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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #21
Exclamation RE: Predictions thread
I think we have a chance to win more than just 1 game this year. Don't know where, don't know when.
08-24-2019 11:35 AM
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mebehutchi Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Predictions thread
(08-24-2019 09:22 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(08-23-2019 10:56 PM)Intellectual_Brutality Wrote:  
(08-23-2019 10:48 PM)owl40 Wrote:  Vegas is in business for a reason. 2.5 is a great over/under #. Hard to see 0 or 1 W's and hard to see 4 W's or higher. Pessimist can take 2 and Optimists can take 3.

More than W's, will be competitiveness of team and record against-the-spread in Sept and Oct. Ability to go 4-1/5-0 ATS in first 5 games will be key to bringing crowds/interest back to HRS. If Owls go less than 2-3 or worse ATS in those early games, nobody will care/show-up for the C-USA garbage games in late Oct and Nov.

The spread is an appealing metric by which to judge season success. But problem is it adjusts during the season, so if we come out stronger than expected, the spread will become lower and tougher to beat


Spreads are meant to get 50% of the wagering on each side, nothing more. Beating the spread just means we did better than most of the betting public expected

That may be but given what's at stake it also behooves Vegas to start with as accurate a figure as possible - at least for our games which are unlikely to draw any odd LA foot traffic action or what have you.

That said, 23.5 point dogs to Army makes me believe that Vegas thinks our defense will let them score fast and our offense won't go anywhere when we do get our hands on the ball. Army has a quality club with 32 seniors and a 1000/1000 QB - but that's still a bunch of points for the one club in this early stretch that shouldn't have a massive size/speed/strength recruiting advantage. My big problem with last year was that outside of special teams I didn't see a lot of real excellent coaching to make me think we'll have a great opponent specific game plan in this or any other game. 1 win season.
08-24-2019 11:35 AM
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Post: #23
RE: Predictions thread
I think we start 0-4. Just don't see anything winnable there. Every CUSA game is theoretically winnable. That's one good thing about being in a bad conference, everybody else is pretty bad too. Optimistically, I expect to split the CUSA games, so 4-4 there and 4-8 overall. We have to get better to do that, but we don't really have to get a lot better.
(This post was last modified: 08-24-2019 12:14 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
08-24-2019 11:41 AM
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Post: #24
RE: Predictions thread
I want to see more first quarter stress on opposing defenses, especially everyone in conference. Last year, Houston and Hawaii both had to make second half adjustments, but just about no one else needed to. We have an offensive HC. We need to be good enough at our core gameplan that opponents have to get their feet wet against us before they know exactly how they can beat us. Until I see that, I'll be on the pessimist side at 2 wins. I still expect improved results, if for no reason other than random chance, but I won't be optimistic without an on-field reason to be.
08-24-2019 11:53 AM
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wrysal Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Predictions thread
(08-23-2019 09:37 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(08-23-2019 09:19 PM)wrysal Wrote:  The coaching staff is optimistic about the second half of the season, and I'll concede to their (biased) knowledge. We'll go 1-5 the first half and 4-2 in the second half. And even though 5-7 is the most optimistic prediction yet, it still won't be much fun only going 5-7 against cusa opposition. Bring on 2020!

I can buy 4 of the last 6. Which one of the first six do you is mostly likely an Owl win? UAB? That would make it 5 of the last seven, and I would feel very good about 2020 in that case.

UAB? Sure, and we have a puncher's chance against the four other teams not named texas. It really all depends on quarterback play.
08-24-2019 01:04 PM
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Almadenmike Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Predictions thread
(08-24-2019 11:35 AM)mebehutchi Wrote:  
(08-24-2019 09:22 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(08-23-2019 10:56 PM)Intellectual_Brutality Wrote:  
(08-23-2019 10:48 PM)owl40 Wrote:  Vegas is in business for a reason. 2.5 is a great over/under #. Hard to see 0 or 1 W's and hard to see 4 W's or higher. Pessimist can take 2 and Optimists can take 3.

More than W's, will be competitiveness of team and record against-the-spread in Sept and Oct. Ability to go 4-1/5-0 ATS in first 5 games will be key to bringing crowds/interest back to HRS.

