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JRsec Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 07:45 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 03:45 AM)goofus Wrote:  If the Big Ten added Texas and Oklahoma, I am not sure what the other P5 conferences could do as a counter move.

The SEC could counter by adding TCU and Ok St. That way, they don't totally concede the Dallas and Oklahoma City Markets, if markets are still important in 2025.

The PAC expanding into the central time zone probably does not make sense without Texas. Maybe the PAC could form an alliance with the remaining Big12, staying as separate conferences but negotiate all tv and bowl contracts together. But in the end they would have to split that money among all members, so what's the point?

The ACC would not have many options, and probably should be more afraid of the SEC raiding them. But schools like UNC would not jump to SEC alone. It would have to be some kind of package deal with UNC, NCSU, Duke, FSU, Clemson And Va all being invited together, which would balloon the SEC to 20 teams. Just don't see that happening. The ACC could give Notre Dame an ultimatum, join the football conference or get out of the ACC all-together. But Notre Dame would probably call that bluff and go back to the Big East. The ACC could maybe merge with the Big 12, but what would that gain them?

Game over, man. The big ten wins.

The SEC and Big 10 make so much money that there's very few schools that make sense for them to add in any scenario.

The only Big 12 schools the SEC would take are Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas.

The only Big 12 schools the Big 10 would take are Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas.

The only other schools the SEC would take (in order): North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Virginia, and NC State.

The only other schools the Big 10 would take (in order): North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Duke, and NC State.

And he conveniently forgets that the SEC renews it's 15 year old T1 deal with CBS the year after the Big 10 renews its Fox contract and 1 year before the GOR expires in the Big 12. So the SEC won't be in an inferior financial situation when that round of potential realignment begins. By most projection the Big 10 and SEC will be plus or minus 2 million of each other at that time depending upon the contracts.

I'm not sure when you are talking the 56-60 million range (which is what the per school payouts will be after the next 4 years of escalators are added to the new contracts) will be inclusive of some of the ACC schools you list. We aren't preparing for a market driven pay model in this next realignment, but rather we are preparing for a content driven pay model which is with the exception of T3 rights the present reality. In that kind of pay model I think you can remove Virginia, Georgia Tech, Duke, and N.C. State from that lineup for either the SEC or Big 10. And it is quite possible that a couple of the others might not meet that threshold either.

The only cinch bets are Oklahoma, Texas, Notre Dame, and possibly North Carolina, Florida State or Clemson.
07-11-2019 03:43 PM
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Post: #22
RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 12:36 AM)UCbball21 Wrote:  So we all know that the next round of conference realignment after the dust settles with the AAC will occur as the Big 12 approaches the end of the GOR in 2025. I think both the B1G and SEC are likely targeting Texas and Oklahoma for #15 and #16. Now I don't necessarily think this will happen but for the sake of this thought experiment, let's say that Oklahoma and Texas join the B1G since the B1G is in a little better fiscal position than the SEC (assuming their next TV deal in 2022 doesn't decrease payouts) and is superior academically.

What would happen next?

If the Big 12 loses both of their elite brands to the B1G the several months following would be absolute chaos. I think you would have a host of Big 12 programs lobbying the SEC and PAC-12 for an invite. I don't think the ACC would be interested in adding a program since they seem content to wait on Notre Dame to add a 16th school and West Virginia is really the only Big 12 school in their footprint.

The PAC-12 is the most likely conference to go on the offensive considering they are struggling to keep up with the rest of the Power conferences financially. I think they would target either 2 or 4 schools to Big 12 schools to add. The SEC may want to add 2 schools but I don't know if any of remaining Big 12 schools warrant an invite. They may elect to hold steady at 14 and wait till their next TV contract to target ACC schools.

I think that the PAC-12 would look to add Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and TCU to expand into markets that actually care about football and boost their failing PAC-12 network. The California schools scoffed at Texas Tech and Oklahoma State before but I think money changes their mind once the TV negotiations start before the end of their 2024 deal. Kansas is a no brainer as they fit their academic profile and expand the footprint. Texas Tech and TCU give the PAC-12 a strong foothold in Texas and Oklahoma State, while not Oklahoma, is still a strong program in their own right. Baylor and BYU don't fit the PAC-12's academic profile with their religious affiliation and Boise State is basically a community college. Iowa State and WVU are too far away geographically to be realistic candidates and KSU is meh with or without Kansas in the fold.

