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BraveKnight Offline
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Post: #1
Big East preseason predictions
What order do you have the Big East teams finishing in this year?
08-08-2019 08:00 PM
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scoscox Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Big East preseason predictions
Knight, why are you so interested in getting our board active? Just curious why a UCF fan has such an interest.

As to your question:
1. Villanova
2. Xavier
3. Seton Hall
4. Georgetown
5. Marquette
6. Providence
7. Creighton
8. St. John’s
9. Butler
10. Depaul

7 teams make the tournament
(This post was last modified: 08-08-2019 09:44 PM by scoscox.)
08-08-2019 09:44 PM
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BraveKnight Offline
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RE: Big East preseason predictions
(08-08-2019 09:44 PM)scoscox Wrote:  Knight, why are you so interested in getting our board active? Just curious why a UCF fan has such an interest.

As to your question:
1. Villanova
2. Xavier
3. Seton Hall
4. Georgetown
5. Marquette
6. Providence
7. Creighton
8. St. John’s
9. Butler
10. Depaul

7 teams make the tournament
Because if I want to talk basketball with non-AAC fans, I have nowhere to go right now really. And I also like the Big East, so if I wanted to see their perspective on something, I'd like to come here and talk to BE fans. Same with the MWC, although that board seems long dead with little hope of revival.
08-08-2019 09:57 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #4
RE: Big East preseason predictions
my thoughts-
1 Nova
2 Seton Hall
3 Xavier
4 Marquette
5 Georgetown
6 Providence
7 Butler
8 Creighton
9 St John's
10 DePaul

I think 5 teams make tourney, with Georgetown going to Dayton as one of the last 4 in.
08-08-2019 09:59 PM
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Bogg Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Big East preseason predictions
I'll go out on a limb, even if I might look pretty dumb down the line:

1) Seton Hall
2) X
3) Nova
4) Marquette
5) Georgetown
6) Providence
7) St John's
8) DePaul
9) Butler
10) Creighton
08-08-2019 10:07 PM
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HuskyU Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Big East preseason predictions
HuskyU Hot Takes:

Nova gets dethroned.
Ewing has his best year to date.
Anderson takes the Johnnies to the NCAA's in year 1.
7 NCAA bids (5 safely in, 2 bubble/First Four). 2 NIT bids. 1 CBI bid (if accepted).

1. Xavier
2. Nova
3. Georgetown
4. Hall
5. Marquette
6. Johnnies
7. Providence
8. Butler
9. Creighton
10. Depaul
08-09-2019 08:02 AM
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scoscox Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Big East preseason predictions
(08-08-2019 09:57 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  
(08-08-2019 09:44 PM)scoscox Wrote:  Knight, why are you so interested in getting our board active? Just curious why a UCF fan has such an interest.

As to your question:
1. Villanova
2. Xavier
3. Seton Hall
4. Georgetown
5. Marquette
6. Providence
7. Creighton
8. St. John’s
9. Butler
10. Depaul

7 teams make the tournament
Because if I want to talk basketball with non-AAC fans, I have nowhere to go right now really. And I also like the Big East, so if I wanted to see their perspective on something, I'd like to come here and talk to BE fans. Same with the MWC, although that board seems long dead with little hope of revival.

Gotcha. Well I’m always down to talk basketball so I support your efforts
08-09-2019 08:25 AM
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scoscox Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Big East preseason predictions
Bogg and Huskyu,

I appreciate your Xavier picks and nova dethroned picks, which I definitely think is a strong possibility, but I think you’re both a little low on creighton. I know I had them 7th but I think they’ll be an ncaa tournament team. They have question marks in the front court, but have one of the best backcourts in the league. Zegarowski, ballock, and Alexander are all really good and should be enough to get them a bid. And for as much crap as he gets, McDermott is a pretty solid coach.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Anderson go St. John’s to the tourney. I think that’s a good hot take. I also wouldn’t be surprised if depaul is an nit team and not a cbi team if Charlie Moore gets a waiver. They’ll have a lot of talent. I wouldn’t be shocked if butler got back to the tournament either although I’m not high on lavall as a coach. It should be a big 12 type of year where almost every team is atleast on the bubble
(This post was last modified: 08-09-2019 08:35 AM by scoscox.)
08-09-2019 08:33 AM
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GoldenWarrior11 Online
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Post: #9
RE: Big East preseason predictions
1. Villanova
2. Xavier
3. Seton Hall
4. Georgetown
5. Marquette
6. Providence
7. Creighton
8. Butler
9. St. John's
10. DePaul
08-09-2019 08:44 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #10
RE: Big East preseason predictions
the key to get even 6 teams in- let alone 7 is play in OOC season. Folks say Big 12 a lot. Well- lets look at OOC records
2019- 100-30- got 6 teams in
2018- 105-22- got 7 teams in
2017- 99-26- got 6 teams in
2016- 103-23- got 7 teams in
2015- 103-22- got 7 teams in
2014- 98-26- got 7 teams in

so in the 4 years they got 7 team in- they had 26,22,23,22 OOC losses. an average of 23.25 per year.

