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anyone betting on the 2020 election?
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Crebman Offline
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Post: #21
RE: anyone betting on the 2020 election?
(08-12-2019 09:12 AM)king king Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 08:52 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Unless the Dems come up with a candidate who can appeal to swing voters, and can avoid constant gaffes and/or ridiculously stupid policy proposals, I think Trump wins easily.

And this is coming from someone who isn't a Repub, didn't vote for Trump last time, and won't vote for him this time, either.

This ^^^

With the exception of I am contemplating voting for him this time all while holding my nose and disbelieving that the current state of affairs dictates that I do so to ensure a Dem doesn't get in because they've officially lost they got damn minds.

I find it stunning that the Dem candidates believe their positions will be favored by the majority of Americans when they walk into the voting booth to pull the lever........never mind there isn't enough money in the world to pay for all the stuff they say they'll do.....

I'm wondering if promising free ponies is next on the list.
08-12-2019 10:44 AM
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Post: #22
RE: anyone betting on the 2020 election?
(08-12-2019 10:26 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 10:19 AM)VA49er Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 09:44 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 08:52 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Unless the Dems come up with a candidate who can appeal to swing voters, and can avoid constant gaffes and/or ridiculously stupid policy proposals, I think Trump wins easily.

And this is coming from someone who isn't a Repub, didn't vote for Trump last time, and won't vote for him this time, either.

He's not winning easily in the polls right now (but maybe that's a good sign for him). It's the Dems race to lose since his voting bloc is capped.

Considering what happened last time I'd advise to ignore the polls.

William Hill lost their asses back in 2016 because they didnt ignore the polls. They were so lop-sided heavy on Clinton bets that they decided to offer to pay a lot of those off prior to the election at a discount. They would have made a huge profit had they sat tight, instead they had to pay off all of the Trump side, after they had already paid off a lot on the Clinton side, and they lost their ass in the process.

lmao....the #1 rule is to NEVER open up the possibility to get "middled" (when you can lose both ways)...

I bet middles all the time if I get it right with the initial play....if I get it wrong, I simply suck up the loss...

I can't count how many times I've hit both sides now that live-in betting is allowed.. I've never lost both sides
08-12-2019 12:28 PM
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olliebaba Offline
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Post: #23
RE: anyone betting on the 2020 election?
(08-12-2019 10:23 AM)Kronke Wrote:  I'm beginning to agree that despite not showing as such in the polls yet, the more we hear from the dems, the more it is going to cement Trump as the favorite. Biden is a buffoon and a gaffe machine, that can't go 45 minutes before he starts slurring his words, and pochahontas is a nut.

No one else is even viable at this point. Tulsi ended camila's campaign, mayor pete is cringe and will never eclipse 0% of the black vote, and bernie has been exposed as someone that just regurgitates the same 3 talking points.

I retain the right to change that opinion if Trump follows through with any more gun control in attempt to virtue signal to the dems' outrage, as if he gives them something, they'll be satisfied and won't just come back for more after the next shooting. If he gives in to them on universal background checks, he's done.

^^If he gives in to them on universal background checks, he's done.^^

So if he does that you'll vote for the Commies KNOWING that they won't stop until the amendment itself is repealed? Plus, knowing that the Commies don't know anything about free enterprise i.e. capitalism and only taxing.

just asking
(This post was last modified: 08-12-2019 02:21 PM by olliebaba.)
08-12-2019 02:10 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #24
RE: anyone betting on the 2020 election?
There are three absolute drop dead show-stoppers for me--gun control, single-payer health care, and massive government redistribution of income and wealth. I'm not a big fan of Trump, but so far he doesn't have any of those show-stoppers. I will probably vote for the Libertarian, because Trump doesn't need me in Texas (and if he does, it's a lost cause nationally).
08-12-2019 02:24 PM
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Kronke Offline
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Post: #25
RE: anyone betting on the 2020 election?
(08-12-2019 02:10 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 10:23 AM)Kronke Wrote:  I'm beginning to agree that despite not showing as such in the polls yet, the more we hear from the dems, the more it is going to cement Trump as the favorite. Biden is a buffoon and a gaffe machine, that can't go 45 minutes before he starts slurring his words, and pochahontas is a nut.

