Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
Author Message
usffan Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,980
Joined: Mar 2004
Reputation: 307
I Root For: USF
Location:
Post: #1
Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(figured that warning was warranted after I called out another poster for their practice of dumping War and Peace into multiple threads)

There are plenty of people who keep commenting about whether or not UConn is abandoning their P5 aspirations vs. enhancing them going forward. But I think it's worth examining the pathways for ANY program (let alone UConn) to get a P5 invitation.

I will preface this by saying that, in my opinion, there exists something of a pecking order even among the P5. There is no way that we would come to a consensus about what that full pecking order is, but I think we can at the least agree that the SEC and the B1G are the least likely to ever lose members to another conference poaching them, and furthermore it is as close to an iron clad guarantee that, if either decided to expand further, they are VERY unlikely to expand by inviting members who are not currently among the current P5. So in reality, we're only considering the likelihood that the ACC, Big XII or Pac-12 decide to add new schools to the P5 club.

Given the changes in the conference championship requirements, there is little incentive for any of these conferences to expand. Adding a new school without a concomitant reduction in payout means that the new school has to be bringing in value = each school's current payout x that conference's membership number plus 1. So adding a school to the Big XII, for example, would mean the new school is bringing in ~$50MMx11 = $550MM/year. I think we can all agree that no school exists that comes close to that right now, and it's silly to think that somehow UConn's football, which we're currently debating about whether it's worth $7MM/year, would somehow be worth close to 100x that amount to the ACC.

So the only other driver for this would be if one of these conferences gets poached by another conference. And the reason why I struggle to imagine that happening is that there is no obvious financial incentive to either the SEC or the B1G to raid the ACC, Big XII or Pac-12 at this time. Leaving the only driver for this some type of change to the CFP that results in a consolidation of a P5 into a P4 (note, not saying that will happen, but that's the only driver I can see that would result in any realistic realignment).

So, in effect, there will not be ANY school joining the P5 under the current system. At least I can't see any path for it.

USFFan
06-28-2019 03:13 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply

Gamecock Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,834
Joined: Oct 2011
Reputation: 125
I Root For: South Carolina
Location:
Post: #2
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
The Big Ten did technically add an AAC team in Rutgers, although that conference still had the auto bid at the time.

The only likely scenario IMO is if the Big 12 decides to call up some version of UCF/USF/Cincinnati/Houston/Memphis/BYU and that would only happen if they lost UT/OU or if they thought that was coming in the very near future.
(This post was last modified: 06-28-2019 03:52 PM by Gamecock.)
06-28-2019 03:50 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
DavidSt Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 12,490
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation: 167
I Root For: ATU, P7
Location:
Post: #3
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
The ACC northeast fans of Boston College, Syracuse and Pittsburgh do not think they belong in the ACC since it is mostly a southeast conference. If the schools listened to the fans and alum? We may have seen a northeast P6 conferences. We may have seen a Boise State instead of Colorado in the PAC 12. It is why football attendance have gone down in the ACC, AAC, and PAC 12. The Big East football should have spilt from the C7 way before 2010 and added schools. ACC do have an issue with 3 of their schools sitting on an island by their own. UConn, UMass, Buffalo and West Virginia could help the ACC on the long run or the northern teams will bolt.
06-28-2019 04:05 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
GoldenWarrior11 Online
All American
*

Posts: 2,539
Joined: Jul 2015
Reputation: 220
I Root For: Marquette, BE
Location: Chicago
Post: #4
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
A P5 invitation to a G5 member is not impossible, but very, very unlikely unless there are shifts within the P5 (creating a P4). Assuming Texas/Oklahoma hold the cards on whether another realignment cycle begins, it's quite possible the P5 membership remains in tact through the next decade. The Big 12 is still being paid handsomely on the power level, and there has been nothing (yet) to indicate that Texas/Oklahoma would want to become a secondary decision maker in a new conference. While the PAC has had its noticeable share of bad PR stories with regards to organization, it is still unlikely that any of them try and move given the academic and historical associations that many of them share. The ACC has a GOR, which discourages any departures there. It would be a huge shock if any member willingly decided to leave either the B1G or SEC. Notre Dame is also very pleased with their arrangement, so they aren't looking to start making waves now.