The Big East has had exactly 1 year where they lost fewer than 29 games. That was 2 years ago. The other years- they've lost 31,31,30,29,32.

Now you can get 7 teams in with 29 losses. BUT even there with all the OOC losses, the seeds weren't great.

With double round robin- it's almost a lock that your 6th and 7th place teams are going to have at least 9 losses. So if you've gotten 4 losses OOC- you are looking at going in front of the committee with 14 losses. That's tough.
08-10-2019 01:50 PM
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novachap Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Big East preseason predictions
(08-10-2019 01:50 PM)stever20 Wrote:  the key to get even 6 teams in- let alone 7 is play in OOC season. Folks say Big 12 a lot. Well- lets look at OOC records
2019- 100-30- got 6 teams in
2018- 105-22- got 7 teams in
2017- 99-26- got 6 teams in
2016- 103-23- got 7 teams in
2015- 103-22- got 7 teams in
2014- 98-26- got 7 teams in

so in the 4 years they got 7 team in- they had 26,22,23,22 OOC losses. an average of 23.25 per year.

The Big East has had exactly 1 year where they lost fewer than 29 games. That was 2 years ago. The other years- they've lost 31,31,30,29,32.

Now you can get 7 teams in with 29 losses. BUT even there with all the OOC losses, the seeds weren't great.

With double round robin- it's almost a lock that your 6th and 7th place teams are going to have at least 9 losses. So if you've gotten 4 losses OOC- you are looking at going in front of the committee with 14 losses. That's tough.

Stever, I have disagreed with you before and saw some of your posts---particularly on HLOH-- as contrarian and that you sometimes moved the goal posts on discussions. This position is very well stated, is logical and makes sense. I think you are correct here and it would be tough for any team to sneak in with 13+ losses... not impossible, but tough. BE is going to be very balanced, so minimal OOC losses are in fact important.
08-13-2019 02:32 PM
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gtmoBlue Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Big East preseason predictions
2019-20 Big East projected final standings.

1. Villanova

2. Seton Hall This group will have to improve, but it’s got the profile of a team that’s capable of making a significant leap.

3. Creighton
4. Xavier
5. Georgetown
6. Marquette

7. DePaul With the addition of transfers PF/Ctr Carte’Are Gordon (SLU), PF Darius Hall (Ark), possible play (with waiver) of PG Charlie Moore (KU), and a standout frosh class incl. Top 100 recruits Romeo Weems and Markese Jacobs,  here’s betting DePaul equals or betters last season.

8. Providence
9. Butler
10. St Johns

Agree with Scosox that the Jays will be in the mix for bids. IMO they will contend for the 2019-20 crown. Dear Mac gets flack because he doesn't win enough and can't seem to get over the conference or NCAA hump. The badmouthing is justified. Mac's apparent goal is to be Iowa, MD, or Minnesota; a consistent midpack major - that's not what I signed up for and Creighton can do better. Both in their record and in their coach.

Got a real chuckle out of the 8th - 10th place Jays picks. Folks obviously haven't followed the conference regularly. Thanks for sharing.
(This post was last modified: 08-18-2019 10:38 AM by gtmoBlue.)
08-18-2019 10:22 AM
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scoscox Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Big East preseason predictions
(08-13-2019 02:32 PM)novachap Wrote:  minimal OOC losses are in fact important.

yes thank you stever for the incredible insight that it is in fact important to win your non-conference games. brilliant stuff
08-18-2019 01:01 PM
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scoscox Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Big East preseason predictions
(08-18-2019 10:22 AM)gtmoBlue Wrote:  2019-20 Big East projected final standings.

1. Villanova

2. Seton Hall This group will have to improve, but it’s got the profile of a team that’s capable of making a significant leap.

3. Creighton
4. Xavier
5. Georgetown
6. Marquette

7. DePaul With the addition of transfers PF/Ctr Carte’Are Gordon (SLU), PF Darius Hall (Ark), possible play (with waiver) of PG Charlie Moore (KU), and a standout frosh class incl. Top 100 recruits Romeo Weems and Markese Jacobs,  here’s betting DePaul equals or betters last season.

8. Providence
9. Butler
10. St Johns

Agree with Scosox that the Jays will be in the mix for bids. IMO they will contend for the 2019-20 crown. Dear Mac gets flack because he doesn't win enough and can't seem to get over the conference or NCAA hump. The badmouthing is justified. Mac's apparent goal is to be Iowa, MD, or Minnesota; a consistent midpack major - that's not what I signed up for and Creighton can do better. Both in their record and in their coach.

Got a real chuckle out of the 8th - 10th place Jays picks. Folks obviously haven't followed the conference regularly. Thanks for sharing.

gtmo, i back you guys up and then you go and do me like that? xavier gonna finish behind creighton even though we beat you twice last year, you guys lost your best player and we brought in a top 25 class? i gotta tell ya i don't see it.
08-18-2019 01:05 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: Big East preseason predictions
(08-18-2019 01:01 PM)scoscox Wrote:  
(08-13-2019 02:32 PM)novachap Wrote:  minimal OOC losses are in fact important.

yes thank you stever for the incredible insight that it is in fact important to win your non-conference games. brilliant stuff

A lot of folks think all you have to do is do well(or even decent) in conference play to make the tourney. That's not the case at all- your OOC matters. See Xavier last year as a great example quite frankly. Won 10 conference games between conference play and BET- and frankly wasn't even close to the tourney.