This would leave the Big 12 with four programs remaining: Baylor, WVU, Iowa State, and Kansas State. The Big 12 would look to add at least 6 schools in order to hold a CCG and salvage their next television contract. There are (in my eyes) 7 no brainer candidates (in no particular order).

UCF: Great football, improving basketball, a foothold in the Florida market for eyes and recruiting, and an improving academic profile once they stop increasing enrollment.

Cincinnati: Strong football, great basketball, good market and adds Ohio recruiting, travel partner for WVU, decent academics, and is particularly strong in research.

Houston: Strong football, good basketball, gains back some of the valuable Texas market they lost for TV and recruiting, and improving academics.

BYU: Historic football program, a national profile, and good academics...they can work out the rest of the sports with the whole Sunday issue.

Memphis: Strong football, great basketball, good recruiting base...academics are a drawback but they are improving.

Boise State: Great football, improving basketball...terrible academics but would their TV ratings make the Big 12 look the other way?

USF: Strong football, improving basketball, another foothold in the valuable Florida market, and another decent academic school with strong research prowess.

The next group of schools that would be considered for #12 would probably be SMU, SDSU, Temple, and Air Force.

In the end, I think you would end up with a 10 team Big 12 with Boise left in the MWC. The new Big 12 would basically become a much stronger version of the AAC but still likely lose their access bowl without any elite brands. With that said, I think that league would compete at just as high of a level as the Pac-12 and ACC and sets itself up nicely for future expansion. ESPN would have a vested interest in keeping the league competing at a high level since there are still valuable brands left in that league. A further divide is created between now the P4(.5) and the G5.

What do you all think would happen?

Whatever realignment occurs in/around 2025 will be consequential, but I don't foresee "absolute chaos." I always imagine that, somewhere in the bowels of the Pentagon, sits a detail of stragetists tasked with planning the US military response to an invasion of country A by country B and countless other scenaria, no matter how unlikely. The questions and predictions on this message board are likewise under regular discussion by decision makers in every Div I football school in America. They have considered all of the possibilties and have designed moves and countermoves. For all we know, the most important decisions may have already been agreed upon. The madness that will surely manifest itself on the internet is not "real" chaos.
I think that the SEC has sound options for expansion, even if the B1G secures Texas and Oklahoma. I don't know if the same is true for the B1G, should the SEC prevail in Texas. Resting at fourteen may be the best play for them even if Oklahoma and Kansas are available. The B1G must go all-in for Texas, or just take a seat.
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2019 04:41 PM by 33laszlo99.)
07-11-2019 04:40 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 08:35 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  The B1G does not have a contiguous state requirement for expansion, so - in theory - they could easily take both Oklahoma/Texas without worrying about also grabbing Kansas in order to connect their states. I do agree with Stever that the next SEC TV deal will sky rocket (at least its most likely), but I do think the academic association for state universities (especially of AAU status) is a huge value in itself. I do not think that Texas would move to the B1G without another Texas-affiliated school to come along with it; and I am unsure if the B1G would take-on that demand in order to get Texas. I think Texas, long-term, is a much easier fit (if they ever were to move) for the SEC, as A&M is already present (I know the schools aren't jumping at the chance to realign currently, but that could change in the future) as well as bringing along a TCU (which would solidify the Dallas market).

For the B1G, long-term, it might very well be easier to push west and begin a raid on the PAC with Colorado. Denver is a huge market for B1G alumni, and it has been rumored that CU has been underwhelmed (like a few) with the PAC Network. I still think an Oklahoma/Kansas pairing is most likely (if there is a Big 12 raid) for the B1G (w/ Colorado and Iowa State likely if they move to 18), with Texas/OK State going to the SEC (w/ TCU and WVU likely if they move to 18).

It's baffling to me why anyone would think the Big Ten would ever take Iowa State.
07-11-2019 05:06 PM
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Post: #24
RE: Fast forward to 2025...
As much as I love the Big Ten, they aren't going to land Texas. Texas's brand is built on playing lots of away/neutral site games within the state. They can't do that if they are the only Texas school in the conference. Aside from Rice, no one else in the state aside from TAMU has the academics to get in the Big Ten. TAMU is happy where they are and Rice isn't an athletic program with any real value and Big Ten membership isn't going to change that.

The Big Ten needs to hope that the Networks, particularly ESPN, decide that it's not worth it to overpay for the rest of the Big 12 and that the LHN is a money pit. This would make staying in the Big 12 untenable for both the Sooners and Longhorns.

