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ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
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slhNavy91 Online
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Post: #41
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 01:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:48 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 11:32 AM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 11:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I haven't seen anyone claim that ESPN will try to CUT the per-school payout agreed to. I certainly haven't.

What i have combatted is the claim made by several AAC hacks that ESPN will in effect INCREASE the AAC per school payout by paying the same agreed on total money, but now divided 11 ways not 12.

Really?? You've "combated " AAC fanboys for believing the comments of the Navy AD over you and your excessive need to hate all things American. Truth be told no one actually knows what the AAC and ESPN are pow wowing about right now. I think anyone with an iota of common sense would err on the side of an actual conference AD over some predictable maniacal broken record . The real question is WTF difference does it make to you. Me personally I can say I don't give a fart about what happens to UCONN and the NBE, but I also can say that I'm happy that they are back together . If the union proves fruitful great and if it doesn't sorry for you, nothing more and nothing less. 07-coffee3

I probably have more interest in this situation than just about anyone here, because I support two schools, one in the Big East and one in the AAC.

Believe me, I *wish* the hack/fanboy interpretation of the Navy AD's off-the-cuff vague comments were more reliable than an article in Sports Business Journal, as USF would then benefit, but I can't.

Especially when the SBJ article is on the side of common sense. 07-coffee3

Do you mean the SBJ article that said "The fact that ESPN included the clause in its contract does not mean that the network definitely will open up the deal, which goes into effect with the 2020-21 season. After all, football is the main driver of these media deals, and UConn’s football performance over the last decade has been awful...Sources told me that ESPN will wait and see how -- and if -- the AAC fills the spot vacated by UConn."

Yes, that article. I don't know if ESPN will decide to "renegotiate" the AAC deal or not. I suspect not, as UConn leaving doesn't change anything substantive that was already agreed on by ESPN and the AAC. The only difference is that one of the 12 schools is now gone, so the deal will just be adjusted such that ESPN will now be paying 11 schools $7m a year rather than 12 schools $7m a year.

If the AAC does decide to add a 12th team, then that might complicate things, as ESPN might decide that the 12th team is worth more, or less, than UConn was. But I doubt any team willing to join the AAC would vary by much in value, so again, no need for a full-blown renegotiation.

Contract isn't written on a $ per school, per year basis.
ESPN total $ for AAC total inventory, with numbers of appearances (really ranges of numbers of appearances) on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2/U, and ESPN+. Look at the conference press release from deal signing.
http://theamerican.org/news/2019/3/27/ge...nsion.aspx

"Football" says "A minimum of 40 regular-season telecasts per season on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, including at least 20 across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2, which represents increased annual exposure across those ESPN networks. A similar number of Thursday and Friday contests."
and "ESPN+" says "It is estimated that between 30-35 conference-controlled football games and approximately 135 men's basketball games will be distributed annually on the cutting-edge platform. An estimated 160 conference-controlled women's basketball games, plus first and quarterfinal rounds of the women's basketball championship, will also be streamed on the digital platform. In addition, hundreds of Olympic sports events ..."

So long as the inventory can be delivered within those ranges, albeit with a handful fewer games with the absence of our last place football team and ninth place basketball....no reason to decrement from $1B over 12 years, or $83,333,333,33 per year to the conference...
(This post was last modified: 06-27-2019 02:18 PM by slhNavy91.)
06-27-2019 02:14 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #42
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 02:07 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The other thing is who seriously believes that if ESPN tells the AAC to add (insert whatever school that would accept the offer that ESPN wants) to keep the deal the same that the AAC is gonna say no?

That's very true. If ESPN says "we think a lot of Pennsyltucky Tech", then the AAC takes Pennsyltucky Tech. If ESPN is willing to keep the AAC at eleven (pro-rated), then the AAC stays at 11.

Quote:My only contention is I don't think ESPN is going to want to pay the same rate for anyone that would be an obvious yes. I suspect ESPN would rather pay a prorated amount for less inventory than the same amount to add ODU/UAB/Buffallo/whoever else. Which doesn't in any way go against anything the Navy AD said, that he doesn't believe the league will bring in anybody that doesn't add value.

I think so too. With the caveat that, if the other conferences are hardline about a CCG waiver, then the AAC and ESPN figure out who the least unattractive #12 is and move on from there.
(This post was last modified: 06-27-2019 02:16 PM by johnbragg.)
06-27-2019 02:16 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #43
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 02:14 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:48 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 11:32 AM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  Really?? You've "combated " AAC fanboys for believing the comments of the Navy AD over you and your excessive need to hate all things American. Truth be told no one actually knows what the AAC and ESPN are pow wowing about right now. I think anyone with an iota of common sense would err on the side of an actual conference AD over some predictable maniacal broken record . The real question is WTF difference does it make to you. Me personally I can say I don't give a fart about what happens to UCONN and the NBE, but I also can say that I'm happy that they are back together . If the union proves fruitful great and if it doesn't sorry for you, nothing more and nothing less. 07-coffee3

I probably have more interest in this situation than just about anyone here, because I support two schools, one in the Big East and one in the AAC.

Believe me, I *wish* the hack/fanboy interpretation of the Navy AD's off-the-cuff vague comments were more reliable than an article in Sports Business Journal, as USF would then benefit, but I can't.

Especially when the SBJ article is on the side of common sense. 07-coffee3

Do you mean the SBJ article that said "The fact that ESPN included the clause in its contract does not mean that the network definitely will open up the deal, which goes into effect with the 2020-21 season. After all, football is the main driver of these media deals, and UConn’s football performance over the last decade has been awful...Sources told me that ESPN will wait and see how -- and if -- the AAC fills the spot vacated by UConn."

