Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
Endgame for Hong Kong?
Author Message
Claw Online
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 18,503
Joined: Feb 2004
Reputation: 445
I Root For: Memphis
Location: Orangeville HELP!
Post: #21
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
If they decide to go with force in Hong Kong, they might decide to move on Taiwan at the same time. If done very swiftly on both fronts, it might be impossible to counter.
08-12-2019 04:57 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
shere khan Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 38,096
Joined: Mar 2004
Reputation: 3006
I Root For: Memphis
Location: Reverie, Tenn
Post: #22
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-12-2019 12:18 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 11:50 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  China is in a pickle. The real question is how does the world react to China's action. China can't back down. What they eventually do will define their geopolitical standing for a generation or longer

It should but it won't. The U.S. will do nothing. Everyone else will follow the lead. Eventually it will be Taiwan.

I have family in Hong Kong right now. They are corporate attorneys working for a firm there. I just pray they have a window to leave once their corporations get around to taking what is imminent seriously.


I'm honestly surprised it has taken this long for China to use a heavy hand in Hong Kong. I expected it 15 years ago.

For those that dont understand hong Kong. (Not you of course)

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world...81384.html

Secondly, I'm not sure why it is the business of the US what happens to Hong Kong, legally speaking.

Blame the United Kuckdom

Plus it causes a real logic problem for anti-colonial socialist globalists.
(This post was last modified: 08-12-2019 05:12 PM by shere khan.)
08-12-2019 04:57 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
bullet Online
Legend
*

Posts: 34,446
Joined: Apr 2012
Reputation: 959
I Root For: Texas, UK, UGA
Location:
Post: #23
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-12-2019 04:35 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 04:09 PM)CrimsonPhantom Wrote:  [Image: d6w0jo34zzf31.jpg]

Obviously they are "White Nationalists!"

I'm glad to see somebody still reveres what that flag stands for. It's just sad that it happens halfway around the globe and not at NFL games and in the Democratic social circles.

Although that is kind of like waving red in front of a bull. The only thing worse would be the Chinese Nationalist flag.
08-12-2019 05:11 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
shere khan Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 38,096
Joined: Mar 2004
Reputation: 3006
I Root For: Memphis
Location: Reverie, Tenn
Post: #24
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-12-2019 05:11 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 04:35 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 04:09 PM)CrimsonPhantom Wrote:  [Image: d6w0jo34zzf31.jpg]

Obviously they are "White Nationalists!"

I'm glad to see somebody still reveres what that flag stands for. It's just sad that it happens halfway around the globe and not at NFL games and in the Democratic social circles.

Although that is kind of like waving red in front of a bull. The only thing worse would be the Chinese Nationalist flag.

DO You mean this flag? Republic of China

[Image: rarejustpostbloodchit06673obv_524x705.jpg]

Flying Tigers Blood Chit
08-12-2019 05:26 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
solohawks Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 10,496
Joined: May 2008
Reputation: 339
I Root For: UNCW
Location: Wilmington, NC
Post: #25
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-12-2019 12:18 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 11:50 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  China is in a pickle. The real question is how does the world react to China's action. China can't back down. What they eventually do will define their geopolitical standing for a generation or longer

It should but it won't. The U.S. will do nothing. Everyone else will follow the lead. Eventually it will be Taiwan.

I have family in Hong Kong right now. They are corporate attorneys working for a firm there. I just pray they have a window to leave once their corporations get around to taking what is imminent seriously.

Exactly. The US isnt going to war over this and what other country that is actually upset by this would have the gumption to stand up to China and do something about it?? Canada?? EU?? Please

I agree with the sentiment of surprise it took this long.
08-12-2019 05:31 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Claw Online
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 18,503
Joined: Feb 2004
Reputation: 445
I Root For: Memphis
Location: Orangeville HELP!
Post: #26
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
If China marches in shooting people, it will set back back gun control here by 100 years.
08-12-2019 06:04 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JRsec Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 20,833
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 1717
I Root For: SEC
Location:
Post: #27
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-12-2019 06:04 PM)Claw Wrote:  If China marches in shooting people, it will set back back gun control here by 100 years.

We just need to send a Democratic House delegation to Hong Kong to demand the Chinese behave civilly. I would love to see AOC and Ilhan at the head of that protest! If they made it back they might have a different feeling toward the country they are supposed to serve. Nothing cures socialism like experiencing it!

