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Some early WAC MBB Predictions
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SoCalBobcat78 Online
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Post: #21
RE: Some early WAC MBB Predictions
(07-25-2019 01:06 PM)Trod0 Wrote:  
(07-25-2019 11:52 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(07-23-2019 04:49 PM)Trod0 Wrote:  Move Cal Baptist to #5 and move GCU, SU & UVU up in order. I’m agreeing that Cal can be pretty legit but to be second best you have to beat second best. The ? silver medal belongs to GCU until someone constantly proves otherwise

CBU returns last season's leading scorer in the WAC, Milan Acquaah, at 19.2 per game. They return the leading rebounder in the WAC, De'jon Davis, at 9.0 rebounds per game. He also averaged 10 points per game. They return the #2 shot blocker in the WAC, Zach Pirog, at 1.7 per game in just 14.4 minutes per game. Guard Ty Rowell returns off the bench as one of the better three point shooters in the WAC at 40%.

They are losing guard Jordan Heading to graduation (15.3 points per game) but add graduate transfer 6'1" guard Brandon Boyd from Idaho State. Boyd averaged 14.2 points and 3.6 assists per game. Boyd was honorable mention All-Big Sky in 2019. Ferron Flavors will be on the floor after transferring from Fairfield. The 6'4" guard averaged 12.3 points a game at Fairfield in 2017-2018, 2nd best on the team.

CBU can challenge for a regular season title with this lineup. NMSU is the favorite but if CBU can stay relatively healthy, they will be tough. GCU returns Frayer, Lever and Carlos Johnson, so I expect them to have a very good team as well. GCU needs to find a way to beat NMSU. They are 2-12 with six straight losses. CBU split with NMSU in their first season at D1. I don't think it should be assumed that GCU will be the 2nd best team in the WAC this season. CBU and possibly Seattle will have something to say about that.

You return a decent little core but add virtually no one. A 6’1 Guard from Idaho St. really “Idaho St”? Another guy from Fairfield? Who and where is Fairfield?? Yes you were the only team to beat us in the WAC, but even Chi St has done that. After you beat us you did virtually nothing, finishing 7-9 and 6th place on a 9 team conference. Yes you guys did better than I thought a first year school would do but you ain’t making no jump from 6th to 2nd with your recruiting. Taking 2nd place is going to require depth and consistency, which you guys don’t have. Good luck next season, I’ll keep you guys 5th on my prediction, which honestly isn’t bad and is showing improvement.

You probably need to learn a little about Brandon Boyd:

https://www.idahostatejournal.com/member...485e9.html

He chose CBU over Arkansas, Washington State and TCU. He is an LA native. "Boyd also exits the program ranked ninth in career steals (113), sixth in 3-pointers attempted (391), seventh in 3-pointers made (135) and seventh in free-throw percentage (81.7). Boyd’s new team will get a player that has logged 94 career games (60 starts) and averages 13.2 ppg while shooting 42.6 percent from the floor and 34.5 percent from the arc."

In two games against UVU , Boyd scored 28 points and had four steals in one game and 16 points and five assists in the other game. This season, he scored 28 against Pacific, 21 against Pepperdine and 15 points and seven assists against Gonzaga. He can play. The reason he ended up at Idaho State was because no one other than ISU offered him a D1 scholarship out of high school.

Fairfield is a D1 school in the Metro Atlantic Conference. They are located in Fairfield, Connecticut. They have been to the NCAA tournament three times. They played and lost to Seattle this past season, 83-80 in Seattle.

Flavors only played one season at Fairfield. He played well in post-season tourney, scoring 21 points and grabbing 11 rebounds to lead Fairfield to victory in the semi-final game. Fairfield lost in the championship to Iona. CBU coach Rick Croy likes to go to three guard lineups and Flavors is a good shooter and rebounder that will fit in well with that playing style.

I don't see how the guy that led the WAC in scoring, the guy that led the WAC in rebounding and the best per minute shot blocker in the WAC, only represent "a decent core." This group has a good roster, a better roster than GCU had in their second season at the D1 level. There is a reason CBU is picked at #2 in the WAC.
(This post was last modified: 07-26-2019 11:20 PM by SoCalBobcat78.)
07-26-2019 11:19 PM
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Vaqueronation Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Some early WAC MBB Predictions
(07-26-2019 11:19 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(07-25-2019 01:06 PM)Trod0 Wrote:  
(07-25-2019 11:52 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(07-23-2019 04:49 PM)Trod0 Wrote:  Move Cal Baptist to #5 and move GCU, SU & UVU up in order. I’m agreeing that Cal can be pretty legit but to be second best you have to beat second best. The ? silver medal belongs to GCU until someone constantly proves otherwise

CBU returns last season's leading scorer in the WAC, Milan Acquaah, at 19.2 per game. They return the leading rebounder in the WAC, De'jon Davis, at 9.0 rebounds per game. He also averaged 10 points per game. They return the #2 shot blocker in the WAC, Zach Pirog, at 1.7 per game in just 14.4 minutes per game. Guard Ty Rowell returns off the bench as one of the better three point shooters in the WAC at 40%.

