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UCbball21 Online
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Fast forward to 2025...
So we all know that the next round of conference realignment after the dust settles with the AAC will occur as the Big 12 approaches the end of the GOR in 2025. I think both the B1G and SEC are likely targeting Texas and Oklahoma for #15 and #16. Now I don't necessarily think this will happen but for the sake of this thought experiment, let's say that Oklahoma and Texas join the B1G since the B1G is in a little better fiscal position than the SEC (assuming their next TV deal in 2022 doesn't decrease payouts) and is superior academically.

What would happen next?

If the Big 12 loses both of their elite brands to the B1G the several months following would be absolute chaos. I think you would have a host of Big 12 programs lobbying the SEC and PAC-12 for an invite. I don't think the ACC would be interested in adding a program since they seem content to wait on Notre Dame to add a 16th school and West Virginia is really the only Big 12 school in their footprint.

The PAC-12 is the most likely conference to go on the offensive considering they are struggling to keep up with the rest of the Power conferences financially. I think they would target either 2 or 4 schools to Big 12 schools to add. The SEC may want to add 2 schools but I don't know if any of remaining Big 12 schools warrant an invite. They may elect to hold steady at 14 and wait till their next TV contract to target ACC schools.

I think that the PAC-12 would look to add Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and TCU to expand into markets that actually care about football and boost their failing PAC-12 network. The California schools scoffed at Texas Tech and Oklahoma State before but I think money changes their mind once the TV negotiations start before the end of their 2024 deal. Kansas is a no brainer as they fit their academic profile and expand the footprint. Texas Tech and TCU give the PAC-12 a strong foothold in Texas and Oklahoma State, while not Oklahoma, is still a strong program in their own right. Baylor and BYU don't fit the PAC-12's academic profile with their religious affiliation and Boise State is basically a community college. Iowa State and WVU are too far away geographically to be realistic candidates and KSU is meh with or without Kansas in the fold.

This would leave the Big 12 with four programs remaining: Baylor, WVU, Iowa State, and Kansas State. The Big 12 would look to add at least 6 schools in order to hold a CCG and salvage their next television contract. There are (in my eyes) 7 no brainer candidates (in no particular order).

UCF: Great football, improving basketball, a foothold in the Florida market for eyes and recruiting, and an improving academic profile once they stop increasing enrollment.

Cincinnati: Strong football, great basketball, good market and adds Ohio recruiting, travel partner for WVU, decent academics, and is particularly strong in research.

Houston: Strong football, good basketball, gains back some of the valuable Texas market they lost for TV and recruiting, and improving academics.

BYU: Historic football program, a national profile, and good academics...they can work out the rest of the sports with the whole Sunday issue.

Memphis: Strong football, great basketball, good recruiting base...academics are a drawback but they are improving.

Boise State: Great football, improving basketball...terrible academics but would their TV ratings make the Big 12 look the other way?

USF: Strong football, improving basketball, another foothold in the valuable Florida market, and another decent academic school with strong research prowess.

The next group of schools that would be considered for #12 would probably be SMU, SDSU, Temple, and Air Force.

In the end, I think you would end up with a 10 team Big 12 with Boise left in the MWC. The new Big 12 would basically become a much stronger version of the AAC but still likely lose their access bowl without any elite brands. With that said, I think that league would compete at just as high of a level as the Pac-12 and ACC and sets itself up nicely for future expansion. ESPN would have a vested interest in keeping the league competing at a high level since there are still valuable brands left in that league. A further divide is created between now the P4(.5) and the G5.

What do you all think would happen?
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2019 12:48 AM by UCbball21.)
07-11-2019 12:36 AM
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Blue76 Offline
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RE: Fast forward to 2025...
Colorado State?
07-11-2019 01:16 AM
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goofus Offline
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RE: Fast forward to 2025...
If the Big Ten added Texas and Oklahoma, I am not sure what the other P5 conferences could do as a counter move.

