(06-25-2019 08:54 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(06-25-2019 08:36 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(06-25-2019 08:30 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(06-25-2019 07:27 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  There is no reason to rush into anything.

Anybody that the Big 12 would consider adding will be there in 4 years
Anybody that the AAC would consider adding will be there in 4 years

Candidates could strengthen their cases, or weaken them.

Agree on these points. Expansion will likely hit the "pause" button until 2025. If anything, the AAC has an open slot that will rise in value over time for those not named the P5. Let's see what cream rises consistently to the top. However, you wonder if there will be other programs that will make a strictly financial move to survive/focus primarily on either hoops or football like UConn did.

Open spots don't sit empty for long. The audition process has already happened while no one realized it was happening which is actually the best way to do it. That 12th spot will be filled as UConn leaves.

As a B1G fan you should know that there are exceptions to that rule. The Big Ten sat at 11 for what, 18 years? All they needed was one more school and it took until summer 2010 to invite Nebraska.

You can’t really use The Big Ten as an example. They weren’t replacing a member. The Big Ten was increasing conference size and was waiting for the right member to be available.

The key to the next round of conference alignment is The Big 12. TV negotiations will soon start for The Big 12. If the conference improves its media dollars, the current members will re-sign their expiring GOR.

Keep in mind that The Big 12 has only been dollar competitive with other P5 conferences because its media partners agreed to keep paying for 12 members while the Big 12 remained at 10 members.
I doubt the overpayment continues considering The Big 12’s recent performance on the field and court.

The future The Big 12 is presently in the hands of Texas and Oklahoma. The Big 10 and SEC might not be planning to expand in the near future but if either of these, or both, start looking around, all bets are off.

If they agree not to jump to realignment will take a long pause. If they jump The AAC will be looking for more members to replace than just UCONN.

If Texas and Oklahoma leave The Big 12, look for Kansas to jump as well. The Big 12 will add at least 4, up to as many as 7.

If The Big 12 is forced to add members. Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston, Central Florida and South Florida are gone from The AAC. Colorado State could jump from The MWC and BYU could join as well.

(06-25-2019 07:21 PM)msm96wolf Wrote:  

(06-25-2019 07:11 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Yes.

If the CCG rules remove divisonless round robin rule, yes. Which I think will happen with the conferences required to at least 9 conference games.

Who is going to require 9 conference games?

(06-25-2019 08:54 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(06-25-2019 08:36 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  

(06-25-2019 08:30 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(06-25-2019 07:27 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  There is no reason to rush into anything.

Anybody that the Big 12 would consider adding will be there in 4 years
Anybody that the AAC would consider adding will be there in 4 years

Candidates could strengthen their cases, or weaken them.

Agree on these points. Expansion will likely hit the "pause" button until 2025. If anything, the AAC has an open slot that will rise in value over time for those not named the P5. Let's see what cream rises consistently to the top. However, you wonder if there will be other programs that will make a strictly financial move to survive/focus primarily on either hoops or football like UConn did.

Open spots don't sit empty for long. The audition process has already happened while no one realized it was happening which is actually the best way to do it. That 12th spot will be filled as UConn leaves.

As a B1G fan you should know that there are exceptions to that rule. The Big Ten sat at 11 for what, 18 years? All they needed was one more school and it took until summer 2010 to invite Nebraska.

The OSU sat quiet because there was no need for divisions. They had no CCG and wanted none. Also several members including Ohio State and Michigan did not want expansion. It is a somewhat different situation today.

(06-26-2019 06:19 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  The key to the next round of conference alignment is The Big 12. TV negotiations will soon start for The Big 12. If the conference improves its media dollars, the current members will re-sign their expiring GOR.

Keep in mind that The Big 12 has only been dollar competitive with other P5 conferences because its media partners agreed to keep paying for 12 members while the Big 12 remained at 10 members.
I doubt the overpayment continues considering The Big 12’s recent performance on the field and court.

The future The Big 12 is presently in the hands of Texas and Oklahoma. The Big 10 and SEC might not be planning to expand in the near future but if either of these, or both, start looking around, all bets are off.

If they agree not to jump to realignment will take a long pause. If they jump The AAC will be looking for more members to replace than just UCONN.