They are losing guard Jordan Heading to graduation (15.3 points per game) but add graduate transfer 6'1" guard Brandon Boyd from Idaho State. Boyd averaged 14.2 points and 3.6 assists per game. Boyd was honorable mention All-Big Sky in 2019. Ferron Flavors will be on the floor after transferring from Fairfield. The 6'4" guard averaged 12.3 points a game at Fairfield in 2017-2018, 2nd best on the team.

CBU can challenge for a regular season title with this lineup. NMSU is the favorite but if CBU can stay relatively healthy, they will be tough. GCU returns Frayer, Lever and Carlos Johnson, so I expect them to have a very good team as well. GCU needs to find a way to beat NMSU. They are 2-12 with six straight losses. CBU split with NMSU in their first season at D1. I don't think it should be assumed that GCU will be the 2nd best team in the WAC this season. CBU and possibly Seattle will have something to say about that.

You return a decent little core but add virtually no one. A 6’1 Guard from Idaho St. really “Idaho St”? Another guy from Fairfield? Who and where is Fairfield?? Yes you were the only team to beat us in the WAC, but even Chi St has done that. After you beat us you did virtually nothing, finishing 7-9 and 6th place on a 9 team conference. Yes you guys did better than I thought a first year school would do but you ain’t making no jump from 6th to 2nd with your recruiting. Taking 2nd place is going to require depth and consistency, which you guys don’t have. Good luck next season, I’ll keep you guys 5th on my prediction, which honestly isn’t bad and is showing improvement.

You probably need to learn a little about Brandon Boyd:

https://www.idahostatejournal.com/member...485e9.html

He chose CBU over Arkansas, Washington State and TCU. He is an LA native. "Boyd also exits the program ranked ninth in career steals (113), sixth in 3-pointers attempted (391), seventh in 3-pointers made (135) and seventh in free-throw percentage (81.7). Boyd’s new team will get a player that has logged 94 career games (60 starts) and averages 13.2 ppg while shooting 42.6 percent from the floor and 34.5 percent from the arc."

In two games against UVU , Boyd scored 28 points and had four steals in one game and 16 points and five assists in the other game. This season, he scored 28 against Pacific, 21 against Pepperdine and 15 points and seven assists against Gonzaga. He can play. The reason he ended up at Idaho State was because no one other than ISU offered him a D1 scholarship out of high school.

Fairfield is a D1 school in the Metro Atlantic Conference. They are located in Fairfield, Connecticut. They have been to the NCAA tournament three times. They played and lost to Seattle this past season, 83-80 in Seattle.

Flavors only played one season at Fairfield. He played well in post-season tourney, scoring 21 points and grabbing 11 rebounds to lead Fairfield to victory in the semi-final game. Fairfield lost in the championship to Iona. CBU coach Rick Croy likes to go to three guard lineups and Flavors is a good shooter and rebounder that will fit in well with that playing style.

I don't see how the guy that led the WAC in scoring, the guy that led the WAC in rebounding and the best per minute shot blocker in the WAC, only represent "a decent core." This group has a good roster, a better roster than GCU had in their second season at the D1 level. There is a reason CBU is picked at #2 in the WAC.

Well officially no one has ranked CBU anywhere.
07-27-2019 12:51 AM
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Trod0 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Some early WAC MBB Predictions
(07-26-2019 11:19 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  I don't see how the guy that led the WAC in scoring, the guy that led the WAC in rebounding and the best per minute shot blocker in the WAC, only represent "a decent core." This group has a good roster, a better roster than GCU had in their second season at the D1 level. There is a reason CBU is picked at #2 in the WAC.

Yes I say decent because you had those guys last year plus a guy averaging over 15ppg and still managed a losing record. With those kind of stats and finishing with a losing record tells me you guys have individuals, lack of depth, or don’t play defense. I’d agree you do have a better roster this year than GCU had their second year but that’s not enough.

The more I look at Vaqueronation’s prediction the more I agree with it.

1. Nmsu
2. Gcu

3. Seattle (3-5 will either be tied or one game apart)
4. Utrgv
5. Cal Bapt
6. Uvu
7 .Csub
8 .Chi st
9. Umkc
07-27-2019 08:31 AM
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Lopes87 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Some early WAC MBB Predictions
CBU will be just fine but in their 2nd year they have 4 non D1 opponents which is fine but GCU had 2 that counted for their overall record.