The spread is an appealing metric by which to judge season success. But problem is it adjusts during the season, so if we come out stronger than expected, the spread will become lower and tougher to beat

Spreads are meant to get 50% of the wagering on each side, nothing more. Beating the spread just means we did better than most of the betting public expected

That may be but given what's at stake it also behooves Vegas to start with as accurate a figure as possible - at least for our games which are unlikely to draw any odd LA foot traffic action or what have you.

I've long wondered about the makeup of college football bettors: What's the typical fraction of partisan fans vs. professional (or near-professional) analytics-driven bettors?

In the former category, I'd think that we might have far-far fewer fans who would bet big money on the Owls, regardless of our success, than our opponents (whose fans would tend to bet more heavily on their team). Such a betting $$ imbalance should tend to move the line in the Owls favor as gametime approaches (at least compared with any initial Vegas line that did not anticipate subsequent betting volumes).

Does anyone here have any data on Rice's historical success ATS, and in particular about the motion of the line during the week before our games?
08-24-2019 01:17 PM
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RiceOL83 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Predictions thread
(08-24-2019 01:04 PM)wrysal Wrote:  
(08-23-2019 09:37 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(08-23-2019 09:19 PM)wrysal Wrote:  The coaching staff is optimistic about the second half of the season, and I'll concede to their (biased) knowledge. We'll go 1-5 the first half and 4-2 in the second half. And even though 5-7 is the most optimistic prediction yet, it still won't be much fun only going 5-7 against cusa opposition. Bring on 2020!

I can buy 4 of the last 6. Which one of the first six do you is mostly likely an Owl win? UAB? That would make it 5 of the last seven, and I would feel very good about 2020 in that case.

UAB? Sure, and we have a puncher's chance against the four other teams not named texas. It really all depends on quarterback play.

Disagree. QB doesn’t mean a thing in Blooms planning. His offense goes as the O-line goes. We dominate up front we have success. Plain and simple. QB has absolutely nothing to do with his mantra of Intellectual Brutality. That is fostered by the O-line and how they play upfront.
08-24-2019 02:53 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Predictions thread
(08-24-2019 02:53 PM)RiceOL83 Wrote:  
(08-24-2019 01:04 PM)wrysal Wrote:  
(08-23-2019 09:37 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(08-23-2019 09:19 PM)wrysal Wrote:  The coaching staff is optimistic about the second half of the season, and I'll concede to their (biased) knowledge. We'll go 1-5 the first half and 4-2 in the second half. And even though 5-7 is the most optimistic prediction yet, it still won't be much fun only going 5-7 against cusa opposition. Bring on 2020!

I can buy 4 of the last 6. Which one of the first six do you is mostly likely an Owl win? UAB? That would make it 5 of the last seven, and I would feel very good about 2020 in that case.

UAB? Sure, and we have a puncher's chance against the four other teams not named texas. It really all depends on quarterback play.

Disagree. QB doesn’t mean a thing in Blooms planning. His offense goes as the O-line goes. We dominate up front we have success. Plain and simple. QB has absolutely nothing to do with his mantra of Intellectual Brutality. That is fostered by the O-line and how they play upfront.

+1. The QB is still important, as it was in the Stanford offense, but the offense goes as the OL goes. It's as simple as that.
08-24-2019 03:46 PM
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Post: #29
RE: Predictions thread
So, if things do not go well the first couple or three games, we will be calling for the second team OL to be promoted to starters instead of the second team QB?
(This post was last modified: 08-24-2019 03:58 PM by OptimisticOwl.)
08-24-2019 03:58 PM
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westsidewolf1989 Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Predictions thread
I’ll go with 2-10. I break our schedule down into a few groups, based on my very rounded guesstimates of our win probability in each:



Games we have a small chance of winning (<20% winning probability). All non-conference games plus games against upper tier C-USA (consensus to be top two in their respective divisions from the previews I’ve seen)

@ Army

Wake Forest

Texas

Baylor

Southern Miss

Marshall

UNT



Games we have a “not insignificant” chance of winning (20 – 40%). Mid-tier C-USA

La Tech

@ UAB

@ MTSU



Games we should be especially disappointed if we lose, but still probably won’t be favored in (>40%). Bottom tier C-USA

