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Why the AAC will hold at 11
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #1
Why the AAC will hold at 11
1. They need no waiver to play a CCG with 11

2. They will make more money per school

3. BYU, Army, and AFA will all probably say no

4. No one else looks like an obvious pick

5. If a consensus candidate east of the Rockies ever emerges they will have room to add them.

6. Navy playing 4 West teams and 4 East teams, while counting as a member of the West Division means everyone hosts Navy twice in a 5 year span which is very attractive to all conference members.
06-26-2019 04:41 PM
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johnbragg Online
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RE: Why the AAC will hold at 11
(06-26-2019 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  1. They need no waiver to play a CCG with 11

Well, we don't know this. They *do* need a waiver to play a CCG with 11 if they play a traditional schedule--no home-and-homes in the regular season, everyone plays the same number of conference games.

Quote:2. They will make more money per school

Maybe. Navy AD said so, but I'd wait and see. I'll be surprised if the outcome is "UConn leaves, everyone else gets to split their share of the TV contract."

More likely, ESPN will insist on adding a #12, or will claw back 1/12 of the contract.

Quote:3. BYU, Army, and AFA will all probably say no

4. No one else looks like an obvious pick

5. If a consensus candidate east of the Rockies ever emerges they will have room to add them.

Agreed.
06-26-2019 04:50 PM
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mturn017 Online
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Post: #3
RE: Why the AAC will hold at 11
(06-26-2019 04:50 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  1. They need no waiver to play a CCG with 11

Well, we don't know this. They *do* need a waiver to play a CCG with 11 if they play a traditional schedule--no home-and-homes in the regular season, everyone plays the same number of conference games.

Quote:2. They will make more money per school

Maybe. Navy AD said so, but I'd wait and see. I'll be surprised if the outcome is "UConn leaves, everyone else gets to split their share of the TV contract."

More likely, ESPN will insist on adding a #12, or will claw back 1/12 of the contract.

Quote:3. BYU, Army, and AFA will all probably say no

4. No one else looks like an obvious pick

5. If a consensus candidate east of the Rockies ever emerges they will have room to add them.

Agreed.

Even if the TV contract is adjusted down they’ll share the CFP, ncaa credits and other revenues among less numbers.
06-26-2019 04:58 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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RE: Why the AAC will hold at 11
(06-26-2019 04:50 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  1. They need no waiver to play a CCG with 11

Well, we don't know this. They *do* need a waiver to play a CCG with 11 if they play a traditional schedule--no home-and-homes in the regular season, everyone plays the same number of conference games.

Quote:2. They will make more money per school

Maybe. Navy AD said so, but I'd wait and see. I'll be surprised if the outcome is "UConn leaves, everyone else gets to split their share of the TV contract."

More likely, ESPN will insist on adding a #12, or will claw back 1/12 of the contract.

Quote:3. BYU, Army, and AFA will all probably say no

4. No one else looks like an obvious pick

5. If a consensus candidate east of the Rockies ever emerges they will have room to add them.

Agreed.

The NCAA had no gripes when the MAC and C-USA played CCGs with 13---this is a non issue.
06-26-2019 05:03 PM
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CliftonAve Online
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RE: Why the AAC will hold at 11
(06-26-2019 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  1. They need no waiver to play a CCG with 11

2. They will make more money per school

3. BYU, Army, and AFA will all probably say no

4. No one else looks like an obvious pick

5. If a consensus candidate east of the Rockies ever emerges they will have room to add them.

6. Navy playing 4 West teams and 4 East teams, while counting as a member of the West Division means everyone hosts Navy twice in a 5 year span which is very attractive to all conference members.

7. One less share of bowl revenue.
8. If UConn goes Indy all the G5 schools will get a larger cut from the CFP revenue.
06-26-2019 05:26 PM
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Chappy Online
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RE: Why the AAC will hold at 11
Just a guess of course, but the only way I see is going back to 12 is if ESPN brokers a deal to get BYU on board. Army (and Air Force) will probably say no and there’s no incentive from their TV partners to get involved. Nobody else will be invited.
06-26-2019 05:33 PM
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RE: Why the AAC will hold at 11
BYU football only or bust.
06-26-2019 05:54 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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RE: Why the AAC will hold at 11
AAC needs a school on the east coast. The only one that is building up their facilities quickly is ODU.
06-26-2019 06:04 PM
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1845 Bear Offline
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Why the AAC will hold at 11
(06-26-2019 04:58 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 04:50 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  1. They need no waiver to play a CCG with 11

Well, we don't know this. They *do* need a waiver to play a CCG with 11 if they play a traditional schedule--no home-and-homes in the regular season, everyone plays the same number of conference games.