CBU is in a tough WAC than when GCU joined.

I'd still take Russell and Braun over Milan and Boyd.

GCU went 17-15, 8-6 in the WAC in their 2nd season.
I think CBU wins 15/16 games this next year due to league play.
07-27-2019 01:24 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Online
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Post: #25
RE: Some early WAC MBB Predictions
(07-27-2019 08:31 AM)Trod0 Wrote:  
(07-26-2019 11:19 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  I don't see how the guy that led the WAC in scoring, the guy that led the WAC in rebounding and the best per minute shot blocker in the WAC, only represent "a decent core." This group has a good roster, a better roster than GCU had in their second season at the D1 level. There is a reason CBU is picked at #2 in the WAC.

Yes I say decent because you had those guys last year plus a guy averaging over 15ppg and still managed a losing record. With those kind of stats and finishing with a losing record tells me you guys have individuals, lack of depth, or don’t play defense. I’d agree you do have a better roster this year than GCU had their second year but that’s not enough.

They actually had a winning record for the season at 16-15, the best record for a first year D1 school ever. They were 7-9 in conference play, their first season at the D1 level. Coach Croy had them competing every night. That is all you can ask for. They were 4-6 in games decided by three points or less. That does not include an eight point triple OT loss on the road. They loss by one point at home to UVU and two points at home to Seattle. If they just win those two games, they are 9-7 in conference.

The first season was a learning experience for them. They had a four point loss to CSUB at home, 88-84, where the defense and rebounding did not match the toughness CSUB brought. CSUB won the boards 45-30 in that game. In the rematch in Bakersfield, CBU won 72-58, out rebounding CSUB by four. They played better defense and matched the toughness. Same thing with UTRGV. Two nights after upsetting NMSU, they led UTRGV by 16 in the 2nd half at home. UTRGV took it to them down the stretch and won 81-74. CBU allowed 53 points in the 2nd half after allowing only 28 points in the first half. CBU won the return game at UTRGV 82-79 in OT, this time playing better defensively.

I felt they were not tough enough last season, they needed to play consistently better defense. I think the addition of Flavors and Boyd will help. Boyd was All-state in football, so he will bring the toughness. As KTodd pointed out, they get back 6'7" forward Bul Kuol, who missed most of last season with injuries. Kuol started seven games last season and as KTodd noted, is an excellent defender. He also shot 40% on threes last season before getting injured.

As far as depth goes, NMSU was the only team in the WAC with real depth. Every other team was trying to win with their starters and hoping that got it done. CBU will be in better shape this season, with the unknown a couple of promising juco transfers. So we will see if your prediction of 5th place for CBU works out.
07-27-2019 05:21 PM
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Trod0 Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Some early WAC MBB Predictions
(07-27-2019 05:21 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(07-27-2019 08:31 AM)Trod0 Wrote:  
(07-26-2019 11:19 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  I don't see how the guy that led the WAC in scoring, the guy that led the WAC in rebounding and the best per minute shot blocker in the WAC, only represent "a decent core." This group has a good roster, a better roster than GCU had in their second season at the D1 level. There is a reason CBU is picked at #2 in the WAC.

Yes I say decent because you had those guys last year plus a guy averaging over 15ppg and still managed a losing record. With those kind of stats and finishing with a losing record tells me you guys have individuals, lack of depth, or don’t play defense. I’d agree you do have a better roster this year than GCU had their second year but that’s not enough.

They actually had a winning record for the season at 16-15, the best record for a first year D1 school ever. They were 7-9 in conference play, their first season at the D1 level. Coach Croy had them competing every night. That is all you can ask for. They were 4-6 in games decided by three points or less. That does not include an eight point triple OT loss on the road. They loss by one point at home to UVU and two points at home to Seattle. If they just win those two games, they are 9-7 in conference.

The first season was a learning experience for them. They had a four point loss to CSUB at home, 88-84, where the defense and rebounding did not match the toughness CSUB brought. CSUB won the boards 45-30 in that game. In the rematch in Bakersfield, CBU won 72-58, out rebounding CSUB by four. They played better defense and matched the toughness. Same thing with UTRGV. Two nights after upsetting NMSU, they led UTRGV by 16 in the 2nd half at home. UTRGV took it to them down the stretch and won 81-74. CBU allowed 53 points in the 2nd half after allowing only 28 points in the first half. CBU won the return game at UTRGV 82-79 in OT, this time playing better defensively.

I felt they were not tough enough last season, they needed to play consistently better defense. I think the addition of Flavors and Boyd will help. Boyd was All-state in football, so he will bring the toughness. As KTodd pointed out, they get back 6'7" forward Bul Kuol, who missed most of last season with injuries. Kuol started seven games last season and as KTodd noted, is an excellent defender. He also shot 40% on threes last season before getting injured.

