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Where will the g5 be in 2026
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
Combined FBS and FCS. There are really not much differences between the top FCS school and a top P5 program like the PAC 12. Used the FCS playoffs as a NIT.
07-31-2019 12:32 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(07-30-2019 04:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 03:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Overwhelmingly likely exactly where it is now.

But if the G5 has fewer schools in 2026, IMO it will almost surely be because some schools could not afford the cost of constant $25m subsidies for football and dropped out, not because some got promoted to the P5.

If there are defections from the Big 12, and the remaining 6 or 7 schools refill by adding 4 to 7 of the existing G5 we will have a tweener conference that will be stronger than the AAC. If that happens I think there will be consolidation into a G4 and possibly even a G3.

There is as much stratification within the G5 as there is within the P5 and between the two.

I could easily see Cincinnati, Houston, South Florida, Central Florida and possibly Memphis getting the call up, and I think the metrics are there for East Carolina if they aren't too much of an outlier.

At that point I think the AAC becomes the best of the rest and CUSA and/or the Sunbelt goes away.

But this only happens if there is movement from the Big 12. Otherwise it's status quo.

If the Big 12 does implode in 2025 - I don't think it will, but if - then the big questions become (a) who gets called up to backfill the rump Big 12, and (b) is that new Big 12 still a P conference, and © where did the B12 schools that left go to?

Setting aside ©, right now, the likely suspects for (a) would be the top AAC schools - Cincy, USF, UCF, Houston, Memphis, and maybe SMU because of geography. But that's right now and a lot can change in 5+ years. Some of these schools may have fallen on hard times by then, others not on the list may have risen. Also, the top MW schools like Colorado State and Boise would be on the list as well.

As for (b), IMO the only way that a backfill Big 12 would remain a P conference is if somehow Texas and Oklahoma were still in the Big 12, that it was others that left. I can't really think of any such scenario, but if **.

But a Big 12 that consisted of say everyone currently in it but Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State and that added UCF, USF, Houston, Colorado State and Boise would not be a P conference, they would be the "new AAC", and we would have P4 consolidation.



** I can imagine a situation where Oklahoma pulls a Nebraska and decides it no longer wants to be second-fiddle to Texas, and leaves with say OK State for the SEC while Kansas leaves for the B1G ***. In that case, Texas by itself *could* reassemble a P conference around themselves out of parts from the AAC and/or MW because well they are Texas. But I don't think they would want to, because it would clearly be the weakest P conference and odds of making the playoffs would be very diminished and the media money would significantly trail the other Ps. So i think in that case, Texas too would leave, probably for the PAC but possibly to any of the other P5 conferences, the B1G being next likely.


*** Though again, I don't think this likely at all, very slim odds. In part because Oklahoma saw how well that worked out for Nebraska, LOL.
(This post was last modified: 07-31-2019 09:42 AM by quo vadis.)
07-31-2019 09:34 AM
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Jjoey52 Online
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Post: #23
Where will the g5 be in 2026
AAC will still be claiming they are P6.


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07-31-2019 12:09 PM
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Stugray2 Online
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Post: #24
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
The G5 is much harder to predict than P5: of the 65 schools in P5, we can safely say the 55 not in the B12 are all staying put. We can go further and say 6 of the 10 B12 schools are not going anywhere for certain. Of the remaining 4, 2 are merely long shots to move: TCU with Texas, should they make the call for the ACC over staying B12 or moving SEC or B1G; and by no means a given in that scenario; KU has been speculated --based on flagship status-- to possibly accompany OU or Texas to B1g or SEC, but this seems highly remote given their actual football performance and fan base, and it was based on the assumption a complimentary school is required, which it's not with division-less football looming. It'd place the chances of a TCU move at 10-15% (I give Texas a 33% chance of ACC move) and Kansas a less than 2% chance, the rest of the little-8 no chance at all. So more realistically the B12 has only two schools at risk, OU and Texas, with OU highly probable (95% chance) since it's far too large a financial difference and far too too important to the institution's long term success (same factors that drove CU and Nebraska). Texas doesn't have to move, but they still might or might not.