Quote:2. They will make more money per school

Maybe. Navy AD said so, but I'd wait and see. I'll be surprised if the outcome is "UConn leaves, everyone else gets to split their share of the TV contract."

More likely, ESPN will insist on adding a #12, or will claw back 1/12 of the contract.

Quote:3. BYU, Army, and AFA will all probably say no

4. No one else looks like an obvious pick

5. If a consensus candidate east of the Rockies ever emerges they will have room to add them.

Agreed.

Even if the TV contract is adjusted down they’ll share the CFP, ncaa credits and other revenues among less numbers.


Yes.

Tv money per school likely stays level but ESPN simply pays less since they no longer pay UConn’s share. Non-tv funds split fewer ways will present a windfall for the other 11.
06-26-2019 06:07 PM
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Pony94 Online
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Why the AAC will hold at 11
(06-26-2019 06:04 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  AAC needs a school on the east coast. The only one that is building up their facilities quickly is ODU.


Aresco was on the Arkansas Tech campus today
06-26-2019 06:08 PM
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Post: #11
RE: Why the AAC will hold at 11
(06-26-2019 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  1. They need no waiver to play a CCG with 11

...

6. Navy playing 4 West teams and 4 East teams, while counting as a member of the West Division means everyone hosts Navy twice in a 5 year span which is very attractive to all conference members.

I appreciate your shooting down all the chicken littles here with point #1, but your solution in point #6 would require a waiver. They need no waiver for a CCG because a schedule that permits a round robin in each division of a 5/6 split is easily doable for the AAC.
06-26-2019 06:43 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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RE: Why the AAC will hold at 11
I think I have the solution.

5 East teams, 5 West teams and 1 team that belongs to both. 10 conference games. Everyone plays a double round-robin in their division except for the middle team, which plays everyone once. Teams with the best records play in the CCG. If the middle team has the best record, they play with themselves (it will not be televised, at least before midnight).
06-26-2019 06:52 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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RE: Why the AAC will hold at 11
The waiver is automatic for two years. Conferences get those to get back into compliance, regardless of the issue. That means 2020 and 2021 are OK

The ACC will need either Division-less football approved or a waiver extension approved for 2023 onward. But given how much all the conferences are indebted to ESPN for their own CCG's and/or 3rd tier networks, it's hard to see anyone crossing ESPN by opposing the granting to the AAC of an extended waiver. This is also the easiest way for other G5 conferences to protect themselves from being raided. It just makes too much sense for everyone to not approve it. It's not a significant hurdle.

Not sure the money is any more with 11 than 12, as ESPN will adjust accordingly to UConn's departure. I am certain they were well aware it was likely and so was the AAC, so it's probably a simple adjustment. My hunch is it's a wash, everyone will get the money promised their schools, only the UConn share will be removed.

Also ESPN has veto power in the sense that if they think an addition makes the product more worthwhile they can up the money the held back after UConn's departure, and if they think it worsens the product they can not give any additional money or even decrease it.
06-26-2019 07:15 PM
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GTFletch Offline
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RE: Why the AAC will hold at 11
They will have to add a member or lose money, per the contract.... ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference...Sports Business Journal’s John Ourand reports in latest newsletter that ESPN now has the right to renegotiate the terms of the 12-year, $1 billion deal it signed with the conference back in March. Ourand writes that ESPN has a clause in the contract that allows it to open up the deal if a school left the conference.

With the deal taking effect in 2020-21, ESPN has time to mull over its options. The AAC does as well. The conference is reportedly looking at potential replacements, ranging from Army to Boise State.

Link
https://awfulannouncing.com/ncaa/espn-ca...rence.html
(This post was last modified: 06-27-2019 07:25 AM by GTFletch.)
06-26-2019 07:19 PM
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msm96wolf Offline
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RE: Why the AAC will hold at 11
(06-26-2019 05:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 04:50 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  1. They need no waiver to play a CCG with 11

Well, we don't know this. They *do* need a waiver to play a CCG with 11 if they play a traditional schedule--no home-and-homes in the regular season, everyone plays the same number of conference games.

Quote:2. They will make more money per school

Maybe. Navy AD said so, but I'd wait and see. I'll be surprised if the outcome is "UConn leaves, everyone else gets to split their share of the TV contract."

More likely, ESPN will insist on adding a #12, or will claw back 1/12 of the contract.

Quote:3. BYU, Army, and AFA will all probably say no

4. No one else looks like an obvious pick

5. If a consensus candidate east of the Rockies ever emerges they will have room to add them.

Agreed.