As far as depth goes, NMSU was the only team in the WAC with real depth. Every other team was trying to win with their starters and hoping that got it done. CBU will be in better shape this season, with the unknown a couple of promising juco transfers. So we will see if your prediction of 5th place for CBU works out.

In your honest opinion, where do you have them placing at the end of the year? As far as the losing record I was talking about WAC play since were talking about WAC predictions.
(This post was last modified: 07-27-2019 06:54 PM by Trod0.)
07-27-2019 06:52 PM
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NMSUPistolPete Offline
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RE: Some early WAC MBB Predictions
Obviously, I predict NMSU to win the WAC next season. After NMSU, I think the WAC is a three horse race for second place; Grand Canyon, Cal Baptist, and Seattle U. UTRGV could also join this group but they have question marks in the paint.

I'm not sure about the WAC rankings but I do see tiers...

NMSU is on the top tier. GCU, CBU, and Seattle are on the second tier. UVU, CSUB, and UTRGV are on the third tier. And, UMKC and Chicago State are on the four tier. I'm still unclear on the order of finish or how each tier will play out.

I do think this season's version of the WAC will be a guard driven conference. Guard play will dictate the order of finish; as there are not really that many dominant big men in the WAC.
07-28-2019 06:55 AM
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dancingNMSUaggie Offline
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RE: Some early WAC MBB Predictions
I think Ivan for NMSU is going to be dominant along with Johnny McCants.
07-28-2019 08:54 AM
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Country_Wisdom_359 Online
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RE: Some early WAC MBB Predictions
Ugh... McCants... last year’s last second behind-halfcourt heave that defied odds. That one still stings.
07-28-2019 09:41 AM
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SoCalBobcat78 Online
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RE: Some early WAC MBB Predictions
(07-27-2019 06:52 PM)Trod0 Wrote:  In your honest opinion, where do you have them placing at the end of the year? As far as the losing record I was talking about WAC play since were talking about WAC predictions.

Obviously, the favorite is NMSU. After that, there are questions about different schools. GCU was a disappointment last season. They ended up being a paper tiger. I thought Frayer and Lever took steps backward. Carlos Johnson was very impressive. At this point, I think they are the third or fourth in the WAC only because I don't trust them. I am not sure if Majerle is the right coach there. If Chris Jans was the head coach at GCU, then I would go with GCU to win the conference.

Seattle had a rash of injuries last season. I would like to see what they could do if they could stay healthy. I think Jim Hayford is an excellent offensive coach and I think that team could be anywhere from 2nd to 4th in the WAC. There is a lot of talent in the Seattle area and Hayford is recruiting well on the west coast, particularly in California.

CBU will be bigger and more athletic next season with the players coming in. They led the conference in scoring, but they need to get better defensively. Consistently better defense would translate to more fast break baskets. The big question is, will they go 7-deep or 10-deep on their roster? If they can establish a deeper roster, I think they are the 2nd best team in the conference. In the long run, with the talent in Southern California, with their talent pipeline to Australia, with an excellent head coach in Croy and with the school's commitment to athletics, they will be a constant presence among the best schools in the WAC.

I will pick them for 2nd, but they could end up 4th. I don't expect UTRGV, UVU or CSUB to be easy games, but I don't think they have the talent to stay with the top four. UMKC and Chicago State have hired good coaches and they just need time to recruit and develop their talent.
07-28-2019 12:21 PM
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RoosHouse Offline
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RE: Some early WAC MBB Predictions
I hate to state the obvious but NMSU Kenpom adjem was +13 and CBU was -2 and UMKC was -6. Utah Valley the 2nd place team was +6. NMSU was twice as good as the second place team last year farther away in distance than between CBU/UTRGV and UMKC.
07-28-2019 01:32 PM
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RoosHouse Offline
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RE: Some early WAC MBB Predictions
IF NMSU stays +13 they are going to go undefeated in the league. Chicago ST was -28 it will take one hell of a recruiting class for that to improve 20 points this season and not finish last.
(This post was last modified: 07-28-2019 01:36 PM by RoosHouse.)
07-28-2019 01:33 PM
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Lopes87 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Some early WAC MBB Predictions
(07-28-2019 12:21 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(07-27-2019 06:52 PM)Trod0 Wrote:  In your honest opinion, where do you have them placing at the end of the year? As far as the losing record I was talking about WAC play since were talking about WAC predictions.

Obviously, the favorite is NMSU. After that, there are questions about different schools. GCU was a disappointment last season. They ended up being a paper tiger. I thought Frayer and Lever took steps backward. Carlos Johnson was very impressive. At this point, I think they are the third or fourth in the WAC only because I don't trust them. I am not sure if Majerle is the right coach there. If Chris Jans was the head coach at GCU, then I would go with GCU to win the conference.

