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tanqtonic Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Mass shootings/gun control
(08-04-2019 09:44 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 09:26 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  That graph I believe uses the definition of a mass shooting as one involving firearm violence resulting in at least four people being shot at roughly the same time and location, excluding the perpetrator.
It's obvious society is much more violent in the US at least. I don't think you can just blame mental illness. There are a ton of factors that could be at play including social media and violent video games.
I mentioned a potential solution earlier in this thread (security agencies using the dark web to thwart potential shootings), and it was completely ignored. Why has no one responded with any thoughts on that suggestion?

I think that's definitely wort considering. I think these are the kinds of things we need to be doing far more intensively. Pretty much every one of these shooters has left a trail beforehand that should have tipped someone off. So why didn't it?

I would hope that any sort of proactive law enforcement activities to identify and thwart these types of attacks would be lauded and employed.

The reason that was ignored is that one poster went down the "let's do a ban" lede along with the ancillary questions.
08-04-2019 09:56 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Mass shootings/gun control
Cities qith the most gun violence

Baltimore #4.

"The 68 people killed in mass shootings this year make up a fraction of a percent of the 12,509 people killed by guns in 2018. "
08-04-2019 10:22 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #63
RE: Mass shootings/gun control
(08-04-2019 08:35 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  [Image: Total_deaths_in_US_mass_shootings.png]
We're at 83 deaths so far in 2019. There were 102 deaths in 2018. The last year in the above graph is from 2017.
Clearly, the status quo isn't working.

Out of a population in excess of 300 million, none of those numbers is really statistically significant.
08-04-2019 10:33 PM
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RiceLad15 Online
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Post: #64
RE: Mass shootings/gun control
(08-04-2019 06:45 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  Evil and/or insane will find a way to do evil and/or insane things. I’d rather focus on identifying evil/insane and stopping and/or helping them versus focusing on particular styles of weapons or other devices used to carry out evil and/or insane.

Where do you propose we start?
08-04-2019 10:36 PM
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RiceLad15 Online
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Post: #65
RE: Mass shootings/gun control
(08-04-2019 09:08 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 08:35 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  [Image: Total_deaths_in_US_mass_shootings.png]
We're at 83 deaths so far in 2019. There were 102 deaths in 2018. The last year in the above graph is from 2017.
Clearly, the status quo isn't working.

By the way, the spike in 1999 is Columbine, which happened in the middle of the prior ban, so obviously the ban isn't the answer either. And the spike in 2007 is the worst school shooting ever, Virginia Tech, which was with pistols, so an "assault weapons ban" wouldn't have stopped that, either.

And if the ban is the answer, why were the numbers so much lower before the ban? HIPAA was passed in 1996, and placed privacy limitations on communications by mental health professionals. That may be the biggest factor of all, particularly considering that almost all of the mass shooters have turned out to be crazy. That is the one constant, not political affiliation or type of weapon.

The rise of the internet is likely the single biggest contributor to the increase in mass shootings in the US.
08-04-2019 10:38 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #66
RE: Mass shootings/gun control
(08-04-2019 10:36 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 06:45 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  Evil and/or insane will find a way to do evil and/or insane things. I’d rather focus on identifying evil/insane and stopping and/or helping them versus focusing on particular styles of weapons or other devices used to carry out evil and/or insane.
Where do you propose we start?

Mental health.

Revisit the HIPAA privacy rules.
Come up with an intensive public information program to show how identify and deal with bad behavioral patterns.
08-04-2019 10:44 PM
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tanqtonic Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Mass shootings/gun control
(08-04-2019 10:38 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 09:08 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 08:35 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  [Image: Total_deaths_in_US_mass_shootings.png]
We're at 83 deaths so far in 2019. There were 102 deaths in 2018. The last year in the above graph is from 2017.
Clearly, the status quo isn't working.

By the way, the spike in 1999 is Columbine, which happened in the middle of the prior ban, so obviously the ban isn't the answer either. And the spike in 2007 is the worst school shooting ever, Virginia Tech, which was with pistols, so an "assault weapons ban" wouldn't have stopped that, either.

And if the ban is the answer, why were the numbers so much lower before the ban? HIPAA was passed in 1996, and placed privacy limitations on communications by mental health professionals. That may be the biggest factor of all, particularly considering that almost all of the mass shooters have turned out to be crazy. That is the one constant, not political affiliation or type of weapon.

The rise of the internet is likely the single biggest contributor to the increase in mass shootings in the US.

One could also posit the rise in penetration of the 24 hour news media society. That roughly paralleled the rise of the internet as well.