Within the G5, there are also only a select number of programs that will likely be considered for a potential move-up, and they include BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF and USF. Everyone else outside of that exclusive group is likely to be on the outside looking in.
06-28-2019 04:06 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
DavidSt Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 12,490
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation: 167
I Root For: ATU, P7
Location:
Post: #5
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-28-2019 04:06 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  A P5 invitation to a G5 member is not impossible, but very, very unlikely unless there are shifts within the P5 (creating a P4). Assuming Texas/Oklahoma hold the cards on whether another realignment cycle begins, it's quite possible the P5 membership remains in tact through the next decade. The Big 12 is still being paid handsomely on the power level, and there has been nothing (yet) to indicate that Texas/Oklahoma would want to become a secondary decision maker in a new conference. While the PAC has had its noticeable share of bad PR stories with regards to organization, it is still unlikely that any of them try and move given the academic and historical associations that many of them share. The ACC has a GOR, which discourages any departures there. It would be a huge shock if any member willingly decided to leave either the B1G or SEC. Notre Dame is also very pleased with their arrangement, so they aren't looking to start making waves now.

Within the G5, there are also only a select number of programs that will likely be considered for a potential move-up, and they include BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF and USF. Everyone else outside of that exclusive group is likely to be on the outside looking in.

PAC 12 can't get the Texhoma 4 so Boise State, Hawaii, UNR, San Diego State, Colorado State and New Mexico are their short list. The fans would like the 1st 4 mentioned in the PAC 12, but they have been soured to having Colorado in the PAC 12.
06-28-2019 04:11 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
loki_the_bubba Online
All American
*

Posts: 3,772
Joined: Jul 2010
Reputation: 167
I Root For: Rice Owls
Location:
Post: #6
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-28-2019 04:06 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  A P5 invitation to a G5 member is not impossible, but very, very unlikely unless there are shifts within the P5 (creating a P4). Assuming Texas/Oklahoma hold the cards on whether another realignment cycle begins, it's quite possible the P5 membership remains in tact through the next decade. The Big 12 is still being paid handsomely on the power level, and there has been nothing (yet) to indicate that Texas/Oklahoma would want to become a secondary decision maker in a new conference. While the PAC has had its noticeable share of bad PR stories with regards to organization, it is still unlikely that any of them try and move given the academic and historical associations that many of them share. The ACC has a GOR, which discourages any departures there. It would be a huge shock if any member willingly decided to leave either the B1G or SEC. Notre Dame is also very pleased with their arrangement, so they aren't looking to start making waves now.

Within the G5, there are also only a select number of programs that will likely be considered for a potential move-up, and they include BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF and USF. Everyone else outside of that exclusive group is likely to be on the outside looking in.

A P5 to P4 transition would make it even harder for a move-up. In fact I believe it would be a contraction. Schools like Baylor or Iowa State could be on the outside looking in.
06-28-2019 04:38 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply

usffan Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,980
Joined: Mar 2004
Reputation: 307
I Root For: USF
Location:
Post: #7
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-28-2019 04:38 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  
(06-28-2019 04:06 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  A P5 invitation to a G5 member is not impossible, but very, very unlikely unless there are shifts within the P5 (creating a P4). Assuming Texas/Oklahoma hold the cards on whether another realignment cycle begins, it's quite possible the P5 membership remains in tact through the next decade. The Big 12 is still being paid handsomely on the power level, and there has been nothing (yet) to indicate that Texas/Oklahoma would want to become a secondary decision maker in a new conference. While the PAC has had its noticeable share of bad PR stories with regards to organization, it is still unlikely that any of them try and move given the academic and historical associations that many of them share. The ACC has a GOR, which discourages any departures there. It would be a huge shock if any member willingly decided to leave either the B1G or SEC. Notre Dame is also very pleased with their arrangement, so they aren't looking to start making waves now.

Within the G5, there are also only a select number of programs that will likely be considered for a potential move-up, and they include BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF and USF. Everyone else outside of that exclusive group is likely to be on the outside looking in.

A P5 to P4 transition would make it even harder for a move-up. In fact I believe it would be a contraction. Schools like Baylor or Iowa State could would be on the outside looking in.