Yes, that article. I don't know if ESPN will decide to "renegotiate" the AAC deal or not. I suspect not, as UConn leaving doesn't change anything substantive that was already agreed on by ESPN and the AAC. The only difference is that one of the 12 schools is now gone, so the deal will just be adjusted such that ESPN will now be paying 11 schools $7m a year rather than 12 schools $7m a year.

If the AAC does decide to add a 12th team, then that might complicate things, as ESPN might decide that the 12th team is worth more, or less, than UConn was. But I doubt any team willing to join the AAC would vary by much in value, so again, no need for a full-blown renegotiation.

Contract isn't written on a $ per school, per year basis.
ESPN total $ for AAC total inventory, with numbers of appearances (really ranges of numbers of appearances) on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2/U, and ESPN+. Look at the conference press release from deal signing.
http://theamerican.org/news/2019/3/27/ge...nsion.aspx

"Football" says "A minimum of 40 regular-season telecasts per season on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, including at least 20 across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2, which represents increased annual exposure across those ESPN networks. A similar number of Thursday and Friday contests."
and "ESPN+" says "It is estimated that between 30-35 conference-controlled football games and approximately 135 men's basketball games will be distributed annually on the cutting-edge platform. An estimated 160 conference-controlled women's basketball games, plus first and quarterfinal rounds of the women's basketball championship, will also be streamed on the digital platform. In addition, hundreds of Olympic sports events ..."

So long as the inventory can be delivered within those ranges, albeit with a handful fewer games with the absence of our last place football team and ninth place basketball....no reason to decrement from $1B over 12 years, or $83,333,333,33 per year to the conference...

But---there is a conference composition clause in that contract.
06-27-2019 02:22 PM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #44
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 02:16 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 02:07 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The other thing is who seriously believes that if ESPN tells the AAC to add (insert whatever school that would accept the offer that ESPN wants) to keep the deal the same that the AAC is gonna say no?

That's very true. If ESPN says "we think a lot of Pennsyltucky Tech", then the AAC takes Pennsyltucky Tech. If ESPN is willing to keep the AAC at eleven (pro-rated), then the AAC stays at 11.

Quote:My only contention is I don't think ESPN is going to want to pay the same rate for anyone that would be an obvious yes. I suspect ESPN would rather pay a prorated amount for less inventory than the same amount to add ODU/UAB/Buffallo/whoever else. Which doesn't in any way go against anything the Navy AD said, that he doesn't believe the league will bring in anybody that doesn't add value.

I think so too. With the caveat that, if the other conferences are hardline about a CCG waiver, then the AAC and ESPN figure out who the least unattractive #12 is and move on from there.

I'm pretty sure they only thing the AAC would need a waiver for is to play non-round robin division-less and have a CCG. Almost certain they'd need no waiver to just keep 1 division at 6 and 1 at 5 if each division plays full round robin among themselves. Obviously that causes some internal headaches about does the east play less conference games overall or what, but I don't think that alone is going to force ESPN or the AAC to add a team they don't want. Maybe it makes each side compromise on who they want to keep the value where they want it, but I don't see either side accepting a loss to add a team just for the sake of doing it.
06-27-2019 02:27 PM
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slhNavy91 Online
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Post: #45
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 02:22 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 02:14 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:48 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I probably have more interest in this situation than just about anyone here, because I support two schools, one in the Big East and one in the AAC.

Believe me, I *wish* the hack/fanboy interpretation of the Navy AD's off-the-cuff vague comments were more reliable than an article in Sports Business Journal, as USF would then benefit, but I can't.

Especially when the SBJ article is on the side of common sense. 07-coffee3

Do you mean the SBJ article that said "The fact that ESPN included the clause in its contract does not mean that the network definitely will open up the deal, which goes into effect with the 2020-21 season. After all, football is the main driver of these media deals, and UConn’s football performance over the last decade has been awful...Sources told me that ESPN will wait and see how -- and if -- the AAC fills the spot vacated by UConn."

Yes, that article. I don't know if ESPN will decide to "renegotiate" the AAC deal or not. I suspect not, as UConn leaving doesn't change anything substantive that was already agreed on by ESPN and the AAC. The only difference is that one of the 12 schools is now gone, so the deal will just be adjusted such that ESPN will now be paying 11 schools $7m a year rather than 12 schools $7m a year.

If the AAC does decide to add a 12th team, then that might complicate things, as ESPN might decide that the 12th team is worth more, or less, than UConn was. But I doubt any team willing to join the AAC would vary by much in value, so again, no need for a full-blown renegotiation.

Contract isn't written on a $ per school, per year basis.
ESPN total $ for AAC total inventory, with numbers of appearances (really ranges of numbers of appearances) on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2/U, and ESPN+. Look at the conference press release from deal signing.
http://theamerican.org/news/2019/3/27/ge...nsion.aspx

"Football" says "A minimum of 40 regular-season telecasts per season on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, including at least 20 across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2, which represents increased annual exposure across those ESPN networks. A similar number of Thursday and Friday contests."
and "ESPN+" says "It is estimated that between 30-35 conference-controlled football games and approximately 135 men's basketball games will be distributed annually on the cutting-edge platform. An estimated 160 conference-controlled women's basketball games, plus first and quarterfinal rounds of the women's basketball championship, will also be streamed on the digital platform. In addition, hundreds of Olympic sports events ..."