If Texas and Oklahoma leave The Big 12, look for Kansas to jump as well. The Big 12 will add at least 4, up to as many as 7.

If The Big 12 is forced to add members. Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston, Central Florida and South Florida are gone from The AAC. Colorado State could jump from The MWC and BYU could join as well.

Big 12 performance has been great, but what has changed is that FOX is no longer interested. FOX failed to bid on three Big 12 championship games and allowed ESPN to walk away with the Big 12 T3 content for a song.
When it's just ESPN negotiating for Big 12 rights, those teams are going to get a haircut and Oklahoma and Texas will be out the door.

(06-25-2019 08:36 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  This UConn rejoining the BE could very well be the last realignment move of the decade.

UConn is now prepared at the drop of a hat to go FB-only to XII or ACC if it had to in the case of a P4 reshuffle.

Only 6 months and 5 days left in the decade.

What will affect college realignment in the future is if this California bill passes allowing student athletes to basically become professionals. This means getting paid for their image endorsements, hiring agents, etc. If this starts happening, all conferences are in for big changes. This very well will change college sports as we know it.

(06-26-2019 04:40 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(06-25-2019 09:04 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(06-25-2019 08:59 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-25-2019 08:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  1. Realignment has been the norm in college football throughout its history. Inactivity is the anomaly.

2. Schools opting out of the spending war will trigger adjustments.

3. More money (especially significantly more money) will trigger adjustments.

4. As factors that determine payouts change realignment will be triggered. Right now content is the only sure bet for larger payouts and for long term security for conferences, more so than the market model which is still viable for conference networks. As content additions are sought and streaming increases (which augments the need for content games) realignment will be triggered.

5. As extraneous factors such as the numbers of content games, and conference games, are slowly bargained away for incremental increases in revenue, leverage will become a greater need for conferences and the more schools you represent the greater leverage you will have. This may force a confederation of conferences, or simply trigger more realignment.

So no. Realignment is not over and never will be because all it is is a reaction to changing conditions in the marketplace.

Most or all of those issues are longer term issues.

To me the biggest long term issue is still the possible (inevitable?) collapse of the share-and-share-alike model for media revenue within a conference.

Suppose, at some point in time, Texas tells the rest of the Big 12, "We want to stay in the Big 12 and we want it to stay together, but from now on, we want to own our own media rights and we want to sell them on our own. Broadcast and streaming rights for every Texas Longhorns home game in every sport, every Longhorns highlight show, coaches' show, talking-head show, replays of "classic" games from the past, all of it. We hope our conference mates will all agree to this arrangement, but if not, we are prepared to make it happen outside of the Big 12." Or maybe they just settle for a model like in Spanish fútbol, where the two brands that have the most value by far get the lion's share of the league's TV money.

Won't happen. Texas can't stay married to a lot of schools without a large followings and earn what they think they are worth. Content will drive the market for some time to come now. And while that doesn't mean Texas has to play nothing but big brands, it does mean they have to play a significant proportion of games against much larger draws.

The issues I listed will always be with us and will be why Realignment in some form will continue.

Texas is not going to change their successful marketing model. Their formula has always been to play a Texas centric schedule, and that isn't going to change. What will change s how will the 'Horns get the flexibility in scheduling to continue with that formula.
Texas does not need to join the B1G in that they have enough marketing power to schedule Ohio State and Michigan (both of which they have on their future schedule) without having to put up with the rest of that league.
While the SEC has upgraded their academic performance, the perception is just not there to satisfy any Board of Regents or University President of a school with a large ego.
That only leaves west or east, and we all know that Texas isn't going west and with the ACC willing to allow and encourage the LHN and scheduling flexibility........the Longhorn's decision is a no brainer.

You are absolutely correct X. If Texas moves to the ACC it will be because they have no brain.

Being UConn is out, most of us think that more of the top schools from the AAC and maybe MW move to Big 12 after some of those B12 schools move to other conferences. Why would other teams from CUSA, Sunbelt, MAC would want to move to the AAC? I don't see a depleted AAC being better than the other G5 conferences especially when you factor in exit fees.