The SEC could counter by adding TCU and Ok St. That way, they don't totally concede the Dallas and Oklahoma City Markets, if markets are still important in 2025.

The PAC expanding into the central time zone probably does not make sense without Texas. Maybe the PAC could form an alliance with the remaining Big12, staying as separate conferences but negotiate all tv and bowl contracts together. But in the end they would have to split that money among all members, so what's the point?

The ACC would not have many options, and probably should be more afraid of the SEC raiding them. But schools like UNC would not jump to SEC alone. It would have to be some kind of package deal with UNC, NCSU, Duke, FSU, Clemson And Va all being invited together, which would balloon the SEC to 20 teams. Just don't see that happening. The ACC could give Notre Dame an ultimatum, join the football conference or get out of the ACC all-together. But Notre Dame would probably call that bluff and go back to the Big East. The ACC could maybe merge with the Big 12, but what would that gain them?

Game over, man. The big ten wins.
07-11-2019 03:45 AM
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DavidSt Offline
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RE: Fast forward to 2025...
Boise State is a R2 in academics. They are not terrible.
07-11-2019 05:39 AM
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stever20 Online
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RE: Fast forward to 2025...
I think it's a major fallacy that the Big Ten is in a better fiscal position than the SEC. Yes, the Big Ten is making about 100 million more right now. But that's with the SEC having a tier 1 deal with CBS that is probably at least 150 million short of what it will be here in a few years. Yes the Big Ten's tv deals will go up some- but not that much....
07-11-2019 07:22 AM
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Captain Bearcat Online
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RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 03:45 AM)goofus Wrote:  If the Big Ten added Texas and Oklahoma, I am not sure what the other P5 conferences could do as a counter move.

The SEC could counter by adding TCU and Ok St. That way, they don't totally concede the Dallas and Oklahoma City Markets, if markets are still important in 2025.

The PAC expanding into the central time zone probably does not make sense without Texas. Maybe the PAC could form an alliance with the remaining Big12, staying as separate conferences but negotiate all tv and bowl contracts together. But in the end they would have to split that money among all members, so what's the point?

The ACC would not have many options, and probably should be more afraid of the SEC raiding them. But schools like UNC would not jump to SEC alone. It would have to be some kind of package deal with UNC, NCSU, Duke, FSU, Clemson And Va all being invited together, which would balloon the SEC to 20 teams. Just don't see that happening. The ACC could give Notre Dame an ultimatum, join the football conference or get out of the ACC all-together. But Notre Dame would probably call that bluff and go back to the Big East. The ACC could maybe merge with the Big 12, but what would that gain them?

Game over, man. The big ten wins.

The SEC and Big 10 make so much money that there's very few schools that make sense for them to add in any scenario.

The only Big 12 schools the SEC would take are Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas.

The only Big 12 schools the Big 10 would take are Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas.

The only other schools the SEC would take (in order): North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Virginia, and NC State.

The only other schools the Big 10 would take (in order): North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Duke, and NC State.
07-11-2019 07:45 AM
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RE: Fast forward to 2025...
No changes unless there is paying the players, then we’ll see if separate organization or another division.
07-11-2019 07:55 AM
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zoocrew Offline
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RE: Fast forward to 2025...
West: ISU, KU, KSU, BYU, TCU, Baylor, Houston

East: WVU, Temple, Cincy, Memphis, UCF, USF, UConn

UConn can’t make up their mind.

I think ESPN owns this league and still just uses the P5 line to describe it...it’s unquestionably a power basketball league, probably the 2nd best.

Might actually get a throwaway access slot in the Fiesta or Peach vs the G5 champ.
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2019 08:35 AM by zoocrew.)
07-11-2019 08:31 AM
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RE: Fast forward to 2025...
The B1G does not have a contiguous state requirement for expansion, so - in theory - they could easily take both Oklahoma/Texas without worrying about also grabbing Kansas in order to connect their states. I do agree with Stever that the next SEC TV deal will sky rocket (at least its most likely), but I do think the academic association for state universities (especially of AAU status) is a huge value in itself. I do not think that Texas would move to the B1G without another Texas-affiliated school to come along with it; and I am unsure if the B1G would take-on that demand in order to get Texas. I think Texas, long-term, is a much easier fit (if they ever were to move) for the SEC, as A&M is already present (I know the schools aren't jumping at the chance to realign currently, but that could change in the future) as well as bringing along a TCU (which would solidify the Dallas market).