So long as the inventory can be delivered within those ranges, albeit with a handful fewer games with the absence of our last place football team and ninth place basketball....no reason to decrement from $1B over 12 years, or $83,333,333,33 per year to the conference...

But---there is a conference composition clause in that contract.

They CAN but it doesn't mean they WILL. Idea of $83M divided 11 ways instead of 12 is not inconsistent with everything known about the contract
06-27-2019 02:31 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #46
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 12:44 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 10:04 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 09:00 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 08:26 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 07:48 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  This makes perfect sense, and I posted this link earlier this morning.

But don't expect sensible replies - i got about four replies from AAC fanboys saying that this story is trumped by the Navy AD's vague tweet in response to a vague question about UConn leaving and revenue distribution.

Apparently, the Navy AD Knows All, LOL. 07-coffee3

Also the Navy AD would never spin or shade things in a manner favorable to his institutions.

He's certainly going to put the most positive spin on things as possible, but I highly doubt anything he said in that interview turns out to be factually inaccurate.

Agreed. He's not going to flat out lie. "AAC divides the contract by 11 instead of 12, everybody goes to Sizzler" is almost certainly one option that the current contract provides for, if ESPN is amenable to that. AAC can certainly suggest that to ESPN.

Quote:ESPN having the contractual ability to renegotiate is not the same thing as having the ability to outright cancel the deal or just arbitrarily say we are slicing the deal in half. It means there will be a back and forth between the parties where they'll discuss different scenarios and they'll both have to sign off and agree to any changes.

Yes. And ESPN doesn't have a history of slashing these deals mid-contract, in situations where they probably could. It's not worth the pennies to them, considering the damage it does to their relationships with other leagues.

But I don't think other leagues would get the jitters at ESPN saying "The AAC per school payout stays the same with the loss of UConn." Either ESPN mandates a replacement of UConn (a warm body so that the AAC meets the numbers of games specified in the contract) or ESPN leans on the AAC to reduce the contract amounts by 1/12.

If the AAC isn't amenable to that (not gonna happen, but if), *THEN* Espn might start using the full power of their legal ability to renegotiate the deal. Partially because ESPN can say to other leagues, it was the AAC that was unreasonable here, not Bristol. You don't get raided and then get a RAISE on a contract that hasn't come into effect yet.

Quote:I'm sure if ESPN tries to argue something obviously stupid like losing UCONN takes away 40 million a year from the deal that there's some provision for mediation.

Probably so. And I don't think ESPN does that, unless the AAC spits in ESPN's face (expecting a per-school raise for getting raided).

OR, if not a mediation provision, conditions where one side can void the deal if there's an impasse.

The Navy AD never actually said the contract will stay the exact same and just divide it 11 ways instead of 12. His quotes were

"The ratio of interest by ESPN on the AAC, it was overwhelming in football. … I don’t think losing UConn is going to affect us to any degree of any significance.”

Navy AD Gladchuk: "It means there’s one less distribution to make. It means we get a little more of the revenue sharing. Anyone that comes in has got to be a plus rather than a fiscal detriment.”

"I don’t think we bring in anybody that doesn’t add value. That’ll be my vote. I don’t think we fill to fill. I have no interest in that.

In the first quote he didn't say he doesn't think the TV deal will change at all, just that he doesn't think it will affect the league to any significant degree (likely meaning decreasing the payout per team). The second quote about the 1 less distribution to make I think he's actually referring to the league distributions as a whole and not just the TV deal (although to be fair it's not super clear). That's not wrong the G5 pool along with tournament credits and every other league distribution would go up with 1 less team to give it to. The third quote is just the likely truth, and probably the way ESPN feels as well. I don't think they particularly have the urge to have the AAC add a team just because unless they bring value.


Because his school is only in the AAC for football and nothing else. The majority of AAC women's basketball on ESPN and not online were the women's UConn. basketball team. The contract for a conference is for all sports and not just football.
06-27-2019 02:34 PM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #47
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 02:13 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 02:07 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The other thing is who seriously believes that if ESPN tells the AAC to add (insert whatever school that would accept the offer that ESPN wants) to keep the deal the same that the AAC is gonna say no? My only contention is I don't think ESPN is going to want to pay the same rate for anyone that would be an obvious yes. I suspect ESPN would rather pay a prorated amount for less inventory than the same amount to add ODU/UAB/Buffallo/whoever else. Which doesn't in any way go against anything the Navy AD said, that he doesn't believe the league will bring in anybody that doesn't add value.

Which is where the negotaition will begin. If ESPN wants another team, they will need to pay 7 million for the school in order for things to break even for the current membership. If they arent willing to pay---then cut our pay by 7 million and lets move on with 11. Balls in ESPN's court.

Wow, we all agree, LOL ... the AAC isn't going to let ESPN pick a 12th member if they also want to cut the per-school payout as a result. The current schools are going to get their $7m.
06-27-2019 04:09 PM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #48
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 02:14 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:48 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 11:32 AM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  Really?? You've "combated " AAC fanboys for believing the comments of the Navy AD over you and your excessive need to hate all things American. Truth be told no one actually knows what the AAC and ESPN are pow wowing about right now. I think anyone with an iota of common sense would err on the side of an actual conference AD over some predictable maniacal broken record . The real question is WTF difference does it make to you. Me personally I can say I don't give a fart about what happens to UCONN and the NBE, but I also can say that I'm happy that they are back together . If the union proves fruitful great and if it doesn't sorry for you, nothing more and nothing less. 07-coffee3

I probably have more interest in this situation than just about anyone here, because I support two schools, one in the Big East and one in the AAC.