(06-26-2019 10:50 AM)kevinwmsn Wrote:  Being UConn is out, most of us think that more of the top schools from the AAC and maybe MW move to Big 12 after some of those B12 schools move to other conferences. Why would other teams from CUSA, Sunbelt, MAC would want to move to the AAC? I don't see a depleted AAC being better than the other G5 conferences especially when you factor in exit fees.

Depends on the school. I'm sure Rice and Southern Miss would love to join some old friends of theirs. Schools without any hard ties to schools in other conferences would and should be reluctant to move.

(06-26-2019 06:19 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  The key to the next round of conference alignment is The Big 12. TV negotiations will soon start for The Big 12. If the conference improves its media dollars, the current members will re-sign their expiring GOR.

Keep in mind that The Big 12 has only been dollar competitive with other P5 conferences because its media partners agreed to keep paying for 12 members while the Big 12 remained at 10 members.
I doubt the overpayment continues considering The Big 12’s recent performance on the field and court.

That is incorrect. The league deal wasn’t slashed for the last year or so of the deals prior to the current one when two teams left. The new deals were signed and negotiated with ten teams. There is no “paying for 12 with only 10” now and hasn’t been for close to a decade now.

(06-26-2019 06:19 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  The key to the next round of conference alignment is The Big 12. TV negotiations will soon start for The Big 12. If the conference improves its media dollars, the current members will re-sign their expiring GOR.

Keep in mind that The Big 12 has only been dollar competitive with other P5 conferences because its media partners agreed to keep paying for 12 members while the Big 12 remained at 10 members.
I doubt the overpayment continues considering The Big 12’s recent performance on the field and court.

The future The Big 12 is presently in the hands of Texas and Oklahoma. The Big 10 and SEC might not be planning to expand in the near future but if either of these, or both, start looking around, all bets are off.

If they agree not to jump to realignment will take a long pause. If they jump The AAC will be looking for more members to replace than just UCONN.

If Texas and Oklahoma leave The Big 12, look for Kansas to jump as well. The Big 12 will add at least 4, up to as many as 7.

If The Big 12 is forced to add members. Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston, Central Florida and South Florida are gone from The AAC. Colorado State could jump from The MWC and BYU could join as well.

At which point the XII loses its 'P' status and becomes a 'G' league. Maybe the AAC then does the poaching instead of B12.

I think you will see the western schools of the AAC and the rest of the Big 12 be together under the Big 12 brand one day.

(06-26-2019 11:33 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  

(06-26-2019 06:19 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  The key to the next round of conference alignment is The Big 12. TV negotiations will soon start for The Big 12. If the conference improves its media dollars, the current members will re-sign their expiring GOR.

Keep in mind that The Big 12 has only been dollar competitive with other P5 conferences because its media partners agreed to keep paying for 12 members while the Big 12 remained at 10 members.
I doubt the overpayment continues considering The Big 12’s recent performance on the field and court.

The future The Big 12 is presently in the hands of Texas and Oklahoma. The Big 10 and SEC might not be planning to expand in the near future but if either of these, or both, start looking around, all bets are off.

If they agree not to jump to realignment will take a long pause. If they jump The AAC will be looking for more members to replace than just UCONN.

If Texas and Oklahoma leave The Big 12, look for Kansas to jump as well. The Big 12 will add at least 4, up to as many as 7.

If The Big 12 is forced to add members. Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston, Central Florida and South Florida are gone from The AAC. Colorado State could jump from The MWC and BYU could join as well.

At which point the XII loses its 'P' status and becomes a 'G' league. Maybe the AAC then does the poaching instead of B12.

If The American is serious about remaining a viable conference Aresco needs to have everyone in the conference signing a GOR, contingent on Texas and Oklahoma leaving The Big 12. The GOR would only become valid if The Big 12 lost certain teams. Who would The Big 12 backfill with if American teams were locked up. The Big 12 without Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas isn’t better than The American without UCONN. That’s what Aresco needs to sell his teams.

(06-26-2019 12:11 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  If The American is serious about remaining a viable conference Aresco needs to have everyone in the conference signing a GOR, contingent on Texas and Oklahoma leaving The Big 12. The GOR would only become valid if The Big 12 lost certain teams. Who would The Big 12 backfill with if American teams were locked up. The Big 12 without Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas isn’t better than The American without UCONN. That’s what Aresco needs to sell his teams.

