 5 is not good. I'd rather have the Big 12's forecast over the Big East, even though Big 12 has 1 fewer team. Why? 3 top 4 seeds..... I'd take that over the SEC with 7 teams(but only 2 top 4 seeds, and the rest in the 7-10 pit of misery). I'd take the ACC with 6 all the time over what the Big East has- 4 top 4 seeds, and only 1 team in the 7-10 pit of misery.

(08-28-2019 01:54 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(08-28-2019 12:52 PM)X-man Wrote:  

(08-28-2019 10:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  and once again, I absolutely love how Big East fans want to bring the AAC into everything..... Give me a break.... Sorry but it's extremely valid to bring up that while getting 7 teams in is great(even though highly unlikely when we get to the season)- having 3 of those bids in the 7-9 range and playing true road games in rd 2 is not good by any stretch, and then a 4th team getting first four so 3 tough games, and a 5th team getting Purdue in the 2nd round- It's definitely not condusive to high chances for tourney sucess.

Bringing AAACCC into this is only because you are such an AACCC homer while pretending to be a Big East fan. Your perpetual "gloom and doom" posts about what is an impressive forecast for the Big East, while totally ignoring the lousy AAAACCC forecast in the same bracketology, is so consistent with the total hypocrisy and troll factor in your every post. If you would just admit that you love the AAACCC and hate the Big East, everyone would get off your case.

I'm sorry, but I don't find the forecast all that impressive for the Big East. You and other big east homers want to act like the only thing that matters is geting teams in the tourney- and not the seeds when you get in the tourney. I'm sorry, but it's not. Having only 1 team with a seed over 5 is not good. I'd rather have the Big 12's forecast over the Big East, even though Big 12 has 1 fewer team. Why? 3 top 4 seeds..... I'd take that over the SEC with 7 teams(but only 2 top 4 seeds, and the rest in the 7-10 pit of misery). I'd take the ACC with 6 all the time over what the Big East has- 4 top 4 seeds, and only 1 team in the 7-10 pit of misery.

I like 70% of the league getting in. Certainly higher seeds are better, but the Big East is not as good as the ACC, Big10, Big12, or SEC. So they will always get better seeds. However getting 70% of your teams in still is impressive. Of course you are always trying to put a downer on anything that looks good for the Big East. Instead, I suggest that you save your pity party for the pathetic showing of the AAAAACCC in Lunardi's latest forecast. That really is something to be negative about.

(08-28-2019 04:15 PM)X-man Wrote:  

(08-28-2019 01:54 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(08-28-2019 12:52 PM)X-man Wrote:  

(08-28-2019 10:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  and once again, I absolutely love how Big East fans want to bring the AAC into everything..... Give me a break.... Sorry but it's extremely valid to bring up that while getting 7 teams in is great(even though highly unlikely when we get to the season)- having 3 of those bids in the 7-9 range and playing true road games in rd 2 is not good by any stretch, and then a 4th team getting first four so 3 tough games, and a 5th team getting Purdue in the 2nd round- It's definitely not condusive to high chances for tourney sucess.

Bringing AAACCC into this is only because you are such an AACCC homer while pretending to be a Big East fan. Your perpetual "gloom and doom" posts about what is an impressive forecast for the Big East, while totally ignoring the lousy AAAACCC forecast in the same bracketology, is so consistent with the total hypocrisy and troll factor in your every post. If you would just admit that you love the AAACCC and hate the Big East, everyone would get off your case.

I'm sorry, but I don't find the forecast all that impressive for the Big East. You and other big east homers want to act like the only thing that matters is geting teams in the tourney- and not the seeds when you get in the tourney. I'm sorry, but it's not. Having only 1 team with a seed over 5 is not good. I'd rather have the Big 12's forecast over the Big East, even though Big 12 has 1 fewer team. Why? 3 top 4 seeds..... I'd take that over the SEC with 7 teams(but only 2 top 4 seeds, and the rest in the 7-10 pit of misery). I'd take the ACC with 6 all the time over what the Big East has- 4 top 4 seeds, and only 1 team in the 7-10 pit of misery.

I like 70% of the league getting in. Certainly higher seeds are better, but the Big East is not as good as the ACC, Big10, Big12, or SEC. So they will always get better seeds. However getting 70% of your teams in still is impressive. Of course you are always trying to put a downer on anything that looks good for the Big East. Instead, I suggest that you save your pity party for the pathetic showing of the AAAAACCC in Lunardi's latest forecast. That really is something to be negative about.

What? Big East is not as good as the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, or SEC? That's not what Big East fans always want to say....

Also I would say what Lunardi says for the AAC just isn't realistic. A 12 team conference, the 3rd place team is going to have at least 12-13 wins. Add to that 10-11 OOC wins, and they get in the tourney easily.....

(08-28-2019 09:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Creighton 5 MW vs New Mexico St, Arizona- Sacramento
Provicence 11 MW(ff) vs Ariz St, VCU, Baylor- Omaha
Marquette 7 MW vs Miss St, UNC- Greensboro
Xavier 8 S vs Penn St, Florida- Tampa
Seton Hall 6 S vs Washington, Purdue- St Louis
Georgetown 9 E NYC vs Auburn, Duke- Greensboro
Villanova 2 E vs Radford, Houston- Albany

good- 7 teams in
bad- some nasty brackets. I mean Marquette and Georgetown get in rd 2 UNC and Duke respectively in Greensboro. Xavier gets Florida in Tampa. Seton Hall gets Purdue. Even one of the better ones- Creighton- gets Arizona in Sacramento in rd 2- hardly a close one. And the 1 good BE team- Villanova- gets Houston all the way up in Albany(no real close locations for them at all).