No one else is even viable at this point. Tulsi ended camila's campaign, mayor pete is cringe and will never eclipse 0% of the black vote, and bernie has been exposed as someone that just regurgitates the same 3 talking points.

I retain the right to change that opinion if Trump follows through with any more gun control in attempt to virtue signal to the dems' outrage, as if he gives them something, they'll be satisfied and won't just come back for more after the next shooting. If he gives in to them on universal background checks, he's done.

^^If he gives in to them on universal background checks, he's done.^^

So if he does that you'll vote for the Commies KNOWING that they won't stop until the amendment itself is repealed? Plus, knowing that the Commies don't know anything about free enterprise i.e. capitalism and only taxing.

just asking

I'm just giving you the facts, what I would do is irrelevant. If he allows the democrats to implement universal background checks, which would lead to calls for a national registry in order for UBC to actually work as advertised, yes, he is done.

He won PA, MI, and WI by razor thin margins, and there are enough 2A voters in those states that wouldn't show up in 2020 if he turned his back on them that way.

I would probably write in Ted Cruz or something, a guy that is willing to take the slings and arrows for 2A when it isn't easy or particularly popular at a snapshot in time when the emotional hoards are screaming at you to "do something".


(This post was last modified: 08-12-2019 03:36 PM by Kronke.)
08-12-2019 03:25 PM
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Post: #26
RE: anyone betting on the 2020 election?
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/b...minee.html

Chances are Trump's numbers are improving because Warren has now surpassed Biden as the likely Democratic nominee. If Biden doesn't make too many gaffes, he can compete with Trump (who is prone to quite a few gaffes himself). Warren has no chance. At best, she duplicates Clinton's electoral results. But I don't think she can win a single state that Hillary didn't.

I told my sibs that Biden needs to come out now and say he's a 1-term candidate. And he needs to have a strong, young VP candidate (although I'm not sure who that would be). They're all upset with me because they all like Warren, but I keep telling them Warren will be Clinton part 2. But despite the gaffes, Biden is still the Dems best hope at this point.
08-12-2019 08:08 PM
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Post: #27
RE: anyone betting on the 2020 election?
(08-12-2019 08:08 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/b...minee.html
Chances are Trump's numbers are improving because Warren has now surpassed Biden as the likely Democratic nominee. If Biden doesn't make too many gaffes, he can compete with Trump (who is prone to quite a few gaffes himself). Warren has no chance. At best, she duplicates Clinton's electoral results. But I don't think she can win a single state that Hillary didn't.
I told my sibs that Biden needs to come out now and say he's a 1-term candidate. And he needs to have a strong, young VP candidate (although I'm not sure who that would be). They're all upset with me because they all like Warren, but I keep telling them Warren will be Clinton part 2. But despite the gaffes, Biden is still the Dems best hope at this point.

I've read a few analyses saying that the most likable candidate is the one who wins. Looking back, Bill Clinton was very likable, GWB was probably more likable than Gore or Kerry, Obama was probably so hyped that the likability question was irrelevant, and in the end Trump was probably not as unlikeable as Hillary. Biden certainly has a big lead on Warren in the likability race. And Kamala Harris is probably the most unlikeable person ever to get this far in a presidential race.
08-12-2019 08:15 PM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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Post: #28
RE: anyone betting on the 2020 election?
(08-12-2019 08:15 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 08:08 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/b...minee.html
Chances are Trump's numbers are improving because Warren has now surpassed Biden as the likely Democratic nominee. If Biden doesn't make too many gaffes, he can compete with Trump (who is prone to quite a few gaffes himself). Warren has no chance. At best, she duplicates Clinton's electoral results. But I don't think she can win a single state that Hillary didn't.
I told my sibs that Biden needs to come out now and say he's a 1-term candidate. And he needs to have a strong, young VP candidate (although I'm not sure who that would be). They're all upset with me because they all like Warren, but I keep telling them Warren will be Clinton part 2. But despite the gaffes, Biden is still the Dems best hope at this point.