FTFY

I think you're both right. GoldenWarrior11 said (which reflects my own thoughts) that it's EXTREMELY unlikely that any P5 conference adds anybody from outside. And I agree with you - any significant raiding would likely lead to a situation where some schools are no longer in what would now be viewed as a P4. In that event, those schools would likely raid the current G5 conferences (likely the AAC and/or the MWC depending on who those schools are) to create the remnants of that remaining conference. In other words, the road map that led to the creation of the AAC. That new conference would be P5 in name only until such time that the CFP changes again.

In other words, it's impossible to envision a situation where a non-P5 team gets elevated to the top tier. Louisville, Rutgers and WVU got the last raft off of the Titanic.

USFFan
06-28-2019 04:50 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Stugray2 Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,320
Joined: Jan 2017
Reputation: 159
I Root For: tOSU SJSU Stan'
Location: South Bay Area CA
Post: #8
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
I think we all agree the B12 replacing OU and/or Texas (in my opinion probably both) is the only near term P5 additions

If one looks at budgets and resources, BYU, SMU, CSU, UCF and USF are in the strongest position. Houston and Cincy are there, but at great deficit spending. You could add Memphis (heavily leveraged as well) and Boise State (sound budgeting like the directional Florida schools) to that list but their Academic Indexes are simply too weak for consideration - hence no B12 roses. Rice has the financial resources, but the athletic department is just too weak and their fan base is too small. SMU has the bad fortune of being in DFW, the same metro as much higher profile TCU.

So your list whittles down to BYU, CSU, UCF, USF, Cincy and Houston. I am not comfortable handicapping these today, as the choice wont be made until 2024 or even early 2025. A couple of these will go on runs and look strong, a couple will under perform at precisely the wrong time, coaches will come and go, also ADs and Presidents. Too many variables to handicap. But it should be clear in 2023 who is pointing up and who is not (I'll handicap then).

One can see a scenario where OU and KU go off together to the B1G or SEC, and Texas to the ACC, and the B12 take 3 or even 5 of those 6. Or a scenario where only OU leaves and they take just 1.

The problem for these schools is that the more of them are taken the weaker the B12 is perceived and the greater the chance it loses it's "P" designation and access. All those schools would root for only 1 or at most 2 openings, and that they be the one chosen. It's a game of musical chairs.

I don't see an opening after. Football is beginning the long slow decline, and Basketball is going to profoundly change with the NBA opening up a different path to professional careers. So college sports environment is going to be very different in the 2030s. Football could be in it's twilight, and basketball mostly devoid of pre-professionals, more a marginal "second chance" league. That makes the whole concept of a power school questionable.

2025 will likely be the last chance.
06-28-2019 05:04 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
P5PACSEC Offline
Special Teams
*

Posts: 725
Joined: Jul 2018
Reputation: 23
I Root For: P5- Texas Tech
Location: Austin
Post: #9
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-28-2019 04:05 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The ACC northeast fans of Boston College, Syracuse and Pittsburgh do not think they belong in the ACC since it is mostly a southeast conference. If the schools listened to the fans and alum? We may have seen a northeast P6 conferences. We may have seen a Boise State instead of Colorado in the PAC 12. It is why football attendance have gone down in the ACC, AAC, and PAC 12. The Big East football should have spilt from the C7 way before 2010 and added schools. ACC do have an issue with 3 of their schools sitting on an island by their own. UConn, UMass, Buffalo and West Virginia could help the ACC on the long run or the northern teams will bolt.

Is North Carolina Southeast? Is Virginia southeast?
06-28-2019 05:13 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
P5PACSEC Offline
Special Teams
*

Posts: 725
Joined: Jul 2018
Reputation: 23
I Root For: P5- Texas Tech
Location: Austin
Post: #10
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-28-2019 04:11 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(06-28-2019 04:06 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  A P5 invitation to a G5 member is not impossible, but very, very unlikely unless there are shifts within the P5 (creating a P4). Assuming Texas/Oklahoma hold the cards on whether another realignment cycle begins, it's quite possible the P5 membership remains in tact through the next decade. The Big 12 is still being paid handsomely on the power level, and there has been nothing (yet) to indicate that Texas/Oklahoma would want to become a secondary decision maker in a new conference. While the PAC has had its noticeable share of bad PR stories with regards to organization, it is still unlikely that any of them try and move given the academic and historical associations that many of them share. The ACC has a GOR, which discourages any departures there. It would be a huge shock if any member willingly decided to leave either the B1G or SEC. Notre Dame is also very pleased with their arrangement, so they aren't looking to start making waves now.

