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Endgame for Hong Kong?
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #1
Endgame for Hong Kong?
Hong Kong has had massive protests for the last 10 weekends. At its peak, 1 out of every 7 residents were in the streets. Now it's spreading to weekdays.

Today, protesters took over Hong Kong International Airport. All flights were canceled. It's one of the busiest airports in the world.

Does China crack down? These protests are similar in size to Tiananmen Square in 1989. But it's not 1989 any more. They won't be able to suppress domestic coverage of a brutal crackdown like they did in 1989. And China is no longer a hermit state. In 2019, China's lifeblood is exports to Democracies, so images similar to Tank Man will have trade repercussions that will cause a massive recession. The Communist Party derives its legitimacy from its phenomenal economic progress over the last 3 decades, and a depression will cause many Chinese to question that legitimacy.

China could give in. The protester's demands seem simple to agree to. Resignation of Hong Kong's leader, amnesty for protesters, and a permanent withdrawal of the extradition bill. But if China gives in here, the whole mainland will see Beijing's weakness.

A third option is to just continue to ignore the protester's demands and hope that protesters eventually give up. But will the protesters tire out this time? Many of them seem convinced that this is their last chance to save the Rule of Law.

How does this situation end?
(This post was last modified: 08-12-2019 09:20 AM by Captain Bearcat.)
08-12-2019 09:18 AM
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SoMs Eagle Offline
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RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
I’m betting it ends the way it always does in socialist-communist dictatorships. The government will listen to the people and implement reforms to give more freedom and choice to its citizens....yeah, right....that’s what I’m thinking...
08-12-2019 09:26 AM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
If they had a 2nd Amendment I know how it would end. It could go either way.

Under the principle of ‘one country, two systems’, Hong Kong has its own legal system, distinct from the Law of the People's Republic of China, and based on the combination of English common law (developed in local cases) and local legislation codified in the Laws of Hong Kong. Hong Kong has a common law system, whereas the PRC has a civil law system with socialist roots. Only a small number of PRC laws apply in Hong Kong by virtue of stipulations in Article 18 and Annex III of the Basic Law.[1] The separation of the Hong Kong legal system from the PRC is guaranteed constitutionally until at least 2047.

The Hong Kong judiciary has had a longstanding reputation for fairness and was rated as the best judicial system in Asia by one survey in 2008.[2]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_Hong_Kong
08-12-2019 09:32 AM
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SoMs Eagle Offline
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RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-12-2019 09:32 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  If they had a 2nd Amendment I know how it would end. It could go either way.

Under the principle of ‘one country, two systems’, Hong Kong has its own legal system, distinct from the Law of the People's Republic of China, and based on the combination of English common law (developed in local cases) and local legislation codified in the Laws of Hong Kong. Hong Kong has a common law system, whereas the PRC has a civil law system with socialist roots. Only a small number of PRC laws apply in Hong Kong by virtue of stipulations in Article 18 and Annex III of the Basic Law.[1] The separation of the Hong Kong legal system from the PRC is guaranteed constitutionally until at least 2047.

The Hong Kong judiciary has had a longstanding reputation for fairness and was rated as the best judicial system in Asia by one survey in 2008.[2]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_Hong_Kong

Well it was created by the British....
08-12-2019 09:41 AM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-12-2019 09:41 AM)SoMs Eagle Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 09:32 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  If they had a 2nd Amendment I know how it would end. It could go either way.

Under the principle of ‘one country, two systems’, Hong Kong has its own legal system, distinct from the Law of the People's Republic of China, and based on the combination of English common law (developed in local cases) and local legislation codified in the Laws of Hong Kong. Hong Kong has a common law system, whereas the PRC has a civil law system with socialist roots. Only a small number of PRC laws apply in Hong Kong by virtue of stipulations in Article 18 and Annex III of the Basic Law.[1] The separation of the Hong Kong legal system from the PRC is guaranteed constitutionally until at least 2047.

The Hong Kong judiciary has had a longstanding reputation for fairness and was rated as the best judicial system in Asia by one survey in 2008.[2]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_Hong_Kong

Well it was created by the British....

Evil Brits, pretty much everywhere they went they left the place better than before they arrived.
08-12-2019 09:45 AM
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king king Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
I'd argue they derive their legitimacy by the fact that they will disappear that ass if you don't comply.

I see this coming down to $$. Hong Kong is a huge generator of that for the Chinese and so they will seek to keep the peace there while simultaneously showing strength. How they do that remains to be seen but the feather in HK's cap is their economic generation.
08-12-2019 09:48 AM
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Jugnaut Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
China will crush the protests and assimilate hong kong. How much force they use is up to debate, but there is no way China lets Hong Kong have more independence.
08-12-2019 10:07 AM
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RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-12-2019 09:18 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Hong Kong has had massive protests for the last 10 weekends. At its peak, 1 out of every 7 residents were in the streets. Now it's spreading to weekdays.