So what happens with the G5 as fall out?

1) If only OU leaves the B12, then BYU will almost certainly be invited as their replacement. The metrics across the board put BYU far above even the AAC schools, with no low marks in any category except possibly T9.

I don't see any additional football realignment impact, since the AAC would have it's line-up secure for the back half of it's ESPN contract and the MWC would not be touched either. The one possible fallout is Gonzaga may decide the WCC without BYU is really too rinky dink for them to remain any longer, especially with Mark Few 6 years older and succession and stature of the program long term being in an arena conference more important than the immediate payoff of dominating a terrible gym conference.

Any other fallout wont be related to the B12 losing OU. More likely causes of small realignments would be a school dropping from FBS. There are a dozen financially shaky G5 schools, with Louisiana Monroe and Eastern Michigan the most stressed, but certainly also Louisiana Tech and several MAC schools are also facing declining enrollments and very high institutional support to keep athletics going. The other stress is the internal discontent in C-USA that seems ripe for a break away group to form. The lack of AAC invites could be the catalyst for an "airport" 6 to break away and start a new conference, pulling in a couple more schools from C-USA, SBC and/or MAC. That is highly unpredictable and volatile even now.

2. Texas also leaves the B12

This is more interesting as the B12 will have to go beyond just BYU. They could opt for numbers (12) or more likely they could opt for just a 10th. But either way at least one and maybe two AAC schools will get tapped to join the B12.

Again if it's just one the AAC may opt to stand pat at 10. Frankly, VCU as a Basketball school might well be the best option. But if it's two, then they pretty much have to add at least one school to get back to 10 for football. It's difficult to predict, but the short list is pretty short:
Colorado State, Rice, Old Dominion, and if they can talk them into it Army. If BYU is passed over by the B12 they might have a shot at them -- but I think BYU will be the first choice to join the B12. No other schools have the resources to spend on an AAC level. I don't see much fall out from that further down the line, both the MWC and C-USA would probably stand pat losing one school.

In short a lot less will happen than once looked to be the case. The value of the B12 will still be higher than the American by a considerable amount, and from necessity they will remain a power conference.
07-31-2019 12:43 PM
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pablowow Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(07-30-2019 06:44 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 04:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 03:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Overwhelmingly likely exactly where it is now.

But if the G5 has fewer schools in 2026, IMO it will almost surely be because some schools could not afford the cost of constant $25m subsidies for football and dropped out, not because some got promoted to the P5.

If there are defections from the Big 12, and the remaining 6 or 7 schools refill by adding 4 to 7 of the existing G5 we will have a tweener conference that will be stronger than the AAC. If that happens I think there will be consolidation into a G4 and possibly even a G3.

There is as much stratification within the G5 as there is within the P5 and between the two.

I could easily see Cincinnati, Houston, South Florida, Central Florida and possibly Memphis getting the call up, and I think the metrics are there for East Carolina if they aren't too much of an outlier.

At that point I think the AAC becomes the best of the rest and CUSA and/or the Sunbelt goes away.

But this only happens if there is movement from the Big 12. Otherwise it's status quo.

If 4 schools leave the Big 12, I think the Big 12 rebuilds with 4 of the AAC schools you mentioned. While 12 would be good for geographic divisions I think they stay small to avoid diluting the brand more than they have to.

The AAC will rebuild from C-USA, and in turn C-USA might need a school or 2 from the SBC.

The MAC and MWC will remain unchanged:

Big 12: 10-4+4 from AAC = 10

AAC: 11-4+3 from C-USA= 10

C-USA: 14-3+1 from SBC/FCS= 12


The power 5 legislation is in place already and the big 12 and AAC will merge for 16 teams just like the rest of the power 5... the breakaway is complete...and I think the new group will retain the American brand and get a bump with the new arraignment.... the breakaway nets 80 teams and the new structure will have 8 team playoff with each power 5 with a team 1 G4 team and two at large ....