I've read a few analyses saying that the most likable candidate is the one who wins. Looking back, Bill Clinton was very likable, GWB was probably more likable than Gore or Kerry, Obama was probably so hyped that the likability question was irrelevant, and in the end Trump was probably not as unlikeable as Hillary. Biden certainly has a big lead on Warren in the likability race. And Kamala Harris is probably the most unlikeable person ever to get this far in a presidential race.

John Edwards says hold my coffee.
08-12-2019 08:34 PM
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Post: #29
RE: anyone betting on the 2020 election?
(08-12-2019 08:34 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 08:15 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 08:08 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/b...minee.html
Chances are Trump's numbers are improving because Warren has now surpassed Biden as the likely Democratic nominee. If Biden doesn't make too many gaffes, he can compete with Trump (who is prone to quite a few gaffes himself). Warren has no chance. At best, she duplicates Clinton's electoral results. But I don't think she can win a single state that Hillary didn't.
I told my sibs that Biden needs to come out now and say he's a 1-term candidate. And he needs to have a strong, young VP candidate (although I'm not sure who that would be). They're all upset with me because they all like Warren, but I keep telling them Warren will be Clinton part 2. But despite the gaffes, Biden is still the Dems best hope at this point.
I've read a few analyses saying that the most likable candidate is the one who wins. Looking back, Bill Clinton was very likable, GWB was probably more likable than Gore or Kerry, Obama was probably so hyped that the likability question was irrelevant, and in the end Trump was probably not as unlikeable as Hillary. Biden certainly has a big lead on Warren in the likability race. And Kamala Harris is probably the most unlikeable person ever to get this far in a presidential race.
John Edwards says hold my coffee.

Johnny the Ambulance Chaser was just a sleaze. Kamala is more case of unlikeable because of her personality.
08-12-2019 09:22 PM
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Post: #30
anyone betting on the 2020 election?
(08-12-2019 09:49 AM)SoMs Eagle Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 09:44 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 08:52 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Unless the Dems come up with a candidate who can appeal to swing voters, and can avoid constant gaffes and/or ridiculously stupid policy proposals, I think Trump wins easily.

And this is coming from someone who isn't a Repub, didn't vote for Trump last time, and won't vote for him this time, either.

He's not winning easily in the polls right now (but maybe that's a good sign for him). It's the Dems race to lose since his voting bloc is capped.

So his “cap” last time was ‘no chance’. What’s his voting bloc capped at this time Nostradamus?


97% if I recall correctly.

MUH NATE!!! MUH TYT’s!
08-13-2019 04:42 AM
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Post: #31
RE: anyone betting on the 2020 election?
(08-12-2019 09:22 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 08:34 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 08:15 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 08:08 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/b...minee.html
Chances are Trump's numbers are improving because Warren has now surpassed Biden as the likely Democratic nominee. If Biden doesn't make too many gaffes, he can compete with Trump (who is prone to quite a few gaffes himself). Warren has no chance. At best, she duplicates Clinton's electoral results. But I don't think she can win a single state that Hillary didn't.
I told my sibs that Biden needs to come out now and say he's a 1-term candidate. And he needs to have a strong, young VP candidate (although I'm not sure who that would be). They're all upset with me because they all like Warren, but I keep telling them Warren will be Clinton part 2. But despite the gaffes, Biden is still the Dems best hope at this point.
I've read a few analyses saying that the most likable candidate is the one who wins. Looking back, Bill Clinton was very likable, GWB was probably more likable than Gore or Kerry, Obama was probably so hyped that the likability question was irrelevant, and in the end Trump was probably not as unlikeable as Hillary. Biden certainly has a big lead on Warren in the likability race. And Kamala Harris is probably the most unlikeable person ever to get this far in a presidential race.
John Edwards says hold my coffee.

Johnny the Ambulance Chaser was just a sleaze. Kamala is more case of unlikeable because of her personality.

