https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/07/...Z8TdygOnPI

(07-24-2019 04:15 PM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/07/...Z8TdygOnPI

If you want to know how bogus some of this data is just check out Kansas. They've averaged under 25,000 each of the last 3 years and were under 20,000 at least once. There's literally no mathematical way they averaged 51,000 for 5 years.

Most of it looked close, but Kansas was a glaring error.

All of the attendance numbers are hooey. Some, much more than others.

There was a good article a couple of weeks ago about FBS teams close to the bottom in attendance and the hoops they jump through for the silly minimum attendance requirement. One story from the article:

Quote:Kent State received a notice of noncompliance after recording attendance of 8,999 in 2007 and 10,639 in 2008. . . .

Quote:Kent State began an internal campaign called “90K,” because Kent State would need to hit 90,000 total fans to meet the requirement. It began the up-and-down trend. According to KentWired, Kent State’s paid attendance was more than 15,000 in 2010, 2012 and 2014, and it was below 7,100 in 2009, 2011 and 2013. The school did not respond to The Athletic’s request for more recent data.

Kent State gets to 15,000 through its marketing deal with IMG. In years when it needs to hit the mark, Kent State uses IMG money to buy discounted tickets from itself. Per NCAA rules, discount tickets are required to be at least one-third of the price of the most expensive available tickets.

(07-24-2019 05:15 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-24-2019 04:15 PM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/07/...Z8TdygOnPI

If you want to know how bogus some of this data is just check out Kansas. They've averaged under 25,000 each of the last 3 years and were under 20,000 at least once. There's literally no mathematical way they averaged 51,000 for 5 years.

Most of it looked close, but Kansas was a glaring error.

Uhhh... the report shows Kansas had an average of 26,650.

(07-24-2019 05:45 PM)MAcFroggy Wrote:  

(07-24-2019 05:15 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-24-2019 04:15 PM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/07/...Z8TdygOnPI

If you want to know how bogus some of this data is just check out Kansas. They've averaged under 25,000 each of the last 3 years and were under 20,000 at least once. There's literally no mathematical way they averaged 51,000 for 5 years.

Most of it looked close, but Kansas was a glaring error.

Uhhh... the report shows Kansas had an average of 26,650.

You are correct, my eyes jumped to KState's numbers when I looked away while writing them down to compare to the numbers I save every year. Still there are some glosses in these averages.

The P5 Average Attendance by Conference for 2018:
SEC: 74,191
B1G: 64,739
B12: 55,981
ACC: 48,079
PAC: 47,218

Are they counting 2015-16 in UAB's average? That doesn't seem right.

(07-24-2019 05:57 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-24-2019 05:45 PM)MAcFroggy Wrote:  

(07-24-2019 05:15 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-24-2019 04:15 PM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/07/...Z8TdygOnPI

If you want to know how bogus some of this data is just check out Kansas. They've averaged under 25,000 each of the last 3 years and were under 20,000 at least once. There's literally no mathematical way they averaged 51,000 for 5 years.

Most of it looked close, but Kansas was a glaring error.

Uhhh... the report shows Kansas had an average of 26,650.

You are correct, my eyes jumped to KState's numbers when I looked away while writing them down to compare to the numbers I save every year. Still there are some glosses in these averages.

The P5 Average Attendance by Conference for 2018:
SEC: 74,191
B1G: 64,739
B12: 55,981
ACC: 48,079
PAC: 47,218

So, the only schools that would improve the average SEC or B1G numbers are:

- Texas (94,754)
- Oklahoma (86,126)
- Clemson (81,586)
- Notre Dame (79,525)
- Florida State (74,292)

No surprises there.

Also, no surprise that the only non-P5 school that would improve the PAC or Big 12 averages is:

- BYU (56,597) [in its worst 5-year stretch for attendance in the last 50 years]

I can tell you right now that 3/4 of G5 schools pad their numbers

Got to love the atten police

(07-25-2019 01:19 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  I can tell you right now that 3/4 of G5 schools pad their numbers

Kansas City Star years ago found quite a few who are now P5 pad their numbers. (there was no P5 at the time)

(07-24-2019 05:31 PM)Wedge Wrote:  All of the attendance numbers are hooey. Some, much more than others.

There was a good article a couple of weeks ago about FBS teams close to the bottom in attendance and the hoops they jump through for the silly minimum attendance requirement. One story from the article:

Quote:Kent State received a notice of noncompliance after recording attendance of 8,999 in 2007 and 10,639 in 2008. . . .

Quote:Kent State began an internal campaign called “90K,” because Kent State would need to hit 90,000 total fans to meet the requirement. It began the up-and-down trend. According to KentWired, Kent State’s paid attendance was more than 15,000 in 2010, 2012 and 2014, and it was below 7,100 in 2009, 2011 and 2013. The school did not respond to The Athletic’s request for more recent data.

Kent State gets to 15,000 through its marketing deal with IMG. In years when it needs to hit the mark, Kent State uses IMG money to buy discounted tickets from itself. Per NCAA rules, discount tickets are required to be at least one-third of the price of the most expensive available tickets.