Texas and Texas Tech to the SEC and Kansas and Oklahoma to the Big Ten seems like the most plausible outcome.
07-11-2019 05:35 PM
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Post: #25
RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 08:43 AM)Bogg Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 08:35 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I think Texas, long-term, is a much easier fit (if they ever were to move) for the SEC, as A&M is already present (I know the schools aren't jumping at the chance to realign currently, but that could change in the future) as well as bringing along a TCU (which would solidify the Dallas market).

Texas politics may wind up such that it has to be Tech that comes along with UT unless Tech is able to line up an emergency escape to the PAC independently. However, I would think Texas (as a state body) would prefer TT, UT, & TAMU all in one conference again if possible.

I wouldn't mind seeing Texas Tech, UT, OU and Oklahoma St join the SEC IF the Big 12 dissolves.
07-11-2019 06:15 PM
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Post: #26
RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 07:45 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  The SEC and Big 10 make so much money that there's very few schools that make sense for them to add in any scenario.

The only Big 12 schools the SEC would take are Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas.

The only Big 12 schools the Big 10 would take are Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas.

The only other schools the SEC would take (in order): North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Virginia, and NC State.

The only other schools the Big 10 would take (in order): North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Duke, and NC State.

Unless college basketball drastically increases in TV value relative to college football, it's not going to make economic sense for either the SEC or Big Ten to add programs like Kansas or North Carolina whose value lies in basketball.

And unless the Big Ten's 2012 strategy of just grabbing cable boxes lasts well into the future, neither the Big Ten nor SEC are going to put Virginia or North Carolina schools high on their list. Clemson and Florida State, and even Miami, are more valuable for the viewers they draw to the sport that provides 80% of the TV value for college sports. And, obviously, so is Notre Dame. Clemson, FSU, and ND, along with UT and OU, are also going to be the most valuable commodities outside the Big Ten and SEC for any financial model based on getting fans to buy per-game or per-season subscriptions.

There are other schools with value, but not enough value to justify a full share of SEC or Big Ten conference revenue.
07-11-2019 06:25 PM
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Post: #27
RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 03:45 AM)goofus Wrote:  If the Big Ten added Texas and Oklahoma, I am not sure what the other P5 conferences could do as a counter move.

Big Ten is a weakening conference because people are migrating to west and south. Thus Oklahoma would rather go to SEC. Texas would rather stay independent on football and has the Notre Dame deal with ACC. B1G's best options are Kansas and Oklahoma State to expand the footprint somewhat.

SEC is the only super conference. And in another 15 or 20 years, ACC will be No. 2.
07-11-2019 06:45 PM
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Post: #28
RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 06:25 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 07:45 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  The SEC and Big 10 make so much money that there's very few schools that make sense for them to add in any scenario.

The only Big 12 schools the SEC would take are Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas.

The only Big 12 schools the Big 10 would take are Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas.

The only other schools the SEC would take (in order): North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Virginia, and NC State.

The only other schools the Big 10 would take (in order): North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Duke, and NC State.

Unless college basketball drastically increases in TV value relative to college football, it's not going to make economic sense for either the SEC or Big Ten to add programs like Kansas or North Carolina whose value lies in basketball.

And unless the Big Ten's 2012 strategy of just grabbing cable boxes lasts well into the future, neither the Big Ten nor SEC are going to put Virginia or North Carolina schools high on their list. Clemson and Florida State, and even Miami, are more valuable for the viewers they draw to the sport that provides 80% of the TV value for college sports. And, obviously, so is Notre Dame. Clemson, FSU, and ND, along with UT and OU, are also going to be the most valuable commodities outside the Big Ten and SEC for any financial model based on getting fans to buy per-game or per-season subscriptions.

There are other schools with value, but not enough value to justify a full share of SEC or Big Ten conference revenue.