Sure that wouldn’t be ideal. Luckily these predictions have absolutely no bearing on the reality of what will happen

(08-28-2019 05:05 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Also I would say what Lunardi says for the AAC just isn't realistic. A 12 team conference, the 3rd place team is going to have at least 12-13 wins. Add to that 10-11 OOC wins, and they get in the tourney easily.....

Lol take lunardis big east predictions as gospel but what he predicts for the aac isn’t realistic.

WhY dO BIg EaST faNs ThInK I’M an AAC HoMeR?!”

(08-28-2019 06:07 PM)scoscox Wrote:  

(08-28-2019 05:05 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Also I would say what Lunardi says for the AAC just isn't realistic. A 12 team conference, the 3rd place team is going to have at least 12-13 wins. Add to that 10-11 OOC wins, and they get in the tourney easily.....

Lol take lunardis big east predictions as gospel but what he predicts for the aac isn’t realistic.

WhY dO BIg EaST faNs ThInK I’M an AAC HoMeR?!”

Sorry but I know how the seasons play out. The Big East has a DOUBLE ROUND ROBIN. That means that the 6th and 7th place teams are going to have 9-10 conference losses. That puts a crimp in getting teams in the tourney.... And the AAC this year has 18 game 12 team schedule. The 3rd place team will have 12-13 wins guaranteed. Teams that win 12-13 games from a good conference like the AAC get in the tourney.... It's that simple.

Big East fans just don't want to acknowledge that factoid at all whatsoever. Yeah, realistically the Big East might have 7 top 50 teams, but when you get to the season- the 6th and 7th team are going to have 13-14 losses, and be very fringy at best getting in the tourney...…

I forgot you know how the seasons play out. My mistake I forgot about your omniscience

By the way there are no big east fans anywhere who would have any problem acknowledging that the 6th or 7th place teams will likely be on the bubble and not get in comfortably. You’re arguing with straw men you’ve invented in your head

(08-28-2019 07:13 PM)scoscox Wrote:  I forgot you know how the seasons play out. My mistake I forgot about your omniscience

By the way there are no big east fans anywhere who would have any problem acknowledging that the 6th or 7th place teams will likely be on the bubble and not get in comfortably. You’re arguing with straw men you’ve invented in your head

12 team/18 game conferences- 3rd place teams pretty much have to have at least 12 wins, and frankly at least 13 wins. You don't want to acknowledge that at all... And if they don't have 13 wins, the conference pretty much has to have at least 5 or 6 teams with at least 11 wins.

Stever20,

I would surely think most folks who follow the Big East and post on this board realize that, for NCAA tourney purposes, getting six teams all with No. 5 seeds and better (for example) is, overall, preferred to getting seven teams with only one sub-No. 5 seed.

When you keep things straightforward and don’t subtly/indirectly take shots at the Big East teams, your contributions to the board are quite strong. You know your stuff and I respect you for that. But to be fair, your Lunardi post that spurred some posters to respond has to be taken in context. That is a Lunardi prediction. Who knows how many Big East teams will make the tourney and what their seeds will be?

Most of the posters on this board are very respectful of the AAC, and I appreciate that. They know the shared history of many of the current Big East teams with teams that were in The Great Midwest and Conference USA and, now, the American. They get it.

Let’s try to continue to keep it civil.

(08-28-2019 07:49 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Stever20,

I would surely think most folks who follow the Big East and post on this board realize that, for NCAA tourney purposes, getting six teams all with No. 5 seeds and better (for example) is, overall, preferred to getting seven teams with only one sub-No. 5 seed.

When you keep things straightforward and don’t subtly/indirectly take shots at the Big East teams, your contributions to the board are quite strong. You know your stuff and I respect you for that. But to be fair, your Lunardi post that spurred some posters to respond has to be taken in context. That is a Lunardi prediction. Who knows how many Big East teams will make the tourney and what their seeds will be?

Most of the posters on this board are very respectful of the AAC, and I appreciate that. They know the shared history of many of the current Big East teams with teams that were in The Great Midwest and Conference USA and, now, the American. They get it.

Let’s try to continue to keep it civil.

the thing is, for the Big East to get 7 teams in, the seeds almost have to be what Lunardi has. I mean to get 7 in, they have to have 6th and 7th place teams with 9 losses each. With that, teams in the 3-5 spots have to have only 10 to maybe 11 wins each. With that many losses, they're going to be getting those seeds in the pit of misery that I talk about all the time.

(08-28-2019 07:31 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(08-28-2019 07:13 PM)scoscox Wrote:  I forgot you know how the seasons play out. My mistake I forgot about your omniscience

By the way there are no big east fans anywhere who would have any problem acknowledging that the 6th or 7th place teams will likely be on the bubble and not get in comfortably. You’re arguing with straw men you’ve invented in your head

12 team/18 game conferences- 3rd place teams pretty much have to have at least 12 wins, and frankly at least 13 wins. You don't want to acknowledge that at all... And if they don't have 13 wins, the conference pretty much has to have at least 5 or 6 teams with at least 11 wins.

Why do you think that? I could care less tbh. I don’t have any desire to debate the prospects of aac teams getting in the tournament one way or the other. Idgaf. You’re on the big east board big guy

LOL. Love our move to the real P6.