The rest of the power teams will not allow a 10 team conference after the next round...also the 16... creates two eight team divisions for regional rivalries.
07-31-2019 01:02 PM
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Rob3338 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(07-30-2019 03:12 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  In the same place as now ?
Mybe a few less teams
Mybe even a few more teams will be added from the A5
I have my bucket list

Buy a dictionary.
07-31-2019 02:00 PM
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Kit-Cat Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(07-30-2019 07:33 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  While I believe no one is moving up to a power conference, I could see a few dropping down to the FCS or going independent. I could also see the most successful and most committed programs organizing into a best of the G5 conference. Sure the AAC currently has that title, but as noted at the beginning of this post, there appears to be cracks in their solidarity.

I think there is a big question as to if forming a new G5 conference is even possible.

With the money involved now in the CFP one would think the Indy ranks would been nothing but the dregs but BYU, UConn, Army, NMSU, UMass are quality pieces to the right FB conference.

The AAC is not realigning with its TV deal. MWC needs BYU on board for a split. MAC seems immune to a defection with its upgraded bowls. Only in CUSA and SBC is the door for movement wide open but they can't scalp from any of the better positioned conferences which they need to do to be able to make it work.

For instance I think an eastern seaboard conference would need UMass and UConn but also Buffalo to make it viable. Buffalo is not going to roll the dice on a start up at this point with the MAC already established in TV and bowls. 15 years ago I believe they would have done it but neither UMass or UConn were up at the top level.
08-01-2019 09:43 AM
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Eldonabe Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(07-30-2019 03:12 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  In the same place as now ?
Mybe a few less teams
Mybe even a few more teams will be added from the A5
I have my bucket list

The G5 will be the G6 when the Big XII implodes and the P5 becomes the P4.
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2019 11:21 AM by Eldonabe.)
08-01-2019 01:02 PM
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JHS55 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(08-01-2019 01:02 PM)Eldonabe Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 03:12 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  In the same place as now ?
Mybe a few less teams
Mybe even a few more teams will be added from the A5
I have my bucket list

The G5 will be the G6 when the Big IX implodes and the P5 becomes the P4.
This could be true but I think it more likely that it’s the pacific 12 that implodes and becomes a g6
08-01-2019 01:46 PM
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33laszlo99 Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(07-30-2019 05:29 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 03:30 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  I have to believe that some of these schools who are paying buckets of money they cannot afford will drop down. If state legislators continue to clamp down on college budgets, some of these schools are going to have to make the correct decision to spend less on sports.

Eventually. The pressure will start building right around the 2026 date mentioned in the OP. There are a lot of G5 programs running big deficits, crossing their fingers, sticking pins into voodoo dolls, whatever, hoping that they will be delivered to the promised land by P5 chaos. If there is no chaos (and IMO there won't be) by the time the next CFP deal is signed, then the G5 programs that are most squeezed by financial and/or political pressures will consider either dropping football entirely or just finding a much less costly way to run their football program.

Nevermind the the G5 football programs. How many of those universities will even exist ten years from now. (No, not global warming.) The hideous student loan racket will cave in upon itself and these schools will have to actually earn their place in the market. Take a long look at the MAC. See any essential academic stalwarts that we just can't do without? Miami's nice, but essential? Naaah.

Very large schools with extensive infrastructure will be able to field a scholarship based athletic program. The remaining survivors will be Div III or will offer club sports.
08-01-2019 02:00 PM
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Post: #31
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
I think if we stuck someone in the freezer and thawed them out in 2026 they wouldn't notice much difference other than we might see different looking helmets in 2026.

Wouldn't be shocked if there were a few changes in the lineups among the G5+ (ie. the five conferences plus non-Notre Dame independents). Maybe Army or BYU finds a conference to their liking. Maybe someone finds the economic stress too much and drops football or less likely drops to FCS (I say less likely because the Idaho isolation situation was truly unique).