The destination of the Longhorns is very much up in the air. I give a slight betting edge to the B1G. If the move is based solely on football, the SEC is a no-brainer. Academics favor the B1G, and to us football junkies, that cannot outweigh the football argument; right?
Think of the next realignment not as happening in 2024, but as just begining then. The universities go forward from that time into an unseen future. What do we know about the future of football? We know that it is fragile because of exestential threats, primarily due to concussions. Football represents 80% of the athletic budgets and it could go away suddenly, at any time. Without football are sports even that important anymore? Can soccer fill the void? Can basketball become a Fall and Winter sport?
Next, consider a future in which brick and mortar universities go the way of brick and mortar bookstores. Only the most valued institutions in each state will be kept alive. They will be the ones with extensive STEM programs which require labs and other infrastructure for medicine, physics, engineering, and yes, agriculture. Liberal arts, even law can be delivered online to thousands of students at once. The coming G5 mobile technology will accelerate this process. If you don't have a campus, you likely won't have athletics. How far into the future will the decision makers look?
Using these considerations, Oklahoma and Kasnsas to the B1G looks like, "I'll pass." The B1G must get Texas or simply stand pat.
BTW I have thought all along that the cable carriage fee model would have a long tail. G5 could chop that off quickly.
07-11-2019 07:53 PM
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33laszlo99 Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 05:35 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  As much as I love the Big Ten, they aren't going to land Texas. Texas's brand is built on playing lots of away/neutral site games within the state. They can't do that if they are the only Texas school in the conference. Aside from Rice, no one else in the state aside from TAMU has the academics to get in the Big Ten. TAMU is happy where they are and Rice isn't an athletic program with any real value and Big Ten membership isn't going to change that.

The Big Ten needs to hope that the Networks, particularly ESPN, decide that it's not worth it to overpay for the rest of the Big 12 and that the LHN is a money pit. This would make staying in the Big 12 untenable for both the Sooners and Longhorns.

Texas and Texas Tech to the SEC and Kansas and Oklahoma to the Big Ten seems like the most plausible outcome.

"Texas's brand is built on playing lots of away/neutral site games within the state."
That will be the Texas brand until it isn't.
07-11-2019 07:56 PM
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Post: #30
RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 07:53 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 06:25 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 07:45 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  The SEC and Big 10 make so much money that there's very few schools that make sense for them to add in any scenario.

The only Big 12 schools the SEC would take are Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas.

The only Big 12 schools the Big 10 would take are Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas.

The only other schools the SEC would take (in order): North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Virginia, and NC State.

The only other schools the Big 10 would take (in order): North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Duke, and NC State.

Unless college basketball drastically increases in TV value relative to college football, it's not going to make economic sense for either the SEC or Big Ten to add programs like Kansas or North Carolina whose value lies in basketball.

And unless the Big Ten's 2012 strategy of just grabbing cable boxes lasts well into the future, neither the Big Ten nor SEC are going to put Virginia or North Carolina schools high on their list. Clemson and Florida State, and even Miami, are more valuable for the viewers they draw to the sport that provides 80% of the TV value for college sports. And, obviously, so is Notre Dame. Clemson, FSU, and ND, along with UT and OU, are also going to be the most valuable commodities outside the Big Ten and SEC for any financial model based on getting fans to buy per-game or per-season subscriptions.

There are other schools with value, but not enough value to justify a full share of SEC or Big Ten conference revenue.

The destination of the Longhorns is very much up in the air. I give a slight betting edge to the B1G. If the move is based solely on football, the SEC is a no-brainer. Academics favor the B1G, and to us football junkies, that cannot outweigh the football argument; right?
Think of the next realignment not as happening in 2024, but as just begining then. The universities go forward from that time into an unseen future. What do we know about the future of football? We know that it is fragile because of exestential threats, primarily due to concussions. Football represents 80% of the athletic budgets and it could go away suddenly, at any time. Without football are sports even that important anymore? Can soccer fill the void? Can basketball become a Fall and Winter sport?
Next, consider a future in which brick and mortar universities go the way of brick and mortar bookstores. Only the most valued institutions in each state will be kept alive. They will be the ones with extensive STEM programs which require labs and other infrastructure for medicine, physics, engineering, and yes, agriculture. Liberal arts, even law can be delivered online to thousands of students at once. The coming G5 mobile technology will accelerate this process. If you don't have a campus, you likely won't have athletics. How far into the future will the decision makers look?
Using these considerations, Oklahoma and Kasnsas to the B1G looks like, "I'll pass." The B1G must get Texas or simply stand pat.
BTW I have thought all along that the cable carriage fee model would have a long tail. G5 could chop that off quickly.

Good post! I would add this question, "How many non revenue sports could basketball possibly support?" I think if non revenues survive it will be via corporate sponsorship and a connection to the AOC. The future of college sports as we know them rests squarely on the shoulders of football regardless of what the hoops purists think or believe. Otherwise why would so many of them have kept football and augmented their conferences with football first schools for the added revenue.
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2019 08:04 PM by JRsec.)
07-11-2019 08:01 PM
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Post: #31
RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 08:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 07:53 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 06:25 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 07:45 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  The SEC and Big 10 make so much money that there's very few schools that make sense for them to add in any scenario.