Believe me, I *wish* the hack/fanboy interpretation of the Navy AD's off-the-cuff vague comments were more reliable than an article in Sports Business Journal, as USF would then benefit, but I can't.

Especially when the SBJ article is on the side of common sense. 07-coffee3

Do you mean the SBJ article that said "The fact that ESPN included the clause in its contract does not mean that the network definitely will open up the deal, which goes into effect with the 2020-21 season. After all, football is the main driver of these media deals, and UConn’s football performance over the last decade has been awful...Sources told me that ESPN will wait and see how -- and if -- the AAC fills the spot vacated by UConn."

Yes, that article. I don't know if ESPN will decide to "renegotiate" the AAC deal or not. I suspect not, as UConn leaving doesn't change anything substantive that was already agreed on by ESPN and the AAC. The only difference is that one of the 12 schools is now gone, so the deal will just be adjusted such that ESPN will now be paying 11 schools $7m a year rather than 12 schools $7m a year.

If the AAC does decide to add a 12th team, then that might complicate things, as ESPN might decide that the 12th team is worth more, or less, than UConn was. But I doubt any team willing to join the AAC would vary by much in value, so again, no need for a full-blown renegotiation.

Contract isn't written on a $ per school, per year basis.
ESPN total $ for AAC total inventory, with numbers of appearances (really ranges of numbers of appearances) on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2/U, and ESPN+. Look at the conference press release from deal signing.
http://theamerican.org/news/2019/3/27/ge...nsion.aspx

"Football" says "A minimum of 40 regular-season telecasts per season on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, including at least 20 across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2, which represents increased annual exposure across those ESPN networks. A similar number of Thursday and Friday contests."
and "ESPN+" says "It is estimated that between 30-35 conference-controlled football games and approximately 135 men's basketball games will be distributed annually on the cutting-edge platform. An estimated 160 conference-controlled women's basketball games, plus first and quarterfinal rounds of the women's basketball championship, will also be streamed on the digital platform. In addition, hundreds of Olympic sports events ..."

So long as the inventory can be delivered within those ranges, albeit with a handful fewer games with the absence of our last place football team and ninth place basketball....no reason to decrement from $1B over 12 years, or $83,333,333,33 per year to the conference...

So you're clinging to the idea that ESPN is going to be willing to pay the AAC the same total amount even though it's now 11 schools not 12?

Good luck with that - seriously, as USF would stand to benefit. But I see very little chance that happens. To me, it's obvious that of course the dollar value arrived at was on a per-school-payout basis, as that is what the schools are interested in. That's what the AAC schools cared about. And ESPN was willing to pay that for the 12 specific schools in the conference, not 11. Heck, using your logic, the AAC could lose 5 schools but as long as it could provide 40 football games for the linear channels, 65 hoops games, etc. as indicated in the press release, the money would stay the same, but of course that beggars belief. And btw, if there's anything that's been offered in this thread *less* reliable pertaining to this than the vague comments from the Navy AD, it's the stuff from the AAC press conference you quoted, which tells us nothing about how the dollar values were arrived at.

UConn was 1/12 the conference, so i expect the deal will be pro-rated back by 1/12 in total dollars, keeping the per-school payout, the real thing ESPN and the AAC bargained over, the same.

In the end, as you say, ESPN doesn't *have* to do this, but ... what would their motivation NOT to do it be? The motivation TO do it is obvious - save themselves $7m per year.
(This post was last modified: 06-27-2019 04:29 PM by quo vadis.)
06-27-2019 04:20 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #49
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 02:31 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 02:22 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 02:14 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:48 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Do you mean the SBJ article that said "The fact that ESPN included the clause in its contract does not mean that the network definitely will open up the deal, which goes into effect with the 2020-21 season. After all, football is the main driver of these media deals, and UConn’s football performance over the last decade has been awful...Sources told me that ESPN will wait and see how -- and if -- the AAC fills the spot vacated by UConn."

Yes, that article. I don't know if ESPN will decide to "renegotiate" the AAC deal or not. I suspect not, as UConn leaving doesn't change anything substantive that was already agreed on by ESPN and the AAC. The only difference is that one of the 12 schools is now gone, so the deal will just be adjusted such that ESPN will now be paying 11 schools $7m a year rather than 12 schools $7m a year.

If the AAC does decide to add a 12th team, then that might complicate things, as ESPN might decide that the 12th team is worth more, or less, than UConn was. But I doubt any team willing to join the AAC would vary by much in value, so again, no need for a full-blown renegotiation.

Contract isn't written on a $ per school, per year basis.
ESPN total $ for AAC total inventory, with numbers of appearances (really ranges of numbers of appearances) on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2/U, and ESPN+. Look at the conference press release from deal signing.
http://theamerican.org/news/2019/3/27/ge...nsion.aspx

"Football" says "A minimum of 40 regular-season telecasts per season on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, including at least 20 across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2, which represents increased annual exposure across those ESPN networks. A similar number of Thursday and Friday contests."
and "ESPN+" says "It is estimated that between 30-35 conference-controlled football games and approximately 135 men's basketball games will be distributed annually on the cutting-edge platform. An estimated 160 conference-controlled women's basketball games, plus first and quarterfinal rounds of the women's basketball championship, will also be streamed on the digital platform. In addition, hundreds of Olympic sports events ..."