Within the G5, there are also only a select number of programs that will likely be considered for a potential move-up, and they include BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF and USF. Everyone else outside of that exclusive group is likely to be on the outside looking in.

PAC 12 can't get the Texhoma 4 so Boise State, Hawaii, UNR, San Diego State, Colorado State and New Mexico are their short list. The fans would like the 1st 4 mentioned in the PAC 12, but they have been soured to having Colorado in the PAC 12.

Do you have a credible link that details the PAC 12's "short list"? The fans can want Michigan and Ohio St but University Presidents make those decisions.
06-28-2019 05:18 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
DavidSt Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 12,490
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation: 167
I Root For: ATU, P7
Location:
Post: #11
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-28-2019 05:13 PM)P5PACSEC Wrote:  
(06-28-2019 04:05 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The ACC northeast fans of Boston College, Syracuse and Pittsburgh do not think they belong in the ACC since it is mostly a southeast conference. If the schools listened to the fans and alum? We may have seen a northeast P6 conferences. We may have seen a Boise State instead of Colorado in the PAC 12. It is why football attendance have gone down in the ACC, AAC, and PAC 12. The Big East football should have spilt from the C7 way before 2010 and added schools. ACC do have an issue with 3 of their schools sitting on an island by their own. UConn, UMass, Buffalo and West Virginia could help the ACC on the long run or the northern teams will bolt.

Is North Carolina Southeast? Is Virginia southeast?


They are mid-Atlantic, but still considered the southeast.
06-28-2019 05:22 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply

DavidSt Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 12,490
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation: 167
I Root For: ATU, P7
Location:
Post: #12
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-28-2019 04:50 PM)usffan Wrote:  
(06-28-2019 04:38 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  
(06-28-2019 04:06 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  A P5 invitation to a G5 member is not impossible, but very, very unlikely unless there are shifts within the P5 (creating a P4). Assuming Texas/Oklahoma hold the cards on whether another realignment cycle begins, it's quite possible the P5 membership remains in tact through the next decade. The Big 12 is still being paid handsomely on the power level, and there has been nothing (yet) to indicate that Texas/Oklahoma would want to become a secondary decision maker in a new conference. While the PAC has had its noticeable share of bad PR stories with regards to organization, it is still unlikely that any of them try and move given the academic and historical associations that many of them share. The ACC has a GOR, which discourages any departures there. It would be a huge shock if any member willingly decided to leave either the B1G or SEC. Notre Dame is also very pleased with their arrangement, so they aren't looking to start making waves now.

Within the G5, there are also only a select number of programs that will likely be considered for a potential move-up, and they include BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF and USF. Everyone else outside of that exclusive group is likely to be on the outside looking in.

A P5 to P4 transition would make it even harder for a move-up. In fact I believe it would be a contraction. Schools like Baylor or Iowa State could would be on the outside looking in.

FTFY

I think you're both right. GoldenWarrior11 said (which reflects my own thoughts) that it's EXTREMELY unlikely that any P5 conference adds anybody from outside. And I agree with you - any significant raiding would likely lead to a situation where some schools are no longer in what would now be viewed as a P4. In that event, those schools would likely raid the current G5 conferences (likely the AAC and/or the MWC depending on who those schools are) to create the remnants of that remaining conference. In other words, the road map that led to the creation of the AAC. That new conference would be P5 in name only until such time that the CFP changes again.

In other words, it's impossible to envision a situation where a non-P5 team gets elevated to the top tier. Louisville, Rutgers and WVU got the last raft off of the Titanic.

USFFan


The problem is already costing schools in the P5 a lot of money as is when you have schools in the P5 that are not even close to each other. No matter how much money that sports media networks give them, it may not be enough, and they have to allow G5 schools in to help ease the cost of travel. Boston College is really hurting as is when their fan base for football games are just like UConn's.
06-28-2019 05:26 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Wedge Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 15,036
Joined: May 2010
Reputation: 569
I Root For: California
Location: Bear Territory
Post: #13
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
It's like the Underpants Gnomes business plan from "South Park":

Phase 1: Spend twice as much money on athletics as the athletic department actually generates.

Phase 2: ?

Phase 3: P5 invitation!