For the B1G, long-term, it might very well be easier to push west and begin a raid on the PAC with Colorado. Denver is a huge market for B1G alumni, and it has been rumored that CU has been underwhelmed (like a few) with the PAC Network. I still think an Oklahoma/Kansas pairing is most likely (if there is a Big 12 raid) for the B1G (w/ Colorado and Iowa State likely if they move to 18), with Texas/OK State going to the SEC (w/ TCU and WVU likely if they move to 18).
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2019 08:36 AM by GoldenWarrior11.)
07-11-2019 08:35 AM
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zoocrew Offline
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RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 07:45 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 03:45 AM)goofus Wrote:  If the Big Ten added Texas and Oklahoma, I am not sure what the other P5 conferences could do as a counter move.

The SEC could counter by adding TCU and Ok St. That way, they don't totally concede the Dallas and Oklahoma City Markets, if markets are still important in 2025.

The PAC expanding into the central time zone probably does not make sense without Texas. Maybe the PAC could form an alliance with the remaining Big12, staying as separate conferences but negotiate all tv and bowl contracts together. But in the end they would have to split that money among all members, so what's the point?

The ACC would not have many options, and probably should be more afraid of the SEC raiding them. But schools like UNC would not jump to SEC alone. It would have to be some kind of package deal with UNC, NCSU, Duke, FSU, Clemson And Va all being invited together, which would balloon the SEC to 20 teams. Just don't see that happening. The ACC could give Notre Dame an ultimatum, join the football conference or get out of the ACC all-together. But Notre Dame would probably call that bluff and go back to the Big East. The ACC could maybe merge with the Big 12, but what would that gain them?

Game over, man. The big ten wins.

The SEC and Big 10 make so much money that there's very few schools that make sense for them to add in any scenario.

The only Big 12 schools the SEC would take are Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas.

The only Big 12 schools the Big 10 would take are Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas.

The only other schools the SEC would take (in order): North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Virginia, and NC State.

The only other schools the Big 10 would take (in order): North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Duke, and NC State.


This is pretty much spot on. Both leagues grocery lists are pretty much the same.

1. Texas/Oklahoma
2. Raid the **** out of the ACC

The PAC is safe from poaching. They’d be in a much better position if they pulled a Hail Mary and snagged Texahoma however.
07-11-2019 08:41 AM
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Bogg Offline
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RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 08:35 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I think Texas, long-term, is a much easier fit (if they ever were to move) for the SEC, as A&M is already present (I know the schools aren't jumping at the chance to realign currently, but that could change in the future) as well as bringing along a TCU (which would solidify the Dallas market).

Texas politics may wind up such that it has to be Tech that comes along with UT unless Tech is able to line up an emergency escape to the PAC independently. However, I would think Texas (as a state body) would prefer TT, UT, & TAMU all in one conference again if possible.
07-11-2019 08:43 AM
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RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 08:35 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  The B1G does not have a contiguous state requirement for expansion, so - in theory - they could easily take both Oklahoma/Texas without worrying about also grabbing Kansas in order to connect their states. I do agree with Stever that the next SEC TV deal will sky rocket (at least its most likely), but I do think the academic association for state universities (especially of AAU status) is a huge value in itself. I do not think that Texas would move to the B1G without another Texas-affiliated school to come along with it; and I am unsure if the B1G would take-on that demand in order to get Texas. I think Texas, long-term, is a much easier fit (if they ever were to move) for the SEC, as A&M is already present (I know the schools aren't jumping at the chance to realign currently, but that could change in the future) as well as bringing along a TCU (which would solidify the Dallas market).