Today, protesters took over Hong Kong International Airport. All flights were canceled. It's one of the busiest airports in the world.

Does China crack down? These protests are similar in size to Tiananmen Square in 1989. But it's not 1989 any more. They won't be able to suppress domestic coverage of a brutal crackdown like they did in 1989. And China is no longer a hermit state. In 2019, China's lifeblood is exports to Democracies, so images similar to Tank Man will have trade repercussions that will cause a massive recession. The Communist Party derives its legitimacy from its phenomenal economic progress over the last 3 decades, and a depression will cause many Chinese to question that legitimacy.

China could give in. The protester's demands seem simple to agree to. Resignation of Hong Kong's leader, amnesty for protesters, and a permanent withdrawal of the extradition bill. But if China gives in here, the whole mainland will see Beijing's weakness.

A third option is to just continue to ignore the protester's demands and hope that protesters eventually give up. But will the protesters tire out this time? Many of them seem convinced that this is their last chance to save the Rule of Law.

How does this situation end?

Machine guns, tanks and mass murder.
08-12-2019 10:17 AM
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CG_Hawk06 Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
Oh T-Square, Oh T-Square...
08-12-2019 11:28 AM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-12-2019 10:17 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 09:18 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Hong Kong has had massive protests for the last 10 weekends. At its peak, 1 out of every 7 residents were in the streets. Now it's spreading to weekdays.

Today, protesters took over Hong Kong International Airport. All flights were canceled. It's one of the busiest airports in the world.

Does China crack down? These protests are similar in size to Tiananmen Square in 1989. But it's not 1989 any more. They won't be able to suppress domestic coverage of a brutal crackdown like they did in 1989. And China is no longer a hermit state. In 2019, China's lifeblood is exports to Democracies, so images similar to Tank Man will have trade repercussions that will cause a massive recession. The Communist Party derives its legitimacy from its phenomenal economic progress over the last 3 decades, and a depression will cause many Chinese to question that legitimacy.

China could give in. The protester's demands seem simple to agree to. Resignation of Hong Kong's leader, amnesty for protesters, and a permanent withdrawal of the extradition bill. But if China gives in here, the whole mainland will see Beijing's weakness.

A third option is to just continue to ignore the protester's demands and hope that protesters eventually give up. But will the protesters tire out this time? Many of them seem convinced that this is their last chance to save the Rule of Law.

How does this situation end?

Machine guns, tanks and mass murder.

Chinese government is in a precarious position relative to going to full blown thug on Hong Kong citizens. Today with video and social media everywhere ...if the government goes loony it could have other countries review their trade policies with China. All of the websites and social media stuff is not banned in Honk Kong as it on the mainland.
08-12-2019 11:42 AM
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200yrs2late Offline
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RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
China is in a pickle. The real question is how does the world react to China's action. China can't back down. What they eventually do will define their geopolitical standing for a generation or longer
08-12-2019 11:50 AM
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-12-2019 09:32 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  If they had a 2nd Amendment I know how it would end. It could go either way.

Under the principle of ‘one country, two systems’, Hong Kong has its own legal system, distinct from the Law of the People's Republic of China, and based on the combination of English common law (developed in local cases) and local legislation codified in the Laws of Hong Kong. Hong Kong has a common law system, whereas the PRC has a civil law system with socialist roots. Only a small number of PRC laws apply in Hong Kong by virtue of stipulations in Article 18 and Annex III of the Basic Law.[1] The separation of the Hong Kong legal system from the PRC is guaranteed constitutionally until at least 2047.

The Hong Kong judiciary has had a longstanding reputation for fairness and was rated as the best judicial system in Asia by one survey in 2008.[2]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_Hong_Kong

So...they just wait until 2047 and then crack down hard, right? And we keep buying their crap and shipping it here to fill our storage units, right? And trump is bad for standing up to the Chinese, right? Yeah...right.
08-12-2019 12:00 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
I know Peter Zeihan has been quoted several times on here. He has some interesting comments about China. Basically he sees their economic boom as a debt-induced bubble. Admittedly it's a more populous country, but they've been doing the equivalent of Obama's stimulus about every six weeks.

Their Achilles heel is their absolute dependence on Mideast oil. Even with doubling their pipeline capacity coming from Siberia, they still will depend on the Mideast for about 50% of their imports. And until somebody figures out how to build a pipeline across the Himalayas, that oil has to come by sea, through the Straits of Hormuz, all the way around India, and through the Straits of Malacca or some other osage through Indonesia. That's two of the world's most congested choke points, and in between a long transit around a generally unfriendly country.

