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How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #21
RE: How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
Considering the drastic gap in revenues between the worst of the P5 and the best of the G5 I still consider a G5 win an upset.

What the P5 don’t want you to know is that top 15 G5 schools are every bit as good as the bottom half in the P5 even though the P5 schools have vastly superior resources.
(This post was last modified: 08-06-2019 06:49 PM by Fighting Muskie.)
08-06-2019 06:48 PM
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NIU007 Offline
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Post: #22
RE: How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
(08-06-2019 01:57 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(08-06-2019 12:10 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(08-06-2019 11:33 AM)Wedge Wrote:  
(08-06-2019 06:45 AM)Bull Wrote:  Flawed premise. A lot of G5 wins over P5 are not upsets.... at least, if the media were being honest and not pushing a narrative.

That is true -- if a good G5 team beats a bad P5 team, the reaction should be, "No big deal, my team was expected to win that game, and it would have been embarrassing to lose that game."

But too often, fans of the G5 teams, and even coaches, crow over that win as much as if they'd beaten Oklahoma instead of Kansas. "We took down a team from the mighty Big 12!!!" If enough people act like their team's win over Kansas is a huge upset, then no one should be surprised if someone in the media writes it up as if it was an upset.

Playing devil's advocate...

G5 fans have to hear the rest of the year what trash their football program is and how every P5 program is the cat's of the meow. They are bombarded with this in traditional media, on social media, at the office, in their neighborhood, by a family member who is a t-shirt fan of a different school, etc. Excuse us for getting excited for beating a team that we are told prior to the game is going to kick our arse by multiple TDs.

Last year UC played UCLA to open the season. We were told by the talent on College Gameday it was going to be a slaughter. Desmond Howard started laughing at us. He said Chip Kelly was going to rest his starters after halftime. We didn't beat them on a Hail Mary Pass or some other trickeration play... we punched them in the mouth and ran the ball and played hard-nosed defense.

I can't relate to that bolded part, because I have never seen or heard of a place like that. It's possible that I haven't experienced it because such places may only exist inside the heads of some G5 fans, who filter out all the comments that don't fit that narrative. That, or that some G5 fans are prone to hyperbole. Paranoia will do that to you sometimes.

In the world I live in, most people understand, and acknowledge, that some G5 programs are better than some P5 programs, and that in any given year some G5 teams are more talented than they usually are. They also understand that some of the better G5 programs will try to schedule the better P5 programs in order to improve their chances of getting an access bowl bid. The operative word here is "try", because some of the best P5 programs don't see much value in playing them.

So instead of getting to test temselves against the Oklahomas of the world, more often than not the G5 team has to settle for the UCLAs. And when those UCLAs are having a down year, the G5 doesn't get much credit for winning. That sucks for the G5 team that tried to schedule up but failed through no fault of their own. But that's how life is sometimes. You don't always get what you deserve.

Its a little strange - fans of the P5 team that lost will often not give much credit to the G5 team. They played poorly, or it was the G5 team's Superbowl, whatever. The media though, will talk it up. When NIU beat Purdue in 2013 they got a lot of credit from the media, simply because Purdue is a big 14 team. But Purdue was just bad that year.
08-06-2019 10:11 PM
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loki_the_bubba Offline
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Post: #23
RE: How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
(08-06-2019 06:33 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Here's a list of games, which may not be incomplete as I did it quickly.

**this G5 team is hosting**
Blue - G5 team should definitely win
Green - G5 team favored and should win
Bold - G5 team not favored, but game is reasonably within shot.

BTW, I'm calling for WKU and ECU to be to be the turnaround teams for this year like Georgia Southern and Cincinnati last season and Fresno in 2017.