Edwards wasn't unlikable. He shared a lot of characteristics with Bubba. Just sleazy behavior caught up to him before he ended up in a national office.
08-13-2019 07:07 AM
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Post: #32
RE: anyone betting on the 2020 election?
(08-12-2019 09:22 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 08:34 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 08:15 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 08:08 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/b...minee.html
Chances are Trump's numbers are improving because Warren has now surpassed Biden as the likely Democratic nominee. If Biden doesn't make too many gaffes, he can compete with Trump (who is prone to quite a few gaffes himself). Warren has no chance. At best, she duplicates Clinton's electoral results. But I don't think she can win a single state that Hillary didn't.
I told my sibs that Biden needs to come out now and say he's a 1-term candidate. And he needs to have a strong, young VP candidate (although I'm not sure who that would be). They're all upset with me because they all like Warren, but I keep telling them Warren will be Clinton part 2. But despite the gaffes, Biden is still the Dems best hope at this point.
I've read a few analyses saying that the most likable candidate is the one who wins. Looking back, Bill Clinton was very likable, GWB was probably more likable than Gore or Kerry, Obama was probably so hyped that the likability question was irrelevant, and in the end Trump was probably not as unlikeable as Hillary. Biden certainly has a big lead on Warren in the likability race. And Kamala Harris is probably the most unlikeable person ever to get this far in a presidential race.
John Edwards says hold my coffee.

Johnny the Ambulance Chaser was just a sleaze. Kamala is more case of unlikeable because of her personality.

Edwards was a sleaze like slick Willy, but that didn't mean he wasn't likeable.
08-13-2019 08:28 AM
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Post: #33
RE: anyone betting on the 2020 election?
I didn't think there was any way possible Obama would get re-elected. But he did.

Trump will too.
08-13-2019 08:31 AM
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Post: #34
RE: anyone betting on the 2020 election?
(08-12-2019 09:12 AM)king king Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 08:52 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Unless the Dems come up with a candidate who can appeal to swing voters, and can avoid constant gaffes and/or ridiculously stupid policy proposals, I think Trump wins easily.

And this is coming from someone who isn't a Repub, didn't vote for Trump last time, and won't vote for him this time, either.

This ^^^

With the exception of I am contemplating voting for him this time all while holding my nose and disbelieving that the current state of affairs dictates that I do so to ensure a Dem doesn't get in because they've officially lost they got damn minds.

Plenty of room on the bandwagon. We've got the best damn bandwagons, don't we folks?
(This post was last modified: 08-13-2019 08:38 AM by TigerBlue4Ever.)
08-13-2019 08:37 AM
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Post: #35
RE: anyone betting on the 2020 election?
(08-12-2019 03:25 PM)Kronke Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 02:10 PM)olliebaba Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 10:23 AM)Kronke Wrote:  I'm beginning to agree that despite not showing as such in the polls yet, the more we hear from the dems, the more it is going to cement Trump as the favorite. Biden is a buffoon and a gaffe machine, that can't go 45 minutes before he starts slurring his words, and pochahontas is a nut.

No one else is even viable at this point. Tulsi ended camila's campaign, mayor pete is cringe and will never eclipse 0% of the black vote, and bernie has been exposed as someone that just regurgitates the same 3 talking points.

I retain the right to change that opinion if Trump follows through with any more gun control in attempt to virtue signal to the dems' outrage, as if he gives them something, they'll be satisfied and won't just come back for more after the next shooting. If he gives in to them on universal background checks, he's done.

^^If he gives in to them on universal background checks, he's done.^^

So if he does that you'll vote for the Commies KNOWING that they won't stop until the amendment itself is repealed? Plus, knowing that the Commies don't know anything about free enterprise i.e. capitalism and only taxing.

just asking

I'm just giving you the facts, what I would do is irrelevant. If he allows the democrats to implement universal background checks, which would lead to calls for a national registry in order for UBC to actually work as advertised, yes, he is done.

He won PA, MI, and WI by razor thin margins, and there are enough 2A voters in those states that wouldn't show up in 2020 if he turned his back on them that way.

I would probably write in Ted Cruz or something, a guy that is willing to take the slings and arrows for 2A when it isn't easy or particularly popular at a snapshot in time when the emotional hoards are screaming at you to "do something".