So long as the inventory can be delivered within those ranges, albeit with a handful fewer games with the absence of our last place football team and ninth place basketball....no reason to decrement from $1B over 12 years, or $83,333,333,33 per year to the conference...

But---there is a conference composition clause in that contract.

They CAN but it doesn't mean they WILL. Idea of $83M divided 11 ways instead of 12 is not inconsistent with everything known about the contract

Is it? I wouldnt say it is necessarily consistent with the intended purpose of a conference composition clause. That said, I think ESPN has two "fair" choices. They can pay 7 million for a replacement team, or they can dock the AAC for UConns 7 million dollar share---and let the AAC carry on with 11 members. Either way, in terms on the final effect on the teams of the league, Gladchuk's comments would not be wrong. In fact, they would be pretty darn accurate.
(This post was last modified: 06-27-2019 04:35 PM by Attackcoog.)
06-27-2019 04:33 PM
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slhNavy91 Online
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Post: #50
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 04:20 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 02:14 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:48 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I probably have more interest in this situation than just about anyone here, because I support two schools, one in the Big East and one in the AAC.

Believe me, I *wish* the hack/fanboy interpretation of the Navy AD's off-the-cuff vague comments were more reliable than an article in Sports Business Journal, as USF would then benefit, but I can't.

Especially when the SBJ article is on the side of common sense. 07-coffee3

Do you mean the SBJ article that said "The fact that ESPN included the clause in its contract does not mean that the network definitely will open up the deal, which goes into effect with the 2020-21 season. After all, football is the main driver of these media deals, and UConn’s football performance over the last decade has been awful...Sources told me that ESPN will wait and see how -- and if -- the AAC fills the spot vacated by UConn."

Yes, that article. I don't know if ESPN will decide to "renegotiate" the AAC deal or not. I suspect not, as UConn leaving doesn't change anything substantive that was already agreed on by ESPN and the AAC. The only difference is that one of the 12 schools is now gone, so the deal will just be adjusted such that ESPN will now be paying 11 schools $7m a year rather than 12 schools $7m a year.

If the AAC does decide to add a 12th team, then that might complicate things, as ESPN might decide that the 12th team is worth more, or less, than UConn was. But I doubt any team willing to join the AAC would vary by much in value, so again, no need for a full-blown renegotiation.

Contract isn't written on a $ per school, per year basis.
ESPN total $ for AAC total inventory, with numbers of appearances (really ranges of numbers of appearances) on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2/U, and ESPN+. Look at the conference press release from deal signing.
http://theamerican.org/news/2019/3/27/ge...nsion.aspx

"Football" says "A minimum of 40 regular-season telecasts per season on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, including at least 20 across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2, which represents increased annual exposure across those ESPN networks. A similar number of Thursday and Friday contests."
and "ESPN+" says "It is estimated that between 30-35 conference-controlled football games and approximately 135 men's basketball games will be distributed annually on the cutting-edge platform. An estimated 160 conference-controlled women's basketball games, plus first and quarterfinal rounds of the women's basketball championship, will also be streamed on the digital platform. In addition, hundreds of Olympic sports events ..."

So long as the inventory can be delivered within those ranges, albeit with a handful fewer games with the absence of our last place football team and ninth place basketball....no reason to decrement from $1B over 12 years, or $83,333,333,33 per year to the conference...

So you're clinging to the idea that ESPN is going to be willing to pay the AAC the same total amount even though it's now 11 schools not 12?

Good luck with that - seriously, as USF would stand to benefit. But I see very little chance that happens. To me, it's obvious that of course the dollar value arrived at was on a per-school-payout basis, as that is what the schools are interested in. That's what the AAC schools cared about. And ESPN was willing to pay that for the 12 specific schools in the conference, not 11. Heck, using your logic, the AAC could lose 5 schools but as long as it could provide 40 football games for the linear channels, 65 hoops games, etc. as indicated in the press release, the money would stay the same, but of course that beggars belief. And btw, if there's anything that's been offered in this thread *less* reliable pertaining to this than the vague comments from the Navy AD, it's the stuff from the AAC press conference you quoted, which tells us nothing about how the dollar values were arrived at.

UConn was 1/12 the conference, so i expect the deal will be pro-rated back by 1/12 in total dollars, keeping the per-school payout, the real thing ESPN and the AAC bargained over, the same.

In the end, as you say, ESPN doesn't *have* to do this, but ... what would their motivation NOT to do it be? The motivation TO do it is obvious - save themselves $7m per year.

To me, it's obvious that of course the dollar value arrived at was on a per-school-payout basis
- AND -
keeping the per-school payout, the real thing ESPN and the AAC bargained over, the same.
THIS IS JUST WRONG.
Network and conference talk total dollars and overall inventory. Per school payout is message board fodder, not the negotiaing points.


using your logic, the AAC could lose 5 schools but as long as it could provide 40 football games for the linear channels, 65 hoops games, etc.

This is what is referred to in logic as a reductio ad absurdum fallacy.

So you're clinging to the idea that ESPN is going to be willing to pay the AAC the same total amount even though it's now 11 schools not 12?
I am not saying it WILL happen. But it could. If AAC can still deliver inventory in accordance with the terms, then it may not be worth it to ESPN to re-open for negotiation.
(This post was last modified: 06-27-2019 04:41 PM by slhNavy91.)
06-27-2019 04:38 PM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #51
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 04:38 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 04:20 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 02:14 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:48 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Do you mean the SBJ article that said "The fact that ESPN included the clause in its contract does not mean that the network definitely will open up the deal, which goes into effect with the 2020-21 season. After all, football is the main driver of these media deals, and UConn’s football performance over the last decade has been awful...Sources told me that ESPN will wait and see how -- and if -- the AAC fills the spot vacated by UConn."