OOC play is the biggest difference between the Big 12 and Big East. It's why the big 12 has gotten more teams in and is why the teams when getting there have gotten MUCH stronger seeds. Big 12 in the 6 years has averaged 24.83 OOC losses per year. BE in those same 6 years- 29.33 OOC losses per year. It's why- BE in the 6 years 5.33 bids per year with avg seed of 6.56 while B12 in the 6 years 6.67 bids per year with avg seed of 5.48. B12 has had 13(of 40) seeds in the 6 years lower than 6. BE has had 15(of 32) seeds in the 6 years lower than 6. That's all OOC. Until the Big East can fix OOC play, they're not going to be close to the Big 12 in the ability to get teams in the tourney.
08-18-2019 02:52 PM
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scoscox Offline
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RE: Big East preseason predictions
(08-18-2019 02:52 PM)stever20 Wrote:  A lot of folks think all you have to do is do well(or even decent) in conference play to make the tourney. That's not the case at all- your OOC matters.

No one thinks this
08-18-2019 10:35 PM
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GoldenWarrior11 Online
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RE: Big East preseason predictions
(08-18-2019 02:52 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(08-18-2019 01:01 PM)scoscox Wrote:  
(08-13-2019 02:32 PM)novachap Wrote:  minimal OOC losses are in fact important.

yes thank you stever for the incredible insight that it is in fact important to win your non-conference games. brilliant stuff

A lot of folks think all you have to do is do well(or even decent) in conference play to make the tourney. That's not the case at all- your OOC matters. See Xavier last year as a great example quite frankly. Won 10 conference games between conference play and BET- and frankly wasn't even close to the tourney.

OOC play is the biggest difference between the Big 12 and Big East. It's why the big 12 has gotten more teams in and is why the teams when getting there have gotten MUCH stronger seeds. Big 12 in the 6 years has averaged 24.83 OOC losses per year. BE in those same 6 years- 29.33 OOC losses per year. It's why- BE in the 6 years 5.33 bids per year with avg seed of 6.56 while B12 in the 6 years 6.67 bids per year with avg seed of 5.48. B12 has had 13(of 40) seeds in the 6 years lower than 6. BE has had 15(of 32) seeds in the 6 years lower than 6. That's all OOC. Until the Big East can fix OOC play, they're not going to be close to the Big 12 in the ability to get teams in the tourney.

It seems odd that an average of four losses total would equate to over a full bid per year on average, let alone the dramatic difference in bid numbers with relation to seeds. Perhaps it is just who those losses are to?

Looking back at the SOS, what I have noticed, is that the SOS (and scheduling in general) has really ramped up since 2013 (year of the split). I think for many of the programs, 2013-14 (in terms of scheduling) was a wash, since the split occurred so late in the game; starting in 14-15, you can see a noticeable difference in the OOC scheduling (likely to make up for what was lost in defections). Many of the program's OOC scheduling has improved over the years (especially Creighton, Xavier, Providence, Seton Hall and Butler).

Now that the Big East has firmly established itself as a power basketball conference (once again), between the twenty conference games, UConn's addition, the Gavitt Games and the Big 12 Challenge, I think the league's teams will likely undergo another shift in scheduling to ensure that its teams does get those wins before conference play starts; then you can let everything shake out once BE-play begins. There is now no "need" to ramp up OOC scheduling due to what will be played with in-conference.
08-19-2019 11:11 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #18
RE: Big East preseason predictions
even if you take the 2013-14 season out of the equation-
5.6 bids 6.50 avg seed 29 losses
still a far cry from the Big 12. 1 extra bid and avg of 1.17 better seed than the Big East.

you say that it doesn't make sense that an average of 4 losses per year would make that big of a difference. First off it's overall (for all 6 years) 4.5 more losses per year. That's giving every other team an extra loss. Yeah, that would make a huge difference....

And now with the 20 conference games, you are in essence adding 10 more losses guaranteed. So the Big East to be equal to the Big 12 would need to finish with only 15 OOC losses on average. That's going to be really hard.

Also, don't think teams really can go St John's 2018-19 schedule and get away with it, even with 20 conference games. The tougher games are going to be still there- exempt tournaments, conference challenges. Teams might not have to ramp up their current schedules, but they can't lighten up their current schedules either.
08-19-2019 11:39 AM
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GoldenWarrior11 Online
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Post: #19
RE: Big East preseason predictions
It will be interesting to compare the Big East and Big 12 moving forward with UConn now on board, not just for adding a program of their strength, but to compare a conference of eleven against a conference of ten. Similarly, it will be fun to observe if the average number of bids increases as well as the seeds themselves (for the Big East).

The Big East, with ten members, had a nice pocket of data by being together for six years. We will need to wait until 2025/2026 to have a similar amount of data.
08-19-2019 01:20 PM
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