One can also potentially point to the Balkanization of the United States in the last 11 years or so as a significant root. While this doesnt add to the 'wack job solo' (i.e. Luby's in Waco, Mickey Ds in San Diego pre-internet), it certainly gives rise to another class of killer --- i.e. Christchurch, El Paso, Republican baseball team, and Dayton.
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2019 10:54 PM by tanqtonic.)
08-04-2019 10:50 PM
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Rice93 Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Mass shootings/gun control
(08-04-2019 06:28 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 05:54 PM)Rice93 Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 05:33 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 05:23 PM)Rice93 Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 10:04 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Well, it looks as though the Democrats will be making this a main plank in their platforms, so starting its own thread seems apropos.

On CNN this morning, the anchors and guests are hard at work declaring these shootings to be Trump’s fault.

I think we have had relatively unfettered gun ownership in this country since 1776, yet these mass shootings are a relatively recent development. What was the difference between 2019 and 1919? I would like to hear some opinions.

The differences I can think of are the internet and 24 hour cable news.

The candidates are calling for more, stricter gun laws. IMO, the only law that would slow these shootings to a trickle would be total illegality of possession of guns. Even then, there would be some, because people who want to kill people really don’t don’t care about staying within the law. Most shooters use legal guns and passed background checks.

We still have shootings in countries with the stiffest ownership laws - Sweden, New Zealand, Australia, England. We have yet to have one in Switzerland. Maybe the presence of guns is not the factor that causes these.

OO... is this your original question to which you referred?

One obvious difference is the proliferation of rifles in 2019 that are easily available while being incredibly efficient at killing lots of people in an extremely short time span as compared to those rifles that were readily available to the public in 1919.

I agree with you that the internet has led a greater number of people being radicalized into extreme positions and that the 24-hour news cycle has fed into this.

Now to answer your question.

I don't know. But I do know some countries have lots of guns without lots of problems. Switzerland

But I think "more of the same" is not going to solve the problem. Most of these people passed a check when they legally bought their guns, and a stricter check will not change much, if anything.

I like the "red flag" Idea. I would enact a loophole to HIPAA that would allow medical doctors and mental health workers to put people on a no buy list if they are concerned. But nothing short of a complete eradication of private ownership will make a dent. People who want to do this kind of thing don't care about the laws, and they will find a way around them, just like the drug dealers in Baltimore. I think Columbine struck a chord in the minds of some off balance people, and now mass shootings are on the menu of available actions.

But if we outlaw gun ownership, they will become as rare as a bottle of whiskey in 1928, and just as hard to get and use.

I don't think you can say this. Look at the number of mass shootings in 2019 in the US versus every other country on the globe. We are an incredible outlier. Very few of these other countries have enacted a complete eradication of private ownership. Why is the frequency of mass shootings in these other countries so damn small compared to the US? What is it about us?

*edit* Tanq... do you have thoughts about why the US is such an outlier?

I'm still waiting for an answer to *my* question(s) on the 2nd Amendment. You still havent bothered with an answer, have you? You asked for background, which was supplied. Now, why dont *you* answer those questions instead of the steady stream of fairly rhetorical questions abounding from your side.

I would much rather that further gun control legislation be accomplished without amending the Constitution. This has been done in the past without changing the Constitution.

Perhaps my proposal wouldn't be possible without changing the Constitution as you pointed out. I'd have to leave that to the experts. My assumption is that you can enact some level of gun control legislation without these changes.
08-05-2019 01:41 AM
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Rice93 Offline
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Post: #69
RE: Mass shootings/gun control
(08-04-2019 07:14 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 06:43 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  From same source:

"The Crime Prevention Research Center looked at the death rates that resulted from mass shootings between the years 2009 and 2015. Here are the average death rates, [per] million, per country, between 2009 and 2015. The countries are already listed in order of the highest death rates to the lowest median death rates.

Norway 1.888
Serbia 0.381
France 0.347
Macedonia 0.337
Albania 0.206
Slovakia 0.185
Switzerland 0.142
Finland 0.132
Belgium 0.128
The Czech Republic 0.123
The United States of America 0.089
Austria 0.068
The Netherlands 0.051
Canada 0.032
England 0.027
Germany 0.023
Russia 0.012
Italy 0.009"

There goes *that* outlier......

Wait... now you guys are arguing that the United States is NOT an outlier when it comes to mass shootings??? Jeez.