Yes, that article. I don't know if ESPN will decide to "renegotiate" the AAC deal or not. I suspect not, as UConn leaving doesn't change anything substantive that was already agreed on by ESPN and the AAC. The only difference is that one of the 12 schools is now gone, so the deal will just be adjusted such that ESPN will now be paying 11 schools $7m a year rather than 12 schools $7m a year.

If the AAC does decide to add a 12th team, then that might complicate things, as ESPN might decide that the 12th team is worth more, or less, than UConn was. But I doubt any team willing to join the AAC would vary by much in value, so again, no need for a full-blown renegotiation.

Contract isn't written on a $ per school, per year basis.
ESPN total $ for AAC total inventory, with numbers of appearances (really ranges of numbers of appearances) on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2/U, and ESPN+. Look at the conference press release from deal signing.
http://theamerican.org/news/2019/3/27/ge...nsion.aspx

"Football" says "A minimum of 40 regular-season telecasts per season on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, including at least 20 across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2, which represents increased annual exposure across those ESPN networks. A similar number of Thursday and Friday contests."
and "ESPN+" says "It is estimated that between 30-35 conference-controlled football games and approximately 135 men's basketball games will be distributed annually on the cutting-edge platform. An estimated 160 conference-controlled women's basketball games, plus first and quarterfinal rounds of the women's basketball championship, will also be streamed on the digital platform. In addition, hundreds of Olympic sports events ..."

So long as the inventory can be delivered within those ranges, albeit with a handful fewer games with the absence of our last place football team and ninth place basketball....no reason to decrement from $1B over 12 years, or $83,333,333,33 per year to the conference...

So you're clinging to the idea that ESPN is going to be willing to pay the AAC the same total amount even though it's now 11 schools not 12?

Good luck with that - seriously, as USF would stand to benefit. But I see very little chance that happens. To me, it's obvious that of course the dollar value arrived at was on a per-school-payout basis, as that is what the schools are interested in. That's what the AAC schools cared about. And ESPN was willing to pay that for the 12 specific schools in the conference, not 11. Heck, using your logic, the AAC could lose 5 schools but as long as it could provide 40 football games for the linear channels, 65 hoops games, etc. as indicated in the press release, the money would stay the same, but of course that beggars belief. And btw, if there's anything that's been offered in this thread *less* reliable pertaining to this than the vague comments from the Navy AD, it's the stuff from the AAC press conference you quoted, which tells us nothing about how the dollar values were arrived at.

UConn was 1/12 the conference, so i expect the deal will be pro-rated back by 1/12 in total dollars, keeping the per-school payout, the real thing ESPN and the AAC bargained over, the same.

In the end, as you say, ESPN doesn't *have* to do this, but ... what would their motivation NOT to do it be? The motivation TO do it is obvious - save themselves $7m per year.

To me, it's obvious that of course the dollar value arrived at was on a per-school-payout basis
- AND -
keeping the per-school payout, the real thing ESPN and the AAC bargained over, the same.
THIS IS JUST WRONG.
Network and conference talk total dollars and overall inventory. Per school payout is message board fodder, not the negotiaing points.


using your logic, the AAC could lose 5 schools but as long as it could provide 40 football games for the linear channels, 65 hoops games, etc.

This is what is referred to in logic as a reductio ad absurdum fallacy.

First,no, it's not wrong, otherwise ESPN would be willing to pay $83m a year to any conference with 12 teams that can deliver 1400 games of this and 60 games of that and 40 games for this. But obviously, that's not the case. ESPN wasn't paying for 1400 random games between random teams, what they were paying for was that number of games among 12 schools that if felt were worth that much. My 'reducto absurdim' point was offered to try to make that clear to you since other methods weren't working. Oh well.

And OF COURSE the AAC schools bargained with a per-school-payout in mind, as that is their specific bottom line. They don't care what the conference gets "as a whole", they care what their share is. That's not "message board fodder" it's exactly what the Presidents care about. To think that wasn't very much on the mind of Aresco when he was bargaining beggars belief.

Again, none of us knows exactly what ESPN will do. But the motivation for pro-rating the yearly payment from $83m to $76m seems clear - save $7m, whereas the motivation for paying the full $83m to the 11-school AAC seems unclear.
(This post was last modified: 06-27-2019 05:16 PM by quo vadis.)
06-27-2019 05:14 PM
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billybobby777 Offline
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Post: #52
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 02:14 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:48 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 01:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 11:32 AM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  Really?? You've "combated " AAC fanboys for believing the comments of the Navy AD over you and your excessive need to hate all things American. Truth be told no one actually knows what the AAC and ESPN are pow wowing about right now. I think anyone with an iota of common sense would err on the side of an actual conference AD over some predictable maniacal broken record . The real question is WTF difference does it make to you. Me personally I can say I don't give a fart about what happens to UCONN and the NBE, but I also can say that I'm happy that they are back together . If the union proves fruitful great and if it doesn't sorry for you, nothing more and nothing less. 07-coffee3

I probably have more interest in this situation than just about anyone here, because I support two schools, one in the Big East and one in the AAC.