The only Big 12 schools the SEC would take are Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas.

The only Big 12 schools the Big 10 would take are Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas.

The only other schools the SEC would take (in order): North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Virginia, and NC State.

The only other schools the Big 10 would take (in order): North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Duke, and NC State.

Unless college basketball drastically increases in TV value relative to college football, it's not going to make economic sense for either the SEC or Big Ten to add programs like Kansas or North Carolina whose value lies in basketball.

And unless the Big Ten's 2012 strategy of just grabbing cable boxes lasts well into the future, neither the Big Ten nor SEC are going to put Virginia or North Carolina schools high on their list. Clemson and Florida State, and even Miami, are more valuable for the viewers they draw to the sport that provides 80% of the TV value for college sports. And, obviously, so is Notre Dame. Clemson, FSU, and ND, along with UT and OU, are also going to be the most valuable commodities outside the Big Ten and SEC for any financial model based on getting fans to buy per-game or per-season subscriptions.

There are other schools with value, but not enough value to justify a full share of SEC or Big Ten conference revenue.

The destination of the Longhorns is very much up in the air. I give a slight betting edge to the B1G. If the move is based solely on football, the SEC is a no-brainer. Academics favor the B1G, and to us football junkies, that cannot outweigh the football argument; right?
Think of the next realignment not as happening in 2024, but as just begining then. The universities go forward from that time into an unseen future. What do we know about the future of football? We know that it is fragile because of exestential threats, primarily due to concussions. Football represents 80% of the athletic budgets and it could go away suddenly, at any time. Without football are sports even that important anymore? Can soccer fill the void? Can basketball become a Fall and Winter sport?
Next, consider a future in which brick and mortar universities go the way of brick and mortar bookstores. Only the most valued institutions in each state will be kept alive. They will be the ones with extensive STEM programs which require labs and other infrastructure for medicine, physics, engineering, and yes, agriculture. Liberal arts, even law can be delivered online to thousands of students at once. The coming G5 mobile technology will accelerate this process. If you don't have a campus, you likely won't have athletics. How far into the future will the decision makers look?
Using these considerations, Oklahoma and Kasnsas to the B1G looks like, "I'll pass." The B1G must get Texas or simply stand pat.
BTW I have thought all along that the cable carriage fee model would have a long tail. G5 could chop that off quickly.

Good post! I would add this question, "How many non revenue sports could basketball possibly support?" I think if non revenues survive it will be via corporate sponsorship and a connection to the AOC. The future of college sports as we know them rests squarely on the shoulders of football regardless of what the hoops purists think or believe. Otherwise why would so many of them have kept football and augmented their conferences with football first schools for the added revenue.

IMO the future of "Olympic" sports is in alumni or other donors financing the specific sports they care about. Football is going to keep devouring more and more money and there won't be enough left over (except maybe in the 20 wealthiest athletic departments) to support 15 or 20 other sports, unless donors step up with money earmarked for a specific sport.

As for football going away: That will be a very slow fade out at the college level (even slower at the NFL level) even though many high schools may be squeezed within the next 10 years.
07-11-2019 08:23 PM
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Post: #32
RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 05:06 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  It's baffling to me why anyone would think the Big Ten would ever take Iowa State.

Well they did take Rutgers
07-12-2019 08:40 AM
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RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 05:06 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 08:35 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  The B1G does not have a contiguous state requirement for expansion, so - in theory - they could easily take both Oklahoma/Texas without worrying about also grabbing Kansas in order to connect their states. I do agree with Stever that the next SEC TV deal will sky rocket (at least its most likely), but I do think the academic association for state universities (especially of AAU status) is a huge value in itself. I do not think that Texas would move to the B1G without another Texas-affiliated school to come along with it; and I am unsure if the B1G would take-on that demand in order to get Texas. I think Texas, long-term, is a much easier fit (if they ever were to move) for the SEC, as A&M is already present (I know the schools aren't jumping at the chance to realign currently, but that could change in the future) as well as bringing along a TCU (which would solidify the Dallas market).