The NCAA had no gripes when the MAC and C-USA played CCGs with 13---this is a non issue.

Apple vs Oranges. UMASS was leaving the MAC after the 2015 season. Thus NCAA granted the Waiver because MAC had a plan to return to 12. AAC is not showing any effort to go to 12, so why would the NCAA consider applying a waiver? That is a point many are missing by thinking a waiver will be automatic from the NCAA.
06-26-2019 07:49 PM
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esayem Offline
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RE: Why the AAC will hold at 11
There are two ways to stay at 11:

1) The NCAA eliminates the round-robin/division rule. Other conferences support this idea.

2) They use unbalanced divisions like the MAC did, except with 5 and 6. Memphis could even move to the East if they prefer.

What will not happen is a 10 game conference schedule. Navy would quit.
06-26-2019 07:58 PM
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P5PACSEC Offline
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RE: Why the AAC will hold at 11
(06-26-2019 06:04 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  AAC needs a school on the east coast. The only one that is building up their facilities quickly is ODU.

I nominate the wonder boys from Arkansas Tech to replace UConn.

ESPN will give $20 million per school with the addition of Arkansas Tech.

Source---- it makes sense for the AAC.
06-26-2019 10:02 PM
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Attackcoog Online
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Post: #18
RE: Why the AAC will hold at 11
(06-26-2019 07:49 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 05:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 04:50 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 04:41 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  1. They need no waiver to play a CCG with 11

Well, we don't know this. They *do* need a waiver to play a CCG with 11 if they play a traditional schedule--no home-and-homes in the regular season, everyone plays the same number of conference games.

Quote:2. They will make more money per school

Maybe. Navy AD said so, but I'd wait and see. I'll be surprised if the outcome is "UConn leaves, everyone else gets to split their share of the TV contract."

More likely, ESPN will insist on adding a #12, or will claw back 1/12 of the contract.

Quote:3. BYU, Army, and AFA will all probably say no

4. No one else looks like an obvious pick

5. If a consensus candidate east of the Rockies ever emerges they will have room to add them.

Agreed.

The NCAA had no gripes when the MAC and C-USA played CCGs with 13---this is a non issue.

Apple vs Oranges. UMASS was leaving the MAC after the 2015 season. Thus NCAA granted the Waiver because MAC had a plan to return to 12. AAC is not showing any effort to go to 12, so why would the NCAA consider applying a waiver? That is a point many are missing by thinking a waiver will be automatic from the NCAA.

The conferences vote on this. The conferences are likely to grant the waiver because at least 6 or 7 of those conferences could find themselves in the same fix at some point. That’s the same reason the rule may just get changed—-making the waiver irrelevant.
(This post was last modified: 06-26-2019 10:32 PM by Attackcoog.)
06-26-2019 10:31 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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RE: Why the AAC will hold at 11
(06-26-2019 07:19 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  They will half to add a member or lose money, per the contract.... ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference...Sports Business Journal’s John Ourand reports in latest newsletter that ESPN now has the right to renegotiate the terms of the 12-year, $1 billion deal it signed with the conference back in March. Ourand writes that ESPN has a clause in the contract that allows it to open up the deal if a school left the conference.

With the deal taking effect in 2020-21, ESPN has time to mull over its options. The AAC does as well. The conference is reportedly looking at potential replacements, ranging from Army to Boise State.

Link
https://awfulannouncing.com/ncaa/espn-ca...rence.html


ESPN shows alot of UConn's women's basketball which draws viewers. ESPN losing them from the lineup could force the AAC to take a much a payout cuts down to $5 million a piece.
06-26-2019 11:47 PM
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Attackcoog Online
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RE: Why the AAC will hold at 11
(06-26-2019 11:47 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 07:19 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  They will half to add a member or lose money, per the contract.... ESPN can renegotiate new AAC TV deal with UConn leaving conference...Sports Business Journal’s John Ourand reports in latest newsletter that ESPN now has the right to renegotiate the terms of the 12-year, $1 billion deal it signed with the conference back in March. Ourand writes that ESPN has a clause in the contract that allows it to open up the deal if a school left the conference.

With the deal taking effect in 2020-21, ESPN has time to mull over its options. The AAC does as well. The conference is reportedly looking at potential replacements, ranging from Army to Boise State.

Link
https://awfulannouncing.com/ncaa/espn-ca...rence.html


ESPN shows alot of UConn's women's basketball which draws viewers. ESPN losing them from the lineup could force the AAC to take a much a payout cuts down to $5 million a piece.

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind UConn womens basketball is worth at least 24 million a year.
06-26-2019 11:55 PM
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