Sun Belt
Appalachian State versus UNC
Appalachian State versus USC
Coastal Carolina versus Kansas
Georgia Southern versus LSU
Georgia Southern versus Minnesota
Georgia State versus Tennessee
Louisiana versus Mississippi State (neutral site)
South Alabama versus Nebraska
Texas State versus Texas A&M
Troy versus Missouri
ULM versus Florida State
ULM versus Iowa State
Arkansas State versus Georgia

CUSA
Charlotte versus Clemson
Florida Atlanta versus Ohio State
La Tech versus Texas
**Middle Tennessee versus Duke**
North Texas versus Cal
Old Dominion versus Virginia Tech
Old Dominion versus Virginia
Rice versus Texas (neutral site)
**Rice versus Wake Forest**
Southern Miss versus Mississippi State
Southern Miss versus Alabama
UAB versus Tennessee
UTEP versus Texas Tech
UTSA versus Baylor
UTSA versus Texas A&M
Western Kentucky versus Louisville (neutral site)

MAC
Akron versus Illinois
**Ball State versus Indiana**
Central Michigan versus Wisconsin
Central Michigan versus Miami
Eastern Michigan versus Illinois
Eastern Michigan versus Kentucky
Ball State versus NC State
Bowling Green versus Kansas State
Bowling Green versus Notre Dame
Buffalo versus Penn State
Kent State versus Arizona State
Kent State versus Auburn
Kent State versus Wisconsin
Miami (OH) versus Iowa
Miami (OH) versus Ohio State
Northern Illinois versus Nebraska
Northern Illinois versus Utah
Northern Illinois versus Vanderbilt
Ohio versus Pittsburgh
Toledo versus Kentucky

Mountain West
Air Force versus Colorado
Boise State versus FSU (neutral site)
Colorado State versus Colorado (neutral site)
Colorado State versus Arkansas
Fresno State versus Southern Cal
**Fresno State versus Minnesota**
**Hawaii versus Arizona**
Hawaii versus Oregon State
**Hawaii versus Washington**
**Nevada versus Purdue**
Nevada versus Oregon
New Mexico versus Notre Dame
San Diego State versus UCLA
San Jose State versus Arkansas
UNLV versus Northwestern
UNLV versus Vanderbilt
Utah State versus Wake Forest
Utah State versus LSU
**Wyoming versus Missouri**

AAC
Cincinnati versus Ohio State
**Cincinnati versus UCLA**
East Carolina versus NC State
**Houston versus Oklahoma**
**Houston versus Washington State**
**Memphis versus Ole Miss**
Navy versus Notre Dame
SMU versus TCU
**Temple versus Maryland**
**Temple versus Georgia Tech**
Tulane versus Auburn
Tulsa versus Michigan State
**Tulsa versus Oklahoma State**
**USF versus Wisconsin**
**UCF versus Stanford**
UCF versus Pitt
**UConn versus Illinois**
UConn versus Indiana
USF versus Georgia Tech

Rice also hosts Baylor. We have three P5 coming to Houston.
08-06-2019 10:17 PM
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RutgersMike Offline
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Post: #24
RE: How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
It will happen every year. There isn’t a significant talent gap between upper level G5 teams and second division P5 teams. I would opine that the true upsets are D-1A versus D-1AA.
08-06-2019 11:08 PM
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JHS55 Online
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Post: #25
RE: How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
(08-06-2019 06:48 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Considering the drastic gap in revenues between the worst of the P5 and the best of the G5 I still consider a G5 win an upset.

What the P5 don’t want you to know is that top 15 G5 schools are every bit as good as the bottom half in the P5 even though the P5 schools have vastly superior resources.
People like you make me scratch my head , in your “ gap in revenue “ logic then if Alabama or most SEC teams were to play rice it would be an upset if an SEC team beat rice other that vandy or Aggie, this is what I hear you saying
Or are you saying TV revenue $50 million spends better on football than $6 billion endowment that rice has ? , hmmm whatcha got cowboy...
08-07-2019 08:40 AM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #26
RE: How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
(08-07-2019 08:40 AM)JHS55 Wrote:  
(08-06-2019 06:48 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Considering the drastic gap in revenues between the worst of the P5 and the best of the G5 I still consider a G5 win an upset.

What the P5 don’t want you to know is that top 15 G5 schools are every bit as good as the bottom half in the P5 even though the P5 schools have vastly superior resources.
People like you make me scratch my head , in your “ gap in revenue “ logic then if Alabama or most SEC teams were to play rice it would be an upset if an SEC team beat rice other that vandy or Aggie, this is what I hear you saying
Or are you saying TV revenue $50 million spends better on football than $6 billion endowment that rice has ? , hmmm whatcha got cowboy...