Believe me, I *wish* the hack/fanboy interpretation of the Navy AD's off-the-cuff vague comments were more reliable than an article in Sports Business Journal, as USF would then benefit, but I can't.

Especially when the SBJ article is on the side of common sense. 07-coffee3

Do you mean the SBJ article that said "The fact that ESPN included the clause in its contract does not mean that the network definitely will open up the deal, which goes into effect with the 2020-21 season. After all, football is the main driver of these media deals, and UConn’s football performance over the last decade has been awful...Sources told me that ESPN will wait and see how -- and if -- the AAC fills the spot vacated by UConn."

Yes, that article. I don't know if ESPN will decide to "renegotiate" the AAC deal or not. I suspect not, as UConn leaving doesn't change anything substantive that was already agreed on by ESPN and the AAC. The only difference is that one of the 12 schools is now gone, so the deal will just be adjusted such that ESPN will now be paying 11 schools $7m a year rather than 12 schools $7m a year.

If the AAC does decide to add a 12th team, then that might complicate things, as ESPN might decide that the 12th team is worth more, or less, than UConn was. But I doubt any team willing to join the AAC would vary by much in value, so again, no need for a full-blown renegotiation.

Contract isn't written on a $ per school, per year basis.
ESPN total $ for AAC total inventory, with numbers of appearances (really ranges of numbers of appearances) on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2/U, and ESPN+. Look at the conference press release from deal signing.
http://theamerican.org/news/2019/3/27/ge...nsion.aspx

"Football" says "A minimum of 40 regular-season telecasts per season on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 and ESPNU, including at least 20 across ABC, ESPN and ESPN2, which represents increased annual exposure across those ESPN networks. A similar number of Thursday and Friday contests."
and "ESPN+" says "It is estimated that between 30-35 conference-controlled football games and approximately 135 men's basketball games will be distributed annually on the cutting-edge platform. An estimated 160 conference-controlled women's basketball games, plus first and quarterfinal rounds of the women's basketball championship, will also be streamed on the digital platform. In addition, hundreds of Olympic sports events ..."

So long as the inventory can be delivered within those ranges, albeit with a handful fewer games with the absence of our last place football team and ninth place basketball....no reason to decrement from $1B over 12 years, or $83,333,333,33 per year to the conference...

Thanks Mike.
A Navy fan (with a contract with CBS and no skin in this) is a terrible cover.
06-27-2019 09:01 PM
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BullsFanInTX Offline
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Post: #53
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
Wrong, ESPN's right to negotiate only included any of 5 schools leaving, of which UConn was not one.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/...057439.php

Another important issue revolves around what impact if any, UConn’s departure will have on the league’s new media rights deal that goes into effect in 2020. The $1 billion deal has a clause that would allow ESPN to renegotiate if a member leaves, according to the Sports Business Journal. A source said the clause is specifically tied to five schools (Houston, Cincinnati, Central Florida, Memphis and South Florida), which UConn was not included.

Under the current terms, each AAC school was projected to receive about $7 million annually. UConn’s departure could mean an additional $700,000 bump.
(This post was last modified: 06-27-2019 10:49 PM by BullsFanInTX.)
06-27-2019 10:41 PM
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Post: #54
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
they are not going to be seeing an immediate $700,000 bump unless they were dumb enough to sign a contract that is straight money for 12 years which 12 years from now will look horrible compared to many other conferences

I suppose they could have done that on the idea that several schools believe they are leaving long before then so who cares, but that is a lot of administrations out of 12 that took a real long shot on that if that is the case

and IF this is the case where ESPN has no protections for any single team laving other than the ones mentioned then the AAC can be sure that any "look ins" (already pretty much BS anyway) will be looked into by ESPN and then thrown in the trash and no additional money will be offered for the full 12 years.....but of course several schools think they will be long gone by then anyway so they will take that risk
(This post was last modified: 06-27-2019 10:59 PM by TodgeRodge.)
06-27-2019 10:59 PM
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Pony94 Offline
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Post: #55
ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 10:59 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  they are not going to be seeing an immediate $700,000 bump unless they were dumb enough to sign a contract that is straight money for 12 years which 12 years from now will look horrible compared to many other conferences

I suppose they could have done that on the idea that several schools believe they are leaving long before then so who cares, but that is a lot of administrations out of 12 that took a real long shot on that if that is the case

and IF this is the case where ESPN has no protections for any single team laving other than the ones mentioned then the AAC can be sure that any "look ins" (already pretty much BS anyway) will be looked into by ESPN and then thrown in the trash and no additional money will be offered for the full 12 years.....but of course several schools think they will be long gone by then anyway so they will take that risk


Rodge to replace Aresco when the conference moves to Irving. Who else votes for him?
06-27-2019 11:01 PM
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Post: #56
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 10:41 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Wrong, ESPN's right to negotiate only included any of 5 schools leaving, of which UConn was not one.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/...057439.php

Another important issue revolves around what impact if any, UConn’s departure will have on the league’s new media rights deal that goes into effect in 2020. The $1 billion deal has a clause that would allow ESPN to renegotiate if a member leaves, according to the Sports Business Journal. A source said the clause is specifically tied to five schools (Houston, Cincinnati, Central Florida, Memphis and South Florida), which UConn was not included.

Under the current terms, each AAC school was projected to receive about $7 million annually. UConn’s departure could mean an additional $700,000 bump.


