There has been a fear that the Big East will only get three bids again this year, but after looking at the data, four is far more likely.

Should be in: Marquette, UConn, St. John's

Marquette and UConn: something catastrophic would have to happen for either to miss
St. John's: are an 8 seed at Bracket Matrix and sit at 15-3. Decent chance they will win their next four. Unlikely they will miss.

On the cusp: Creighton, Villanova

Creighton: Bracket Matrix has them as last four in. I did the Torvik Teamcast and they would get in at 19-13 with a loss in the BE quarterfinals. That was a worst case scenario. They will probably have 20-21 wins by Selection Sunday.

Villanova: Bracket Matrix has them in 1 bracket. Using Torvik Teamcast, I have a pretty good idea of how most of their games will go but three stand out: St. John's (H), Providence (A), and Georgetown (A). If they can go 2-1 or better in those three while winning the games they are supposed to and losing the others, they should sneak in.

In trouble: Georgetown, Xavier

Georgetown: I know nelson keeps postulation that 20 wins gets Georgetown in, but it doesn't. They didn't play a difficult enough schedule. 22 is probably the number.

Xavier: the next few weeks will likely torpedo their season

Done: Providence, Seton Hall, Butler, DePaul

(01-16-2025 11:36 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  There has been a fear that the Big East will only get three bids again this year, but after looking at the data, four is far more likely.

Should be in: Marquette, UConn, St. John's

Marquette and UConn: something catastrophic would have to happen for either to miss
St. John's: are an 8 seed at Bracket Matrix and sit at 15-3. Decent chance they will win their next four. Unlikely they will miss.

On the cusp: Creighton, Villanova

Creighton: Bracket Matrix has them as last four in. I did the Torvik Teamcast and they would get in at 19-13 with a loss in the BE quarterfinals. That was a worst case scenario. They will probably have 20-21 wins by Selection Sunday.

Villanova: Bracket Matrix has them in 1 bracket. Using Torvik Teamcast, I have a pretty good idea of how most of their games will go but three stand out: St. John's (H), Providence (A), and Georgetown (A). If they can go 2-1 or better in those three while winning the games they are supposed to and losing the others, they should sneak in.

In trouble: Georgetown, Xavier

Georgetown: I know nelson keeps postulation that 20 wins gets Georgetown in, but it doesn't. They didn't play a difficult enough schedule. 22 is probably the number.

Xavier: the next few weeks will likely torpedo their season

Done: Providence, Seton Hall, Butler, DePaul

Can you elaborate a bit more on which games you think they should lose and which games you think they should win (outside of the 3 key games you mentioned)? As I've alluded to in other posts, I have no idea if Nova will win or lose each game they play. I have literally no confidence picking either way with them.

Just trying to see if I agree with your overall sentiment. I think they can make it but I'm not confident they will. I just went through their schedule briefly and my gut tells me they'll go 18-13, which won't get them in

I'm 99.9 percent confident the Big East will get at least three at-large bids (for four BE teams in the Big Dance total). The key question regards the chance of a fourth BE at-large bid. Five league members total in the tourney is the hope and would be strong.

I agree with NLess that it is difficult to have full confidence in Villanova. A very unpredictable team.

Looking at Ken Pom- they have projected for Nova-
W:8
Providence
Georgetown
Creighton
DePaul
Xavier
@ Providence
@ Seton Hall
Butler

L:5
@ Marquette
St John's
@ UConn
Marquette
@ Georgetown

if they did that they're 19-12. Might need 1 BET to clinch things depending on how the bubble goes.

I have a feeling with Villanova that one game either way will make the difference in whether they get in the tournament or not. We'll look at one game that had they won would have got them in, or one game that had they lost, would have kept them out. I wonder if the Xavier game will come back to haunt them. They led the whole game before imploding in the final 1:40. Winning at Xavier would be a good win, and I wonder if they fall just short at the end of the season, that that one game will be one that could have made the difference.

On a separate note if they sneak in as a 10 or 11 seed, and then lose their first game, will Neptune be back?

I would guess that if they make the tourney and lose first game he would be back.

(01-16-2025 11:08 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I would guess that if they make the tourney and lose first game he would be back.

I agree, but I wouldn't be surprised if most people disagree with us.

(01-16-2025 11:10 PM)Traderwill Wrote:  

(01-16-2025 11:08 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I would guess that if they make the tourney and lose first game he would be back.

I agree, but I wouldn't be surprised if most people disagree with us.

Oh I definitely think most people would want him gone. I just don't think the people that actually matter would think like that.

(01-16-2025 10:56 PM)Traderwill Wrote:  I have a feeling with Villanova that one game either way will make the difference in whether they get in the tournament or not. We'll look at one game that had they won would have got them in, or one game that had they lost, would have kept them out. I wonder if the Xavier game will come back to haunt them. They led the whole game before imploding in the final 1:40. Winning at Xavier would be a good win, and I wonder if they fall just short at the end of the season, that that one game will be one that could have made the difference.

On a separate note if they sneak in as a 10 or 11 seed, and then lose their first game, will Neptune be back?

Probably. I think that would be the wrong move though. Dixon seems to be carrying this team, and honestly I think without him these Neptune Nova teams would've been even worse than they have the past couple years. I just think with a guy like Dixon (probably the best player in the league) and a supporting cast like Popular, Brickus and Longino, this should easily be a tournament quality team, if not borderline Top 25. Even making the tourney as an 11 seed would be a subpar performance, IMO.

The good thing about an 11 seed though, is it's becoming one of the main upsets in the bracket. You also don't have to play a 1 seed until the Elite 8, at the earliest. So a run to the Sweet 16 is possible with a talented roster.

Let's hope they get there and get the chance!

Today’s road win over UConn makes Creighton a pretty solid tournament team. In addition, they have wins over Kansas and St. John’s.