@ UTSA

@ UTEP



I think we take one of the UTEP/UTSA games and maybe LaTech at home, but could also see us just beating the UTs (sans Austin) and losing to LaTech. Ceiling to me seems to be 3, maaaaybe 4 wins, with a floor of zero wins. I would be more surprised if we won four games than if we won zero games.
08-24-2019 04:42 PM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Predictions thread
(08-24-2019 04:42 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  I’ll go with 2-10. I break our schedule down into a few groups, based on my very rounded guesstimates of our win probability in each:



Games we have a small chance of winning (<20% winning probability). All non-conference games plus games against upper tier C-USA (consensus to be top two in their respective divisions from the previews I’ve seen)

@ Army

Wake Forest

Texas

Baylor

Southern Miss

Marshall

UNT



Games we have a “not insignificant” chance of winning (20 – 40%). Mid-tier C-USA

La Tech

@ UAB

@ MTSU



Games we should be especially disappointed if we lose, but still probably won’t be favored in (>40%). Bottom tier C-USA

@ UTSA

@ UTEP



I think we take one of the UTEP/UTSA games and maybe LaTech at home, but could also see us just beating the UTs (sans Austin) and losing to LaTech. Ceiling to me seems to be 3, maaaaybe 4 wins, with a floor of zero wins. I would be more surprised if we won four games than if we won zero games.

I am impressed with the clarity of this post.
08-24-2019 04:46 PM
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Post: #32
RE: Predictions thread
(08-24-2019 04:42 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  I’ll go with 2-10. I break our schedule down into a few groups, based on my very rounded guesstimates of our win probability in each:



Games we have a small chance of winning (<20% winning probability). All non-conference games plus games against upper tier C-USA (consensus to be top two in their respective divisions from the previews I’ve seen)

@ Army

Wake Forest

Texas

Baylor

Southern Miss

Marshall

UNT



Games we have a “not insignificant” chance of winning (20 – 40%). Mid-tier C-USA

La Tech

@ UAB

@ MTSU



Games we should be especially disappointed if we lose, but still probably won’t be favored in (>40%). Bottom tier C-USA

@ UTSA

@ UTEP



I think we take one of the UTEP/UTSA games and maybe LaTech at home, but could also see us just beating the UTs (sans Austin) and losing to LaTech. Ceiling to me seems to be 3, maaaaybe 4 wins, with a floor of zero wins. I would be more surprised if we won four games than if we won zero games.

Totally agree with this. I might go for 3 just being an optimist. There does not appear to be much evidence of significant improvement over last year.

I could see 5 in a hyperbolic scenario just because the CUSA is so terrible and we could sneak in a couple of Ws late season against other flailing CUSA teams if Bloomgren keeps these kids in the game. I will buy the 2.5 Vegas line on wins.
08-24-2019 06:33 PM
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illiniowl Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Predictions thread
(08-24-2019 01:17 PM)Almadenmike Wrote:  
(08-24-2019 11:35 AM)mebehutchi Wrote:  
(08-24-2019 09:22 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(08-23-2019 10:56 PM)Intellectual_Brutality Wrote:  
(08-23-2019 10:48 PM)owl40 Wrote:  Vegas is in business for a reason. 2.5 is a great over/under #. Hard to see 0 or 1 W's and hard to see 4 W's or higher. Pessimist can take 2 and Optimists can take 3.

More than W's, will be competitiveness of team and record against-the-spread in Sept and Oct. Ability to go 4-1/5-0 ATS in first 5 games will be key to bringing crowds/interest back to HRS.

The spread is an appealing metric by which to judge season success. But problem is it adjusts during the season, so if we come out stronger than expected, the spread will become lower and tougher to beat

Spreads are meant to get 50% of the wagering on each side, nothing more. Beating the spread just means we did better than most of the betting public expected

That may be but given what's at stake it also behooves Vegas to start with as accurate a figure as possible - at least for our games which are unlikely to draw any odd LA foot traffic action or what have you.

I've long wondered about the makeup of college football bettors: What's the typical fraction of partisan fans vs. professional (or near-professional) analytics-driven bettors?

In the former category, I'd think that we might have far-far fewer fans who would bet big money on the Owls, regardless of our success, than our opponents (whose fans would tend to bet more heavily on their team). Such a betting $$ imbalance should tend to move the line in the Owls favor as gametime approaches (at least compared with any initial Vegas line that did not anticipate subsequent betting volumes).

