(07-23-2019 09:06 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(07-23-2019 08:21 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m going to go out on a limb and say even if Texas doesn’t leave the Big 12 in 2025 they are at least going to put on a song and dance and then exact concessions from their conference mates for the privilege of their company. Do you think Texas could be so bold as to demand their T1 rights (possibly ceding the T3 rights in a very uneven swap)?

Would the Big 12 have any choice but to agree? Could another big player be convinced to join if they got to keep T1 rights?

Yes. They could choose to tell Texas to stick it where the sun don't shine. A Big 12 with Oklahoma but without Texas would do just fine. In that scenario, UT needs the B12 more than the other way around.

You read the scenario incorrectly. Oklahoma leaving starts the question. And I am fully convinced Oklahoma will be a member of the B1G or SEC in 2025, there is no concession the B12 can make to keep them.

Form this reality, the B12 would be in no position to deny Texas anything. Quite Likely to remain Texas would demand

1) A bigger slice of the Tier-1/2 share for themselves
2) No expansion, stay at 9 schools, to allow Texas to schedule another high end power school.
3) uneven distributions

What choice would the rest have but to accept these demands? Texas can walk off to the ACC (possibly taking TCU with them) or join Oklahoma in the B1G or SEC if they don't get what they want.

Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas Tech, Iowa State and West Virginia do not have much bargaining power

Now I do think Texas wants to stay the big kahuna almost at any cost, so staying even without OU or going to the ACC might well outweigh the B1G and SEC offers, especially given they have 6 years of protection with the LHN still remaining, and the payments will be almost $19M a year those final years -- they can afford a tier 1&2 deal that is $20-25M short of SEC/B1G level.

But to premise that OU is staying is the hard one to buy into.

(07-24-2019 06:55 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(07-23-2019 09:06 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(07-23-2019 08:21 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I’m going to go out on a limb and say even if Texas doesn’t leave the Big 12 in 2025 they are at least going to put on a song and dance and then exact concessions from their conference mates for the privilege of their company. Do you think Texas could be so bold as to demand their T1 rights (possibly ceding the T3 rights in a very uneven swap)?

Would the Big 12 have any choice but to agree? Could another big player be convinced to join if they got to keep T1 rights?

Yes. They could choose to tell Texas to stick it where the sun don't shine. A Big 12 with Oklahoma but without Texas would do just fine. In that scenario, UT needs the B12 more than the other way around.

You read the scenario incorrectly. Oklahoma leaving starts the question. And I am fully convinced Oklahoma will be a member of the B1G or SEC in 2025, there is no concession the B12 can make to keep them.

Form this reality, the B12 would be in no position to deny Texas anything. Quite Likely to remain Texas would demand

1) A bigger slice of the Tier-1/2 share for themselves
2) No expansion, stay at 9 schools, to allow Texas to schedule another high end power school.
3) uneven distributions

What choice would the rest have but to accept these demands? Texas can walk off to the ACC (possibly taking TCU with them) or join Oklahoma in the B1G or SEC if they don't get what they want.

Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas Tech, Iowa State and West Virginia do not have much bargaining power

Now I do think Texas wants to stay the big kahuna almost at any cost, so staying even without OU or going to the ACC might well outweigh the B1G and SEC offers, especially given they have 6 years of protection with the LHN still remaining, and the payments will be almost $19M a year those final years -- they can afford a tier 1&2 deal that is $20-25M short of SEC/B1G level.

But to premise that OU is staying is the hard one to buy into.

I agree with your premise about OU but two questions come to mind.
1) If OU leaves and its only UT and and the 8 schools you mentioned left in the Big 12, wouldn’t the league want to add another school for basketball purposes? Each school currently plays home-and-home with everyone else so there are 18 conference games. Dropping to 9 teams would mean a 16 game conference slate when other conferences are trending towards 20 games. Adding a Cincy or Houston or Memphis would add a good hoops school and if they wanted to drop to 8 football games they could do it by splitting into 5 team divisions and skipping one of the five teams in the other division each year.

2) If OU goes to the B1G and both UT and OSU are left behind, and OU has to play 9 B1G games a season, is it possible that they won’t play the Red River Rivalry and Bedlam every year? Keeping both would leave OU with 11 P5 games each year and only one open slot for intersectional power games against the ACC, SEC, PAC-12 or payday games verses a G5 team each year.