The most patriotic Cuban Americans I have known escaped Fidel. They are largely ignored today by the MSM.
(This post was last modified: 08-12-2019 06:21 PM by JRsec.)
08-12-2019 06:19 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
solohawks Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 10,496
Joined: May 2008
Reputation: 339
I Root For: UNCW
Location: Wilmington, NC
Post: #28
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
Liberals like AOC wouldnt go anywhere near Hong Kong to protest. Actual danger when you leave the US and protest...unless you are supporting the President which is dangerous in the US
08-12-2019 06:38 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JRsec Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 20,833
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 1717
I Root For: SEC
Location:
Post: #29
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-12-2019 06:38 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Liberals like AOC wouldnt go anywhere near Hong Kong to protest. Actual danger when you leave the US and protest...unless you are supporting the President which is dangerous in the US

I know she wouldn't. But wouldn't it be fun if they would!
(This post was last modified: 08-12-2019 07:19 PM by JRsec.)
08-12-2019 07:12 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Murray007 Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,412
Joined: May 2012
Reputation: 57
I Root For: Old Dominion
Location: Mankato, MN
Post: #30
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
If China decides to put down the protesters in HK by force Taiwan better get ready because China might try to get both conflicts over at once... I don't see the U.S. getting involved beyond sanctions, but I could see a worldwide backlash.

We need to gather our allies in that area of the world, particularly India. As Owl mentioned, India could seize the route of half of China's oil supply in a moment.
08-12-2019 11:44 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JRsec Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 20,833
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 1717
I Root For: SEC
Location:
Post: #31
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-12-2019 11:44 PM)Murray007 Wrote:  If China decides to put down the protesters in HK by force Taiwan better get ready because China might try to get both conflicts over at once... I don't see the U.S. getting involved beyond sanctions, but I could see a worldwide backlash.

We need to gather our allies in that area of the world, particularly India. As Owl mentioned, India could seize the route of half of China's oil supply in a moment.

I think a move on Taiwan also threatens Japan and the Japanese may well urge our assistance on that matter. Even the Russians who have disputed claims in the Kuril Islands might have some input over that. We'll see.

I think China knows nobody has a legal angle to object forcefully to Hong Kong. That's not true of Taiwan, although the same concerns were noted in my original post in this thread. IMO, Taiwan could be an unexpected flash point from which future trade with China would be impossible, and that's if it didn't lead to conflict. Since they haven't the space platform we do I don't think they risk it.
08-13-2019 12:05 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Murray007 Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,412
Joined: May 2012
Reputation: 57
I Root For: Old Dominion
Location: Mankato, MN
Post: #32
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-13-2019 12:05 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 11:44 PM)Murray007 Wrote:  If China decides to put down the protesters in HK by force Taiwan better get ready because China might try to get both conflicts over at once... I don't see the U.S. getting involved beyond sanctions, but I could see a worldwide backlash.

We need to gather our allies in that area of the world, particularly India. As Owl mentioned, India could seize the route of half of China's oil supply in a moment.

I think a move on Taiwan also threatens Japan and the Japanese may well urge our assistance on that matter. Even the Russians who have disputed claims in the Kuril Islands might have some input over that. We'll see.

I think China knows nobody has a legal angle to object forcefully to Hong Kong. That's not true of Taiwan, although the same concerns were noted in my original post in this thread. IMO, Taiwan could be an unexpected flash point from which future trade with China would be impossible, and that's if it didn't lead to conflict. Since they haven't the space platform we do I don't think they risk it.

That's a good point about Taiwan, Japan would almost certainly call for aid at that point.

I'm not sure about the original U.K.-China agreement in the 80s, but didn't China agree to let Hong Kong 'sit pat' for 50 years? Of course, even if they do violate the original agreement who's going to come to the rescue? The UN?? 03-rotfl
08-13-2019 12:14 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JMUDunk Offline
Rootin' fer Dukes, bud
*

Posts: 20,033
Joined: Jan 2013
Reputation: 895
I Root For: Freedom
Location: Shmocation
Post: #33
Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-12-2019 04:57 PM)Claw Wrote:  If they decide to go with force in Hong Kong, they might decide to move on Taiwan at the same time. If done very swiftly on both fronts, it might be impossible to counter.


Geeeez, let’s hope not.


But pretty clear the crackdown on Chinas exploitation is coming home to roost for Xi.