06-28-2019 06:00 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Bronco'14 Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,468
Joined: Aug 2012
Reputation: 15
I Root For: WMU Broncos
Location: Grand Rapids, MI
Post: #14
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
I'd be shocked. What's more likely is the P5 becomes the P4 or P3 by inviting other P5 schools.

You need:
Were you good on a national level 40 years ago?
Have you won a National Championship?

If you weren't or haven't, you're screwed.
(This post was last modified: 06-28-2019 07:25 PM by Bronco'14.)
06-28-2019 07:25 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
33laszlo99 Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 209
Joined: Jun 2014
Reputation: 23
I Root For: Bama
Location:
Post: #15
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-28-2019 03:13 PM)usffan Wrote:  (figured that warning was warranted after I called out another poster for their practice of dumping War and Peace into multiple threads)

There are plenty of people who keep commenting about whether or not UConn is abandoning their P5 aspirations vs. enhancing them going forward. But I think it's worth examining the pathways for ANY program (let alone UConn) to get a P5 invitation.

I will preface this by saying that, in my opinion, there exists something of a pecking order even among the P5. There is no way that we would come to a consensus about what that full pecking order is, but I think we can at the least agree that the SEC and the B1G are the least likely to ever lose members to another conference poaching them, and furthermore it is as close to an iron clad guarantee that, if either decided to expand further, they are VERY unlikely to expand by inviting members who are not currently among the current P5. So in reality, we're only considering the likelihood that the ACC, Big XII or Pac-12 decide to add new schools to the P5 club.

Given the changes in the conference championship requirements, there is little incentive for any of these conferences to expand. Adding a new school without a concomitant reduction in payout means that the new school has to be bringing in value = each school's current payout x that conference's membership number plus 1. So adding a school to the Big XII, for example, would mean the new school is bringing in ~$50MMx11 = $550MM/year. I think we can all agree that no school exists that comes close to that right now, and it's silly to think that somehow UConn's football, which we're currently debating about whether it's worth $7MM/year, would somehow be worth close to 100x that amount to the ACC.

So the only other driver for this would be if one of these conferences gets poached by another conference. And the reason why I struggle to imagine that happening is that there is no obvious financial incentive to either the SEC or the B1G to raid the ACC, Big XII or Pac-12 at this time. Leaving the only driver for this some type of change to the CFP that results in a consolidation of a P5 into a P4 (note, not saying that will happen, but that's the only driver I can see that would result in any realistic realignment).

So, in effect, there will not be ANY school joining the P5 under the current system. At least I can't see any path for it.

USFFan

I suggest that you reconsider you formula (fourth paragraph, "Given the chance..." ) for valuing an expansion candidate. The candidate need only earn enough to conver its own payout share without diminishing the payout to the other ten tems. So the new school need only be worth $50 million per year, not $550 million.
06-28-2019 07:49 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
33laszlo99 Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 209
Joined: Jun 2014
Reputation: 23
I Root For: Bama
Location:
Post: #16
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-28-2019 04:11 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(06-28-2019 04:06 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  A P5 invitation to a G5 member is not impossible, but very, very unlikely unless there are shifts within the P5 (creating a P4). Assuming Texas/Oklahoma hold the cards on whether another realignment cycle begins, it's quite possible the P5 membership remains in tact through the next decade. The Big 12 is still being paid handsomely on the power level, and there has been nothing (yet) to indicate that Texas/Oklahoma would want to become a secondary decision maker in a new conference. While the PAC has had its noticeable share of bad PR stories with regards to organization, it is still unlikely that any of them try and move given the academic and historical associations that many of them share. The ACC has a GOR, which discourages any departures there. It would be a huge shock if any member willingly decided to leave either the B1G or SEC. Notre Dame is also very pleased with their arrangement, so they aren't looking to start making waves now.

Within the G5, there are also only a select number of programs that will likely be considered for a potential move-up, and they include BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF and USF. Everyone else outside of that exclusive group is likely to be on the outside looking in.

PAC 12 can't get the Texhoma 4 so Boise State, Hawaii, UNR, San Diego State, Colorado State and New Mexico are their short list. The fans would like the 1st 4 mentioned in the PAC 12, but they have been soured to having Colorado in the PAC 12.