I’m referring to athletic revenue and athletic budgets. It would make no sense to factor in academic revenue In this equation.
08-07-2019 10:31 AM
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JHS55 Online
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Post: #27
RE: How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
So let’s boil this down a little bit more:
You think that a football team , let’s say “ Rutgers “, that now gets about $50 million a year is some how suddenly a much better on field football team than a team that gets less than $50m, let’s say this other team gets $2million a year in TV revenue and in your mind you honestly believe that Rutgers will always have the better team simply because they get paid more money
I think that the person who came up with this whole A5 g5 marketing idea is pure genius and has worked so well that when you first heard this your mind immediately became consumed with “ fake news”, I strongly suggest you stay away from Vegas because it looks like you would put your money on any team that makes more TV than the team that makes less
08-07-2019 12:49 PM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #28
RE: How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
That’s not what I’m saying at all and you’re clearly not following my posts. Any time a G5 beats a P5 the G5 ought to be hyping it as a triumph. One of the have-nots took down one of the haves.

G5 and P5 are artificial constructs designed to reinforce the Have vs Have Not mentality. The media created it and perpetuate it because it allows them to pay the G5 schools peanuts. Aside from the vastly different athletic resources the only thing different about a top half G5 and a bottom half P5 is the company they keep. Cellar dweller P5 schools get massively overpaid due to the presence of their blue blood conference mates. You could swap Memphis with Miss St and no one would know the difference because the networks are really paying for the Alabama name.
08-07-2019 02:07 PM
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Hokie4Skins Offline
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Post: #29
RE: How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
(08-05-2019 06:46 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  Well I’d like to think Houston beats Oklahoma, thats one right there

Dana Holgorsen is 0-7 against Oklahoma, so that would be a first for him.
08-07-2019 02:20 PM
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JHS55 Online
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Post: #30
RE: How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
Ok fighting Muskie, I think you do get it mostly but you are still aligning the top g5 with the bottom A5 only, so you seem to be thinking that the top of the A5 are somehow out of reach for any g5 teams and in today’s college football landscape you are correct imo
Iam a Houston cougar fan so this makes me a g5er and I wish the top 32 A5 teams split away from everyone else.... sooner the better
(This post was last modified: 08-07-2019 02:50 PM by JHS55.)
08-07-2019 02:49 PM
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JHS55 Online
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Post: #31
RE: How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
(08-07-2019 02:20 PM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 06:46 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  Well I’d like to think Houston beats Oklahoma, thats one right there

Dana Holgorsen is 0-7 against Oklahoma, so that would be a first for him.

I hope Dana gets it right this time in norman
08-07-2019 02:52 PM
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TTT Offline
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Post: #32
RE: How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
Southern Miss @ Mississippi State Week 2.....USM will win.

USM returns 82% (4th in the country) of it's teams entire offensive/defensive production from last year where we went 6-5 and missed out on a bowl game. Also, we were 7 points away from going 9-2 and hosting the CUSA championship. Mississippi State might have us beat talent-wise on paper this year (as always), but they graduated a lot of production this past year (only 57% returns this year - 92nd in the country). I've been screaming it all off-season but we're gonna beat Mississippi State this year and it really shouldn't shock anyone. Right now, the all time H2H records between us is 14-14-1...I can't wait to beat them and hold that h2h tie-breaker.
(This post was last modified: 08-07-2019 04:28 PM by TTT.)
08-07-2019 04:26 PM
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JHS55 Online
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Post: #33
RE: How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
(08-07-2019 04:26 PM)TTT Wrote:  Southern Miss @ Mississippi State Week 2.....USM will win.

USM returns 82% (4th in the country) of it's teams entire offensive/defensive production from last year where we went 6-5 and missed out on a bowl game. Also, we were 7 points away from going 9-2 and hosting the CUSA championship. Mississippi State might have us beat talent-wise on paper this year (as always), but they graduated a lot of production this past year (only 57% returns this year - 92nd in the country). I've been screaming it all off-season but we're gonna beat Mississippi State this year and it really shouldn't shock anyone. Right now, the all time H2H records between us is 14-14-1...I can't wait to beat them and hold that h2h tie-breaker.
Well which one is g5 or A5 ?
(This post was last modified: 08-07-2019 05:22 PM by JHS55.)
08-07-2019 05:22 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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Post: #34
RE: How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
(1) Cincinnati over UCLA
(2) Memphis over Ole Miss
(3) Cincinnati over Ohio St
(4) Eastern Michigan over Kentucky
(5) Fresno over Minnesota
(6) Hawai’i over Oregon St
(7) Eastern Michigan over Illinois
(8) Temple over Maryland
(9) Appalachian St over North Carolina
(10) Central Florida over Pitt
(11) Temple over Georgia Tech
(12) NIU over Vanderbilt
(13) Troy over Missouri
(14) Liberty over Rutgers
08-07-2019 11:58 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #35
RE: How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
(08-07-2019 08:40 AM)JHS55 Wrote:  Or are you saying TV revenue $50 million spends better on football than $6 billion endowment that rice has ?