For the most part dropping football likely needs a certain set of things to line up.
1. Extended fan frustration that has eroded the base of FBS football or die fans.
2. A university CEO who is at least agnostic about athletics if not against.
3. Budgetary crisis. The collision of a school issue and state issue would be most likely though a private could go down just on an internal crisis. I think the more likely scenario is School X budgets based on expected enrollment figure and misses by a significant margin and the state is unable to bail them out and the school can't find enough cuts and has to cut football.
08-01-2019 02:24 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(08-01-2019 02:00 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 05:29 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 03:30 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  I have to believe that some of these schools who are paying buckets of money they cannot afford will drop down. If state legislators continue to clamp down on college budgets, some of these schools are going to have to make the correct decision to spend less on sports.

Eventually. The pressure will start building right around the 2026 date mentioned in the OP. There are a lot of G5 programs running big deficits, crossing their fingers, sticking pins into voodoo dolls, whatever, hoping that they will be delivered to the promised land by P5 chaos. If there is no chaos (and IMO there won't be) by the time the next CFP deal is signed, then the G5 programs that are most squeezed by financial and/or political pressures will consider either dropping football entirely or just finding a much less costly way to run their football program.

Nevermind the the G5 football programs. How many of those universities will even exist ten years from now. (No, not global warming.) The hideous student loan racket will cave in upon itself and these schools will have to actually earn their place in the market. Take a long look at the MAC. See any essential academic stalwarts that we just can't do without? Miami's nice, but essential? Naaah.

Very large schools with extensive infrastructure will be able to field a scholarship based athletic program. The remaining survivors will be Div III or will offer club sports.

This is prescient, a few decades out, and already in the works in various ways, the most efficient of which is yet to emerge. That said telling folks suffering from the stress of future shock the end game will probably blow circuits, lead to PTSD reactions, and conclude with more denial. The frogs only think the water is warmer.
08-01-2019 02:25 PM
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Stugray2 Online
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Post: #33
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(07-30-2019 05:02 AM)Rob3338 Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 05:39 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State is a R2 in academics. They are not terrible.

I assure you Boise is listed in national ranking publications as NOT IN THE TOP 600 COLLEGE AND UNIVERSITIES IN THE USA. That sir is not just bad it is god awful bad. In at least 2 of the more prominent publications they ARE NOT IN THE TOP 900 UNIVERSITIES.

(08-01-2019 02:24 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think if we stuck someone in the freezer and thawed them out in 2026 they wouldn't notice much difference other than we might see different looking helmets in 2026.

Wouldn't be shocked if there were a few changes in the lineups among the G5+ (ie. the five conferences plus non-Notre Dame independents). Maybe Army or BYU finds a conference to their liking. Maybe someone finds the economic stress too much and drops football or less likely drops to FCS (I say less likely because the Idaho isolation situation was truly unique).

For the most part dropping football likely needs a certain set of things to line up.
1. Extended fan frustration that has eroded the base of FBS football or die fans.
2. A university CEO who is at least agnostic about athletics if not against.
3. Budgetary crisis. The collision of a school issue and state issue would be most likely though a private could go down just on an internal crisis. I think the more likely scenario is School X budgets based on expected enrollment figure and misses by a significant margin and the state is unable to bail them out and the school can't find enough cuts and has to cut football.

This is pretty much true.

Of course there is resistance to the inevitable, such as at UAB where donors give 5x as much as can be raised through gate (even students don't go to UAB games they have gotten $1.2M on gate very year for all sports from 2005 to the present --- flat lined, really steady decline when you figure the 40% inflation over that period) indicating an aging and dying out fan base (but clearly wealthy enough).

Then there is the crazy resistance like at Chicago State, where enroll is down to about 1300 FT students, and the program is dead out of money, paying HS salaries to coaches, but they still try to play D-I despite losing 90% or more of their games in every sport, playing before empty seats and besides a $95,000 one time donation in 2017, have collected only $11,000 and about $50,000 in gate over the last decade total (!!!). About $600K in rights and distributions, all at the cost of $43M in support.

