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Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-28-2019 07:57 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  
(06-28-2019 04:11 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(06-28-2019 04:06 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  A P5 invitation to a G5 member is not impossible, but very, very unlikely unless there are shifts within the P5 (creating a P4). Assuming Texas/Oklahoma hold the cards on whether another realignment cycle begins, it's quite possible the P5 membership remains in tact through the next decade. The Big 12 is still being paid handsomely on the power level, and there has been nothing (yet) to indicate that Texas/Oklahoma would want to become a secondary decision maker in a new conference. While the PAC has had its noticeable share of bad PR stories with regards to organization, it is still unlikely that any of them try and move given the academic and historical associations that many of them share. The ACC has a GOR, which discourages any departures there. It would be a huge shock if any member willingly decided to leave either the B1G or SEC. Notre Dame is also very pleased with their arrangement, so they aren't looking to start making waves now.

Within the G5, there are also only a select number of programs that will likely be considered for a potential move-up, and they include BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF and USF. Everyone else outside of that exclusive group is likely to be on the outside looking in.

PAC 12 can't get the Texhoma 4 so Boise State, Hawaii, UNR, San Diego State, Colorado State and New Mexico are their short list. The fans would like the 1st 4 mentioned in the PAC 12, but they have been soured to having Colorado in the PAC 12.

I'll go out on a limb and declare that the PAC12 short list is waaaaay shorter than this. David, which of these schools do you suppose would get the PAC12 a pay raise? The PAC12 needs money. Why haven't they added all of these gems?


They added Colorado, and they have been a bunch of turds on the field losing to FCS school like Sacramento State. That was the worst turd gem that the PAC 12 added.
06-28-2019 11:18 PM
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TodgeRodge Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
1. as pointed out the $550 million calculation is incorrect

the Big 12 will be paying out about $46 million per year with no third tier included at the end of their contract

a school would need to cover that 100% and then add at least $12 million more (because they are not going to go to 11) and if two schools managed to do that then that would be about $2 million more for the Big 12 members for adding two teams or $48 million and that is if the best deal the Big 12 can get is a deal that pays them basically even money from their past deal plus $2 million more for adding two teams

so a school would need to add about $60 million each to even be considered

2. the difficulty with this is that would need to be TV MONEY because there is not going to be an increase in the $50+ million paid for the NCAA football playoffs nor will there be an increase in the (2 out of 3 years) $40 million Sugar Bowl money

so if you do the math on that it is (($50 million X 3) + ($40 million X 2)) / 3 or about $77 million a year to the conference in money not directly from a TV contract

so a media partner would need to be paying the freight for adding two teams and the cost to the conference members of that in relation to the NY6 and NCAA playoff credits

and no to anyone that wants to suggest this getting another team in "random bowl game" (that pays $1.2 million a year that is eaten up mostly with expenses) does not cover that it covers the cost of having another team in the conference going to a lower level bowl

because again even if the new members rotated going to the NY6 bowl every year that does not bring new money to the conference it just bumps the other members all down a spot in the bowl order until one team fills the last lower level bowl

3. the next issue is NCAA basketball credits the Big 12 does extremely well on those as it is now....new members would have NONE

even if they were earning them at a high rate that would only barely cover them being equal to the already high earning Big 12 or if they were just both amazing it might add $300,000 or so which does not come close to covering the gap created by factor #2

so really you need two teams that combined bring in about $120 million combined and really more than that because that would be the Big 12 flat lining on their next media deal and not even getting one that starts at the same $46 million they paid out the prior year and then scales to the end of the deal

so if the Big 12 got a deal that paid $1 million more than the prior year to start and scaled $1 million per year for X number of years then the new members would need to start tacking on that additional money to their needed value


and doing the math for what it would take to get the Big 12 to lose two teams so that others can move up just looks less realistic

A. you are now talking about the top earners in the Big 12 moving elsewhere so Texas will be making $46 million plus $15 million in the final year of the Big 12 contract so a total of $61 million.....and of course that $15 million from the LHN is locked in past the end of the current Big 12 media deal

OU will probably be making about $52 or more depending on how their third tier deal plays out

so now you have the Big 12 currently paying out $36.5 million while the PAC 12 and ACC pay out $30 million or so and that is excluding the LHN and Sooner Sports money that those two top earning teams earn

it makes ZERO sense to pretend that you take two teams one earning $51.5 million and another earning $42.5 or $43.5 million in a 10 team conference and instead place them in a 12 or 14 team conference and then bump up 12 or 14 other teams to $51.5 million (if you want Texas) or $43.5 million (if you want just OU)

that is horrible math and not realistic to the market to think that you have valued those other conferences at a lower per member value for a larger group of teams, but somehow it makes sense to pay massive amounts of new money to those 12 or 14 teams because you moved one or two teams in with them

B. and no "cable rates" will do nothing.....if the ACC is going to get decent money from their new network much less good money they they will already need to be getting high cable fees from most all of the USA to do so and even if they get great money it will probably only catch them up to the Big 12 excluding any LHN or Sooner Sports money so there is still a huge gap to fill there

and even comcrap in Houston did not pay "in market" rates for the SECn SECn SECn because aggy was added so adding Texas and OU is not a guarantee of that and doing just that cramming networks and charging "in state" is why people are cutting the cord in droves

C. then there is the same issue with Rose or Orange Bowl money and NCAA playoff money and NCAA credits.....Texas and OU will bring no new money to any conference for any of that and they will have to start earning NCAA credits to just cover themselves much less add to the conference and that does not come close to covering the additional splits of Rose or Orange Bowl money or NCAA playoff credits

D. so the math that the OP did with the $550 million (that was incorrect in relation to moving a G5 to the Big 12) is probably closer to correct for moving Texas or OU to another P5 conference

lets use the PAC 12 as an example.....$50 million football playoffs.....$40 million Rose two out of 3 years = $6.38 million per team per year on average with 12 teams in the PAC 12

bump that to 14 that is $5.48 so a loss of $824,000 per team per year X 12 teams or a total of $9.9 million per year (we will call it $10)

so there is $5 million a year each Texas and OU need to bring over and above covering their own payouts for everything else

then you have Texas making $51 million per year at the end of the Big 12 contract while the PAC 12 will probably be at about $37 (they are at $30 now and the deal scales just like the Big 12 deal does)

so there is $14 million needed just to get Texas to even money for moving....and the PAC 10 did have uneven revenue sharing in the past and USC and UCLA did make demands on the other schools with the new contract, but no chance they let Texas or Texas and OU have uneven revenues

so now you need to bump 12 other teams up $14 million EACH and then you need to bump OU up about $7 million

so now you have $14 X 12 + $7 + $10 (the money to cover Rose and playoff money cuts) so that totals $180 million per year needed to get Texas and OU to the PAC 12 and just break even on the money paid for all those programs in the final year of their current contracts

then there are the exit fees even if Texas and OU are able to skate away only having the final year distribution withheld that is $46 million each or $92 million.....that is 1 time not yearly, but that still adds up that is another $9.2 million on a 10 year contact so now $189.2 million per year needed to get Texas and OU to the PAC 12