I mean, what's the point of even having rules?

I'm not cheering for anyone to be relegated, but FBS schools should all be in the same ballpark by some reasonable measurement. Personally, I think 15K is too low. The number should be more like 30K and it should come with very few qualifiers.

If you can't sustain 30K in actual attendance then there's no reason for that school to be at the FBS level. A lot of these schools would be better off in their own division with their own playoff. Their costs would be reduced at that.

I would also say this...if you can meet the minimum requirement then I don't think it should be required that you be invited by a conference in order to move up to the FBS level. You can be independent as long as you meet the standard. I think that's only fair.

At some point, rules need to make sense. What is currently D1 in the NCAA should really be 3 divisions.

(07-25-2019 01:30 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(07-25-2019 01:19 PM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  I can tell you right now that 3/4 of G5 schools pad their numbers

Kansas City Star years ago found quite a few who are now P5 pad their numbers. (there was no P5 at the time)

I think padding is relatively universal. The issue to me is the difference between making your program look more popular than it is and fudging the numbers to maintain access to FBS.

(07-25-2019 11:56 AM)YNot Wrote:  

(07-24-2019 05:57 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-24-2019 05:45 PM)MAcFroggy Wrote:  

(07-24-2019 05:15 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-24-2019 04:15 PM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/07/...Z8TdygOnPI

If you want to know how bogus some of this data is just check out Kansas. They've averaged under 25,000 each of the last 3 years and were under 20,000 at least once. There's literally no mathematical way they averaged 51,000 for 5 years.

Most of it looked close, but Kansas was a glaring error.

Uhhh... the report shows Kansas had an average of 26,650.

You are correct, my eyes jumped to KState's numbers when I looked away while writing them down to compare to the numbers I save every year. Still there are some glosses in these averages.

The P5 Average Attendance by Conference for 2018:
SEC: 74,191
B1G: 64,739
B12: 55,981
ACC: 48,079
PAC: 47,218

So, the only schools that would improve the average SEC or B1G numbers are:

- Texas (94,754)
- Oklahoma (86,126)
- Clemson (81,586)
- Notre Dame (79,525)
- Florida State (74,292)

No surprises there.

Also, no surprise that the only non-P5 school that would improve the PAC or Big 12 averages is:

- BYU (56,597) [in its worst 5-year stretch for attendance in the last 50 years]

This is essentially true. But there are other considerations that have to be factored in.

1. Gross Total Revenue: which indicates the athletic department of that school's ability to generate healthy business.

2. WSJ Economic Impact Evaluations: this measures the ability of other businesses to profit through the athletic offerings of a school. Consider this to be the reach a school's brand has in impacting the area around it.

3. Attendance which we've covered. This shows the relative support strength and potential travel value of a school.

4. Academics: I have it 4th but it varies in how it is stressed in various conferences.

5. Does the school considered add to everyone's payout?

Of the schools you list above: The answer would be yes on all of them with the exception of possibly Clemson due to academics with regard to the Big 10, but I should think they would have to take a serious look if they are going to consider Oklahoma. But no doubt in a content driven pay world all 5 would add.

Attendance really shows BYU way ahead of other B12 replacement candidates, not just in Football, but also Basketball. It's not even close. BYU is also within the B12 budget range.

Texas and OU are at elite attendance level and high level budget, would help any conference. As private schools TCU and Baylor do pretty well averaging 44,700, basically in a big pile of P5 schools in the 40-50,000 range (e.g., Pitt, Stanford, UNC, UK, CU, UMd, Illinois, UVa, GT, Cal, Utah, Rutgers, etc). For TCU that is significant because they budget elite level in both FB and MBB (Baylor budgets average and has the T9 controversy dogging them). KU is just dreadful in all football categories; they really are a MBB school in P5.

This does sort of tilt the picture toward BYU being the most logical replacement for OU in 2025. That would make a really minimalist realignment. The AAC and MWC untouched.

Note: FB budget, CSU, UCF, Temple, SMU and BYU all slot in the bottom quarter of P5 #52-69 (Oregon State falls short of even that range), every other G5 below that threshold. Attendance in FB and MBB show BYU way ahead (56,597 and 14,230 respectively).

2025 may be a lot less movement that we've been thinking.

(From an American standpoint: Army, Fresno State, San Diego State, Boise State are the only schools in G5 with AAC level attendance, all in the
30-33K range)

(07-24-2019 04:15 PM)Once a Knight... Wrote:  https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/07/...Z8TdygOnPI

Florida should expand the capacity to 120,000. They can do it.

The bottom P5 schools should be G5 for fan support.