Seattle had a rash of injuries last season. I would like to see what they could do if they could stay healthy. I think Jim Hayford is an excellent offensive coach and I think that team could be anywhere from 2nd to 4th in the WAC. There is a lot of talent in the Seattle area and Hayford is recruiting well on the west coast, particularly in California.

CBU will be bigger and more athletic next season with the players coming in. They led the conference in scoring, but they need to get better defensively. Consistently better defense would translate to more fast break baskets. The big question is, will they go 7-deep or 10-deep on their roster? If they can establish a deeper roster, I think they are the 2nd best team in the conference. In the long run, with the talent in Southern California, with their talent pipeline to Australia, with an excellent head coach in Croy and with the school's commitment to athletics, they will be a constant presence among the best schools in the WAC.

I will pick them for 2nd, but they could end up 4th. I don't expect UTRGV, UVU or CSUB to be easy games, but I don't think they have the talent to stay with the top four. UMKC and Chicago State have hired good coaches and they just need time to recruit and develop their talent.

Lever stats wise was a tad better than his freshman year.
Frayer on the other hand did take a step back and it was noticeable.

Hayford has done a great job at SU
Croy has done a good job but needs to help Milan out b/c the strategy for teams after a while forcing the ball out of his hand as much as possible and that stagnated CBU offense at times. Milan had his issues vs GCU as well. Milan is a good player and with Boyd coming in that should help.

NMST

GCU SU CBU

UVU UTRGV Bake

ChicagoSt UMKC

Is how I see it in tiers
07-28-2019 01:52 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Online
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Post: #34
RE: Some early WAC MBB Predictions
(07-28-2019 01:52 PM)Lopes87 Wrote:  
(07-28-2019 12:21 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(07-27-2019 06:52 PM)Trod0 Wrote:  In your honest opinion, where do you have them placing at the end of the year? As far as the losing record I was talking about WAC play since were talking about WAC predictions.

Obviously, the favorite is NMSU. After that, there are questions about different schools. GCU was a disappointment last season. They ended up being a paper tiger. I thought Frayer and Lever took steps backward. Carlos Johnson was very impressive. At this point, I think they are the third or fourth in the WAC only because I don't trust them. I am not sure if Majerle is the right coach there. If Chris Jans was the head coach at GCU, then I would go with GCU to win the conference.

Seattle had a rash of injuries last season. I would like to see what they could do if they could stay healthy. I think Jim Hayford is an excellent offensive coach and I think that team could be anywhere from 2nd to 4th in the WAC. There is a lot of talent in the Seattle area and Hayford is recruiting well on the west coast, particularly in California.

CBU will be bigger and more athletic next season with the players coming in. They led the conference in scoring, but they need to get better defensively. Consistently better defense would translate to more fast break baskets. The big question is, will they go 7-deep or 10-deep on their roster? If they can establish a deeper roster, I think they are the 2nd best team in the conference. In the long run, with the talent in Southern California, with their talent pipeline to Australia, with an excellent head coach in Croy and with the school's commitment to athletics, they will be a constant presence among the best schools in the WAC.

I will pick them for 2nd, but they could end up 4th. I don't expect UTRGV, UVU or CSUB to be easy games, but I don't think they have the talent to stay with the top four. UMKC and Chicago State have hired good coaches and they just need time to recruit and develop their talent.

Lever stats wise was a tad better than his freshman year.
Frayer on the other hand did take a step back and it was noticeable.

Hayford has done a great job at SU
Croy has done a good job but needs to help Milan out b/c the strategy for teams after a while forcing the ball out of his hand as much as possible and that stagnated CBU offense at times. Milan had his issues vs GCU as well. Milan is a good player and with Boyd coming in that should help.

NMST

GCU SU CBU

UVU UTRGV Bake

ChicagoSt UMKC

Is how I see it in tiers

Lever regressed badly. He was All-WAC first team in the 2017-2018 season. In his last sixteen games that season, he scored 20 points or more nine times. This season, he scored 20 or more once in the last 21 games. He was in single digits in 10 of his last 19 games. He did not block a shot in the last 28 games and only had two for the entire season. He had 14 blocks in his freshman season, a number that should be double that with his size.

His season high for rebounds was 10 and he did that once. He did not have a double figure rebound game in the last 27 games. He was not scoring, he was not rebounding, he was not blocking shots. He is 6'10" and 230 pounds. What happened to him?
07-28-2019 04:20 PM
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Lopes87 Offline
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RE: Some early WAC MBB Predictions
Yet his season averages outside of blocks per game when up with more minutes on the court.....