Oklahoma will take someone with them—either Kansas or Oklahoma St

The Texas dominated Big 12 either sticks with 8 members and 7 conference games—giving the Horns 2 more opportunities for big OOC opponents, or pull from the pool of Houston, Cincy, UCF, USF, and BYU.

As far as the playoff goes, champs of the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC ought to all get in. The last spot will be the Big 12, PAC 12, or ND

Prediction: After OU leaves the Big 12, UT disbands the conference and re-forms the SWC with TCU, Tech, Baylor, Houston, SMU, and Rice so all their games can be played in Texas. ;P

(07-24-2019 08:56 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Prediction: After OU leaves the Big 12, UT disbands the conference and re-forms the SWC with TCU, Tech, Baylor, Houston, SMU, and Rice so all their games can be played in Texas. ;P

I think you’re being cheeky here but I could very well seeing them demand that if expansion occurs it be Houston and SMU.

It’s more likely that they stay small and seek out more high profile OOC games since the conference no longer has the cache it once did

(07-24-2019 08:56 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Prediction: After OU leaves the Big 12, UT disbands the conference and re-forms the SWC with TCU, Tech, Baylor, Houston, SMU, and Rice so all their games can be played in Texas. ;P

Then Kansas, Kansas st, Iowa St, and WV add Cincinnati, UCF, USF, and Memphis from the AAC plus Colorado State, Boise St, BYU, and another MWC school (Air Force or Wyoming maybe) to form a “best of the rest” conference

(07-24-2019 09:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(07-24-2019 08:56 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Prediction: After OU leaves the Big 12, UT disbands the conference and re-forms the SWC with TCU, Tech, Baylor, Houston, SMU, and Rice so all their games can be played in Texas. ;P

I think you’re being cheeky here but I could very well seeing them demand that if expansion occurs it be Houston and SMU.

It’s more likely that they stay small and seek out more high profile OOC games since the conference no longer has the cache it once did

Cheeky? Me?

Future UT schedule:

vs. Lamar
vs. UTEP
vs. UTSA
vs. Texas State
vs. North Texas
at TCU
vs. Houston
at Texas Tech
vs. SMU
at Baylor
vs. Rice
Oklahoma (Dallas)

(07-25-2019 04:24 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(07-24-2019 09:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(07-24-2019 08:56 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Prediction: After OU leaves the Big 12, UT disbands the conference and re-forms the SWC with TCU, Tech, Baylor, Houston, SMU, and Rice so all their games can be played in Texas. ;P

I think you’re being cheeky here but I could very well seeing them demand that if expansion occurs it be Houston and SMU.

It’s more likely that they stay small and seek out more high profile OOC games since the conference no longer has the cache it once did

Cheeky? Me?

Future UT schedule:

vs. Lamar
vs. UTEP
vs. UTSA
vs. Texas State
vs. North Texas
at TCU
vs. Houston
at Texas Tech
vs. SMU
at Baylor
vs. Rice
Oklahoma (Dallas)

That’s way too many away games for the Longhorns

Independence.

The AAC would be a valid spot for an independent Texas to place its Olympic sports. Already 6 teams within reasonable travel distance for Olympic sports. Grab a 4-game football scheduling agreement and bowl affiliation.

The independence schedule could feature Oklahoma in Dallas, Notre Dame and BYU often, a game or two against SEC and B1G opponents, plus the 4-game AAC affiliation, ..that's a solid base from which Texas could fill its independent schedule and better control its media value. Throw in a couple of home games against the likes of UTEP, UTSA, Rice, etc. Done.

(07-25-2019 05:13 PM)YNot Wrote:  Independence.

The AAC would be a valid spot for an independent Texas to place its Olympic sports. Already 6 teams within reasonable travel distance for Olympic sports. Grab a 4-game football scheduling agreement and bowl affiliation.

The independence schedule could feature Oklahoma in Dallas, Notre Dame and BYU often, a game or two against SEC and B1G opponents, plus the 4-game AAC affiliation, ..that's a solid base from which Texas could fill its independent schedule and better control its media value. Throw in a couple of home games against the likes of UTEP, UTSA, Rice, etc. Done.

If Texas takes fb independent they will leave the rest of their sports in the B12.