E. here is where everyone says "money saved by dumping Big 12 teams and now paying them nothing" (as if those teams will simply get nothing

not to mention it is HIGHLY unlikely that Texas and OU will want to be in a 14 team conference on a far east Island in the crap half of that conference playing teams their fans never cared about in the Big 12 (and barely in the Big 8) or that they never cared about at all

so if you add in OkState and Texas Tech the cost just goes through the roof

plus you are looking at $189.2 million PER YEAR to move just Texas and OU so if you divide that by 8 that is $23.65 million per year

or just about what the Big 12 will be earning in strictly TV money in the final year of the contract

so basically you would be break even on money moving Texas and OU to the PAC 12 and paying the PAC 12 even money to what Texas will be earning and that is pretending like you pay the others in the Big 12 zero after that and pretending that Texas and OU would go alone

and for that you get a lot less content and a lot more convoluted conferences that will probably not last long

it would make much more financial sense to go the other way and add 4 schools to the 10 already making a lot more money

and if you do the math of Texas and OU to the ACC the numbers are probably worse and to the SEC SEC SEC probably not good at all and to the Big 10 still probably not good and the Big 10 will have the buy in that Texas will not be eating and if Texas does not eat it then OU will not eat it.....and even if the Big 10 puts it in to shut up NU someone will be laying Texas and OU to not eat that buy in
06-28-2019 11:39 PM
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P5PACSEC Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-28-2019 11:18 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(06-28-2019 07:57 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  
(06-28-2019 04:11 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(06-28-2019 04:06 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  A P5 invitation to a G5 member is not impossible, but very, very unlikely unless there are shifts within the P5 (creating a P4). Assuming Texas/Oklahoma hold the cards on whether another realignment cycle begins, it's quite possible the P5 membership remains in tact through the next decade. The Big 12 is still being paid handsomely on the power level, and there has been nothing (yet) to indicate that Texas/Oklahoma would want to become a secondary decision maker in a new conference. While the PAC has had its noticeable share of bad PR stories with regards to organization, it is still unlikely that any of them try and move given the academic and historical associations that many of them share. The ACC has a GOR, which discourages any departures there. It would be a huge shock if any member willingly decided to leave either the B1G or SEC. Notre Dame is also very pleased with their arrangement, so they aren't looking to start making waves now.

Within the G5, there are also only a select number of programs that will likely be considered for a potential move-up, and they include BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF and USF. Everyone else outside of that exclusive group is likely to be on the outside looking in.

PAC 12 can't get the Texhoma 4 so Boise State, Hawaii, UNR, San Diego State, Colorado State and New Mexico are their short list. The fans would like the 1st 4 mentioned in the PAC 12, but they have been soured to having Colorado in the PAC 12.

I'll go out on a limb and declare that the PAC12 short list is waaaaay shorter than this. David, which of these schools do you suppose would get the PAC12 a pay raise? The PAC12 needs money. Why haven't they added all of these gems?


They added Colorado, and they have been a bunch of turds on the field losing to FCS school like Sacramento State. That was the worst turd gem that the PAC 12 added.

I truly feel sorry for you. I feel like I'm watching Rainman with Dustin Hoffman.

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(This post was last modified: 06-29-2019 12:15 AM by P5PACSEC.)
06-29-2019 12:11 AM
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33laszlo99 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-28-2019 11:39 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  1. as pointed out the $550 million calculation is incorrect

the Big 12 will be paying out about $46 million per year with no third tier included at the end of their contract

a school would need to cover that 100% and then add at least $12 million more (because they are not going to go to 11) and if two schools managed to do that then that would be about $2 million more for the Big 12 members for adding two teams or $48 million and that is if the best deal the Big 12 can get is a deal that pays them basically even money from their past deal plus $2 million more for adding two teams

so a school would need to add about $60 million each to even be considered

2. the difficulty with this is that would need to be TV MONEY because there is not going to be an increase in the $50+ million paid for the NCAA football playoffs nor will there be an increase in the (2 out of 3 years) $40 million Sugar Bowl money

so if you do the math on that it is (($50 million X 3) + ($40 million X 2)) / 3 or about $77 million a year to the conference in money not directly from a TV contract

so a media partner would need to be paying the freight for adding two teams and the cost to the conference members of that in relation to the NY6 and NCAA playoff credits

and no to anyone that wants to suggest this getting another team in "random bowl game" (that pays $1.2 million a year that is eaten up mostly with expenses) does not cover that it covers the cost of having another team in the conference going to a lower level bowl

because again even if the new members rotated going to the NY6 bowl every year that does not bring new money to the conference it just bumps the other members all down a spot in the bowl order until one team fills the last lower level bowl

3. the next issue is NCAA basketball credits the Big 12 does extremely well on those as it is now....new members would have NONE

even if they were earning them at a high rate that would only barely cover them being equal to the already high earning Big 12 or if they were just both amazing it might add $300,000 or so which does not come close to covering the gap created by factor #2

so really you need two teams that combined bring in about $120 million combined and really more than that because that would be the Big 12 flat lining on their next media deal and not even getting one that starts at the same $46 million they paid out the prior year and then scales to the end of the deal

so if the Big 12 got a deal that paid $1 million more than the prior year to start and scaled $1 million per year for X number of years then the new members would need to start tacking on that additional money to their needed value


and doing the math for what it would take to get the Big 12 to lose two teams so that others can move up just looks less realistic

A. you are now talking about the top earners in the Big 12 moving elsewhere so Texas will be making $46 million plus $15 million in the final year of the Big 12 contract so a total of $61 million.....and of course that $15 million from the LHN is locked in past the end of the current Big 12 media deal