30+ years of this crap needs to stop. I just hope my son or daughter isn’t over there making sure.

At this point one would think we can hash it out otherwise. Seems it’ll be up to the Chinese nationals.

Don’t we love ourselves some communism though, folks?

Feel the Bern, 2020!
08-13-2019 12:46 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Stugray2 Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,460
Joined: Jan 2017
Reputation: 174
I Root For: tOSU SJSU Stan'
Location: South Bay Area CA
Post: #34
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
China took control of HK in 1997, and it runs until 2047, when it's to be absorbed into China formally. Today is operates as a Special Economic Zone and Autonomous City Province within the People's Republic of China. It's sovereignty is China.

In practical terms the HK agreement is in effect a gentleman's agreement and little more. The courts have already shifted final legal authority to Beijing. This is controversial, as Britain claims it's court still has equal authority, but in practice the British courts have lapsed. The international authority over HK matters is as much as China allows, which is to say none in practice, a little bit in pomp and form.

The realities on the ground are more profoundly tilted toward China. Some 6,800 PLA troops are barracked in HK and the New Territories and at least 20,000 more are in Shenzhen (the mainland immediately adjacent to Hong Kong and the New Territories, and as many as 50,000 can be mobilized within a couple days if need. It is probable that the 6,800 man garrison has been reinforced, through rotation in, but not out as tours end -- an easy and quiet way to add force by simply extending service (it would hardly be noticed by HK locals). Chinese TV has shown armored vehicles roaming Shenzhen and nearby. So PLA move is possible.

However, this will probably be handled by police forces rather than the army:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military...nniversary

Some 12,000 riot police have been mobilized in Shenzhen and under going training. These are the ones most likely to augment the HKPD. I have been told by friends in HK that the police already include many Mainlanders; they can tell by the accents that they are from Guangdong and not HK. Also some police are refusing to wear badges, which is suspicious. And new tactics, including point plank rubber bullet firing (I can link footage) and taking out individual protesters and using much greater force are earmarks of Mainland tactics and not regular HKPD.

The way I see this playing out is a crack down. It will be by a heavily reinforced HKPD with the storming in of perhaps 12,000 additional riot police. The PLA will take a back up role, providing heavy weapons if needed, but otherwise taking over duties such as harbor policing and border control, to free another couple thousand HKPD for operational work.

If they crack down, they will haul off those they deem as leaders to the mainland for trail and imprisonment. They will likely open some reeducation camps modeled on those in Xinjiang for the Uighers and other Muslims. I see young people taking the brunt of it. The autonomy will continue to exist in name, but the politics will be restructured so that it is effectively a fully internal compartment of the PRC, just with HK face.

HK is already very unsafe for western business, as China kidnaps anyone they want and hauls them to the mainland. The extradition law is mostly a formality, as the HKPD does the surveillance for them already. Then a team comes in from the Mainland and takes their target. It is strange, but true, that they let the Triads go, but worry about booksellers. Electronic eavesdropping and theft of computer information has to be assumed. All the web is Chinese and using Chinese equipment. It is a foolish westerner who thinks there is any barrier.

CHina has already pressured businesses to fire employees who participate too loudly in the protests. Cathay Pacific tried to be neutral, but came under the ire of the mainland and a boycott because "neutrality" is seen as anti-China. But this same pressure, firing of people, students losing school enrollment, is starting to be in effect. This will ramp up, to make the cost so high to protest that few will. And those that do have a gulag to look forward to. The social point system of the mainland will also be implemented in HK, making it difficult for those deemed disloyal to move around.

China looks at the crackdowns in Myanmar and Thailand and how the West didn't do anything. Western business is uninterrupted in Bangkok, as if there never was an uprising and suppression. They expect the same will happen in HK. The West wont act, although some will get on a pedestal and proclaim this a great struggle, not really caring the horrible sentence anyone taking on Xi and his legions will face. The Chinese probably calculate correctly. Intervention will not lead to any change in the world reaction. Maybe some lofty words, but businesses will continue to be dependent on China for supply chain and rare earth materials. (I hope we get smart on that and realize we are depending upon the biggest military and political threat to the US ever)

Personally I have been telling my friends in HK that the protests need to end. If they don't they will be absorbed into China a generation earlier, and they will be subject to the social point system and the repression of China. The limbo status they want to end with clarity is the best situation they can hope for. With that limbo they have one generation, or 20 years to find a way out. But I am afraid the protests have a life of their own and they wont stop until the force of China takes them down.
08-13-2019 01:17 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Owl 69/70/75 Online
Just an old rugby coach
*

Posts: 61,685
Joined: Sep 2005
Reputation: 1382
I Root For: RiceBathChelsea
Location: Montgomery, TX

DonatorsNew Orleans Bowl
Post: #35
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
I was in Hong Kong in 1969, when it was still a Crown Colony. I was back in 2005 and again in 2017, and found it remarkable how little it had changed on those visits. China at least professed to want to keep HK as a capitalist enclave at the time. That no longer appears to be the case.