I'd have to look at how that data was collected/interpreted. According to these numbers France is worse than the United States. So far in 2019 we have 251 mass shootings here while France has zero.
08-05-2019 01:48 AM
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Rice93 Offline
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Post: #70
RE: Mass shootings/gun control
(08-04-2019 08:35 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  [Image: Total_deaths_in_US_mass_shootings.png]

We're at 83 deaths so far in 2019. There were 102 deaths in 2018. The last year in the above graph is from 2017.

Clearly, the status quo isn't working.

I think we're at 251 mass shootings so far in 2019. That would put the death toll much higher?
08-05-2019 01:49 AM
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Rice93 Offline
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Post: #71
RE: Mass shootings/gun control
(08-04-2019 10:44 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 10:36 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 06:45 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  Evil and/or insane will find a way to do evil and/or insane things. I’d rather focus on identifying evil/insane and stopping and/or helping them versus focusing on particular styles of weapons or other devices used to carry out evil and/or insane.
Where do you propose we start?

Mental health.

Revisit the HIPAA privacy rules.
Come up with an intensive public information program to show how identify and deal with bad behavioral patterns.

Many of these shooters have NO mental health history and would not have been flagged in any way (see the El Paso shooter).

I like where you are going with bad behavior patterns however I would guess that many potential shooters would also be missed by this. Not to mention the privacy concerns about which many on the right would likely freak out.
08-05-2019 01:59 AM
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Rice93 Offline
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Post: #72
RE: Mass shootings/gun control
(08-04-2019 10:50 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 10:38 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 09:08 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 08:35 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  [Image: Total_deaths_in_US_mass_shootings.png]
We're at 83 deaths so far in 2019. There were 102 deaths in 2018. The last year in the above graph is from 2017.
Clearly, the status quo isn't working.

By the way, the spike in 1999 is Columbine, which happened in the middle of the prior ban, so obviously the ban isn't the answer either. And the spike in 2007 is the worst school shooting ever, Virginia Tech, which was with pistols, so an "assault weapons ban" wouldn't have stopped that, either.

And if the ban is the answer, why were the numbers so much lower before the ban? HIPAA was passed in 1996, and placed privacy limitations on communications by mental health professionals. That may be the biggest factor of all, particularly considering that almost all of the mass shooters have turned out to be crazy. That is the one constant, not political affiliation or type of weapon.

The rise of the internet is likely the single biggest contributor to the increase in mass shootings in the US.

One could also posit the rise in penetration of the 24 hour news media society. That roughly paralleled the rise of the internet as well.

agree

Quote:One can also potentially point to the Balkanization of the United States in the last 11 years or so as a significant root. While this doesnt add to the 'wack job solo' (i.e. Luby's in Waco, Mickey Ds in San Diego pre-internet), it certainly gives rise to another class of killer --- i.e. Christchurch, El Paso, Republican baseball team, and Dayton.

But many other countries have seen a similar Balkanization and you don't see a similar problem with mass shootings in most of those countries.
08-05-2019 02:06 AM
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tanqtonic Offline
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Post: #73
RE: Mass shootings/gun control
(08-05-2019 01:41 AM)Rice93 Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 06:28 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 05:54 PM)Rice93 Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 05:33 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 05:23 PM)Rice93 Wrote:  OO... is this your original question to which you referred?

One obvious difference is the proliferation of rifles in 2019 that are easily available while being incredibly efficient at killing lots of people in an extremely short time span as compared to those rifles that were readily available to the public in 1919.

I agree with you that the internet has led a greater number of people being radicalized into extreme positions and that the 24-hour news cycle has fed into this.

Now to answer your question.

I don't know. But I do know some countries have lots of guns without lots of problems. Switzerland

But I think "more of the same" is not going to solve the problem. Most of these people passed a check when they legally bought their guns, and a stricter check will not change much, if anything.

I like the "red flag" Idea. I would enact a loophole to HIPAA that would allow medical doctors and mental health workers to put people on a no buy list if they are concerned. But nothing short of a complete eradication of private ownership will make a dent. People who want to do this kind of thing don't care about the laws, and they will find a way around them, just like the drug dealers in Baltimore. I think Columbine struck a chord in the minds of some off balance people, and now mass shootings are on the menu of available actions.

But if we outlaw gun ownership, they will become as rare as a bottle of whiskey in 1928, and just as hard to get and use.

I don't think you can say this. Look at the number of mass shootings in 2019 in the US versus every other country on the globe. We are an incredible outlier. Very few of these other countries have enacted a complete eradication of private ownership. Why is the frequency of mass shootings in these other countries so damn small compared to the US? What is it about us?

*edit* Tanq... do you have thoughts about why the US is such an outlier?

