We can have that here, right? Camps open in about six weeks.

This ESPN article looks at 17 teams, just because Caesars' sportsbook has these 17 teams at odds lower than 100-1 (+10000) to win the CFP title.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...onal-title

The article breaks teams into tiers based on the number of "ifs" each team would have to answer to be a legit contender:

First tier, only two ifs: Alabama and Clemson (obviously)

Second tier, three ifs: Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma, LSU

Third tier, four ifs: Michigan, Texas, Oregon, Florida, Washington, Notre Dame, Texas A&M

Fourth tier, five ifs: Auburn, Wisconsin, Miami

Fifth tier, we're only including them because "we always leap to proclaim a blue blood BACK!!": Nebraska

Seems about right to me, except that I'd drop LSU to the third tier. Everyone on that third tier could end up anywhere between 8-4 and 12-1. whereas for Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, and Oklahoma, they would be hugely disappointing if they lost as many as 3 games, let alone 4.

In any given year, you could use the same list without knowing anything specific about any of the teams.

(06-27-2019 03:42 PM)ken d Wrote:  In any given year, you could use the same list without knowing anything specific about any of the teams.

There's a few missing, though. USC, Florida State, Penn State...

I think Clemson only has one "if", and ESPN got it with the new defensive line. Everybody who watches CFB knows that Clemson is going to have one game per year that they have no business losing and somehow voodoo their way into winning it. Pundits will blame it as "title hangover", but it is their track record. The way they looked last year against Bama, I don't see anyone stopping them unless that aforementioned defensive line doesn't pan out. Based on recent history, that is doubtful.