China is very vulnerable in a lot of ways. I would worry that they could crack down as a way to distract from other problems.
08-13-2019 03:34 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JMUDunk Offline
Rootin' fer Dukes, bud
*

Posts: 20,033
Joined: Jan 2013
Reputation: 895
I Root For: Freedom
Location: Shmocation
Post: #36
Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-13-2019 01:17 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  China took control of HK in 1997, and it runs until 2047, when it's to be absorbed into China formally. Today is operates as a Special Economic Zone and Autonomous City Province within the People's Republic of China. It's sovereignty is China.

In practical terms the HK agreement is in effect a gentleman's agreement and little more. The courts have already shifted final legal authority to Beijing. This is controversial, as Britain claims it's court still has equal authority, but in practice the British courts have lapsed. The international authority over HK matters is as much as China allows, which is to say none in practice, a little bit in pomp and form.

The realities on the ground are more profoundly tilted toward China. Some 6,800 PLA troops are barracked in HK and the New Territories and at least 20,000 more are in Shenzhen (the mainland immediately adjacent to Hong Kong and the New Territories, and as many as 50,000 can be mobilized within a couple days if need. It is probable that the 6,800 man garrison has been reinforced, through rotation in, but not out as tours end -- an easy and quiet way to add force by simply extending service (it would hardly be noticed by HK locals). Chinese TV has shown armored vehicles roaming Shenzhen and nearby. So PLA move is possible.

However, this will probably be handled by police forces rather than the army:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military...nniversary

Some 12,000 riot police have been mobilized in Shenzhen and under going training. These are the ones most likely to augment the HKPD. I have been told by friends in HK that the police already include many Mainlanders; they can tell by the accents that they are from Guangdong and not HK. Also some police are refusing to wear badges, which is suspicious. And new tactics, including point plank rubber bullet firing (I can link footage) and taking out individual protesters and using much greater force are earmarks of Mainland tactics and not regular HKPD.

The way I see this playing out is a crack down. It will be by a heavily reinforced HKPD with the storming in of perhaps 12,000 additional riot police. The PLA will take a back up role, providing heavy weapons if needed, but otherwise taking over duties such as harbor policing and border control, to free another couple thousand HKPD for operational work.

If they crack down, they will haul off those they deem as leaders to the mainland for trail and imprisonment. They will likely open some reeducation camps modeled on those in Xinjiang for the Uighers and other Muslims. I see young people taking the brunt of it. The autonomy will continue to exist in name, but the politics will be restructured so that it is effectively a fully internal compartment of the PRC, just with HK face.

HK is already very unsafe for western business, as China kidnaps anyone they want and hauls them to the mainland. The extradition law is mostly a formality, as the HKPD does the surveillance for them already. Then a team comes in from the Mainland and takes their target. It is strange, but true, that they let the Triads go, but worry about booksellers. Electronic eavesdropping and theft of computer information has to be assumed. All the web is Chinese and using Chinese equipment. It is a foolish westerner who thinks there is any barrier.

CHina has already pressured businesses to fire employees who participate too loudly in the protests. Cathay Pacific tried to be neutral, but came under the ire of the mainland and a boycott because "neutrality" is seen as anti-China. But this same pressure, firing of people, students losing school enrollment, is starting to be in effect. This will ramp up, to make the cost so high to protest that few will. And those that do have a gulag to look forward to. The social point system of the mainland will also be implemented in HK, making it difficult for those deemed disloyal to move around.

