(07-23-2019 02:10 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  

(07-23-2019 10:10 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Every male in my high school class was independently living away from their parents by age 19. That's now the anomaly instead of he norm.

That's because it's basically impossible to do so.

I was living on my own at 21, but that was only because I was willing to live with 3 other people, nearly exclusively ate peanut butter sandwiches and easy mac, and was gifted a 15 year old car to get to work. I was also extremely fortunate that USC willing to pay for nearly my entire education and my parents were financially able to pick up the slack.

The financial obstacles to success are just so high now that young people just can't be expected to do what prior generations could do

I didn't say it was your fault. My grandchildren are going through the same thing. Times were freer in my day. The cost of living wasn't that high. But then I seriously started working at 10 and paid cash for my first car (which was new) and that vehicle saw me through my undergraduate degree. Lot rent in the mobile home park was 35 bucks a month and I paid cash for a new mobile home. The brand new Oldsmobile was 5,400 and the mobile home was 10,800. Tuition and books were around 3,800 a year. So all I had to do was work for groceries and utilities while I went to school. Kids aren't allowed to work at 10 now. New cars run 20,000 twice as much as my trailer and I don't know about mobile homes because I haven't priced one in 50 years. It's ridiculous!

All of this has been created by two things. 1. Government guaranteed student loans which allowed schools to charge more and more. 2. The pedigreeing of everything by paper diplomas being required for job applications. This led to needing a master's for some promotions and a doctorate for others. And then add the grossly expanding certification processes in each field and voila you make it where everyone needs higher ed just to get and keep a job. That too drives up the cost.

And then you can toss in for good measure that the certification process coupled with higher costs in education drove up the labor market causing jobs to go overseas which in turn led to lower entry positions here, the salaries of which couldn't keep up with student debt. Now Healthcare is even doing this to doctors many of which get out of medical school owing as much as $250,000 or more, or in other words they start practice owing for a debt equal to the cost of moderate home they can't live in and then have to rent or buy another just as costly to actually live in. Back in the old days the military might have paid for the medical school in exchange for 8 years of service, but not any more. So Gamecock, the Boomers didn't do this to you. Bureaucracy did.

(07-22-2019 06:55 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  I think we'll see another 6-8 P5 programs added in the next 6-8 years.

As more northeastern folks move to the South it will continue to raise in popularity. The big shortage is in coaching down South.

Its a very niche sport. Its regional in the east and elsewhere its a upper class/high upper middle class sport even more than golf.

Time for Texas, California, Arizona, and Oregon to jump on the Division I Men's Lacrosse band wagon

(07-23-2019 10:30 AM)AppfanInCAAland Wrote:  I think it's like soccer in the sense that it may become more popular from a spectator side as the people playing grow up, but it is decades behind soccer in that development. It may someday pass baseball (as the OP asks) but I don't expect to be alive to see it - maybe in like 75 years (if people still play and watch team sports then).

That's why I posed the question "where"? I don't expect it to pass baseball overall or to pass college Baseball overall, in the next 50 years, and probably not in this century. But passing college baseball in the parts of the country where college baseball is much less of a big deal is a much less daunting challenge.

AFAIU, Akron started women's lacrosse on the basis of it being a net-surplus revenue proposition when the impact on enrollments are included. With Title IX, that only works for either starting a women's program or for starting both. And so, as with soccer, we'll see a faster expansion of women's lacrosse programs than men's lacrosse programs across the Great Lakes and Upper Plains states.

Really, for men's Lacrosse, it hinges on how long the current rapid growth rates in Chicagoland keep up. That is growth from a small base, and we won't really know the size of the niche until it switches from exponential to linear growth, which is when it has more or less got to the halfway point in filling up its niche. It's plausible that in the 20's it keeps growing at a fast enough pace that by the 30's Northwestern, Indiana and Purdue are starting programs for exposure in Chicago high schools and then Illinois has to start a program to counter. Then the opportunity to play a wider number of Big Ten schools pulls a number of MAC programs into adding lacrosse ... some of them dropping baseball in the process.

It's equally plausible that exponential growth starts to taper off in the next few years, it just grows from a small niche sport to a slightly larger niche sport, those Chicago oriented schools never have much reason to add the sport, and it continues to slowly add programs but -- outside of the 1/6th of the country where it's largely based at present -- it remains somewhere in between men's volleyball and men's soccer for the foreseeable future.