Does anyone here have any data on Rice's historical success ATS, and in particular about the motion of the line during the week before our games?

It is taking all my willpower not to nerd out in response to your post, and like most Rice people, I'll (happily) give in. 04-cheers College football betting has long been a hobby of mine and I am literally in my 24th year of running a couple of pick-em contests that Rice friends and I developed that have had up to 300 people in them (if anybody wants more info, PM me - it's not too late to join!).

Anyway, my sense is that especially over the last decade-plus, while there are still tons and tons of "square" bettors, betting syndicates based on analytics have become quite prominent, and there is, quite simply, no contest too obscure to escape major action if the line on that game were to be deemed exploitable. So even though (as you've intuited) the public does generally tend to bet favorites and better-known teams and increasingly we are neither 03-weeping, it is not necessarily the case that the line typically moves against us over the course of the week.

There are sites where you can see the percentage of bets on each side, the percentage of money on each side, and a graph of the line movement. For instance, for Rice @ Army, I am seeing 56% of the action so far is on Army, but the line has actually come down from -24.5 to -23.5. The line for our game at LSU last year opened at -44 and came down to -41.5 at game time (we covered easily anyway!).

Also, just generally (took a hit at the end of the Bailiff era), Rice has a good ATS record over the years when getting points, even more so when you drill down into certain situations, and you might be surprised at how widely that sort of stuff is known by and influences even casual bettors. The public does like favorites but there are plenty that think of Rice as a "live dog" too.

Anyway, I know I haven't produced comprehensive longitudinal data that would disprove your hunch but that sort of data on line movements is out there and I would be surprised if it showed any significant pattern for our games. I would guess that it moves for and against us fairly evenly. If anything, the lesser prominence of our games would mean that with fewer square bettors, lines on our games would likely be even more sensitive to "smart" money, which does not have a bias for or against favorites or the name on the front of the jersey, and simply responds to whether there is perceived value, which the oddsmakers strive mightily to minimize. And when the oddsmakers are wrong about us (or perceived to be wrong), I don't see any reason why they would miss in one direction more than the other.
****************
To return the thread to its topic: I "predict" 4 wins, because CUSA rosters are fungible and you would "predict" a coin flipped 8 times to come up heads 4 times. I expect 2 wins -- an improvement of one 1 FBS win over last year. By "expect" I mean the minimum it will take for me not to call for putting a for sale sign in Bloom's yard.
08-24-2019 07:31 PM
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Almadenmike Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Predictions thread
(08-24-2019 07:31 PM)illiniowl Wrote:  
(08-24-2019 01:17 PM)Almadenmike Wrote:  
(08-24-2019 11:35 AM)mebehutchi Wrote:  
(08-24-2019 09:22 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(08-23-2019 10:56 PM)Intellectual_Brutality Wrote:  The spread is an appealing metric by which to judge season success. But problem is it adjusts during the season, so if we come out stronger than expected, the spread will become lower and tougher to beat

Spreads are meant to get 50% of the wagering on each side, nothing more. Beating the spread just means we did better than most of the betting public expected

That may be but given what's at stake it also behooves Vegas to start with as accurate a figure as possible - at least for our games which are unlikely to draw any odd LA foot traffic action or what have you.

I've long wondered about the makeup of college football bettors: What's the typical fraction of partisan fans vs. professional (or near-professional) analytics-driven bettors?

In the former category, I'd think that we might have far-far fewer fans who would bet big money on the Owls, regardless of our success, than our opponents (whose fans would tend to bet more heavily on their team). Such a betting $$ imbalance should tend to move the line in the Owls favor as gametime approaches (at least compared with any initial Vegas line that did not anticipate subsequent betting volumes).

Does anyone here have any data on Rice's historical success ATS, and in particular about the motion of the line during the week before our games?

It is taking all my willpower not to nerd out in response to your post, and like most Rice people, I'll (happily) give in. 04-cheers College football betting has long been a hobby of mine and I am literally in my 24th year of running a couple of pick-em contests that Rice friends and I developed that have had up to 300 people in them (if anybody wants more info, PM me - it's not too late to join!).