OU will probably be making about $52 or more depending on how their third tier deal plays out

so now you have the Big 12 currently paying out $36.5 million while the PAC 12 and ACC pay out $30 million or so and that is excluding the LHN and Sooner Sports money that those two top earning teams earn

it makes ZERO sense to pretend that you take two teams one earning $51.5 million and another earning $42.5 or $43.5 million in a 10 team conference and instead place them in a 12 or 14 team conference and then bump up 12 or 14 other teams to $51.5 million (if you want Texas) or $43.5 million (if you want just OU)

that is horrible math and not realistic to the market to think that you have valued those other conferences at a lower per member value for a larger group of teams, but somehow it makes sense to pay massive amounts of new money to those 12 or 14 teams because you moved one or two teams in with them

B. and no "cable rates" will do nothing.....if the ACC is going to get decent money from their new network much less good money they they will already need to be getting high cable fees from most all of the USA to do so and even if they get great money it will probably only catch them up to the Big 12 excluding any LHN or Sooner Sports money so there is still a huge gap to fill there

and even comcrap in Houston did not pay "in market" rates for the SECn SECn SECn because aggy was added so adding Texas and OU is not a guarantee of that and doing just that cramming networks and charging "in state" is why people are cutting the cord in droves

C. then there is the same issue with Rose or Orange Bowl money and NCAA playoff money and NCAA credits.....Texas and OU will bring no new money to any conference for any of that and they will have to start earning NCAA credits to just cover themselves much less add to the conference and that does not come close to covering the additional splits of Rose or Orange Bowl money or NCAA playoff credits

D. so the math that the OP did with the $550 million (that was incorrect in relation to moving a G5 to the Big 12) is probably closer to correct for moving Texas or OU to another P5 conference

lets use the PAC 12 as an example.....$50 million football playoffs.....$40 million Rose two out of 3 years = $6.38 million per team per year on average with 12 teams in the PAC 12

bump that to 14 that is $5.48 so a loss of $824,000 per team per year X 12 teams or a total of $9.9 million per year (we will call it $10)

so there is $5 million a year each Texas and OU need to bring over and above covering their own payouts for everything else

then you have Texas making $51 million per year at the end of the Big 12 contract while the PAC 12 will probably be at about $37 (they are at $30 now and the deal scales just like the Big 12 deal does)

so there is $14 million needed just to get Texas to even money for moving....and the PAC 10 did have uneven revenue sharing in the past and USC and UCLA did make demands on the other schools with the new contract, but no chance they let Texas or Texas and OU have uneven revenues

so now you need to bump 12 other teams up $14 million EACH and then you need to bump OU up about $7 million

so now you have $14 X 12 + $7 + $10 (the money to cover Rose and playoff money cuts) so that totals $180 million per year needed to get Texas and OU to the PAC 12 and just break even on the money paid for all those programs in the final year of their current contracts

then there are the exit fees even if Texas and OU are able to skate away only having the final year distribution withheld that is $46 million each or $92 million.....that is 1 time not yearly, but that still adds up that is another $9.2 million on a 10 year contact so now $189.2 million per year needed to get Texas and OU to the PAC 12

E. here is where everyone says "money saved by dumping Big 12 teams and now paying them nothing" (as if those teams will simply get nothing

not to mention it is HIGHLY unlikely that Texas and OU will want to be in a 14 team conference on a far east Island in the crap half of that conference playing teams their fans never cared about in the Big 12 (and barely in the Big 8) or that they never cared about at all

so if you add in OkState and Texas Tech the cost just goes through the roof

plus you are looking at $189.2 million PER YEAR to move just Texas and OU so if you divide that by 8 that is $23.65 million per year

or just about what the Big 12 will be earning in strictly TV money in the final year of the contract

so basically you would be break even on money moving Texas and OU to the PAC 12 and paying the PAC 12 even money to what Texas will be earning and that is pretending like you pay the others in the Big 12 zero after that and pretending that Texas and OU would go alone

and for that you get a lot less content and a lot more convoluted conferences that will probably not last long

it would make much more financial sense to go the other way and add 4 schools to the 10 already making a lot more money

and if you do the math of Texas and OU to the ACC the numbers are probably worse and to the SEC SEC SEC probably not good at all and to the Big 10 still probably not good and the Big 10 will have the buy in that Texas will not be eating and if Texas does not eat it then OU will not eat it.....and even if the Big 10 puts it in to shut up NU someone will be laying Texas and OU to not eat that buy in

Wow, you've got some really good arguments there. I would not try to dispute them outright, though like all things "realignment" your math is based on a lot of speculation. So is mine. I can readily agree that moving Texas and Oklahoma to the PAC 12 or ACC would be senseless because those two conferences are earning less media money than the Big XII; unworkable.
Another fact I think should always be noted is that Texas could form a conference with all the state universities in the State of Texas and be entirely financially viable. They will always be flush with money, so whatever might motivate them to move will have to be in addition to big bucks. But money still matters. It always matters.
Now I'll speculate. The SEC and the B1G are not the only two parties who would like to separate Oklahoma and Texas from the Big XII. ESPN groused every time a G5 school was promoted to a P5 conference. Rutgers, TCU, Pitt, Syaracuse, etc. How much was ESPN paying for these schools media rights in their old conference compared to what the rate is today. At best these schools could be making AAC money today had they not been added to P5 conferences. In the last few years it has amounted to hundreds of millions of dollars.
In each conference you will find duds that are being overpaid simply because of the longstanding alliances they have with their conferences. ESPN can't really do anything about it. But they did disuade the Big XII from adding teams #11 and #12 because they didn't want to pay for two more promotions. And when the Big XII media deal expires, it will be an opportunity to actually reduce the number of schools being paid at the highest level. The conference without OK and TX would not likely fall immdiately to AAC level money. But look at the conference without the two principal players. Is it a compelling combination of football/athletic brands and advertising footprint? I'm not disparaging the schools themselves or the athletic programs. I'm looking at what they offer to ESPN or Fox that those media companies don't already have.
The B1G and the SEC will both come a-courting. The B1G media payout was 54.7 in 2018. What will that look like by 2023 (the last year of their deal)? The new contract begining in 2024 will be interesting because we may see new media companies involved (I know, speculation). The SEC's current deal is trailing close behind the B1G, and they rework their Tier 1 deal begining in 2024 as well. This adds up to a financial tug-o-war for those two football thouroughbreds. Maybe they will resist the overtures... maybe.
06-29-2019 01:18 AM
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loki_the_bubba Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
I've finally come up with a scenario where there could actually be four promotions to the P%. It's very very unlikely. But in some scenario either Texas OR Oklahoma decides to leave the other behind. The remainer wants to save the B12, not blow it up. Let's say it's Oklahoma. The B12 is now at nine. The TV landscape six years from now is sufficiently different that they are now incented to go to 12. They pick up Houston, Cincy, and one of the UxF twins. If it's Texas remaining they probably take both Florida schools and leave Houston out. If the school that leaves is Texas going indy we stop there. If the leaving school is joining a conference it unbalances that conference. They may grab a school from a weaker P5 (they're the stronger they got either UT or OU). The conference that gets raided adds a fourth G5. Who that school is depends on who's been raided.