I'm still waiting for an answer to *my* question(s) on the 2nd Amendment. You still havent bothered with an answer, have you? You asked for background, which was supplied. Now, why dont *you* answer those questions instead of the steady stream of fairly rhetorical questions abounding from your side.

I would much rather that further gun control legislation be accomplished without amending the Constitution. This has been done in the past without changing the Constitution.

So what happens if further gun control would run afoul of it? The question stands as asked --- do you go forward and push that envelope knowing that a valid challenge exists, or do you move to amend?

What do you cite as an example of 'what was done in the past without chang[e]'? The assault weapon ban of '94? Then do tell what that banned and how that would change the current spate? And yes, I am going to press you here; when one proposes a ban of any sort, one should have a firm grasp on what they are seeking to ban and why. Especially when it involves an enumerated fundamental right.

It doesnt help to throw out a suggestion like a 'military weapons' ban, for a limited group of people or for the population as a whole, without having a firm grasp of *what* is being asked to be banned.

I mean if you are looking at legislation like that as a panacea (which you do since you bring it up in those terms), then can you state explicitly what the ban would cover, and how that ban would effect the spate?

---------------------------------------------

And let's take the cover off the issue you (and most liberals) want to do and let's just be blunt about it for once --- in light of the mass killings you all want to go out and 'ban' things; no offense that is the first kneecap jerk that happens. Happened in response to San Diego Mickey D's shooting in '84 and has continued unabated to the present.

So you all have gotten smarter since Heller -- which kind of destroyed the magical progressive cream pie that had been baking for 30 years that the 2nd Amendment wasnt really an Amendment and should be effectively short circuited as a fundamental individual right. But since that 'living Constitution' thrust got clobbered, seemingly the left (from this perspective) has resorted to making up monikers to cover a 'style' (that really doesnt exist) for a bogeyman in hope that a ban can still go forward.

No offense, but there are progressives who are explicitly open about the efforts to limit or remove the 2nd Amendment by, well, the amendment process. Truth be told, I have nothing but respect for them for that. I dont have very much respect for: a) making up terms to create a non-existent bogeyman in order to further a farcical distinction to get a ban; b) intentionally or mistakenly trying to effect a bypass of the Constitution by those means.

Look I understand, for some people all firearms are pointy smoke sticks that go boom and are evidence of pure conservative evil. I get that. What bothers me is the villification of a class of weaponry (which truth be told has been available in a primitive form for 70-80 years; and in a modern form for 60) into something that sounds bad but is functionally indistinguishable from any other semiautomatic ever produced in order to sidestep around a rather prominent provision of the bedrock of our legal system.

*If* a ban were proposed that *can* make that distinguishing point between 'assault weapons' (nee the change to 'military style weapons' since the former term has been shown to be a farce and the concept in need of a new name) and normal semi-automatics, and has some efficacy to the issue -- I am all ears. In fact if you can show those points I might even go beyond all ears and jump into that bandwagon.

Not jumping on this to castigate those leftists who want a ban of some sort. I am just saying this so that you have the opportunity to move away from a rather cynical effort of language and allow you to be honest and straight forward about an issue; and at the same time allows you show that you have a grasp on the subject matters that it impacts, as opposed to the rhetorical flourishes that are employed on a typical and sad basis.
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2019 08:08 AM by tanqtonic.)
08-05-2019 07:01 AM
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tanqtonic Offline
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Post: #74
RE: Mass shootings/gun control
(08-05-2019 02:06 AM)Rice93 Wrote:  
Quote:One can also potentially point to the Balkanization of the United States in the last 11 years or so as a significant root. While this doesnt add to the 'wack job solo' (i.e. Luby's in Waco, Mickey Ds in San Diego pre-internet), it certainly gives rise to another class of killer --- i.e. Christchurch, El Paso, Republican baseball team, and Dayton.

But many other countries have seen a similar Balkanization and you don't see a similar problem with mass shootings in most of those countries.

You pointedly leave off the the actual Balkan countries on that list provided. Seems to me that that is the ultimate example of 'Balkanization' -- from 1914 to the present day.

In every way imaginable.
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2019 07:04 AM by tanqtonic.)
08-05-2019 07:03 AM
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Post: #75
RE: Mass shootings/gun control
The number 251 has been bandied about. I would like to see the source of that number and how it was compiled. Anybody who uses that number has to justify it.

I think most of us agree, the problem is not the guns, it is the gunmen.

I wonder what the mass shootings graph for the Prohibition years looked like?
08-05-2019 09:14 AM
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Post: #76
RE: Mass shootings/gun control
(08-05-2019 09:14 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  The number 251 has been bandied about. I would like to see the source of that number and how it was compiled. Anybody who uses that number has to justify it.