UConn's women's basketball was something that the AAC can crow about as being champions. Lady Huskies was most valuable to the AAC to be televised on tv. You will lose money, not getting a bump. AAC's women's basketball RPI just took a nose dive. You all become losers in a big brand name in basketball.
06-27-2019 11:23 PM
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Post: #57
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 11:23 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 10:41 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Wrong, ESPN's right to negotiate only included any of 5 schools leaving, of which UConn was not one.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/...057439.php

Another important issue revolves around what impact if any, UConn’s departure will have on the league’s new media rights deal that goes into effect in 2020. The $1 billion deal has a clause that would allow ESPN to renegotiate if a member leaves, according to the Sports Business Journal. A source said the clause is specifically tied to five schools (Houston, Cincinnati, Central Florida, Memphis and South Florida), which UConn was not included.

Under the current terms, each AAC school was projected to receive about $7 million annually. UConn’s departure could mean an additional $700,000 bump.


UConn's women's basketball was something that the AAC can crow about as being champions. Lady Huskies was most valuable to the AAC to be televised on tv. You will lose money, not getting a bump. AAC's women's basketball RPI just took a nose dive. You all become losers in a big brand name in basketball.

If you feel you know more than AAC sources who have seen the ESPN contract, then I have no comeback for you.
06-27-2019 11:45 PM
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Post: #58
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 02:16 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 02:07 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  The other thing is who seriously believes that if ESPN tells the AAC to add (insert whatever school that would accept the offer that ESPN wants) to keep the deal the same that the AAC is gonna say no?

That's very true. If ESPN says "we think a lot of Pennsyltucky Tech", then the AAC takes Pennsyltucky Tech. If ESPN is willing to keep the AAC at eleven (pro-rated), then the AAC stays at 11.

Quote:My only contention is I don't think ESPN is going to want to pay the same rate for anyone that would be an obvious yes. I suspect ESPN would rather pay a prorated amount for less inventory than the same amount to add ODU/UAB/Buffallo/whoever else. Which doesn't in any way go against anything the Navy AD said, that he doesn't believe the league will bring in anybody that doesn't add value.

I think so too. With the caveat that, if the other conferences are hardline about a CCG waiver, then the AAC and ESPN figure out who the least unattractive #12 is and move on from there.

I dont think a waiver will be hard to get. Basically, 8 of the 10 conferences could face a similar situation and might not want too be forced to choose between rushing to take a team they dont really want, losing their CCG, or having to use screwball scheduling to salvage the CCG.

Frankly, I think they should look at just adjusting the CCG rule to allow conferences to have a CCG with the top two teams as long as the conference utilizes a continuous round robin schedule (even if the conference cannot complete the full round robin in a single season). By continuous round robin, I mean a conference would at least 8 games of a round robin schedule in a season--and then next year----it would continue that same round robin---picking up the round robin where they left off the previous year so there is no artificial ducking of teams. Essentially, the round robin would just continue on forever.

There is really no logical reason to not have that option because division round robins effectively are similar in that teams might randomly skip other key opponents in any given year. There would really be no difference between that situation and a conference that is using a continuous round robin style schedule. That option would be of great value to larger conferences or those with odd numbered membership. It would also allow large conferences to be more cohesive because the teams would see each other more than they would under a divisional format. If the idea of losing annual games is a problem, the conference could always fall back on the traditional 2 division CCG structure.
(This post was last modified: 06-28-2019 12:12 AM by Attackcoog.)
06-28-2019 12:04 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #59
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 10:41 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  Wrong, ESPN's right to negotiate only included any of 5 schools leaving, of which UConn was not one.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/...057439.php

Another important issue revolves around what impact if any, UConn’s departure will have on the league’s new media rights deal that goes into effect in 2020. The $1 billion deal has a clause that would allow ESPN to renegotiate if a member leaves, according to the Sports Business Journal. A source said the clause is specifically tied to five schools (Houston, Cincinnati, Central Florida, Memphis and South Florida), which UConn was not included.

Under the current terms, each AAC school was projected to receive about $7 million annually. UConn’s departure could mean an additional $700,000 bump.

Well thats a pretty big deal folks. That puts the AAC in drivers seat as far as replacing UConn. There is very little motivation to add anyone who doesnt add significant value just to have warm body 12th member. It also gives ESPN motivation to do what they can to aid in getting one of the schools on the AAC short list to make the move. They cant make a school who doesnt want to join make the move---but they can probably offer some intriguing incentives to make moving more attractive. 04-cheers
06-28-2019 12:29 AM
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Post: #60
RE: ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference
(06-27-2019 10:59 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  they are not going to be seeing an immediate $700,000 bump unless they were dumb enough to sign a contract that is straight money for 12 years which 12 years from now will look horrible compared to many other conferences

I suppose they could have done that on the idea that several schools believe they are leaving long before then so who cares, but that is a lot of administrations out of 12 that took a real long shot on that if that is the case

and IF this is the case where ESPN has no protections for any single team laving other than the ones mentioned then the AAC can be sure that any "look ins" (already pretty much BS anyway) will be looked into by ESPN and then thrown in the trash and no additional money will be offered for the full 12 years.....but of course several schools think they will be long gone by then anyway so they will take that risk

The AAC would be wise to treat their TV partner fairly here and avoid the appearance of trying to take advantage of the situation---but they appear to now have the ability to move slowly and carefully on the replacement process. Plus, its very likely they will get the maximum help possible from ESPN in landing their top targets since ESPN is going to be paying them an average of about 7 million a year over the life of the deal.
(This post was last modified: 06-28-2019 12:37 AM by Attackcoog.)
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