I'll go out on a limb and declare that the PAC12 short list is waaaaay shorter than this. David, which of these schools do you suppose would get the PAC12 a pay raise? The PAC12 needs money. Why haven't they added all of these gems?
(This post was last modified: 06-28-2019 07:58 PM by 33laszlo99.)
06-28-2019 07:57 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply

Hokie Mark Online
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 16,672
Joined: Sep 2011
Reputation: 632
I Root For: VT, ACC teams
Location: Charlotte, NC
Post: #17
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-28-2019 07:49 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  
(06-28-2019 03:13 PM)usffan Wrote:  (figured that warning was warranted after I called out another poster for their practice of dumping War and Peace into multiple threads)

There are plenty of people who keep commenting about whether or not UConn is abandoning their P5 aspirations vs. enhancing them going forward. But I think it's worth examining the pathways for ANY program (let alone UConn) to get a P5 invitation.

I will preface this by saying that, in my opinion, there exists something of a pecking order even among the P5. There is no way that we would come to a consensus about what that full pecking order is, but I think we can at the least agree that the SEC and the B1G are the least likely to ever lose members to another conference poaching them, and furthermore it is as close to an iron clad guarantee that, if either decided to expand further, they are VERY unlikely to expand by inviting members who are not currently among the current P5. So in reality, we're only considering the likelihood that the ACC, Big XII or Pac-12 decide to add new schools to the P5 club.

Given the changes in the conference championship requirements, there is little incentive for any of these conferences to expand. Adding a new school without a concomitant reduction in payout means that the new school has to be bringing in value = each school's current payout x that conference's membership number plus 1. So adding a school to the Big XII, for example, would mean the new school is bringing in ~$50MMx11 = $550MM/year. I think we can all agree that no school exists that comes close to that right now, and it's silly to think that somehow UConn's football, which we're currently debating about whether it's worth $7MM/year, would somehow be worth close to 100x that amount to the ACC.

So the only other driver for this would be if one of these conferences gets poached by another conference. And the reason why I struggle to imagine that happening is that there is no obvious financial incentive to either the SEC or the B1G to raid the ACC, Big XII or Pac-12 at this time. Leaving the only driver for this some type of change to the CFP that results in a consolidation of a P5 into a P4 (note, not saying that will happen, but that's the only driver I can see that would result in any realistic realignment).

So, in effect, there will not be ANY school joining the P5 under the current system. At least I can't see any path for it.

USFFan

I suggest that you reconsider you formula (fourth paragraph, "Given the chance..." ) for valuing an expansion candidate. The candidate need only earn enough to conver its own payout share without diminishing the payout to the other ten tems. So the new school need only be worth $50 million per year, not $550 million.

I was thinking the same thing, though I will add that the current members need an incentive, so yes, they do need to bring in more than their own share -- probably something like $2M X #current members in addition to their own share.
06-28-2019 07:58 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
33laszlo99 Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 209
Joined: Jun 2014
Reputation: 23
I Root For: Bama
Location:
Post: #18
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-28-2019 04:50 PM)usffan Wrote:  
(06-28-2019 04:38 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  
(06-28-2019 04:06 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  A P5 invitation to a G5 member is not impossible, but very, very unlikely unless there are shifts within the P5 (creating a P4). Assuming Texas/Oklahoma hold the cards on whether another realignment cycle begins, it's quite possible the P5 membership remains in tact through the next decade. The Big 12 is still being paid handsomely on the power level, and there has been nothing (yet) to indicate that Texas/Oklahoma would want to become a secondary decision maker in a new conference. While the PAC has had its noticeable share of bad PR stories with regards to organization, it is still unlikely that any of them try and move given the academic and historical associations that many of them share. The ACC has a GOR, which discourages any departures there. It would be a huge shock if any member willingly decided to leave either the B1G or SEC. Notre Dame is also very pleased with their arrangement, so they aren't looking to start making waves now.

Within the G5, there are also only a select number of programs that will likely be considered for a potential move-up, and they include BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF and USF. Everyone else outside of that exclusive group is likely to be on the outside looking in.

A P5 to P4 transition would make it even harder for a move-up. In fact I believe it would be a contraction. Schools like Baylor or Iowa State could would be on the outside looking in.

FTFY

I think you're both right. GoldenWarrior11 said (which reflects my own thoughts) that it's EXTREMELY unlikely that any P5 conference adds anybody from outside. And I agree with you - any significant raiding would likely lead to a situation where some schools are no longer in what would now be viewed as a P4. In that event, those schools would likely raid the current G5 conferences (likely the AAC and/or the MWC depending on who those schools are) to create the remnants of that remaining conference. In other words, the road map that led to the creation of the AAC. That new conference would be P5 in name only until such time that the CFP changes again.