Being consistent is another thing to discus but his stats improved only if it was very slightly.
07-28-2019 05:05 PM
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NMSUPistolPete Offline
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RE: Some early WAC MBB Predictions
(07-28-2019 04:20 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(07-28-2019 01:52 PM)Lopes87 Wrote:  
(07-28-2019 12:21 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(07-27-2019 06:52 PM)Trod0 Wrote:  

Obviously, the favorite is NMSU... GCU was a disappointment last season. They ended up being a paper tiger. I thought Frayer and Lever took steps backward.... I am not sure if Majerle is the right coach there...

CBU will be bigger and more athletic next season with the players coming in. They led the conference in scoring, but they need to get better defensively. Consistently better defense would translate to more fast break baskets. The big question is, will they go 7-deep or 10-deep on their roster? If they can establish a deeper roster, I think they are the 2nd best team in the conference. In the long run, with the talent in Southern California, with their talent pipeline to Australia, with an excellent head coach in Croy and with the school's commitment to athletics, they will be a constant presence among the best schools in the WAC.

I will pick them for 2nd, but they could end up 4th....

Lever stats wise was a tad better than his freshman year.
Frayer on the other hand did take a step back and it was noticeable.

Croy has done a good job but needs to help Milan out b/c the strategy for teams after a while forcing the ball out of his hand as much as possible and that stagnated CBU offense at times. Milan had his issues vs GCU as well. Milan is a good player and with Boyd coming in that should help.

NMST

GCU SU CBU

UVU UTRGV Bake

ChicagoSt UMKC

Is how I see it in tiers

Lever regressed badly. He was All-WAC first team in the 2017-2018 season. In his last sixteen games that season, he scored 20 points or more nine times. This season, he scored 20 or more once in the last 21 games. He was in single digits in 10 of his last 19 games. He did not block a shot in the last 28 games and only had two for the entire season. He had 14 blocks in his freshman season, a number that should be double that with his size.

His season high for rebounds was 10 and he did that once. He did not have a double figure rebound game in the last 27 games. He was not scoring, he was not rebounding, he was not blocking shots. He is 6'10" and 230 pounds. What happened to him?

Players always have tendencies. I think Lever was impressive because he was new. Opposing coaches simply didn't know all his strengths and weaknesses. In his second year, opposing coaches started to get a good blueprint on how to stifle Lever. Lever is not a great rebounder or on-ball defender. He lacks lateral quickness and has only average hops. Lever real strength is his shooting touch around the rim and 3-point range for his size. But if an opposing coach can put a rangy (long) defender on Lever or make Lever "really" work on defense (move his feet), it take Lever's legs away and turns him into just a speed bump for players driving into the paint. Lever needs to work on his stamina and physical strength in this off-season; if he wants to reestablish his dominance next season. Right now, Ivan Aurrecoechea can run circles around Lever. Aurrecoechea might not have Lever's perimeter game but he has much better low post footwork to get the ball in hole around the rim.

As for Cal Baptist, I think they have a really solid guard corp and serviceable big men. Acquaah is arguably the best guard in the WAC; although Carlos Johnson and Trevelin Queen made major strides toward the end of last season. SO, we will see how this season plays out for WAC POTY. I think Croy added three solid guards...

Kajaun Hale (5'10, 170-lbs, Soph.) - averaged 13.6 ppg, 7.5 apg as a freshman at Walters State CC. Hale has three years of eligibility. Hale was All-TCCAA 1st Team while at Walters State CC.

Brandon Boyd (6'1, 180-lbs, Grad.) - averaged 14.2 pp, 3.6 apg at Idaho State. Boyd earned All-Big Sky Honorable Mention last season.

Ferron Flavors (6'3, 190-lbs, Jr.) - averaged 12.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg at Fairfield two seasons ago in the MAAC. Flavors' most impressive stat is he made 95 threes that season.

Add those three guards to Milan Acquaah and Ty Rowell and CBU has a pretty good guard group. Not to mention the incoming Aussie freshmen.
07-28-2019 06:00 PM
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gleadley Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Some early WAC MBB Predictions
(07-28-2019 04:20 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(07-28-2019 01:52 PM)Lopes87 Wrote:  
(07-28-2019 12:21 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(07-27-2019 06:52 PM)Trod0 Wrote:  In your honest opinion, where do you have them placing at the end of the year? As far as the losing record I was talking about WAC play since were talking about WAC predictions.

Obviously, the favorite is NMSU. After that, there are questions about different schools. GCU was a disappointment last season. They ended up being a paper tiger. I thought Frayer and Lever took steps backward. Carlos Johnson was very impressive. At this point, I think they are the third or fourth in the WAC only because I don't trust them. I am not sure if Majerle is the right coach there. If Chris Jans was the head coach at GCU, then I would go with GCU to win the conference.