It ought to be obvious that it does, since it's more athletic department revenue.

That is, the $6b endowment is not revenue, it's a capital fund. If the average rate of return is 4%, that's $240m annually. If the AD's share of endowment income was set at 10%, that's be $24m annually.

It's not as if a university like Rice is going to be devoting over 20% of it's endowment income to athletics.
(This post was last modified: 08-08-2019 01:55 AM by BruceMcF.)
08-08-2019 01:52 AM
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AppfanInCAAland Offline
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Post: #36
RE: How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
(08-07-2019 11:58 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  (1) Cincinnati over UCLA
(2) Memphis over Ole Miss
(3) Cincinnati over Ohio St
(4) Eastern Michigan over Kentucky
(5) Fresno over Minnesota
(6) Hawai’i over Oregon St
(7) Eastern Michigan over Illinois
(8) Temple over Maryland
(9) Appalachian St over North Carolina
(10) Central Florida over Pitt
(11) Temple over Georgia Tech
(12) NIU over Vanderbilt
(13) Troy over Missouri
(14) Liberty over Rutgers

4 or 5 of these games would be upsets if the P5 wins.
08-08-2019 08:26 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #37
RE: How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
(08-07-2019 04:26 PM)TTT Wrote:  Southern Miss @ Mississippi State Week 2.....USM will win.

USM returns 82% (4th in the country) of it's teams entire offensive/defensive production from last year where we went 6-5 and missed out on a bowl game. Also, we were 7 points away from going 9-2 and hosting the CUSA championship. Mississippi State might have us beat talent-wise on paper this year (as always), but they graduated a lot of production this past year (only 57% returns this year - 92nd in the country). I've been screaming it all off-season but we're gonna beat Mississippi State this year and it really shouldn't shock anyone. Right now, the all time H2H records between us is 14-14-1...I can't wait to beat them and hold that h2h tie-breaker.

From the info I've been able to find, USM's last win over Mississippi State was in 1988, 31 years ago. That appears to have been the 12th time USM beat MSU in 29 games between the two. It would be good to see them get that 13th win. Is there a point spread on that game yet?

EDIT: Correction. The site I got my initial info from did not include a USM win in the first game between the two in 1922. USM's overall record in the series is 13-16-1.
(This post was last modified: 08-08-2019 10:25 AM by ken d.)
08-08-2019 10:18 AM
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Post: #38
RE: How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
--- I made a list last year of all the G5/FCS wins over the P5. I could tell you how many there were last year. But I don't have that list in front of me right now.

--- A South Florida beating an Illinois, or Cincinnati beating a bad UCLA isn't an upset. However I do think the G5 teams getting those wins does a lot for their name and recognition.
08-11-2019 12:16 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #39
RE: How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
(08-11-2019 12:16 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  --- I made a list last year of all the G5/FCS wins over the P5. I could tell you how many there were last year. But I don't have that list in front of me right now.

--- A South Florida beating an Illinois, or Cincinnati beating a bad UCLA isn't an upset. However I do think the G5 teams getting those wins does a lot for their name and recognition.

See post #8.
08-11-2019 06:03 PM
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RE: How many G5 over P5 upsets will there be this season?
I also think the divide between the middle of the P5 and the top of the G5 is shortening. In addition to the G5 getting a BCS bowl guaranteed, nowadays you're seeing more mid P5 schools travel to G5 too. You're also seeing the top G5 schools beat the P5 more consistently. Any G5 game being watchable to anyone has given more access to the G5, increasing their brand. Alumni are able to follow their team instead of being forced to watch Large State U.
(08-06-2019 06:33 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  Here's a list of games, which may not be incomplete as I did it quickly.