In other words, it's impossible to envision a situation where a non-P5 team gets elevated to the top tier. Louisville, Rutgers and WVU got the last raft off of the Titanic.

USFFan

It's true 'fan. How we talk about realignment these days seems to depend on one's view of the stability of the Big XII, post 2024. If you believe that Texas, Oklahoma and "the rest" will all want to continue as members of the Big XII, then, nevermind. But if one suspects that the fat-cats of that conference will abandon ship, then there is much to gossip about.
I think the top teams will leave the Big XII in respose to the financial incentives presented by the two leading conferences and by the media companies. Even those who say the Big XII is solid for the long haul have doubts, which keeps them engaged here.
So what happens to the Big XII if Oklahoma and Texas depart? There are still serious financial benfits to keeping the Big XII afloat. That conference, regardless of its membership is designated by the NCAA as an "autonomy conference." They can offer cost of attendance money to recruits, and there are other expenses beyond educational costs that they can cover, which G5 (so called) conferences cannot. They will remain together in order to collect a big bag of exit fees from the emigrees. There are post season bowl games whose contracts specify Big XII teams. Other G5 schools may be attracted to these benefits. So for a while, the Big XII will be squattin' in tall cotton.
But they will eventually need to seek a media contract for a conference that no longer includes: Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Colorado or Missouri (now there's a conference!). They will have some lovely G5 replacement schools. But given that most of the newbies may be AAC renegades, they become the new AAC, the almost P5. The bowl contracts wiil eventually expire, the NCAA will reconsider "autonomy" based on athletic budgets, and we will be arguing about autobids for the P4 champions.
What do you believe about the Big XII?
06-28-2019 09:01 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
DFW HOYA Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,945
Joined: May 2004
Reputation: 72
I Root For: The Hoyas
Location: Dallas, TX
Post: #19
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-28-2019 05:04 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  SMU has the bad fortune of being in DFW, the same metro as much higher profile TCU.

Dallas-Ft. Worth is the fourth largest media market in the nation. It cam certainly support two major college teams, only that while TCU has been resolute in its climb up the ladder, SMU is still living under a cloud from 1987 and is institutionally unwilling to commit to be the kind of program it is capable of.

It's easy to dismiss a #2 finish in 1983 and crowds of 50K at Texas Stadium as "well, they were cheating" (which is a misnomer, since they didn't cheat at the games but in the same recruiting tactics at most SWC schools other than Rice) but the point was they once had a fan base and a program which didn't shy away from scheduling major opponents. The home lineup for 2019? North Texas, Texas State, Tulsa, Temple, ECU, Tulane. No wonder SMU ranks 94th in Div. I in average attendance, about the same as UConn.
(This post was last modified: 06-28-2019 09:07 PM by DFW HOYA.)
06-28-2019 09:04 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
bill dazzle Offline
Water Engineer
*

Posts: 82
Joined: Aug 2016
Reputation: 18
I Root For: Multiple
Location:
Post: #20
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-28-2019 04:06 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  A P5 invitation to a G5 member is not impossible, but very, very unlikely unless there are shifts within the P5 (creating a P4). Assuming Texas/Oklahoma hold the cards on whether another realignment cycle begins, it's quite possible the P5 membership remains in tact through the next decade. The Big 12 is still being paid handsomely on the power level, and there has been nothing (yet) to indicate that Texas/Oklahoma would want to become a secondary decision maker in a new conference. While the PAC has had its noticeable share of bad PR stories with regards to organization, it is still unlikely that any of them try and move given the academic and historical associations that many of them share. The ACC has a GOR, which discourages any departures there. It would be a huge shock if any member willingly decided to leave either the B1G or SEC. Notre Dame is also very pleased with their arrangement, so they aren't looking to start making waves now.

Within the G5, there are also only a select number of programs that will likely be considered for a potential move-up, and they include BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF and USF. Everyone else outside of that exclusive group is likely to be on the outside looking in.

Agree with this fully.

Bill Dazzle
a.k.a. The Rival Son
06-28-2019 09:08 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 2 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2019 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2019 MyBB Group.