(07-22-2019 07:31 PM)Renandpat Wrote:  Youth lacrosse, like youth football, has a concussion problem. Baseball doesn't really have such an issue. At the NCAA level, more concussions are practice related than in competition

(07-22-2019 07:31 PM)chess Wrote:  I am in the suburbs of Chicago. LAX is growing so fast. Parents are concerned about football. LAX become the replacement.

These two statements are both true. It just shows that most people are idiots when it comes to assessing risk.

(07-24-2019 08:01 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(07-22-2019 07:31 PM)Renandpat Wrote:  Youth lacrosse, like youth football, has a concussion problem. Baseball doesn't really have such an issue. At the NCAA level, more concussions are practice related than in competition

(07-22-2019 07:31 PM)chess Wrote:  I am in the suburbs of Chicago. LAX is growing so fast. Parents are concerned about football. LAX become the replacement.

These two statements are both true. It just shows that most people are idiots when it comes to assessing risk.

That presumes they actually care about the risk.

Lacrosse team families are whiter and richer than football team families. You slot your kid where your aspirations are.

(07-23-2019 02:49 PM)nickp Wrote:  Time for Texas, California, Arizona, and Oregon to jump on the Division I Men's Lacrosse band wagon

Texas doesn't even support college soccer, why would it add lacrosse?

University of Texas? No soccer team.
Texas A&M: No
TCU: No
Baylor: No
Houston: No
SMU: Yes
Rice: No
North Texas: No
UTSA: No
UTEP: No
Texas State: No

(07-24-2019 06:22 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(07-23-2019 02:49 PM)nickp Wrote:  Time for Texas, California, Arizona, and Oregon to jump on the Division I Men's Lacrosse band wagon

Texas doesn't even support college soccer, why would it add lacrosse?

University of Texas? No soccer team.
Texas A&M: No
TCU: No
Baylor: No
Houston: No
SMU: Yes
Rice: No
North Texas: No
UTSA: No
UTEP: No
Texas State: No

UTRGV, Houston Baptist and Incarnate Word all sponsor at the DI level.

(07-24-2019 06:22 PM)DFW HOYA Wrote:  

(07-23-2019 02:49 PM)nickp Wrote:  Time for Texas, California, Arizona, and Oregon to jump on the Division I Men's Lacrosse band wagon

Texas doesn't even support college soccer, why would it add lacrosse?

University of Texas? No soccer team.
Texas A&M: No
TCU: No
Baylor: No
Houston: No
SMU: Yes
Rice: No
North Texas: No
UTSA: No
UTEP: No
Texas State: No

While true, lacrosse is being playing in Dallas. My cousin's son, who plays in Dallas, just earned a scholarship to play for Ohio State.

I wrote a little about this in the Big Ten form. But the TL/DR is lacrosse expansion does not seem to be as likely as I had expected.

https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink?url=htt...are_type=t

(07-22-2019 07:31 PM)Renandpat Wrote:  Youth lacrosse, like youth football, has a concussion problem. Baseball doesn't really have such an issue. At the NCAA level, more concussions are practice related than in competition

It is estimated that as many as 1.6-3.8 million concussions occur in the US per year in competitive sports and recreational activities; this is a rough estimate, since as many as 50% of concussions go unreported.[11] Concussions occur in all sports with the highest incidence in American football, ice hockey, rugby, soccer, and basketball.[3] In addition to concussions caused by a single severe impact, multiple minor impacts may also cause brain injury.[12]

Injury rate (all types) per exposure based on sport in collegiate athletes from 1998 to 2004[13]
Sport Injury rate per 1,000 athletic exposures
Women's ice hockey 0.91
Men's spring football (American) 0.54
Men's ice hockey 0.41
Women's soccer 0.41
Men's football (American) 0.40
Men's soccer 0.28
Men's lacrosse 0.25
Women's lacrosse 0.25
Men's wrestling 0.25
Women's basketball 0.22
Women's field hockey 0.18
Men's basketball 0.16
Women's gymnastics 0.16
Women's softball 0.14
Women's volleyball 0.09
Men's baseball 0.07
All sports 0.28

Lacrosse is growing rapidly at the junior and high school level in the south and west. But the problem is the stagnation at the college level due to the way Title IX works. Virtually every decent size college has a club team and many compete at a high level that seeks to be a defacto D3, but growth at the D1 level simply hasn’t kept pace.