Anyway, my sense is that especially over the last decade-plus, while there are still tons and tons of "square" bettors, betting syndicates based on analytics have become quite prominent, and there is, quite simply, no contest too obscure to escape major action if the line on that game were to be deemed exploitable. So even though (as you've intuited) the public does generally tend to bet favorites and better-known teams and increasingly we are neither 03-weeping, it is not necessarily the case that the line typically moves against us over the course of the week.

There are sites where you can see the percentage of bets on each side, the percentage of money on each side, and a graph of the line movement. For instance, for Rice @ Army, I am seeing 56% of the action so far is on Army, but the line has actually come down from -24.5 to -23.5. The line for our game at LSU last year opened at -44 and came down to -41.5 at game time (we covered easily anyway!).

Also, just generally (took a hit at the end of the Bailiff era), Rice has a good ATS record over the years when getting points, even more so when you drill down into certain situations, and you might be surprised at how widely that sort of stuff is known by and influences even casual bettors. The public does like favorites but there are plenty that think of Rice as a "live dog" too.

Anyway, I know I haven't produced comprehensive longitudinal data that would disprove your hunch but that sort of data on line movements is out there and I would be surprised if it showed any significant pattern for our games. I would guess that it moves for and against us fairly evenly. If anything, the lesser prominence of our games would mean that with fewer square bettors, lines on our games would likely be even more sensitive to "smart" money, which does not have a bias for or against favorites or the name on the front of the jersey, and simply responds to whether there is perceived value, which the oddsmakers strive mightily to minimize. And when the oddsmakers are wrong about us (or perceived to be wrong), I don't see any reason why they would miss in one direction more than the other.
****************
To return the thread to its topic: I "predict" 4 wins, because CUSA rosters are fungible and you would "predict" a coin flipped 8 times to come up heads 4 times. I expect 2 wins -- an improvement of one 1 FBS win over last year. By "expect" I mean the minimum it will take for me not to call for putting a for sale sign in Bloom's yard.

Thanks! That's the sort of insight I was interested in learning about.

I'm a bit surprised that an asymmetry in "square" betting (more bettors and $$ favoring our opponents than us) wouldn't favor Rice bettors, but it seems that thorough analytical syndicates can surely detect this and even the betting books.
(This post was last modified: 08-24-2019 11:31 PM by Almadenmike.)
08-24-2019 10:04 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #35
Predictions thread
You can call me irrational, but I predict e wins.

2 in CUSA, the rest OOC.
08-24-2019 10:44 PM
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Post: #36
RE: Predictions thread
I predict five wins.

We open the season with a surprising upset win at Army, then can't sneak up on any of the remaining OOC opponents.

We beat La Tech to reach a 2-3 record. After getting tantalizingly close to .500 we lose the next four games to fall to 2-7.

Bloomgren keeps the team motivated and focused, plus he aggressively plays freshmen to supplement the "upperclassmen" (aka redshirt freshmen and older) to finish the season on a 3 game winning streak leading to a final record of 5-7 with renewed optimism for the future of Rice Football.
08-25-2019 01:17 PM
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DFW Owl Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Predictions thread
The DMN has a weekly staff poll ranking the 12 FBS schools in Texas. The 10 voters each give 1 through 12 points to each school. In the first poll released today Texas got 120 points and Rice got 12. Hopefully the Owls will rise above that sometime during the season.

( I think we will get 2 wins.)
(This post was last modified: 08-26-2019 07:47 PM by DFW Owl.)
08-26-2019 07:45 PM
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owl at the moon Offline
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Post: #38
Predictions thread
(08-26-2019 07:45 PM)DFW Owl Wrote:  The DMN has a weekly staff poll ranking the 12 FBS schools in Texas. The 10 voters each give 1 through 12 points to each school. In the first poll released today Texas got 120 points and Rice got 12. Hopefully the Owls will rise above that sometime during the season.

( I think we will get 2 wins.)


So the one guy who put us at #9 almost made up for the other one who didn’t think we were still FBS and instead gave his 12th place vote to Abilene Christian?
08-26-2019 07:51 PM
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wiessguy Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Predictions thread
2-3 wins tops unfortunately
08-26-2019 11:02 PM
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Ourland Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Predictions thread
Army 38, Rice 14
08-27-2019 02:44 AM
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