Likelihood: 0.01%
06-29-2019 08:54 AM
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Post: #26
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-28-2019 07:49 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  
(06-28-2019 03:13 PM)usffan Wrote:  (figured that warning was warranted after I called out another poster for their practice of dumping War and Peace into multiple threads)

There are plenty of people who keep commenting about whether or not UConn is abandoning their P5 aspirations vs. enhancing them going forward. But I think it's worth examining the pathways for ANY program (let alone UConn) to get a P5 invitation.

I will preface this by saying that, in my opinion, there exists something of a pecking order even among the P5. There is no way that we would come to a consensus about what that full pecking order is, but I think we can at the least agree that the SEC and the B1G are the least likely to ever lose members to another conference poaching them, and furthermore it is as close to an iron clad guarantee that, if either decided to expand further, they are VERY unlikely to expand by inviting members who are not currently among the current P5. So in reality, we're only considering the likelihood that the ACC, Big XII or Pac-12 decide to add new schools to the P5 club.

Given the changes in the conference championship requirements, there is little incentive for any of these conferences to expand. Adding a new school without a concomitant reduction in payout means that the new school has to be bringing in value = each school's current payout x that conference's membership number plus 1. So adding a school to the Big XII, for example, would mean the new school is bringing in ~$50MMx11 = $550MM/year. I think we can all agree that no school exists that comes close to that right now, and it's silly to think that somehow UConn's football, which we're currently debating about whether it's worth $7MM/year, would somehow be worth close to 100x that amount to the ACC.

So the only other driver for this would be if one of these conferences gets poached by another conference. And the reason why I struggle to imagine that happening is that there is no obvious financial incentive to either the SEC or the B1G to raid the ACC, Big XII or Pac-12 at this time. Leaving the only driver for this some type of change to the CFP that results in a consolidation of a P5 into a P4 (note, not saying that will happen, but that's the only driver I can see that would result in any realistic realignment).

So, in effect, there will not be ANY school joining the P5 under the current system. At least I can't see any path for it.

USFFan

I suggest that you reconsider you formula (fourth paragraph, "Given the chance..." ) for valuing an expansion candidate. The candidate need only earn enough to conver its own payout share without diminishing the payout to the other ten tems. So the new school need only be worth $50 million per year, not $550 million.

Wow - it's no wonder my wife does the finances in our family!

[Image: sprintone_brainfart_dribbble.png]

Clearly I was off by about a log unit, but as Todge subsequently says, it's still going to take a school that's going to add roughly 10x what the current AAC schools got in their latest deal. Or, put another way, closer to what ESPN is paying the entire AAC for a year, but for a single school. I don't see any P5 school rising to that level, so the original thesis here (that nobody's getting promoted barring a desperation move from a current P5 conference that's being raided by one or more of the others) still holds.

Which, by the way, is why I think UConn made the right choice for themselves. If you don't see a path forward to a full P5 membership, being in the Big East might result in a lower gross income, but in the long run probably results in a higher net income. But based on what you pointed out, take my fiscal projections with a grain of salt!

USFFan
06-29-2019 08:58 AM
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zoocrew Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
I’d be shocked if anyone other than these 8 moved up.

UCF - No brainer.
USF - Another great add especially in combo.
Cincy - All around solid addition for obvious reasons.
Temple - Not on an island if WV and Cincy are in the conference plus Philly and their pro stadium are incredibly easy to get too anyway especially since a plane ride is a plane ride.
Memphis - Academics may hurt but otherwise no brainer.
Houston - No brainer. May not want another Texas school but should.
CSU - The wildcard. Land grant without athletic success that bridges to BYU with the budget, name brand, and new stadium to fit in a P5/tweener.
BYU - Far flung geography and things that need to be ironed out but worth it for many reasons already outlined.
06-29-2019 08:59 AM
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usffan Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-28-2019 09:01 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  
(06-28-2019 04:50 PM)usffan Wrote:  
(06-28-2019 04:38 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  
(06-28-2019 04:06 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  A P5 invitation to a G5 member is not impossible, but very, very unlikely unless there are shifts within the P5 (creating a P4). Assuming Texas/Oklahoma hold the cards on whether another realignment cycle begins, it's quite possible the P5 membership remains in tact through the next decade. The Big 12 is still being paid handsomely on the power level, and there has been nothing (yet) to indicate that Texas/Oklahoma would want to become a secondary decision maker in a new conference. While the PAC has had its noticeable share of bad PR stories with regards to organization, it is still unlikely that any of them try and move given the academic and historical associations that many of them share. The ACC has a GOR, which discourages any departures there. It would be a huge shock if any member willingly decided to leave either the B1G or SEC. Notre Dame is also very pleased with their arrangement, so they aren't looking to start making waves now.

Within the G5, there are also only a select number of programs that will likely be considered for a potential move-up, and they include BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, UCF and USF. Everyone else outside of that exclusive group is likely to be on the outside looking in.

A P5 to P4 transition would make it even harder for a move-up. In fact I believe it would be a contraction. Schools like Baylor or Iowa State could would be on the outside looking in.

FTFY

I think you're both right. GoldenWarrior11 said (which reflects my own thoughts) that it's EXTREMELY unlikely that any P5 conference adds anybody from outside. And I agree with you - any significant raiding would likely lead to a situation where some schools are no longer in what would now be viewed as a P4. In that event, those schools would likely raid the current G5 conferences (likely the AAC and/or the MWC depending on who those schools are) to create the remnants of that remaining conference. In other words, the road map that led to the creation of the AAC. That new conference would be P5 in name only until such time that the CFP changes again.

In other words, it's impossible to envision a situation where a non-P5 team gets elevated to the top tier. Louisville, Rutgers and WVU got the last raft off of the Titanic.