I think most of us agree, the problem is not the guns, it is the gunmen.

I wonder what the mass shootings graph for the Prohibition years looked like?

Why not a combination of both?
08-05-2019 09:37 AM
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Post: #77
RE: Mass shootings/gun control
(08-05-2019 09:37 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(08-05-2019 09:14 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  The number 251 has been bandied about. I would like to see the source of that number and how it was compiled. Anybody who uses that number has to justify it.

I think most of us agree, the problem is not the guns, it is the gunmen.

I wonder what the mass shootings graph for the Prohibition years looked like?

Why not a combination of both?

Guns without gunmen are just inanimate pieces of metal lying around.

Gunmen without guns can, and often do, find other ways to express their hate/rage.

When I was on a grand jury, we investigated three murders. One used a single-shot .22 rifle. One used a rock. One used his bare hands. What do you want to ban/restrict/etc.?

The most heinous was the one with the rock. The gun and bare hands were just rage, the former alcohol aided.

The one with the rock was a death penalty case. I oppose the death penalty. But on that day, I voted "aye".

*BTW, the one with the rock could be included in some lists of "mass" killings, as there were two victims.
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2019 09:52 AM by OptimisticOwl.)
08-05-2019 09:49 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Online
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Post: #78
RE: Mass shootings/gun control
(08-05-2019 01:59 AM)Rice93 Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 10:44 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 10:36 PM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 06:45 PM)Tomball Owl Wrote:  Evil and/or insane will find a way to do evil and/or insane things. I’d rather focus on identifying evil/insane and stopping and/or helping them versus focusing on particular styles of weapons or other devices used to carry out evil and/or insane.
Where do you propose we start?
Mental health.
Revisit the HIPAA privacy rules.
Come up with an intensive public information program to show how identify and deal with bad behavioral patterns.
Many of these shooters have NO mental health history and would not have been flagged in any way (see the El Paso shooter).
I like where you are going with bad behavior patterns however I would guess that many potential shooters would also be missed by this. Not to mention the privacy concerns about which many on the right would likely freak out.

Which ones had NO mental health history? Maybe no formal history with the mental health system, and that's a problem. But I don't recall many where obvious signs had not been there before. Thee was one, I think it was the Las Vegas shooter, but whoever it was, I remember discussion that he was an outlier because of that.

Maybe that's an area where we need a bunch of mental health work done. If we aren't good at picking up signs now, maybe we need to become good. And one thing that I think would really help is a bunch of public service adverts putting out what we have learned about how to spot tendencies. Make the public aware. We need see something, say something intros area.

What I do know is that the laundry list of gun control legislation proposed by the left has never actually brought about a significant reduction in gun violence. Australia enacted a comprehensive law incorporating virtually every one of the left's dream ideas in 1997, and in the 20 years after the law the rate of gun deaths has gone down--at the same rate it was declining in the 20 years before the law. Over 40 years, it's a straight line. Multiple studies are all over the map as to whether the law had any impact at all. What Australia and the UK both had was extremely low rates of gun violence before passing their gun control laws.

That's what we don't have. And that's what I think we need to figure out. Countries that have passed strict gun control laws without having low rates of gun violence have found that it works about as well as Prohibition worked here, maybe not as well as our War on Drugs worked.

I know there is this huge temptation to do something. But let's start with something that might work. If the empirical evidence suggested that "gun control" laws worked, I would have a different point of view. But the empirical evidence suggests that gun control laws would work as well as Prohibition.
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2019 10:03 AM by Owl 69/70/75.)
08-05-2019 09:59 AM
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Post: #79
RE: Mass shootings/gun control
(08-05-2019 01:49 AM)Rice93 Wrote:  
(08-04-2019 08:35 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  [Image: Total_deaths_in_US_mass_shootings.png]

We're at 83 deaths so far in 2019. There were 102 deaths in 2018. The last year in the above graph is from 2017.

Clearly, the status quo isn't working.

I think we're at 251 mass shootings so far in 2019. That would put the death toll much higher?

Where is the basis for 251? I am glad you think that, but I would like to see the hard facts and numbers if you dont mind. That doesnt square up in the slightest with some of the hard numbers I have seen.
08-05-2019 10:40 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #80
RE: Mass shootings/gun control
https://abcnews.go.com/US/deadly-mass-sh...d=63449799

As expected, the numbers depend on who is counting and why. This article encompasses a wide range of estimates.
08-05-2019 10:56 AM
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