Seattle had a rash of injuries last season. I would like to see what they could do if they could stay healthy. I think Jim Hayford is an excellent offensive coach and I think that team could be anywhere from 2nd to 4th in the WAC. There is a lot of talent in the Seattle area and Hayford is recruiting well on the west coast, particularly in California.

CBU will be bigger and more athletic next season with the players coming in. They led the conference in scoring, but they need to get better defensively. Consistently better defense would translate to more fast break baskets. The big question is, will they go 7-deep or 10-deep on their roster? If they can establish a deeper roster, I think they are the 2nd best team in the conference. In the long run, with the talent in Southern California, with their talent pipeline to Australia, with an excellent head coach in Croy and with the school's commitment to athletics, they will be a constant presence among the best schools in the WAC.

I will pick them for 2nd, but they could end up 4th. I don't expect UTRGV, UVU or CSUB to be easy games, but I don't think they have the talent to stay with the top four. UMKC and Chicago State have hired good coaches and they just need time to recruit and develop their talent.

Lever stats wise was a tad better than his freshman year.
Frayer on the other hand did take a step back and it was noticeable.

Hayford has done a great job at SU
Croy has done a good job but needs to help Milan out b/c the strategy for teams after a while forcing the ball out of his hand as much as possible and that stagnated CBU offense at times. Milan had his issues vs GCU as well. Milan is a good player and with Boyd coming in that should help.

NMST

GCU SU CBU

UVU UTRGV Bake

ChicagoSt UMKC

Is how I see it in tiers

Lever regressed badly. He was All-WAC first team in the 2017-2018 season. In his last sixteen games that season, he scored 20 points or more nine times. This season, he scored 20 or more once in the last 21 games. He was in single digits in 10 of his last 19 games. He did not block a shot in the last 28 games and only had two for the entire season. He had 14 blocks in his freshman season, a number that should be double that with his size.

His season high for rebounds was 10 and he did that once. He did not have a double figure rebound game in the last 27 games. He was not scoring, he was not rebounding, he was not blocking shots. He is 6'10" and 230 pounds. What happened to him?

"Regressed badly"?

2017-18: 21.3 mins/g, 12.2 pts, 4.4 rbs, 1.2 ast
2018-19: 24.9 mins/g, 12.5 pts, 4.3 rbs, 1.4 ast

Stagnated? Maybe, but not regressed. Ale caught fire during conference play and rode that out in 2017-18, but he also wasn't sharing the front court with another conference first-teamer in M. Finke that year either. Given the expectations, I think it's fair to say last year may have felt like a step back for Ale to Lopes fans. The reality is that feeling is probably more accurately describes as diappointment that he didn't take a step forward. Overall, he was pretty much just the same.
07-28-2019 07:57 PM
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Trod0 Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Some early WAC MBB Predictions
(07-28-2019 07:57 PM)gleadley Wrote:  
(07-28-2019 04:20 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(07-28-2019 01:52 PM)Lopes87 Wrote:  
(07-28-2019 12:21 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(07-27-2019 06:52 PM)Trod0 Wrote:  In your honest opinion, where do you have them placing at the end of the year? As far as the losing record I was talking about WAC play since were talking about WAC predictions.

Obviously, the favorite is NMSU. After that, there are questions about different schools. GCU was a disappointment last season. They ended up being a paper tiger. I thought Frayer and Lever took steps backward. Carlos Johnson was very impressive. At this point, I think they are the third or fourth in the WAC only because I don't trust them. I am not sure if Majerle is the right coach there. If Chris Jans was the head coach at GCU, then I would go with GCU to win the conference.

Seattle had a rash of injuries last season. I would like to see what they could do if they could stay healthy. I think Jim Hayford is an excellent offensive coach and I think that team could be anywhere from 2nd to 4th in the WAC. There is a lot of talent in the Seattle area and Hayford is recruiting well on the west coast, particularly in California.

CBU will be bigger and more athletic next season with the players coming in. They led the conference in scoring, but they need to get better defensively. Consistently better defense would translate to more fast break baskets. The big question is, will they go 7-deep or 10-deep on their roster? If they can establish a deeper roster, I think they are the 2nd best team in the conference. In the long run, with the talent in Southern California, with their talent pipeline to Australia, with an excellent head coach in Croy and with the school's commitment to athletics, they will be a constant presence among the best schools in the WAC.

I will pick them for 2nd, but they could end up 4th. I don't expect UTRGV, UVU or CSUB to be easy games, but I don't think they have the talent to stay with the top four. UMKC and Chicago State have hired good coaches and they just need time to recruit and develop their talent.

Lever stats wise was a tad better than his freshman year.
Frayer on the other hand did take a step back and it was noticeable.