USFFan

It's true 'fan. How we talk about realignment these days seems to depend on one's view of the stability of the Big XII, post 2024. If you believe that Texas, Oklahoma and "the rest" will all want to continue as members of the Big XII, then, nevermind. But if one suspects that the fat-cats of that conference will abandon ship, then there is much to gossip about.
I think the top teams will leave the Big XII in respose to the financial incentives presented by the two leading conferences and by the media companies. Even those who say the Big XII is solid for the long haul have doubts, which keeps them engaged here.
So what happens to the Big XII if Oklahoma and Texas depart? There are still serious financial benfits to keeping the Big XII afloat. That conference, regardless of its membership is designated by the NCAA as an "autonomy conference." They can offer cost of attendance money to recruits, and there are other expenses beyond educational costs that they can cover, which G5 (so called) conferences cannot. They will remain together in order to collect a big bag of exit fees from the emigrees. There are post season bowl games whose contracts specify Big XII teams. Other G5 schools may be attracted to these benefits. So for a while, the Big XII will be squattin' in tall cotton.
But they will eventually need to seek a media contract for a conference that no longer includes: Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Colorado or Missouri (now there's a conference!). They will have some lovely G5 replacement schools. But given that most of the newbies may be AAC renegades, they become the new AAC, the almost P5. The bowl contracts wiil eventually expire, the NCAA will reconsider "autonomy" based on athletic budgets, and we will be arguing about autobids for the P4 champions.
What do you believe about the Big XII?

Based on the way the Pac-16 scenario fell apart (no need to rehash, but there's plenty of reports about the political wrangling within Texas to dictate which schools were involved) coupled with what Todge has written about the full details of the Big XII's rules, I have real trouble seeing a scenario where Texas and/or Oklahoma actually get poached. I think both like having people speculate about them, but they pretty well get to retain special nation status (cough Longhorn Network cough) within a mostly regionally sensible footprint (WVU being the outlier). And with the way ESPN and Fox shut down their play at expansion the last time, I don't see them adding anybody when their contracts come up the next time. I know people will say "what about the Arizona schools," but they both rely far more on California than Texas for students and alumni support, so I don't think that's practical.

USFFan
06-29-2019 09:12 AM
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DavidSt Offline
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RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-29-2019 08:59 AM)zoocrew Wrote:  I’d be shocked if anyone other than these 8 moved up.

UCF - No brainer.
USF - Another great add especially in combo.
Cincy - All around solid addition for obvious reasons.
Temple - Not on an island if WV and Cincy are in the conference plus Philly and their pro stadium are incredibly easy to get too anyway especially since a plane ride is a plane ride.
Memphis - Academics may hurt but otherwise no brainer.
Houston - No brainer. May not want another Texas school but should.
CSU - The wildcard. Land grant without athletic success that bridges to BYU with the budget, name brand, and new stadium to fit in a P5/tweener.
BYU - Far flung geography and things that need to be ironed out but worth it for many reasons already outlined.


Boise State is now being called the Flag Ship university in the state of Idaho since the state's lawmakers stripped them of that title. It could explained why they went R2 status in less than 5 years out of nowhere.
06-29-2019 09:57 PM
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quo vadis Online
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RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-29-2019 09:57 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(06-29-2019 08:59 AM)zoocrew Wrote:  I’d be shocked if anyone other than these 8 moved up.

UCF - No brainer.
USF - Another great add especially in combo.
Cincy - All around solid addition for obvious reasons.
Temple - Not on an island if WV and Cincy are in the conference plus Philly and their pro stadium are incredibly easy to get too anyway especially since a plane ride is a plane ride.
Memphis - Academics may hurt but otherwise no brainer.
Houston - No brainer. May not want another Texas school but should.
CSU - The wildcard. Land grant without athletic success that bridges to BYU with the budget, name brand, and new stadium to fit in a P5/tweener.
BYU - Far flung geography and things that need to be ironed out but worth it for many reasons already outlined.


Boise State is now being called the Flag Ship university in the state of Idaho since the state's lawmakers stripped them of that title. It could explained why they went R2 status in less than 5 years out of nowhere.

I think if the P5 had to call up one G5 school right now to the P5 ranks, USF would have as good a chance as anybody of getting it. Not necessarily a better chance, but I think we are firmly in the group of top 4-5 schools that would all have about an equal chance.

And importantly, I think our fundamentals might be in the top three. E.g., right now, I think we are equal with UCF as a call-up candidate, but that's with UCF having football teams that have back to back AAC championships and back-to-back NY6 bowl games, clearly better than us. If their on-field success is the same as ours, we have a better chance than them. And wins and losses can come and go.

That's a tribute to the progress the entire school has made, both academically and athletically.
06-30-2019 12:40 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-29-2019 08:54 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  I've finally come up with a scenario where there could actually be four promotions to the P%. It's very very unlikely. But in some scenario either Texas OR Oklahoma decides to leave the other behind. The remainer wants to save the B12, not blow it up. Let's say it's Oklahoma. The B12 is now at nine. The TV landscape six years from now is sufficiently different that they are now incented to go to 12. They pick up Houston, Cincy, and one of the UxF twins. If it's Texas remaining they probably take both Florida schools and leave Houston out. If the school that leaves is Texas going indy we stop there. If the leaving school is joining a conference it unbalances that conference. They may grab a school from a weaker P5 (they're the stronger they got either UT or OU). The conference that gets raided adds a fourth G5. Who that school is depends on who's been raided.

Likelihood: 0.01%

The Big 12 isn't salvageable for OU if UT leaves. Barely salvageable for UT if OU leaves, and even in that scenario would probably require the Big 12 bringing in at least 1 or 2 teams from existing P5 conferences, e.g., Arkansas switching conferences with Oklahoma, and that is so unlikely it's not even worth considering.

Still, the possibility of either UT or OU leaving the Big 12 in the near term is very overblown by rumormongers, IMO. UT doesn't need the money, they'll move only if they see very good non-monetary reasons, and I don't think any other conference wants to bring in OU without UT and then see UT go to one of their competitors.

The best scenario for any of the other power conferences is to bring in UT; the second-best scenario for any of these conferences is for UT to stay where they are and not make another conference stronger.
06-30-2019 01:09 PM
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Post: #32
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-29-2019 08:58 AM)usffan Wrote:  
(06-28-2019 07:49 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  
(06-28-2019 03:13 PM)usffan Wrote:  (figured that warning was warranted after I called out another poster for their practice of dumping War and Peace into multiple threads)

There are plenty of people who keep commenting about whether or not UConn is abandoning their P5 aspirations vs. enhancing them going forward. But I think it's worth examining the pathways for ANY program (let alone UConn) to get a P5 invitation.