China looks at the crackdowns in Myanmar and Thailand and how the West didn't do anything. Western business is uninterrupted in Bangkok, as if there never was an uprising and suppression. They expect the same will happen in HK. The West wont act, although some will get on a pedestal and proclaim this a great struggle, not really caring the horrible sentence anyone taking on Xi and his legions will face. The Chinese probably calculate correctly. Intervention will not lead to any change in the world reaction. Maybe some lofty words, but businesses will continue to be dependent on China for supply chain and rare earth materials. (I hope we get smart on that and realize we are depending upon the biggest military and political threat to the US ever)

Personally I have been telling my friends in HK that the protests need to end. If they don't they will be absorbed into China a generation earlier, and they will be subject to the social point system and the repression of China. The limbo status they want to end with clarity is the best situation they can hope for. With that limbo they have one generation, or 20 years to find a way out. But I am afraid the protests have a life of their own and they wont stop until the force of China takes them down.


Insightful stuff, thx.

I remember well watching Tiananmen Sq on our 10 in, bunny eared old Panasonic back in ‘89, I think it was.

Why do I see this happening again, 30 years later? Thought Ping-pong diplomacy was supposed to fix this crap.

Wasn’t that circa 1972 or so?

Sorry, we’re in another Cold War folks. Time to take them to their knees like the Pootey-poot and Gorby.

Nary a shot fired. They need us a hella lot more then we need them.

Sorry Walmart and target
08-13-2019 04:28 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Captain Bearcat Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 5,402
Joined: Jun 2010
Reputation: 288
I Root For: UC
Location: IL & Cincinnati, USA
Post: #37
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-13-2019 01:17 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  China took control of HK in 1997, and it runs until 2047, when it's to be absorbed into China formally. Today is operates as a Special Economic Zone and Autonomous City Province within the People's Republic of China. It's sovereignty is China.

In practical terms the HK agreement is in effect a gentleman's agreement and little more. The courts have already shifted final legal authority to Beijing. This is controversial, as Britain claims it's court still has equal authority, but in practice the British courts have lapsed. The international authority over HK matters is as much as China allows, which is to say none in practice, a little bit in pomp and form.

The realities on the ground are more profoundly tilted toward China. Some 6,800 PLA troops are barracked in HK and the New Territories and at least 20,000 more are in Shenzhen (the mainland immediately adjacent to Hong Kong and the New Territories, and as many as 50,000 can be mobilized within a couple days if need. It is probable that the 6,800 man garrison has been reinforced, through rotation in, but not out as tours end -- an easy and quiet way to add force by simply extending service (it would hardly be noticed by HK locals). Chinese TV has shown armored vehicles roaming Shenzhen and nearby. So PLA move is possible.

However, this will probably be handled by police forces rather than the army:

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military...nniversary

Some 12,000 riot police have been mobilized in Shenzhen and under going training. These are the ones most likely to augment the HKPD. I have been told by friends in HK that the police already include many Mainlanders; they can tell by the accents that they are from Guangdong and not HK. Also some police are refusing to wear badges, which is suspicious. And new tactics, including point plank rubber bullet firing (I can link footage) and taking out individual protesters and using much greater force are earmarks of Mainland tactics and not regular HKPD.

The way I see this playing out is a crack down. It will be by a heavily reinforced HKPD with the storming in of perhaps 12,000 additional riot police. The PLA will take a back up role, providing heavy weapons if needed, but otherwise taking over duties such as harbor policing and border control, to free another couple thousand HKPD for operational work.

If they crack down, they will haul off those they deem as leaders to the mainland for trail and imprisonment. They will likely open some reeducation camps modeled on those in Xinjiang for the Uighers and other Muslims. I see young people taking the brunt of it. The autonomy will continue to exist in name, but the politics will be restructured so that it is effectively a fully internal compartment of the PRC, just with HK face.

HK is already very unsafe for western business, as China kidnaps anyone they want and hauls them to the mainland. The extradition law is mostly a formality, as the HKPD does the surveillance for them already. Then a team comes in from the Mainland and takes their target. It is strange, but true, that they let the Triads go, but worry about booksellers. Electronic eavesdropping and theft of computer information has to be assumed. All the web is Chinese and using Chinese equipment. It is a foolish westerner who thinks there is any barrier.

CHina has already pressured businesses to fire employees who participate too loudly in the protests. Cathay Pacific tried to be neutral, but came under the ire of the mainland and a boycott because "neutrality" is seen as anti-China. But this same pressure, firing of people, students losing school enrollment, is starting to be in effect. This will ramp up, to make the cost so high to protest that few will. And those that do have a gulag to look forward to. The social point system of the mainland will also be implemented in HK, making it difficult for those deemed disloyal to move around.

