Fast forward to 2025...
So we all know that the next round of conference realignment after the dust settles with the AAC will occur as the Big 12 approaches the end of the GOR in 2025. I think both the B1G and SEC are likely targeting Texas and Oklahoma for #15 and #16. Now I don't necessarily think this will happen but for the sake of this thought experiment, let's say that Oklahoma and Texas join the B1G since the B1G is in a little better fiscal position than the SEC (assuming their next TV deal in 2022 doesn't decrease payouts) and is superior academically.
What would happen next?
If the Big 12 loses both of their elite brands to the B1G the several months following would be absolute chaos. I think you would have a host of Big 12 programs lobbying the SEC and PAC-12 for an invite. I don't think the ACC would be interested in adding a program since they seem content to wait on Notre Dame to add a 16th school and West Virginia is really the only Big 12 school in their footprint.
The PAC-12 is the most likely conference to go on the offensive considering they are struggling to keep up with the rest of the Power conferences financially. I think they would target either 2 or 4 schools to Big 12 schools to add. The SEC may want to add 2 schools but I don't know if any of remaining Big 12 schools warrant an invite. They may elect to hold steady at 14 and wait till their next TV contract to target ACC schools.
I think that the PAC-12 would look to add Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and TCU to expand into markets that actually care about football and boost their failing PAC-12 network. The California schools scoffed at Texas Tech and Oklahoma State before but I think money changes their mind once the TV negotiations start before the end of their 2024 deal. Kansas is a no brainer as they fit their academic profile and expand the footprint. Texas Tech and TCU give the PAC-12 a strong foothold in Texas and Oklahoma State, while not Oklahoma, is still a strong program in their own right. Baylor and BYU don't fit the PAC-12's academic profile with their religious affiliation and Boise State is basically a community college. Iowa State and WVU are too far away geographically to be realistic candidates and KSU is meh with or without Kansas in the fold.
This would leave the Big 12 with four programs remaining: Baylor, WVU, Iowa State, and Kansas State. The Big 12 would look to add at least 6 schools in order to hold a CCG and salvage their next television contract. There are (in my eyes) 7 no brainer candidates (in no particular order).
UCF: Great football, improving basketball, a foothold in the Florida market for eyes and recruiting, and an improving academic profile once they stop increasing enrollment.
Cincinnati: Strong football, great basketball, good market and adds Ohio recruiting, travel partner for WVU, decent academics, and is particularly strong in research.
Houston: Strong football, good basketball, gains back some of the valuable Texas market they lost for TV and recruiting, and improving academics.
BYU: Historic football program, a national profile, and good academics...they can work out the rest of the sports with the whole Sunday issue.
Memphis: Strong football, great basketball, good recruiting base...academics are a drawback but they are improving.
Boise State: Great football, improving basketball...terrible academics but would their TV ratings make the Big 12 look the other way?
USF: Strong football, improving basketball, another foothold in the valuable Florida market, and another decent academic school with strong research prowess.
The next group of schools that would be considered for #12 would probably be SMU, SDSU, Temple, and Air Force.
In the end, I think you would end up with a 10 team Big 12 with Boise left in the MWC. The new Big 12 would basically become a much stronger version of the AAC but still likely lose their access bowl without any elite brands. With that said, I think that league would compete at just as high of a level as the Pac-12 and ACC and sets itself up nicely for future expansion. ESPN would have a vested interest in keeping the league competing at a high level since there are still valuable brands left in that league. A further divide is created between now the P4(.5) and the G5.
What do you all think would happen?
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2019 12:48 AM by UCbball21.)
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