For the B1G, long-term, it might very well be easier to push west and begin a raid on the PAC with Colorado. Denver is a huge market for B1G alumni, and it has been rumored that CU has been underwhelmed (like a few) with the PAC Network. I still think an Oklahoma/Kansas pairing is most likely (if there is a Big 12 raid) for the B1G (w/ Colorado and Iowa State likely if they move to 18), with Texas/OK State going to the SEC (w/ TCU and WVU likely if they move to 18).

It's baffling to me why anyone would think the Big Ten would ever take Iowa State.

It's not ideal by any stretch, since it doubles up a market that is hardly substantial; however, ISU does bring along a number of strong qualities as a complimentary (not focal) institution via expansion. For starters, it is part of the AAU and URA, for which many B1G institutions are already members. Their endowment, enrollment and alumni figures compare favorably to current B1G membership. They average over 50k in football and 14k in men's basketball, along with a comparable athletic budget as well.

ISU is definitely not a primary expansion target for the B1G, but as a secondary or tertiary candidate for a larger move? I don't think it is a stretch to see them under consideration.
07-12-2019 09:05 AM
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RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 07:45 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 03:45 AM)goofus Wrote:  If the Big Ten added Texas and Oklahoma, I am not sure what the other P5 conferences could do as a counter move.

The SEC could counter by adding TCU and Ok St. That way, they don't totally concede the Dallas and Oklahoma City Markets, if markets are still important in 2025.

The PAC expanding into the central time zone probably does not make sense without Texas. Maybe the PAC could form an alliance with the remaining Big12, staying as separate conferences but negotiate all tv and bowl contracts together. But in the end they would have to split that money among all members, so what's the point?

The ACC would not have many options, and probably should be more afraid of the SEC raiding them. But schools like UNC would not jump to SEC alone. It would have to be some kind of package deal with UNC, NCSU, Duke, FSU, Clemson And Va all being invited together, which would balloon the SEC to 20 teams. Just don't see that happening. The ACC could give Notre Dame an ultimatum, join the football conference or get out of the ACC all-together. But Notre Dame would probably call that bluff and go back to the Big East. The ACC could maybe merge with the Big 12, but what would that gain them?

Game over, man. The big ten wins.

The SEC and Big 10 make so much money that there's very few schools that make sense for them to add in any scenario.

The only Big 12 schools the SEC would take are Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas.

The only Big 12 schools the Big 10 would take are Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas.

The only other schools the SEC would take (in order): North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Virginia, and NC State.

The only other schools the Big 10 would take (in order): North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Duke, and NC State.

The SEC would jump at the chance to take both Texas and Texas Tech.

The SEC might take OU and OSU if the circumstances are right, i.e., Texas to the Big10 with OU..... SEC would likely counter to take OU and OSU since the Big would not take OSU.

The PAC might take any of Oklahoma, Texas, OSU, Tech, Kansas
(This post was last modified: 07-12-2019 10:39 AM by texoma.)
07-12-2019 10:38 AM
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Pervis_Griffith Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Fast forward to 2025...
Put me down for nothing changes ... in my opinion ...

It's more likely than not that the Big XII survives ... Texas can own the conference with their LHN, and Oklahoma is winning it, going to the playoffs frequently. If these two are happy with the status quo, they won't leave.

The Big XII may decide it makes sense to add a school or two ... but again, it's probably more likely they stand pat.

The other P5's have no reason to add other schools, with Texas and Oklahoma standing pat.

Who is the PAC gonna add that brings any value?

Why would the Big Ten dilute themselves any more, especially with members griping a bit about the last adds of Rutgers and Maryland?

Why would the SEC do anything, with the slim possibility that Texas could someday change their mind?

Ditto the ACC ... when they could dangle the "Notre Dame Deal" to Texas, why would they give up that slot to anyone else?


I think nothing happens.

Except maybe on the margins. Maybe (doubtful, but maybe) the Big XII adds two, solidifying their conference.


So put me down for nothing happens.
07-12-2019 11:38 AM
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Post: #36
RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-11-2019 08:23 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 08:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 07:53 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 06:25 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 07:45 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  The SEC and Big 10 make so much money that there's very few schools that make sense for them to add in any scenario.

The only Big 12 schools the SEC would take are Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas.

The only Big 12 schools the Big 10 would take are Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Kansas.

The only other schools the SEC would take (in order): North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Virginia, and NC State.

The only other schools the Big 10 would take (in order): North Carolina, Virginia, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Duke, and NC State.

Unless college basketball drastically increases in TV value relative to college football, it's not going to make economic sense for either the SEC or Big Ten to add programs like Kansas or North Carolina whose value lies in basketball.