So killing athletics, or even dropping down is nearly impossible as every employee in the department, plus their spouses, the players and others attached to the programs (local sports writers included) becomes a 24/7 advocate for the program and screams and yells.

It takes a really hard nosed school leader to pull the plug or lower the classification when faced with such opposition. This is even more true at public schools, where state employees are well trained in lobbying and public pressure techniques.
08-01-2019 10:43 PM
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33laszlo99 Offline
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Post: #34
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(08-01-2019 10:43 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 05:02 AM)Rob3338 Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 05:39 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Boise State is a R2 in academics. They are not terrible.

I assure you Boise is listed in national ranking publications as NOT IN THE TOP 600 COLLEGE AND UNIVERSITIES IN THE USA. That sir is not just bad it is god awful bad. In at least 2 of the more prominent publications they ARE NOT IN THE TOP 900 UNIVERSITIES.

(08-01-2019 02:24 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I think if we stuck someone in the freezer and thawed them out in 2026 they wouldn't notice much difference other than we might see different looking helmets in 2026.

Wouldn't be shocked if there were a few changes in the lineups among the G5+ (ie. the five conferences plus non-Notre Dame independents). Maybe Army or BYU finds a conference to their liking. Maybe someone finds the economic stress too much and drops football or less likely drops to FCS (I say less likely because the Idaho isolation situation was truly unique).

For the most part dropping football likely needs a certain set of things to line up.
1. Extended fan frustration that has eroded the base of FBS football or die fans.
2. A university CEO who is at least agnostic about athletics if not against.
3. Budgetary crisis. The collision of a school issue and state issue would be most likely though a private could go down just on an internal crisis. I think the more likely scenario is School X budgets based on expected enrollment figure and misses by a significant margin and the state is unable to bail them out and the school can't find enough cuts and has to cut football.

This is pretty much true.

Of course there is resistance to the inevitable, such as at UAB where donors give 5x as much as can be raised through gate (even students don't go to UAB games they have gotten $1.2M on gate very year for all sports from 2005 to the present --- flat lined, really steady decline when you figure the 40% inflation over that period) indicating an aging and dying out fan base (but clearly wealthy enough).

Then there is the crazy resistance like at Chicago State, where enroll is down to about 1300 FT students, and the program is dead out of money, paying HS salaries to coaches, but they still try to play D-I despite losing 90% or more of their games in every sport, playing before empty seats and besides a $95,000 one time donation in 2017, have collected only $11,000 and about $50,000 in gate over the last decade total (!!!). About $600K in rights and distributions, all at the cost of $43M in support.

So killing athletics, or even dropping down is nearly impossible as every employee in the department, plus their spouses, the players and others attached to the programs (local sports writers included) becomes a 24/7 advocate for the program and screams and yells.

It takes a really hard nosed school leader to pull the plug or lower the classification when faced with such opposition. This is even more true at public schools, where state employees are well trained in lobbying and public pressure techniques.

Please, Stu, if you're going to talk about fiscal responsibility, don't use the State of Illinois as your example. I read a while back that they were handing out IOU's to state lottery winners.

The good news is that even Chicago State has some sort of governing body that, hopefully includes some out-of-staters, and will eventually rein-in the admistration. (Am I deluding myself?)
08-01-2019 11:48 PM
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Eldonabe Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(08-01-2019 01:46 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  
(08-01-2019 01:02 PM)Eldonabe Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 03:12 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  In the same place as now ?
Mybe a few less teams
Mybe even a few more teams will be added from the A5
I have my bucket list

The G5 will be the G6 when the Big XII implodes and the P5 becomes the P4.
This could be true but I think it more likely that it’s the pacific 12 that implodes and becomes a g6

I gave that some thought too, but I don;t think that will happen. There are too many "big name" schools out there that are just too far away geographically to splinter up. Once Texas and Oklahoma jump (which seems inevitable?) - Kansas will have no choice to save their hoops. That leaves a very distinct NON-P5 conference left to pick up few if any schools that would elevate them back to that status.