There is a theory being advanced in strategic circles that China's true ambitions lie to the west. In this theory, their adventures in the China Sea are aimed at securing their back door, before they make their real move to the west. The objective would be oil supply, but they would still have to get it home. Could be the return of the Mongol Hordes.

They have already established significant economic leverage in that area, including Africa. While we have been totally preoccupied fighting winless wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria, they have been using economic power to extend their influence around us, including starting now in South America. I think we may be taking the wrong approach.
(This post was last modified: 08-12-2019 12:15 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
08-12-2019 12:11 PM
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RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-12-2019 11:42 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 10:17 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 09:18 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Hong Kong has had massive protests for the last 10 weekends. At its peak, 1 out of every 7 residents were in the streets. Now it's spreading to weekdays.

Today, protesters took over Hong Kong International Airport. All flights were canceled. It's one of the busiest airports in the world.

Does China crack down? These protests are similar in size to Tiananmen Square in 1989. But it's not 1989 any more. They won't be able to suppress domestic coverage of a brutal crackdown like they did in 1989. And China is no longer a hermit state. In 2019, China's lifeblood is exports to Democracies, so images similar to Tank Man will have trade repercussions that will cause a massive recession. The Communist Party derives its legitimacy from its phenomenal economic progress over the last 3 decades, and a depression will cause many Chinese to question that legitimacy.

China could give in. The protester's demands seem simple to agree to. Resignation of Hong Kong's leader, amnesty for protesters, and a permanent withdrawal of the extradition bill. But if China gives in here, the whole mainland will see Beijing's weakness.

A third option is to just continue to ignore the protester's demands and hope that protesters eventually give up. But will the protesters tire out this time? Many of them seem convinced that this is their last chance to save the Rule of Law.

How does this situation end?

Machine guns, tanks and mass murder.

Chinese government is in a precarious position relative to going to full blown thug on Hong Kong citizens. Today with video and social media everywhere ...if the government goes loony it could have other countries review their trade policies with China. All of the websites and social media stuff is not banned in Honk Kong as it on the mainland.

I think they will assume that $$s rule elsewhere.

Their leaders value power over everything.
08-12-2019 12:12 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-12-2019 11:50 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  China is in a pickle. The real question is how does the world react to China's action. China can't back down. What they eventually do will define their geopolitical standing for a generation or longer

It should but it won't. The U.S. will do nothing. Everyone else will follow the lead. Eventually it will be Taiwan.

I have family in Hong Kong right now. They are corporate attorneys working for a firm there. I just pray they have a window to leave once their corporations get around to taking what is imminent seriously.
08-12-2019 12:18 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
My son lives and works in Tokyo. I don't see a threat to him from this, but I hope he is watching carefully.
08-12-2019 12:20 PM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-12-2019 12:00 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 09:32 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  If they had a 2nd Amendment I know how it would end. It could go either way.

Under the principle of ‘one country, two systems’, Hong Kong has its own legal system, distinct from the Law of the People's Republic of China, and based on the combination of English common law (developed in local cases) and local legislation codified in the Laws of Hong Kong. Hong Kong has a common law system, whereas the PRC has a civil law system with socialist roots. Only a small number of PRC laws apply in Hong Kong by virtue of stipulations in Article 18 and Annex III of the Basic Law.[1] The separation of the Hong Kong legal system from the PRC is guaranteed constitutionally until at least 2047.

The Hong Kong judiciary has had a longstanding reputation for fairness and was rated as the best judicial system in Asia by one survey in 2008.[2]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_Hong_Kong

So...they just wait until 2047 and then crack down hard, right? And we keep buying their crap and shipping it here to fill our storage units, right? And trump is bad for standing up to the Chinese, right? Yeah...right.

No kidding. I hope American companies move their operations out of there.
08-12-2019 12:47 PM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
Looks like China is sending in the military one mass convoy after another and another approaching.
08-12-2019 02:49 PM
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CrimsonPhantom Offline
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RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
[Image: d6w0jo34zzf31.jpg]
08-12-2019 04:09 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-12-2019 04:09 PM)CrimsonPhantom Wrote:  [Image: d6w0jo34zzf31.jpg]

Obviously they are "White Nationalists!"

I'm glad to see somebody still reveres what that flag stands for. It's just sad that it happens halfway around the globe and not at NFL games and in the Democratic social circles.
(This post was last modified: 08-12-2019 04:37 PM by JRsec.)
08-12-2019 04:35 PM
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