Hayford has done a great job at SU
Croy has done a good job but needs to help Milan out b/c the strategy for teams after a while forcing the ball out of his hand as much as possible and that stagnated CBU offense at times. Milan had his issues vs GCU as well. Milan is a good player and with Boyd coming in that should help.

NMST

GCU SU CBU

UVU UTRGV Bake

ChicagoSt UMKC

Is how I see it in tiers

Lever regressed badly. He was All-WAC first team in the 2017-2018 season. In his last sixteen games that season, he scored 20 points or more nine times. This season, he scored 20 or more once in the last 21 games. He was in single digits in 10 of his last 19 games. He did not block a shot in the last 28 games and only had two for the entire season. He had 14 blocks in his freshman season, a number that should be double that with his size.

His season high for rebounds was 10 and he did that once. He did not have a double figure rebound game in the last 27 games. He was not scoring, he was not rebounding, he was not blocking shots. He is 6'10" and 230 pounds. What happened to him?

"Regressed badly"?

2017-18: 21.3 mins/g, 12.2 pts, 4.4 rbs, 1.2 ast
2018-19: 24.9 mins/g, 12.5 pts, 4.3 rbs, 1.4 ast

Stagnated? Maybe, but not regressed. Ale caught fire during conference play and rode that out in 2017-18, but he also wasn't sharing the front court with another conference first-teamer in M. Finke that year either. Given the expectations, I think it's fair to say last year may have felt like a step back for Ale to Lopes fans. The reality is that feeling is probably more accurately describes as diappointment that he didn't take a step forward. Overall, he was pretty much just the same.

Exactly, he didn’t regress he just maintained on what he did the year before. I think everyone was expecting him to make a big leap but he didn’t. Maybe use the guy to his strengths, play him outside like a small forward where he has the option to shoot or dish the ball in. I think he could pull the opposing bigs out and freeing up down under. The guy still has 2 more years and has the potential to have a breakout season. Also like PP said, coaches adjusted to his style of play and didn’t allow him to have their breakout season last year.
07-28-2019 08:10 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Online
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Post: #39
RE: Some early WAC MBB Predictions
(07-28-2019 07:57 PM)gleadley Wrote:  "Regressed badly"?

2017-18: 21.3 mins/g, 12.2 pts, 4.4 rbs, 1.2 ast
2018-19: 24.9 mins/g, 12.5 pts, 4.3 rbs, 1.4 ast

Stagnated? Maybe, but not regressed. Ale caught fire during conference play and rode that out in 2017-18, but he also wasn't sharing the front court with another conference first-teamer in M. Finke that year either. Given the expectations, I think it's fair to say last year may have felt like a step back for Ale to Lopes fans. The reality is that feeling is probably more accurately describes as diappointment that he didn't take a step forward. Overall, he was pretty much just the same.

Yes, regressed badly. In WAC games in 2017-2018, Lever averaged:

16.7 points per game
5.2 rebounds
had 8 blocks
averaged 25 minutes per game (17 games)

His play earned him first team All-WAC for the 2017-2018 season, plus Newcomer of the Year. Based on the 2017-2018 season, he was picked by both the coaches and the media to the preseason WAC first team and to be WAC preseason Player of the Year in 2018-2019:

https://www.bakersfield.com/sports/prese...e9c89.html

His numbers fell short in WAC games in 2018-2019:

10.8 points per game
3.8 rebounds per game
0 blocked shots
27 minutes per game (19 games).

He regressed in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots in WAC play (season & tournament). He was not close to the player the media and coaches thought he would be. You cannot look at the numbers in WAC play and say he did not regress from the season before. The way he played in the WAC in 2017-2018, most people thought he was going to get even better the next season. He just did not.
(This post was last modified: 07-28-2019 10:47 PM by SoCalBobcat78.)
07-28-2019 09:43 PM
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gleadley Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Some early WAC MBB Predictions
Again, disappointment is different than regression. GCU was coming up short of options toward the end of 2017-18 and Ale became the go-to for Majerle. At the same time in 2018-19, the Lopes had late surges of offensive production from Carlos Johnson, Michael Finke, and even Damari Millstead.

The result for Ale was two fewer shots per game (9.3). His shot selection also shifted heavily, with almost 40% 3PT attempts. Though he shot a better 3PT% in his sophomore year (up to .378 from .333), hanging out behind the arc also cut heavily into his free throw attempts. Lever shot 81 FTs in 2017-18 conference play, versus just 37 in 2018-19.

All that is to say that the emergence of other scoring options for GCU had way more to do with the things you're pointing to than any kind of regression in Ale's skills and/or abilities. Disappointment, especially given the heightened preseason expectations? Sure. Regressed? I don't see it.
07-28-2019 11:44 PM
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