The Pac 12's problem is that they just have not been that competitive lately. But they still represent historically significant programs.
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2019 11:20 AM by Eldonabe.)
08-02-2019 11:20 AM
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zoocrew Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(07-30-2019 11:56 PM)Rob3338 Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 05:02 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 04:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 03:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Overwhelmingly likely exactly where it is now.

But if the G5 has fewer schools in 2026, IMO it will almost surely be because some schools could not afford the cost of constant $25m subsidies for football and dropped out, not because some got promoted to the P5.

If there are defections from the Big 12, and the remaining 6 or 7 schools refill by adding 4 to 7 of the existing G5 we will have a tweener conference that will be stronger than the AAC. If that happens I think there will be consolidation into a G4 and possibly even a G3.

There is as much stratification within the G5 as there is within the P5 and between the two.

I could easily see Cincinnati, Houston, South Florida, Central Florida and possibly Memphis getting the call up, and I think the metrics are there for East Carolina if they aren't too much of an outlier.

At that point I think the AAC becomes the best of the rest and CUSA and/or the Sunbelt goes away.

But this only happens if there is movement from the Big 12. Otherwise it's status quo.

I'd think Temple would get the call before ECU.

I agree with either Temple, or BYU joining Cincy, Houston the Florida twins and perhaps Memphis. ECU seems a distant outsider.

Yeah I’d guess Temple is a near lock if West Virginia is left in the Big 12. Especially if their new coach can continue their recent success so they can keep building their program. Don’t see anyway ECU is involved.

Honestly if I had to guess what changes I’d say UT and OU leave along with 2 tag alongs putting the Big 12 at 6 and then they add 6 teams from the American so they can get to 12 and have divisions. Don’t see BYU involved in any scenario.

UCF, USF, Cincy, Temple, Houston, Memphis

I expect that year the playoff gets expanded to 8 as well. I could see ESPN getting fully invested in this tweener Big 12 and propping them up so much that they get 1 team in the 8 team playoff almost yearly.
08-02-2019 11:57 AM
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Post: #37
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(08-02-2019 11:20 AM)Eldonabe Wrote:  
(08-01-2019 01:46 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  
(08-01-2019 01:02 PM)Eldonabe Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 03:12 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  In the same place as now ?
Mybe a few less teams
Mybe even a few more teams will be added from the A5
I have my bucket list

The G5 will be the G6 when the Big XII implodes and the P5 becomes the P4.
This could be true but I think it more likely that it’s the pacific 12 that implodes and becomes a g6

I gave that some thought too, but I don;t think that will happen. There are too many "big name" schools out there that are just too far away geographically to splinter up. Once Texas and Oklahoma jump (which seems inevitable?) - Kansas will have no choice to save their hoops. That leaves a very distinct NON-P5 conference left to pick up few if any schools that would elevate them back to that status.

The Pac 12's problem is that they just have not been that competitive lately. But they still represent historically significant programs.

Might the Big East be willing to take Kansas? KU could go UConn and formally deemphasize FB in favor of BB. Also, travel partner for Creighton.
08-02-2019 03:35 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(08-01-2019 09:43 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  
(07-30-2019 07:33 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  While I believe no one is moving up to a power conference, I could see a few dropping down to the FCS or going independent. I could also see the most successful and most committed programs organizing into a best of the G5 conference. Sure the AAC currently has that title, but as noted at the beginning of this post, there appears to be cracks in their solidarity.

I think there is a big question as to if forming a new G5 conference is even possible.

With the money involved now in the CFP one would think the Indy ranks would been nothing but the dregs but BYU, UConn, Army, NMSU, UMass are quality pieces to the right FB conference.

The AAC is not realigning with its TV deal. MWC needs BYU on board for a split. MAC seems immune to a defection with its upgraded bowls. Only in CUSA and SBC is the door for movement wide open but they can't scalp from any of the better positioned conferences which they need to do to be able to make it work.