For the B1G, long-term, it might very well be easier to push west and begin a raid on the PAC with Colorado. Denver is a huge market for B1G alumni, and it has been rumored that CU has been underwhelmed (like a few) with the PAC Network. I still think an Oklahoma/Kansas pairing is most likely (if there is a Big 12 raid) for the B1G (w/ Colorado and Iowa State likely if they move to 18), with Texas/OK State going to the SEC (w/ TCU and WVU likely if they move to 18).

wait, the Pac 12 network has been underwhelming? There's an understatement of epic proportions.....

I think we have another 2-3 years before things really get rolling on realignment. This dead period that JRsec was talking about is just about over now. And one thing we've learned is that every subsequent realignment period is more intense than the one before.
07-11-2019 08:50 AM
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RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 07:55 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  No changes unless there is paying the players, then we’ll see if separate organization or another division.

Agreed. Right now, I just can't see any changes in the P5.
07-11-2019 09:38 AM
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RE: Fast forward to 2025...
2025-no conference changes. Every one is finally happy where they are

CFP expands to 8. 5 auto bids, 2 at large, 1 for the highest ranked G5 school as long as they are in the Top 12.
07-11-2019 10:05 AM
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10thMountain Offline
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RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 10:05 AM)Big Frog II Wrote:  2025-no conference changes. Every one is finally happy where they are

CFP expands to 8. 5 auto bids, 2 at large, 1 for the highest ranked G5 school as long as they are in the Top 12.

That’s certainly the dream scenario for B12 stability and those of us who root for the teams in it that don’t have a clear P conference landing spot if anything happened.

Realistically though the next few years are critical because if the B12 continues to get left out the playoff/blown out in the first round and the B1G and SEC land monster TV deals, there’s a definite chance OU and or UT start looking elsewhere because that’s exactly the same scenario in the 90s that precipitated the break up of the SWC.
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2019 10:13 AM by 10thMountain.)
07-11-2019 10:11 AM
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Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 01:16 AM)Blue76 Wrote:  Colorado State?


Uh, no? Mediocrity in the MW does not a P5 make.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2019 10:54 AM by Jjoey52.)
07-11-2019 10:51 AM
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RE: Fast forward to 2025...
Not sure the big 10 would stop if they added Texas and OU, might add KU and Missouri to get to 18 than eventually go after pac 12 schools or everybody. If the big 10 added only UT and OU, I would guess the sec would add Clemson and FSU to bring in football brands to get to 16. The acc probably adds WVU, Cincinnati and Kansas to also get to 16 and the pac 12 maybe Texas tech and Houston for the Texas market. The Mwc and AAC fest on the big 12 leftovers
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2019 11:35 AM by bluesox.)
07-11-2019 11:33 AM
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UCbball21 Online
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RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 08:35 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  The B1G does not have a contiguous state requirement for expansion, so - in theory - they could easily take both Oklahoma/Texas without worrying about also grabbing Kansas in order to connect their states. I do agree with Stever that the next SEC TV deal will sky rocket (at least its most likely), but I do think the academic association for state universities (especially of AAU status) is a huge value in itself. I do not think that Texas would move to the B1G without another Texas-affiliated school to come along with it; and I am unsure if the B1G would take-on that demand in order to get Texas. I think Texas, long-term, is a much easier fit (if they ever were to move) for the SEC, as A&M is already present (I know the schools aren't jumping at the chance to realign currently, but that could change in the future) as well as bringing along a TCU (which would solidify the Dallas market).

For the B1G, long-term, it might very well be easier to push west and begin a raid on the PAC with Colorado. Denver is a huge market for B1G alumni, and it has been rumored that CU has been underwhelmed (like a few) with the PAC Network. I still think an Oklahoma/Kansas pairing is most likely (if there is a Big 12 raid) for the B1G (w/ Colorado and Iowa State likely if they move to 18), with Texas/OK State going to the SEC (w/ TCU and WVU likely if they move to 18).