I will preface this by saying that, in my opinion, there exists something of a pecking order even among the P5. There is no way that we would come to a consensus about what that full pecking order is, but I think we can at the least agree that the SEC and the B1G are the least likely to ever lose members to another conference poaching them, and furthermore it is as close to an iron clad guarantee that, if either decided to expand further, they are VERY unlikely to expand by inviting members who are not currently among the current P5. So in reality, we're only considering the likelihood that the ACC, Big XII or Pac-12 decide to add new schools to the P5 club.

Given the changes in the conference championship requirements, there is little incentive for any of these conferences to expand. Adding a new school without a concomitant reduction in payout means that the new school has to be bringing in value = each school's current payout x that conference's membership number plus 1. So adding a school to the Big XII, for example, would mean the new school is bringing in ~$50MMx11 = $550MM/year. I think we can all agree that no school exists that comes close to that right now, and it's silly to think that somehow UConn's football, which we're currently debating about whether it's worth $7MM/year, would somehow be worth close to 100x that amount to the ACC.

So the only other driver for this would be if one of these conferences gets poached by another conference. And the reason why I struggle to imagine that happening is that there is no obvious financial incentive to either the SEC or the B1G to raid the ACC, Big XII or Pac-12 at this time. Leaving the only driver for this some type of change to the CFP that results in a consolidation of a P5 into a P4 (note, not saying that will happen, but that's the only driver I can see that would result in any realistic realignment).

So, in effect, there will not be ANY school joining the P5 under the current system. At least I can't see any path for it.

USFFan

I suggest that you reconsider you formula (fourth paragraph, "Given the chance..." ) for valuing an expansion candidate. The candidate need only earn enough to conver its own payout share without diminishing the payout to the other ten tems. So the new school need only be worth $50 million per year, not $550 million.

Wow - it's no wonder my wife does the finances in our family!

[Image: sprintone_brainfart_dribbble.png]

Clearly I was off by about a log unit, but as Todge subsequently says, it's still going to take a school that's going to add roughly 10x what the current AAC schools got in their latest deal. Or, put another way, closer to what ESPN is paying the entire AAC for a year, but for a single school. I don't see any P5 school rising to that level, so the original thesis here (that nobody's getting promoted barring a desperation move from a current P5 conference that's being raided by one or more of the others) still holds.

Which, by the way, is why I think UConn made the right choice for themselves. If you don't see a path forward to a full P5 membership, being in the Big East might result in a lower gross income, but in the long run probably results in a higher net income. But based on what you pointed out, take my fiscal projections with a grain of salt!

USFFan


When it comes to a realignment---I agree, no AAC schools are going to be a trigger for P5 expansion. However, Texas and Oklahoma probably do bring that 60+ million kind of value. Movement involving those two could cause realignment, and then the ripples of that move could eventually affect an AAC school.
06-30-2019 01:18 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-30-2019 01:09 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-29-2019 08:54 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  I've finally come up with a scenario where there could actually be four promotions to the P%. It's very very unlikely. But in some scenario either Texas OR Oklahoma decides to leave the other behind. The remainer wants to save the B12, not blow it up. Let's say it's Oklahoma. The B12 is now at nine. The TV landscape six years from now is sufficiently different that they are now incented to go to 12. They pick up Houston, Cincy, and one of the UxF twins. If it's Texas remaining they probably take both Florida schools and leave Houston out. If the school that leaves is Texas going indy we stop there. If the leaving school is joining a conference it unbalances that conference. They may grab a school from a weaker P5 (they're the stronger they got either UT or OU). The conference that gets raided adds a fourth G5. Who that school is depends on who's been raided.

Likelihood: 0.01%

The Big 12 isn't salvageable for OU if UT leaves. Barely salvageable for UT if OU leaves, and even in that scenario would probably require the Big 12 bringing in at least 1 or 2 teams from existing P5 conferences, e.g., Arkansas switching conferences with Oklahoma, and that is so unlikely it's not even worth considering.

Still, the possibility of either UT or OU leaving the Big 12 in the near term is very overblown by rumormongers, IMO. UT doesn't need the money, they'll move only if they see very good non-monetary reasons, and I don't think any other conference wants to bring in OU without UT and then see UT go to one of their competitors.

The best scenario for any of the other power conferences is to bring in UT; the second-best scenario for any of these conferences is for UT to stay where they are and not make another conference stronger.


If OU leaves? Texas would add G5 schools to the conference, and give them a share of the Longhorn profits. The G5 schools would agree to the terms and join the conference. It would be their ticket to get into the CFPs that way.
06-30-2019 02:32 PM
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Post: #34
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-30-2019 02:32 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(06-30-2019 01:09 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-29-2019 08:54 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  I've finally come up with a scenario where there could actually be four promotions to the P%. It's very very unlikely. But in some scenario either Texas OR Oklahoma decides to leave the other behind. The remainer wants to save the B12, not blow it up. Let's say it's Oklahoma. The B12 is now at nine. The TV landscape six years from now is sufficiently different that they are now incented to go to 12. They pick up Houston, Cincy, and one of the UxF twins. If it's Texas remaining they probably take both Florida schools and leave Houston out. If the school that leaves is Texas going indy we stop there. If the leaving school is joining a conference it unbalances that conference. They may grab a school from a weaker P5 (they're the stronger they got either UT or OU). The conference that gets raided adds a fourth G5. Who that school is depends on who's been raided.

Likelihood: 0.01%

The Big 12 isn't salvageable for OU if UT leaves. Barely salvageable for UT if OU leaves, and even in that scenario would probably require the Big 12 bringing in at least 1 or 2 teams from existing P5 conferences, e.g., Arkansas switching conferences with Oklahoma, and that is so unlikely it's not even worth considering.

Still, the possibility of either UT or OU leaving the Big 12 in the near term is very overblown by rumormongers, IMO. UT doesn't need the money, they'll move only if they see very good non-monetary reasons, and I don't think any other conference wants to bring in OU without UT and then see UT go to one of their competitors.

The best scenario for any of the other power conferences is to bring in UT; the second-best scenario for any of these conferences is for UT to stay where they are and not make another conference stronger.


If OU leaves? Texas would add G5 schools to the conference, and give them a share of the Longhorn profits. The G5 schools would agree to the terms and join the conference. It would be their ticket to get into the CFPs that way.

Please provide a link that backs up your claim.