Kansas 26,650 average for the past 5 years. Many G5 have more fans.
Wake Forest 27,123
Duke 27,411
Washington State 30,789
Vanderbilt 31,404
Boston College 34,035
Syracuse 35,265
Oregon State 37,168
Northwestern 37,300
Virginia 40,327
Illinois 40,823

Top 11 G5
BYU 56,597
ECU 40,361
Memphis 36,295
UCF 34,814
San Diego State 33,709
USF 32,945
Boise State 32,916
Navy 32,565
Army 32,104
Cincinnati 31,694
Fresno State 30,308


Others with more fans attending over P5.
Temple 30,108
Colorado State 28,131
Air Force 28,175

From 22,000 to 26,000.
Marshall 24,851
Southern Mississippi 24,597
UTSA 24,230
UConn. 24,748
Hawaii 25,027


FBS schools that failed the 15,000 requirement.

FIU 14,821
UAB 14,501
Charlotte 13,139
New Mexico State 14,249
UMass. 12,562
Eastern Michigan 13,653
Kent State 12,601
Northern Illinois 12,403
Ball State 9067
San Jose State 14,852
Georgia State 14,580
La.-Monroe 13,477
Coastal Carolina 10,306

P5 are in denial about some of their schools. Kansas is a joke as a P5 program. UConn was not the weakest school in the AAC. Several G5 schools could be P5 program from their support. Some G5 schools, FCS and top D2 schools could support FBS teams as an upgrade in conference.

Let's not forget that ORGINALLY the attendance criteria existed as an exception. Schools not meeting the sports sponsorship requirements could stay in the newly created I-A by having good attendance.

In 1981 when the "OR" was changed to "AND" in a bid to get OU and UGA to drop their anti-trust lawsuit the outcome was to move some schools to I-AA and reduce the sharing of the TV rights. That is the sole reason the attendance criteria was adopted as a mandate, to hope that taking a few NCAA TV dollars from those schools would appease the Sooners.

It did not.

And every school that challenged the attendance criteria either played I-A ball in 1982 or 1983 and every season thereafter.

The attendance criteria would never survive anti-trust scrutiny and everyone knows it and thus it has never been used again to reclassify any school.

Using the attendance data herein and the undergraduate enrollment data from the Equity in Athletics reports, I was able to calculate the ratio of attendance to enrollment for all FBS schools except the service academies (which aren't required to report on EIA). The results aren't surprising. The same disparity between P5 and G5 exists in the measure of the ardor of support as it does in raw attendance and financial support.

The results by conference:

Conf.....Attendance...Enrollment...Ratio

SEC.........76,911...........23,348.........3.29
ACC.........48,820...........15,665.........3.12
B12.........57,245...........20,766.........2.76
B1G.........65,726...........29,834.........2.20
PAC.........50,125...........23,729.........2.11
AAC.........29,615...........18,794.........1.58
MWC........23,880...........17,115.........1.40
SUN.........17,641...........13,171.........1.34
USA.........19,122...........14,737.........1.30
MAC.........15,698...........15,496.........1.01

The 10 individual schools with the highest (best) ratios are:

Notre Dame...9.35
Stanford........6.44
Tulsa.............5.89
Miami (FL).....5.50
Wake Forest...5.38
TCU..............5.12
Rice..............5.07
Tennessee.....4.69
Vanderbilt......4.62
Nebraska.......4.61

The 10 lowest ratios:

Fla Int'l..........0.57
UMass............0.58
Ball State.......0.60
Texas State....0.62
Liberty...........0.63
Charlotte........0.64
San Jose St.....0.64
Kent State......0.67
Georgia St......0.74
North Texas....0.77

(07-26-2019 12:02 PM)ken d Wrote:  Using the attendance data herein and the undergraduate enrollment data from the Equity in Athletics reports, I was able to calculate the ratio of attendance to enrollment for all FBS schools except the service academies (which aren't required to report on EIA). The results aren't surprising. The same disparity between P5 and G5 exists in the measure of the ardor of support as it does in raw attendance and financial support.

The results by conference:

Conf.....Attendance...Enrollment...Ratio

SEC.........76,911...........23,348.........3.29
ACC.........48,820...........15,665.........3.12
B12.........57,245...........20,766.........2.76
B1G.........65,726...........29,834.........2.20
PAC.........50,125...........23,729.........2.11
AAC.........29,615...........18,794.........1.58
MWC........23,880...........17,115.........1.40
SUN.........17,641...........13,171.........1.34
USA.........19,122...........14,737.........1.30
MAC.........15,698...........15,496.........1.01

The 10 individual schools with the highest (best) ratios are:

Notre Dame...9.35
Stanford........6.44
Tulsa.............5.89
Miami (FL).....5.50
Wake Forest...5.38
TCU..............5.12
Rice..............5.07
Tennessee.....4.69
Vanderbilt......4.62
Nebraska.......4.61

The 10 lowest ratios:

Fla Int'l..........0.57
UMass............0.58
Ball State.......0.60
Texas State....0.62
Liberty...........0.63
Charlotte........0.64
San Jose St.....0.64
Kent State......0.67
Georgia St......0.74
North Texas....0.77

Using the five year attendance data in linked article and enrollment numbers in wikipedia (varied citations for the three), service academies ratios are good for #2-4 spots
Army......7.48
Navy......7.12
Air Force 6.64

If a team that averages 12000 in attendance can beat a team that averages 50000, in their home stadium, what difference does it make what the attendance is?