China looks at the crackdowns in Myanmar and Thailand and how the West didn't do anything. Western business is uninterrupted in Bangkok, as if there never was an uprising and suppression. They expect the same will happen in HK. The West wont act, although some will get on a pedestal and proclaim this a great struggle, not really caring the horrible sentence anyone taking on Xi and his legions will face. The Chinese probably calculate correctly. Intervention will not lead to any change in the world reaction. Maybe some lofty words, but businesses will continue to be dependent on China for supply chain and rare earth materials. (I hope we get smart on that and realize we are depending upon the biggest military and political threat to the US ever)

Personally I have been telling my friends in HK that the protests need to end. If they don't they will be absorbed into China a generation earlier, and they will be subject to the social point system and the repression of China. The limbo status they want to end with clarity is the best situation they can hope for. With that limbo they have one generation, or 20 years to find a way out. But I am afraid the protests have a life of their own and they wont stop until the force of China takes them down.

But the West is not without power in Hong Kong.

Money is power. And the West holds the money spigot.

Hong Kong isn't Myanmar. The West doesn't care about Myanmar. We care deeply about Hong Kong - even on this board, many of us have relatives there. And it has the Rule of Law, a precious thing to lose.

Around the world, the mood is very anti-China right now. China is reaping what it has sown from years of pushing people around. It's astonishing that Democrats, Republicans, Tories, Labor, Christian Democrats, Liberal Democrats, Greens, populists on both sides of the aisle, Germans, Japanese, Americans, Aussies - we all actually agree on something for once. Trump's go-it-alone leadership in this area has actually worked: he's gotten the whole world to reconsider their attitude towards China. And this is before the Hong Kong situation. What will the mood be after videos of Chinese soldiers shooting at protesters start circulating on social media?

Consider this: Crimea is historically Russian, and not a single person died in the invasion of Crimea. But the US slapped them hard enough for the Russian economy to shrink 6% immediately and severely restricted future growth.

China is much more vulnerable to external economic pressure than Russia: Russia sells commodities that are hard to switch away from and are only available in a handful of countries, while China sells cheap $hit that no one really needs and are easy to obtain from India, Ethiopia, or Indonesia.

The only question is political will. The US allies whose economies are most intertwined with China (Japan and South Korea) also have the most to fear from China getting away with aggression. They'll probably lead the charge for sanctions.
08-13-2019 05:48 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
bullet Online
Legend
*

Posts: 34,446
Joined: Apr 2012
Reputation: 959
I Root For: Texas, UK, UGA
Location:
Post: #38
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-13-2019 12:05 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 11:44 PM)Murray007 Wrote:  If China decides to put down the protesters in HK by force Taiwan better get ready because China might try to get both conflicts over at once... I don't see the U.S. getting involved beyond sanctions, but I could see a worldwide backlash.

We need to gather our allies in that area of the world, particularly India. As Owl mentioned, India could seize the route of half of China's oil supply in a moment.

I think a move on Taiwan also threatens Japan and the Japanese may well urge our assistance on that matter. Even the Russians who have disputed claims in the Kuril Islands might have some input over that. We'll see.

I think China knows nobody has a legal angle to object forcefully to Hong Kong. That's not true of Taiwan, although the same concerns were noted in my original post in this thread. IMO, Taiwan could be an unexpected flash point from which future trade with China would be impossible, and that's if it didn't lead to conflict. Since they haven't the space platform we do I don't think they risk it.

As long as Taiwan still claims to rule China, they will be patient. They are gradually buying Taiwan.
08-13-2019 07:21 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
49RFootballNow Offline
He who walks without rhythm
*

Posts: 8,401
Joined: Apr 2009
Reputation: 528
I Root For: Charlotte 49ers
Location: Metrolina
Post: #39
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-12-2019 11:28 AM)CG_Hawk06 Wrote:  Oh T-Square, Oh T-Square...

Here's the only T-Square you'll find mentioned in the PRC:

[Image: ES8112-Alumicolor-82918-18-Wood-Acrylic-T-Square-md.jpg]
08-13-2019 02:28 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Stugray2 Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,460
Joined: Jan 2017
Reputation: 174
I Root For: tOSU SJSU Stan'
Location: South Bay Area CA
Post: #40
RE: Endgame for Hong Kong?
(08-13-2019 05:48 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  But the West is not without power in Hong Kong.

