RE: Who Does the AAC Invite to Replace UConn?
This thread should be done with. The topic has been exhausted. We are now getting repeats of repeats of the same "options".
Bottom line:
BYU, Army and Air Force are not on the table, and neither is any MWC school. In a nutshell the reasons:
BYU - requires downgrading schedule, costly buyouts, probably less money, less flexibility, no improvement in B12 chances
Army - like being Independent, already play Navy in December -conference affiliation might actually lessen game value.
Air Force - a western school, need Colorado State rivalry, already play Army and Navy. Olympic options of WAC/Summit unacceptable.
MWC Schools - supposed draw is better shot at P5, but move would put basketball in a lower conference, effectively DQs the school from future P5 consideration. The financial side is marginal at best, likely net negative when you take into account the costs side of the ledger.
AAC athletic budgets are in the range of $45-55M, which rules out all but a handful of G5 schools in the Eastern and Central time zones. The list of schools within shouting distance of the required budget levels are:
Rice (they are at the level)
UMass (maxed out on deficits, student and faculty near revolt, no football support on campus -- mirrors UConn)
ODU (financed on high student fees, maxed out there, still a startup in football)
FIU (again large student body, maxed out fees, zero football or basketball success)
UAB is the closest of all the rest, but would need a 50% rise in budget. Hard to see where that would come from, as the school only has 9,300 full time undergrads.
Distilled, basically only Rice can actually afford to join. It's a stretch for ODU, which is still a football start up, and this is about football.
On the Basketball side VCU seems the obvious choice. But Basketball doesn't need another school, the ones they have are more than good enough, this is basically a 2-3 bid team conference every year; why spit it the credits a 12th way. Further, the last thing the American needs to do is go down the two path road the old Big East did (it doesn't work). Keep it compact and focused.
Then there is the ESPN factor. Any school proposed has to be blessed by ESPN. It is hard to see ESPN saying yes to anyone other than BYU, Army, or Boise State who are all off the table.
They stay at 11 and get a waiver to host the CCG. (First waiver is automatic per the 2 years to get in compliance, so they are good through 2021 Football season without any politicking. It's hard to see the AAC not getting a 4 years renewal agreed to since ESPN wants the CCG and 7 of the 10 CCGs are ESPN/ABC properties, and they are major partners with two of the other three conferences; nobody wants to cross ESPN, so that waiver should be automatic. Never mind whether Division-less football passes, it's not yet necessary.)
So it's 11.
|