I could vote for Cruz without holding my nose. I'm not sure he isn't just more of the status quo but he'd make a much more polished POTUS.
08-13-2019 08:39 AM
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TigerBlue4Ever Online
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Post: #36
RE: anyone betting on the 2020 election?
(08-13-2019 08:28 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 09:22 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 08:34 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 08:15 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 08:08 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/b...minee.html
Chances are Trump's numbers are improving because Warren has now surpassed Biden as the likely Democratic nominee. If Biden doesn't make too many gaffes, he can compete with Trump (who is prone to quite a few gaffes himself). Warren has no chance. At best, she duplicates Clinton's electoral results. But I don't think she can win a single state that Hillary didn't.
I told my sibs that Biden needs to come out now and say he's a 1-term candidate. And he needs to have a strong, young VP candidate (although I'm not sure who that would be). They're all upset with me because they all like Warren, but I keep telling them Warren will be Clinton part 2. But despite the gaffes, Biden is still the Dems best hope at this point.
I've read a few analyses saying that the most likable candidate is the one who wins. Looking back, Bill Clinton was very likable, GWB was probably more likable than Gore or Kerry, Obama was probably so hyped that the likability question was irrelevant, and in the end Trump was probably not as unlikeable as Hillary. Biden certainly has a big lead on Warren in the likability race. And Kamala Harris is probably the most unlikeable person ever to get this far in a presidential race.
John Edwards says hold my coffee.

Johnny the Ambulance Chaser was just a sleaze. Kamala is more case of unlikeable because of her personality.

Edwards was a sleaze like slick Willy, but that didn't mean he wasn't likeable.

Absolutely. I like Slick Willie myself. He appeals to the high testosterone fueled school teen still stuck inside my adult body.
(This post was last modified: 08-13-2019 08:42 AM by TigerBlue4Ever.)
08-13-2019 08:42 AM
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Post: #37
RE: anyone betting on the 2020 election?
(08-13-2019 08:31 AM)Claw Wrote:  I didn't think there was any way possible Obama would get re-elected. But he did.

Trump will too.

He might not have won had the R's advanced a stronger candidate than Romney.
08-13-2019 08:44 AM
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Post: #38
RE: anyone betting on the 2020 election?
(08-12-2019 09:44 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  
(08-12-2019 08:52 AM)TripleA Wrote:  Unless the Dems come up with a candidate who can appeal to swing voters, and can avoid constant gaffes and/or ridiculously stupid policy proposals, I think Trump wins easily.

And this is coming from someone who isn't a Repub, didn't vote for Trump last time, and won't vote for him this time, either.

He's not winning easily in the polls right now (but maybe that's a good sign for him). It's the Dems race to lose since his voting bloc is capped.

Well, you're obviously a Dem, so of course you would say that. Did you forget the 2016 polls already?

And if Trump's voting bloc is capped, then please explain what happened to get him elected over the President-in-waiting in 2016.
08-13-2019 09:21 AM
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Post: #39
RE: anyone betting on the 2020 election?
Trump keeps doing things that make me cringe, but then I look at the crop of democrats and think, "OMG, I could never, ever vote for any of these, nor would I really want to have any one of them as my president." Fortunately, I don't think Trump will need my vote in Texas, and if he does it's pretty much hopeless nationally. So I will probably vote Libertarian and pray to God that Trump wins.
(This post was last modified: 08-13-2019 10:36 AM by Owl 69/70/75.)
08-13-2019 10:00 AM
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Post: #40
RE: anyone betting on the 2020 election?
(08-13-2019 10:00 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Trump keeps doing things that make me cringe, but then I look at the crop of democrats and think, "OMG, I could never, ever vote for any of these, nor would I really want to have any one of them as my president." Fortunately, I don't thi Trump will need my vote in Texas, and if he does it's pretty much hopeless nationally. So I will probably vote Libertarian and pray to God that Trump wins.

I only see two issues with someone like you voting third party in TX.

1- If Trump only wins by a slim margin, or looses the popular vote again due to third party candidates; it gives libs fuel for continuing to "resist" Trump and to continue to argue for the elimination of the electoral college.

2- The closer the margin in victory in TX, the more dems will try to turn TX blue as they see it as more vulnerable.

just my two cents. I think protest votes, especially for a third party with quite literally no chance in winning, doesn't strengthen future third party candidate chances, nor is it viewed as a vote against the democrat candidate. Unfortunately the dem party is rapidly devolving into a rabid socialist mob and the only thing that will bring them back towards the center is a direct rebuke.
08-13-2019 10:22 AM
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