UT will not add anymore G5 schools and they will never give them a share of LHN revenue. However, if UT and OU leave, the remaining Big 12 schools will pick the best from the AAC and MWC.
06-30-2019 07:02 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-30-2019 07:02 PM)P5PACSEC Wrote:  
(06-30-2019 02:32 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(06-30-2019 01:09 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(06-29-2019 08:54 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  I've finally come up with a scenario where there could actually be four promotions to the P%. It's very very unlikely. But in some scenario either Texas OR Oklahoma decides to leave the other behind. The remainer wants to save the B12, not blow it up. Let's say it's Oklahoma. The B12 is now at nine. The TV landscape six years from now is sufficiently different that they are now incented to go to 12. They pick up Houston, Cincy, and one of the UxF twins. If it's Texas remaining they probably take both Florida schools and leave Houston out. If the school that leaves is Texas going indy we stop there. If the leaving school is joining a conference it unbalances that conference. They may grab a school from a weaker P5 (they're the stronger they got either UT or OU). The conference that gets raided adds a fourth G5. Who that school is depends on who's been raided.

Likelihood: 0.01%

The Big 12 isn't salvageable for OU if UT leaves. Barely salvageable for UT if OU leaves, and even in that scenario would probably require the Big 12 bringing in at least 1 or 2 teams from existing P5 conferences, e.g., Arkansas switching conferences with Oklahoma, and that is so unlikely it's not even worth considering.

Still, the possibility of either UT or OU leaving the Big 12 in the near term is very overblown by rumormongers, IMO. UT doesn't need the money, they'll move only if they see very good non-monetary reasons, and I don't think any other conference wants to bring in OU without UT and then see UT go to one of their competitors.

The best scenario for any of the other power conferences is to bring in UT; the second-best scenario for any of these conferences is for UT to stay where they are and not make another conference stronger.


If OU leaves? Texas would add G5 schools to the conference, and give them a share of the Longhorn profits. The G5 schools would agree to the terms and join the conference. It would be their ticket to get into the CFPs that way.

Please provide a link that backs up your claim.

UT will not add anymore G5 schools and they will never give them a share of LHN revenue. However, if UT and OU leave, the remaining Big 12 schools will pick the best from the AAC and MWC.


Not full share, just enough like $10 million a piece, and Texas takes the rest. It would be uneven share of the Big 12 adding G5 schools, but would be more to keep the G5 schools quiet as loyal employees. It could help get The Long Horn Network on more TVs.
07-02-2019 03:09 AM
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Post: #36
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(06-28-2019 04:05 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  The ACC northeast fans of Boston College, Syracuse and Pittsburgh do not think they belong in the ACC since it is mostly a southeast conference. If the schools listened to the fans and alum? We may have seen a northeast P6 conferences. We may have seen a Boise State instead of Colorado in the PAC 12. It is why football attendance have gone down in the ACC, AAC, and PAC 12. The Big East football should have spilt from the C7 way before 2010 and added schools. ACC do have an issue with 3 of their schools sitting on an island by their own. UConn, UMass, Buffalo and West Virginia could help the ACC on the long run or the northern teams will bolt.

Attendance going down in the ACC? Not true.
In 2018 the ACC and the Big 12 were the only conferences in the P5 to show increases in average conference attendance.
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_r...e/2018.pdf

Conference attendance includes home games and neutral
site contests between two teams in the same conference.
Independents total includes home game totals and neutral site
games between two independent teams.
No. Conference
Total
Teams Games 2018 Attend. Avg.
Change
In Avg.
1. Southeastern 14 101 7,473,374 73,994 -1,080
2. Big Ten 14 97 6,341,435 65,376 -851
3. Big 12 10 67 3,818,091 56,986 134
4. Atlantic Coast 14 91 4,442,603 48,820 378
5. Pac-12 12 78 3,622,480 46,442 -3,159



6. American 12 75 2,167,657 28,902 233
7. Mountain West 12 75 1,789,644 23,862 -1,101
8. Conference USA 14 83 1,566,570 18,874 -374
9. Sun Belt# 10 58 1,008,118 17,381 -462
07-02-2019 04:26 AM
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Post: #37
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
Some general observations.

When the Bowl Coalition began play in 1992, there were seven power conferences (conferences whose champions received automatic bids to a major bowl) consisting of 66 schools. Today, there are five power conferences consisting of 64 total schools.

Over that period, while there has obviously been a massive game of musical chairs, that's a net reduction of two schools.

Four schools in power conferences at the start of the Bowl Coalition are no longer members of a P5 conference - Houston, SMU, Rice and Temple. Only two schools that were not part of a power conference are now members of a P5 conference - Louisville and Utah.

Utah was the state flagship university from the largest states that did not have a power school at that time. That is a status that no school not already with that qualification can obtain. Basically, only three schools, UConn, Nevada and New Mexico, are flagships in states that are larger than the smallest states that already have a P5 school - West Virginia and Nebraska.

Louisville benefited from its location in a city that is near major league in size but with no major league franchises (it is a larger TV market than Buffalo, Memphis or New Orleans), being in a state with only one other power school, and having a willingness to spend extraordinary amounts on coaches and facilities (its football and basketball venues are NFL and NBA quality venues in which it is the only major tenant).

Bottom line - this club is more exclusive than Augusta National. Good luck to all, but don't hold your breath.
(This post was last modified: 07-02-2019 07:23 AM by orangefan.)
07-02-2019 07:11 AM
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Post: #38
RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(07-02-2019 07:11 AM)orangefan Wrote:  Some general observations.

When the Bowl Coalition began play in 1992, there were seven power conferences (conferences whose champions received automatic bids to a major bowl) consisting of 66 schools. Today, there are five power conferences consisting of 64 total schools.

Over that period, while there has obviously been a massive game of musical chairs, that's a net reduction of two schools.

Four schools in power conferences at the start of the Bowl Coalition are no longer members of a P5 conference - Houston, SMU, Rice and Temple. Only two schools that were not part of a power conference are now members of a P5 conference - Louisville and Utah.

Utah was the state flagship university from the largest states that did not have a power school at that time. That is a status that no school not already with that qualification can obtain. Basically, only three schools, UConn, Nevada and New Mexico, are flagships in states that are larger than the smallest states that already have a P5 school - West Virginia and Nebraska.

Louisville benefited from its location in a city that is near major league in size but with no major league franchises (it is a larger TV market than Buffalo, Memphis or New Orleans), being in a state with only one other power school, and having a willingness to spend extraordinary amounts on coaches and facilities (its football and basketball venues are NFL and NBA quality venues in which it is the only major tenant).