And unless the Big Ten's 2012 strategy of just grabbing cable boxes lasts well into the future, neither the Big Ten nor SEC are going to put Virginia or North Carolina schools high on their list. Clemson and Florida State, and even Miami, are more valuable for the viewers they draw to the sport that provides 80% of the TV value for college sports. And, obviously, so is Notre Dame. Clemson, FSU, and ND, along with UT and OU, are also going to be the most valuable commodities outside the Big Ten and SEC for any financial model based on getting fans to buy per-game or per-season subscriptions.

There are other schools with value, but not enough value to justify a full share of SEC or Big Ten conference revenue.

The destination of the Longhorns is very much up in the air. I give a slight betting edge to the B1G. If the move is based solely on football, the SEC is a no-brainer. Academics favor the B1G, and to us football junkies, that cannot outweigh the football argument; right?
Think of the next realignment not as happening in 2024, but as just begining then. The universities go forward from that time into an unseen future. What do we know about the future of football? We know that it is fragile because of exestential threats, primarily due to concussions. Football represents 80% of the athletic budgets and it could go away suddenly, at any time. Without football are sports even that important anymore? Can soccer fill the void? Can basketball become a Fall and Winter sport?
Next, consider a future in which brick and mortar universities go the way of brick and mortar bookstores. Only the most valued institutions in each state will be kept alive. They will be the ones with extensive STEM programs which require labs and other infrastructure for medicine, physics, engineering, and yes, agriculture. Liberal arts, even law can be delivered online to thousands of students at once. The coming G5 mobile technology will accelerate this process. If you don't have a campus, you likely won't have athletics. How far into the future will the decision makers look?
Using these considerations, Oklahoma and Kasnsas to the B1G looks like, "I'll pass." The B1G must get Texas or simply stand pat.
BTW I have thought all along that the cable carriage fee model would have a long tail. G5 could chop that off quickly.

Good post! I would add this question, "How many non revenue sports could basketball possibly support?" I think if non revenues survive it will be via corporate sponsorship and a connection to the AOC. The future of college sports as we know them rests squarely on the shoulders of football regardless of what the hoops purists think or believe. Otherwise why would so many of them have kept football and augmented their conferences with football first schools for the added revenue.

IMO the future of "Olympic" sports is in alumni or other donors financing the specific sports they care about. Football is going to keep devouring more and more money and there won't be enough left over (except maybe in the 20 wealthiest athletic departments) to support 15 or 20 other sports, unless donors step up with money earmarked for a specific sport.

As for football going away: That will be a very slow fade out at the college level (even slower at the NFL level) even though many high schools may be squeezed within the next 10 years.

Definitely agree with your first paragraph. The Olympic sports really don't cost that much, but they have virtually no revenue.

Football isn't going to go away quickly. But it might not fade at all in terms of the major colleges and NFL. But I do think the bama posters point about online classes as well as the concussion issue causing some reduction in participation at the HS level means that there will be a lot of schools dropping football at the college level over the next 20-30 years. I think it happens with the smaller schools, Div II and FCS first.
07-12-2019 12:03 PM
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Post: #37
RE: Fast forward to 2025...
I don't expect any changes in 2025, unless the networks decide its ok for the Big 12 to go to 12 with BYU + 1.

As the cable model plays out, however, I wouldn't be surprised to see major changes in the mid 2030s when the ACC and SEC contracts run out. Wouldn't be surprised to see 12-16 football powers form a national conference to generate massive TV $s. That would impact every conference.
07-12-2019 12:06 PM
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Post: #38
Fast forward to 2025...
(07-12-2019 11:38 AM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  Put me down for nothing changes ... in my opinion ...

It's more likely than not that the Big XII survives ... Texas can own the conference with their LHN, and Oklahoma is winning it, going to the playoffs frequently. If these two are happy with the status quo, they won't leave.

The Big XII may decide it makes sense to add a school or two ... but again, it's probably more likely they stand pat.

The other P5's have no reason to add other schools, with Texas and Oklahoma standing pat.

Who is the PAC gonna add that brings any value?

Why would the Big Ten dilute themselves any more, especially with members griping a bit about the last adds of Rutgers and Maryland?

Why would the SEC do anything, with the slim possibility that Texas could someday change their mind?

Ditto the ACC ... when they could dangle the "Notre Dame Deal" to Texas, why would they give up that slot to anyone else?