A conference with TTU, TCU, Baylor, OK State, KSU, ISU, and WVU is still more valuable than the AAC. In your scenario those seven would just add some combo of Cincinnati, Houston, SMU, Memphis, and the Florida schools.

(06-26-2019 11:24 AM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(06-26-2019 06:19 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  The key to the next round of conference alignment is The Big 12. TV negotiations will soon start for The Big 12. If the conference improves its media dollars, the current members will re-sign their expiring GOR.

Keep in mind that The Big 12 has only been dollar competitive with other P5 conferences because its media partners agreed to keep paying for 12 members while the Big 12 remained at 10 members.
I doubt the overpayment continues considering The Big 12’s recent performance on the field and court.

That is incorrect. The league deal wasn’t slashed for the last year or so of the deals prior to the current one when two teams left. The new deals were signed and negotiated with ten teams. There is no “paying for 12 with only 10” now and hasn’t been for close to a decade now.

No matter. Let’s see what happens this time around. The Big 12 has won nothing since the last contract. Hasn’t won a CFP game yet. No NCAA Basketball championships or baseball championships....

The Big 12 is a good conference but they have relied too much on Texas and Oklahoma’s history. Others in the conference need to step up.

(06-26-2019 12:18 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  

(06-26-2019 12:11 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  If The American is serious about remaining a viable conference Aresco needs to have everyone in the conference signing a GOR, contingent on Texas and Oklahoma leaving The Big 12. The GOR would only become valid if The Big 12 lost certain teams. Who would The Big 12 backfill with if American teams were locked up. The Big 12 without Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas isn’t better than The American without UCONN. That’s what Aresco needs to sell his teams.

A conference with TTU, TCU, Baylor, OK State, KSU, ISU, and WVU is still more valuable than the AAC. In your scenario those seven would just add some combo of Cincinnati, Houston, SMU, Memphis, and the Florida schools.

We’ll have to agree to disagree on that point, just don’t see it myself.

(06-26-2019 12:11 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(06-26-2019 11:33 AM)Ohio Poly Wrote:  

(06-26-2019 06:19 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  The key to the next round of conference alignment is The Big 12. TV negotiations will soon start for The Big 12. If the conference improves its media dollars, the current members will re-sign their expiring GOR.

Keep in mind that The Big 12 has only been dollar competitive with other P5 conferences because its media partners agreed to keep paying for 12 members while the Big 12 remained at 10 members.
I doubt the overpayment continues considering The Big 12’s recent performance on the field and court.

The future The Big 12 is presently in the hands of Texas and Oklahoma. The Big 10 and SEC might not be planning to expand in the near future but if either of these, or both, start looking around, all bets are off.

If they agree not to jump to realignment will take a long pause. If they jump The AAC will be looking for more members to replace than just UCONN.

If Texas and Oklahoma leave The Big 12, look for Kansas to jump as well. The Big 12 will add at least 4, up to as many as 7.

If The Big 12 is forced to add members. Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston, Central Florida and South Florida are gone from The AAC. Colorado State could jump from The MWC and BYU could join as well.

At which point the XII loses its 'P' status and becomes a 'G' league. Maybe the AAC then does the poaching instead of B12.

If The American is serious about remaining a viable conference Aresco needs to have everyone in the conference signing a GOR, contingent on Texas and Oklahoma leaving The Big 12. The GOR would only become valid if The Big 12 lost certain teams. Who would The Big 12 backfill with if American teams were locked up. The Big 12 without Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas isn’t better than The American without UCONN. That’s what Aresco needs to sell his teams.

Aresco is good but not that good. The remaining members of the B12 would still be better than the AAC without UCONN and if the better teams from the AAC went to join them then they would absolutely be in a better place "P" status or no. Houston, Memphis, Cincy, UCF, USF all know this. They won't sign anything stupid.

The B12 would still be the one doing the poaching. The problem would then be the AAC's. The logical thing would be to canbalize the best of CUSA and Sun Belt into East and West but all the remaining members of the AAC will want to keep their portion of the exit fees. How do you do that without remaining a single conference? I don't know.

Realignment will never die. There will always be a thirst for more money to quench.

No. "This is the song that never ends..."