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Post: #61
RE: Commissioner Aresco Comments
(06-30-2019 10:14 PM)Lush Wrote:  
(06-30-2019 08:32 PM)Former Lurker Wrote:  
(06-30-2019 08:25 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Most likely scenario is that UC joins the Big XII leftovers.

The question is whether this conference will be a power conference. Will it keep the B12 dedicated spot in the NY6 bowls? Will it have a TV payout on par with other power conferences? ESPN and the remaining P4 will not go down without a fight.

it'd sorta be like joining the big east again

yup
 
07-01-2019 07:00 AM
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bearcatlawjd2 Online
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Post: #62
RE: Commissioner Aresco Comments
(07-01-2019 07:00 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  
(06-30-2019 10:14 PM)Lush Wrote:  
(06-30-2019 08:32 PM)Former Lurker Wrote:  
(06-30-2019 08:25 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Most likely scenario is that UC joins the Big XII leftovers.

The question is whether this conference will be a power conference. Will it keep the B12 dedicated spot in the NY6 bowls? Will it have a TV payout on par with other power conferences? ESPN and the remaining P4 will not go down without a fight.

it'd sorta be like joining the big east again

yup

Which is fine by me. Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas will be gone. Good chance Oklahoma State, WVU, and Texas Tech find a spot too.

Big Ten-Oklahoma, Kansas
SEC-Oklahoma State, WVU
ACC/Indy-Texas

Big XII/American Merger
Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Houston, SMU, Tulsa
Cincinnati, Temple, UCF, USF, Navy, Memphis, Tulane, Navy (Wichita State)

I would take this or some combination that looked like this everyday. That is a 5 to 10 bid basketball league with a better TV deal and bowl games.
 
07-01-2019 07:15 AM
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Post: #63
RE: Commissioner Aresco Comments
We can speculate until the cows come home (Appropriate example for the Big 12 don't you think?) but there are simply too many moving parts to predict future conference outcomes years from now.

Some points to consider that run counter to some thoughtful comments here:

1. 14-16 member conferences (or larger) have proven to be less than ideal for round robin play in basketball and for seeing traditional rivals in football. I know many B10 football fans who would rather see an annual football game with longstanding conference rivals each year than rotating Rutgers and Maryland into the mix.
2. The tail won't wag the dog. Four playoff spots for four P4 conferences seem like perfect symmetry but there are too many stakeholders to satisfy and four mega conferences would prove impractical (see point #1 above). I expect a 6-8 team playoff model will emerge--worth hundreds of millions of dollars more from TV... and greed drives the bus once again.
3. Does Texas really want to exit the Big 12? Richest program in college athletics, currently with a sweetheart revenue deal for the Longhorn Network. UT exercises total control of their conference decisions--unique in all of college sports. They won't see any of that as a new member in a 14-16 team SEC, Pac 12 or B10. Texas loves the courtship but not the marriage proposal.
3. If some combination of TX, OK, and KS do leave the B12, you have major players remaining who have a strong case to remain among the Power 5--land grant schools, major research players with big-time sports programs. They will not be pushed to the G5 or you'll have every politician in the heartland threatening Congressional intervention.

What will happen going forward? One man's opinion but I believe the bias will favor large, public research universities in any future expansion. If the B12 sheds a couple teams at the top, they will expand by 2-4 teams and remain a power conference, albeit the smallest in revenue and influence of the P5, but above the cut line. At that point, the top of the G5 will be severely weakened and there will be enormous upheaval in dealing with declining revenues and ever increasing costs. The analogy to the old Big East is a good one for the future B12; occupying the lowest rung of the tallest ladder. But for UC, it's all about access to compete at the highest level and that platform certainly qualifies.

What can we do to achieve that outcome? Keep giving, keep attending, keep giving a good report on Bearcat sports. We have a part to play in making UC too big to ignore on the national stage. And of course our teams winning is critical to all of that too.
 
07-01-2019 08:26 AM
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