Texas would be able to schedule plenty of Texas teams in the non-conference. I don't think they are tied to the hip with Texas Tech when there are potentially tens of millions of dollars in annual revenue at stake.

Colorado is a non-starter for the B1G, they will only look to add elite brands and Colorado, while not bad, is not quite up to snuff. Iowa State is another non-starter.
07-11-2019 01:14 PM
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RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 10:11 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 10:05 AM)Big Frog II Wrote:  2025-no conference changes. Every one is finally happy where they are

CFP expands to 8. 5 auto bids, 2 at large, 1 for the highest ranked G5 school as long as they are in the Top 12.

That’s certainly the dream scenario for B12 stability and those of us who root for the teams in it that don’t have a clear P conference landing spot if anything happened.

Realistically though the next few years are critical because if the B12 continues to get left out the playoff/blown out in the first round and the B1G and SEC land monster TV deals, there’s a definite chance OU and or UT start looking elsewhere because that’s exactly the same scenario in the 90s that precipitated the break up of the SWC.

Big 12, Texas and OU are in great shape. They are #1 and #7 in revenues. The Big 12 is easily #3 in revenues per school and that is less than 25% of either school's total athletics revenues. Anything else is just wishful thinking by people who want change or have something against the Big 12.

Now, of course, that is not the theme of this thread. The OP is first making an assumption that Texas and OU leave for the Big 10.

And lets see. The Big 10 has been outscored 68-0 since year 1 of the playoffs and their champ has been bypassed 3 years running. The Pac 12 has had one team in the last 4 years and they lost 24-7. Meanwhile OU lost 45-34 last year and by 6 in 2OT the year before. Hardly blown out. And Texas dominated Georgia in the Sugar last year. Other NY6 games in the CFP history-TCU destroyed Ole Miss. Ole Miss destroyed Okie St. Baylor blew a big lead and lost by 1. I just don't know what alternate reality the Aggie fan is living in.
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2019 02:03 PM by bullet.)
07-11-2019 01:53 PM
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RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 01:53 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 10:11 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 10:05 AM)Big Frog II Wrote:  2025-no conference changes. Every one is finally happy where they are

CFP expands to 8. 5 auto bids, 2 at large, 1 for the highest ranked G5 school as long as they are in the Top 12.

That’s certainly the dream scenario for B12 stability and those of us who root for the teams in it that don’t have a clear P conference landing spot if anything happened.

Realistically though the next few years are critical because if the B12 continues to get left out the playoff/blown out in the first round and the B1G and SEC land monster TV deals, there’s a definite chance OU and or UT start looking elsewhere because that’s exactly the same scenario in the 90s that precipitated the break up of the SWC.

Big 12, Texas and OU are in great shape. They are #1 and #7 in revenues. The Big 12 is easily #3 in revenues per school and that is less than 25% of either school's total athletics revenues. Anything else is just wishful thinking by people who want change or have something against the Big 12.

Now, of course, that is not the theme of this thread. The OP is first making an assumption that Texas and OU leave for the Big 10.

And lets see. The Big 10 has been outscored 68-0 since year 1 of the playoffs and their champ has been bypassed 3 years running. The Pac 12 has had one team in the last 4 years and they lost 24-7. Meanwhile OU lost 45-34 last year and by 6 in 2OT the year before. Hardly blown out. And Texas dominated Georgia in the Sugar last year. Other NY6 games in the CFP history-TCU destroyed Ole Miss. Ole Miss destroyed Okie St. Baylor blew a big lead and lost by 1. I just don't know what alternate reality the Aggie fan is living in.

That would be the reality where the B12 only makes the playoff if one of the other P4 teams drops a game and then never makes it out of the semi finals.

It’s the reality where UT and OU will be making the same money that Northwestern and Vanderbilt make after the next round of TV deals

But don’t get me wrong, we’re on the same side here

I want the B12 to stay exactly like it is now forever too
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2019 03:35 PM by 10thMountain.)
07-11-2019 03:30 PM
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