I think nothing happens.

Except maybe on the margins. Maybe (doubtful, but maybe) the Big XII adds two, solidifying their conference.


So put me down for nothing happens.


Agree,, if anything conferences get smaller.


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07-12-2019 12:13 PM
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goofus Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Fast forward to 2025...
I don't know what will happen with future realignment, but I am sure that something will happen. I can not think of any decade in College Football where nothing happened.

Priorities shift, populations shift, new rules, new technologies. Budgets sometimes shrink. Sometimes they expand. Some have a string of good luck or sometimes its bad luck. In the end things change.
(This post was last modified: 07-12-2019 01:28 PM by goofus.)
07-12-2019 01:27 PM
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33laszlo99 Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Fast forward to 2025...
(07-12-2019 12:03 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 08:23 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 08:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 07:53 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 06:25 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Unless college basketball drastically increases in TV value relative to college football, it's not going to make economic sense for either the SEC or Big Ten to add programs like Kansas or North Carolina whose value lies in basketball.

And unless the Big Ten's 2012 strategy of just grabbing cable boxes lasts well into the future, neither the Big Ten nor SEC are going to put Virginia or North Carolina schools high on their list. Clemson and Florida State, and even Miami, are more valuable for the viewers they draw to the sport that provides 80% of the TV value for college sports. And, obviously, so is Notre Dame. Clemson, FSU, and ND, along with UT and OU, are also going to be the most valuable commodities outside the Big Ten and SEC for any financial model based on getting fans to buy per-game or per-season subscriptions.

There are other schools with value, but not enough value to justify a full share of SEC or Big Ten conference revenue.

The destination of the Longhorns is very much up in the air. I give a slight betting edge to the B1G. If the move is based solely on football, the SEC is a no-brainer. Academics favor the B1G, and to us football junkies, that cannot outweigh the football argument; right?
Think of the next realignment not as happening in 2024, but as just begining then. The universities go forward from that time into an unseen future. What do we know about the future of football? We know that it is fragile because of exestential threats, primarily due to concussions. Football represents 80% of the athletic budgets and it could go away suddenly, at any time. Without football are sports even that important anymore? Can soccer fill the void? Can basketball become a Fall and Winter sport?
Next, consider a future in which brick and mortar universities go the way of brick and mortar bookstores. Only the most valued institutions in each state will be kept alive. They will be the ones with extensive STEM programs which require labs and other infrastructure for medicine, physics, engineering, and yes, agriculture. Liberal arts, even law can be delivered online to thousands of students at once. The coming G5 mobile technology will accelerate this process. If you don't have a campus, you likely won't have athletics. How far into the future will the decision makers look?
Using these considerations, Oklahoma and Kasnsas to the B1G looks like, "I'll pass." The B1G must get Texas or simply stand pat.
BTW I have thought all along that the cable carriage fee model would have a long tail. G5 could chop that off quickly.

Good post! I would add this question, "How many non revenue sports could basketball possibly support?" I think if non revenues survive it will be via corporate sponsorship and a connection to the AOC. The future of college sports as we know them rests squarely on the shoulders of football regardless of what the hoops purists think or believe. Otherwise why would so many of them have kept football and augmented their conferences with football first schools for the added revenue.

IMO the future of "Olympic" sports is in alumni or other donors financing the specific sports they care about. Football is going to keep devouring more and more money and there won't be enough left over (except maybe in the 20 wealthiest athletic departments) to support 15 or 20 other sports, unless donors step up with money earmarked for a specific sport.

As for football going away: That will be a very slow fade out at the college level (even slower at the NFL level) even though many high schools may be squeezed within the next 10 years.

Definitely agree with your first paragraph. The Olympic sports really don't cost that much, but they have virtually no revenue.

Football isn't going to go away quickly. But it might not fade at all in terms of the major colleges and NFL. But I do think the bama posters point about online classes as well as the concussion issue causing some reduction in participation at the HS level means that there will be a lot of schools dropping football at the college level over the next 20-30 years. I think it happens with the smaller schools, Div II and FCS first.

At all levels of football: professional, college, and youth, organizations live with the threat of a class action lawsuit regarding concussions. If a ruling falls against football for a humongous settlement, liability insurance could become so costly as to be virtually unobtainable. This is how the game could end suddenly rather than just diminishing over time. Yes, there has already been some litigation and the game has survived. But let's not underestimate the omnipresent risk.
07-12-2019 01:33 PM
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