For instance I think an eastern seaboard conference would need UMass and UConn but also Buffalo to make it viable. Buffalo is not going to roll the dice on a start up at this point with the MAC already established in TV and bowls. 15 years ago I believe they would have done it but neither UMass or UConn were up at the top level.

The bowl ties run through 2025, that is why this thread is about where things will stand in 2026. Between now and 2026 programs will rise and fall. 7 years ago (2012) USF went 3-9 in the Big East, Tulsa was 11-3, ECU went 8-5, and San Jose finished the season ranked 21st with an 11-2 record. The fortunes of many teams will change by 2026. If ESPN is presented with the right combination of large public programs I could certainly see the new conference getting a slice of the next playoff contract, a nice bowl line-up, and an auto-bid to the NCAA tournament. Because a new 12/14 member conference would almost certainly kill one of the existing G5's, as back filling occurs.
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2019 09:26 PM by Side Show Joe.)
08-02-2019 09:25 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
(08-01-2019 02:00 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  Nevermind the the G5 football programs. How many of those universities will even exist ten years from now. (No, not global warming.) The hideous student loan racket will cave in upon itself and these schools will have to actually earn their place in the market.

... so far, so good ...

Quote: ... Take a long look at the MAC. See any essential academic stalwarts that we just can't do without? Miami's nice, but essential? Naaah.

This is where it goes off the rails. Yes, take a long look at the MAC. Which of these schools would be in serious peril if there was a collapse of the student loan racket, without some other student funding system taking it's place? You obviously didn't even take a long look at the MAC if your list of "academic stalwarts" started with Miami and ignored Buffalo, the sole AAU member in the MAC. So let's start with Buffalo and work our way East ...

In Ohio, Akron might be in a bit of bother ... as they already are ... but Miami, Ohio, Kent, Bowling Green, Toledo were well ensconced quite a long time before student loans were a serious funding source. Altogether they'd have more alumni in Ohio than OSU. The idea that they are going to get the ax in ten year's time is a bit silly. Have to make some painful adjustments ... sure. Shut down? Not on that time scale.

Seems like you could add CMU, WMU and Ball State to that list. EMU is not at threat of shutting down but it's one school that would do well to have some FB success to make its case easier if it has to call on its alumni to help save the program in some Michigan academic policy fight.

Sh!t tends to roll downhill ... if someone posits that the share of University enrollments falls by 25% over the next ten years, that's going to shut down quite a substantial number of institutions ... but it's not going to be the kind of Universities that were in the MAC as of 1990 that are going to bear the brunt of those shutdowns.

Also, to keep the overseas students money train going, Whiskey, OSU, TSUN, Purdue and Illinois have to maintain their position among the top 100 on the Shanghai list, so they aren't just going to drop their enrollment standard to maintain their current in-state enrollment numbers, in response to a shrinking pool of applicants ... they'll nudge the enrollment standard down, but also allow the in-state enrollment numbers to shrink, so their share of the applicant pool won't increase as fast as it might ...

... so while the schools the next step and two down from there will face a double squeeze from a smaller pool of applicants and more second-choice applicants getting their first choice, it won't be as severe at the MAC levels as it will be the next several steps down, where a larger number of their second-choice applicants will be getting their first-choice enrollment in the MAC levels of Universities.
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2019 10:06 PM by BruceMcF.)
08-02-2019 10:04 PM
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Section 200 Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Where will the g5 be in 2026
One item not discussed is if any P5 programs will drop football by 2026. Perhaps Cal and Stanford will decide the sport is too risky? Or maybe Duke, Vanderbilt or Northwestern? Whoever it may be, that would create openings in P5 conferences that they may or may not fill. For example, does the Pac-12 just stay at 10 football members if Stanford and Cal drop football? If Duke drops football, does the ACC add a school for 14 football & 16 other sport schools?

It may take longer than 2026 for the elite academic schools to drop football, but it could happen sooner. Does Cal really get any benefit from a football program? My guess is Cal can enroll an unlimited number of the most highly qualified students with or without football and Stanford and UCLA can too.
08-03-2019 01:13 PM
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