Money is power. And the West holds the money spigot.

Power without the political will to use it is no power at all. Business has corrupted the decision making process. So many companies are dependent upon China for their products, especially Electronics and Computers, but also steel and many other things.

(08-13-2019 05:48 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Hong Kong isn't Myanmar. The West doesn't care about Myanmar. We care deeply about Hong Kong - even on this board, many of us have relatives there. And it has the Rule of Law, a precious thing to lose.

You have heard Jerry Tarkanian's old saying about the NCAA cracking down hard on Cleveland State because they are mad at Kentucky. Well the same thing applies here. Reagan invaded Granada mostly to send the message to the Russians and Cubans that they were now facing a regime that would not shy from confronting them

Myanmar is instructive because it is a Chinese client state. There is a consistency in their treatment of Muslims and that of China's. What has been done? Nothing.

Thailand Red Shirt crackdown? Nothing.
https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/05/18/thai...-crackdown

Hong Kong will be the same. You are fooling yourself if "this time if you cross the line we really mean it."

Do we mean it? We have American Hotels in Lhasa Tibet, which follow Chinese policy and hire only Han ethnic workers. Do we do anything about their crackdown there? no. What about the 2 million Muslims in concentration camps in Xinjiang? Nothing, no sanctions, not a peep. These are genocide policies.

Concentration camps (Gulags as the Soviets call them, "Reeducation camps" as the Chinese call them) are as far from the rule of law as you can get. Even in the US people see the law increasingly as political, they way you get things you want and force others to comply. It is not seen as the lofty majesty of truth you see it as or that I grew up with. It is seem as malleable to the norm of the day.

The overwhelming sentiment is isolationism. Let the barbarians do whatever to each other, none of our business. We have no more moral authority, and nobody is calling upon it in our politics today. It's a misplaced hope.

Bottom line: Not one American life will be risked over HK.

(08-13-2019 05:48 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Around the world, the mood is very anti-China right now. China is reaping what it has sown from years of pushing people around. It's astonishing that Democrats, Republicans, Tories, Labor, Christian Democrats, Liberal Democrats, Greens, populists on both sides of the aisle, Germans, Japanese, Americans, Aussies - we all actually agree on something for once. Trump's go-it-alone leadership in this area has actually worked: he's gotten the whole world to reconsider their attitude towards China. And this is before the Hong Kong situation. What will the mood be after videos of Chinese soldiers shooting at protesters start circulating on social media?

Mood is nothing. Within a few months of Tienanmen foreign investment in China was at a record high. And it has gone up exponentially since.

As far as action goes. I do not see any unity. Sure congress may well pass a HK act. But besides a few HK government officials it wont mean much. It'll be like sanctions on individual Russians. Same Russians travel around and live high in Europe and especially London and Paris. It's the money the West loves, and China has far more of it than Russia. Big deal if Carrie Lam's assets get seized.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-cong.../3289/text

China will handle this with Police, not PLA. Sure PLA will guard the borders and harbor. But it will be guys in HKPD uniforms carrying out the arrests raids and hauling off of people to detention and to the mainland.

(08-13-2019 05:48 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  Consider this: Crimea is historically Russian, and not a single person died in the invasion of Crimea. But the US slapped them hard enough for the Russian economy to shrink 6% immediately and severely restricted future growth.

China is much more vulnerable to external economic pressure than Russia: Russia sells commodities that are hard to switch away from and are only available in a handful of countries, while China sells cheap $hit that no one really needs and are easy to obtain from India, Ethiopia, or Indonesia.

We lack the will. Trump is generally supportive of strong rulers like Xi, and only focuses on trade. Most of the Democratic field for President is pro-China. The left is actually criticizing the protesters for being Colonialist, and criticizing them for lack of ethnic solidarity.


(08-13-2019 05:48 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  The only question is political will. The US allies whose economies are most intertwined with China (Japan and South Korea) also have the most to fear from China getting away with aggression. They'll probably lead the charge for sanctions.

The US lacks the will. Europe has even less. In your Crimea example Germany and France basically ignore it, and do business directly with Russia.

As for the Russian economy being down, I'd probably assign more of that to oil volatility than sanctions. I have not seen a single Silicon Valley company break it's ties with Russian branches.
08-13-2019 10:13 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2019 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2019 MyBB Group.