**this G5 team is hosting**
Blue - G5 team should definitely win
Green - G5 team favored and should win
Bold - G5 team not favored, but game is reasonably within shot.

BTW, I'm calling for WKU and ECU to be to be the turnaround teams for this year like Georgia Southern and Cincinnati last season and Fresno in 2017.

Sun Belt
Appalachian State versus UNC
Appalachian State versus USC
Coastal Carolina versus Kansas
Georgia Southern versus LSU
Georgia Southern versus Minnesota
Georgia State versus Tennessee
Louisiana versus Mississippi State (neutral site)
South Alabama versus Nebraska
Texas State versus Texas A&M
Troy versus Missouri
ULM versus Florida State
ULM versus Iowa State
Arkansas State versus Georgia

CUSA
Charlotte versus Clemson
Florida Atlanta versus Ohio State
La Tech versus Texas
**Middle Tennessee versus Duke**
North Texas versus Cal
Old Dominion versus Virginia Tech
Old Dominion versus Virginia
Rice versus Texas (neutral site)
**Rice versus Wake Forest**
Southern Miss versus Mississippi State
Southern Miss versus Alabama
UAB versus Tennessee
UTEP versus Texas Tech
UTSA versus Baylor
UTSA versus Texas A&M
Western Kentucky versus Louisville (neutral site)

MAC
Akron versus Illinois
**Ball State versus Indiana**
Central Michigan versus Wisconsin
Central Michigan versus Miami
Eastern Michigan versus Illinois
Eastern Michigan versus Kentucky
Ball State versus NC State
Bowling Green versus Kansas State
Bowling Green versus Notre Dame
Buffalo versus Penn State
Kent State versus Arizona State
Kent State versus Auburn
Kent State versus Wisconsin
Miami (OH) versus Iowa
Miami (OH) versus Ohio State
Northern Illinois versus Nebraska
Northern Illinois versus Utah
Northern Illinois versus Vanderbilt
Ohio versus Pittsburgh
Toledo versus Kentucky

Mountain West
Air Force versus Colorado
Boise State versus FSU (neutral site)
Colorado State versus Colorado (neutral site)
Colorado State versus Arkansas
Fresno State versus Southern Cal
**Fresno State versus Minnesota**
**Hawaii versus Arizona**
Hawaii versus Oregon State
**Hawaii versus Washington**
**Nevada versus Purdue**
Nevada versus Oregon
New Mexico versus Notre Dame
San Diego State versus UCLA
San Jose State versus Arkansas
UNLV versus Northwestern
UNLV versus Vanderbilt
Utah State versus Wake Forest
Utah State versus LSU
**Wyoming versus Missouri**

AAC
Cincinnati versus Ohio State
**Cincinnati versus UCLA**
East Carolina versus NC State
**Houston versus Oklahoma**
**Houston versus Washington State**
**Memphis versus Ole Miss**
Navy versus Notre Dame
SMU versus TCU
**Temple versus Maryland**
**Temple versus Georgia Tech**
Tulane versus Auburn
Tulsa versus Michigan State
**Tulsa versus Oklahoma State**
**USF versus Wisconsin**
**UCF versus Stanford**
UCF versus Pitt
**UConn versus Illinois**
UConn versus Indiana
USF versus Georgia Tech

It's hard to say how many G5 wins there will be this year. A lot of those G5 teams you marked will win, a lot will lose, and there will be ones no one's expecting. Football's crazy like that, in a lot of games so exactly as predicted, but many don't.


(08-11-2019 06:03 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(08-11-2019 12:16 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  --- I made a list last year of all the G5/FCS wins over the P5. I could tell you how many there were last year. But I don't have that list in front of me right now.

--- A South Florida beating an Illinois, or Cincinnati beating a bad UCLA isn't an upset. However I do think the G5 teams getting those wins does a lot for their name and recognition.

See post #8.

Thank you.

I think a bad Akron over Big 10 West Champion Northwestern, and Old Diminion over a ranked #13 Virginia Tech were true upsets. Although VA Tech ended up being overrated, more often then not, the ranked P5 team ends up winning.
08-12-2019 09:06 AM
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