Bottom line - this club is more exclusive than Augusta National. Good luck to all, but don't hold your breath.

Utah also had the extraordinary political muscle of Orrin Hatch waiving his sabre at the BCS for five years behind them, and of course Louisville is still in the G5 if Maryland hadn't left the ACC for the B1G.

IMO, if any current G5 is in a P5 in the next 10 years, it will only come as "backfill", the way Louisville got the ACC bid. Close to zero chance that any P5 would pro-actively "expand" with any current G5.

We all know this, which is why fans of schools stuck in the G5 are always hopefully speculating about Big 12 implosion or PAC implosion or ACC implosion - whichever looks most likely at the time. Because only that kind of thing can give our school an opportunity.
07-02-2019 07:49 AM
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RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(07-02-2019 07:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(07-02-2019 07:11 AM)orangefan Wrote:  Some general observations.

When the Bowl Coalition began play in 1992, there were seven power conferences (conferences whose champions received automatic bids to a major bowl) consisting of 66 schools. Today, there are five power conferences consisting of 64 total schools.

Over that period, while there has obviously been a massive game of musical chairs, that's a net reduction of two schools.

Four schools in power conferences at the start of the Bowl Coalition are no longer members of a P5 conference - Houston, SMU, Rice and Temple. Only two schools that were not part of a power conference are now members of a P5 conference - Louisville and Utah.

Utah was the state flagship university from the largest states that did not have a power school at that time. That is a status that no school not already with that qualification can obtain. Basically, only three schools, UConn, Nevada and New Mexico, are flagships in states that are larger than the smallest states that already have a P5 school - West Virginia and Nebraska.

Louisville benefited from its location in a city that is near major league in size but with no major league franchises (it is a larger TV market than Buffalo, Memphis or New Orleans), being in a state with only one other power school, and having a willingness to spend extraordinary amounts on coaches and facilities (its football and basketball venues are NFL and NBA quality venues in which it is the only major tenant).

Bottom line - this club is more exclusive than Augusta National. Good luck to all, but don't hold your breath.

Utah also had the extraordinary political muscle of Orrin Hatch waiving his sabre at the BCS for five years behind them, and of course Louisville is still in the G5 if Maryland hadn't left the ACC for the B1G.

IMO, if any current G5 is in a P5 in the next 10 years, it will only come as "backfill", the way Louisville got the ACC bid. Close to zero chance that any P5 would pro-actively "expand" with any current G5.

We all know this, which is why fans of schools stuck in the G5 are always hopefully speculating about Big 12 implosion or PAC implosion or ACC implosion - whichever looks most likely at the time. Because only that kind of thing can give our school an opportunity.

One more thought - UConn is probably the most similar P5 candidate to either Utah or Louisville, and it just gave up.
07-02-2019 08:21 AM
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RE: Pathways to a P5 invitation (long post - be forewarned...)
(07-02-2019 08:21 AM)orangefan Wrote:  
(07-02-2019 07:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(07-02-2019 07:11 AM)orangefan Wrote:  Some general observations.

When the Bowl Coalition began play in 1992, there were seven power conferences (conferences whose champions received automatic bids to a major bowl) consisting of 66 schools. Today, there are five power conferences consisting of 64 total schools.

Over that period, while there has obviously been a massive game of musical chairs, that's a net reduction of two schools.

Four schools in power conferences at the start of the Bowl Coalition are no longer members of a P5 conference - Houston, SMU, Rice and Temple. Only two schools that were not part of a power conference are now members of a P5 conference - Louisville and Utah.

Utah was the state flagship university from the largest states that did not have a power school at that time. That is a status that no school not already with that qualification can obtain. Basically, only three schools, UConn, Nevada and New Mexico, are flagships in states that are larger than the smallest states that already have a P5 school - West Virginia and Nebraska.

Louisville benefited from its location in a city that is near major league in size but with no major league franchises (it is a larger TV market than Buffalo, Memphis or New Orleans), being in a state with only one other power school, and having a willingness to spend extraordinary amounts on coaches and facilities (its football and basketball venues are NFL and NBA quality venues in which it is the only major tenant).

Bottom line - this club is more exclusive than Augusta National. Good luck to all, but don't hold your breath.

Utah also had the extraordinary political muscle of Orrin Hatch waiving his sabre at the BCS for five years behind them, and of course Louisville is still in the G5 if Maryland hadn't left the ACC for the B1G.

IMO, if any current G5 is in a P5 in the next 10 years, it will only come as "backfill", the way Louisville got the ACC bid. Close to zero chance that any P5 would pro-actively "expand" with any current G5.

We all know this, which is why fans of schools stuck in the G5 are always hopefully speculating about Big 12 implosion or PAC implosion or ACC implosion - whichever looks most likely at the time. Because only that kind of thing can give our school an opportunity.

One more thought - UConn is probably the most similar P5 candidate to either Utah or Louisville, and it just gave up.


Lotsa good stuff in this thread ...

First -- to the original poster -- your warning for a long post was unnecessary, especially considering several of the replies in this thread dwarfed what you originally put out there. Congrats on being concise. Seriously. As you'll see with my manifesto entry here ...

I think OrangeFan hits on the overall status very well in his summary. There are a couple of other schools who got a taste of "P5" status for a period of time as the power conferences consolidated into 5, instead of 6. I think they should be given some additional weight in consideration. But all in all ... he's laid it out very well.

I think in the end, there's a better chance that Aresco's dream of a P6 comes true than any of the current configurations of the P5 change. Which is difficult as hell, and requires multiple schools to grow significantly into P5 worthy schools -- great attendance, great traveling contingents, improved TV ratings, etc. Not easy, "quick fixes".

But with regard to the P5 ...

The Big Ten won't lose anyone. And why would they push for 16 members now?

Ditto the SEC.

The ACC seems content to hold tight until 2036.

The PAC12 is faced with geographic constraints, that give them options that need to grow before becoming attractive.

Which leaves the Big XII. I don't see any reason why Oklahoma or Texas decide to leave the Big XII ... Oklahoma is kicking butt on the football field, and Texas is kicking butt making money and ruling the roost (or feeling like they do at least). And of any of the P5 schools - they have the best options to make a move.

I think given the static situation the P5 is in, it could allow for a P6 conference to truly emerge. But it's a long shot, and requires a LOT of effort from those fanbases.
(This post was last modified: 07-02-2019 09:21 AM by Pervis_Griffith.)
07-02-2019 09:19 AM
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