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Poll: Who Does the AAC Invite to Replace UConn?
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UMass 5.71% 6 5.71%
Buffalo 10.48% 11 10.48%
Old Dominion 14.29% 15 14.29%
Southern Mississippi 10.48% 11 10.48%
UTSA 1.90% 2 1.90%
Army 10.48% 11 10.48%
UConn (football only) 2.86% 3 2.86%
Other 43.81% 46 43.81%
Total 105 vote(s) 100%
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Who Does the AAC Invite to Replace UConn?
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RutgersGuy Offline
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Post: #121
RE: Who Does the AAC Invite to Replace UConn?
(06-25-2019 03:50 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  1. BYU
2. Army
3. Stay at 11 teams

ESPN will get you back to 12 one way or another. I don't think BYU is in the cards though. They wouldn't get rid of their Sunday rule for the old Big East or the Big XII so I don't see them doing it for the AAC.
06-25-2019 05:03 PM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #122
RE: Who Does the AAC Invite to Replace UConn?
(06-25-2019 05:03 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(06-25-2019 03:50 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  1. BYU
2. Army
3. Stay at 11 teams

ESPN will get you back to 12 one way or another. I don't think BYU is in the cards though. They wouldn't get rid of their Sunday rule for the old Big East or the Big XII so I don't see them doing it for the AAC.

Pretty sure if they were football only (which from an interview I listened to from McMurphy with some BYU guys is all that would be on the table) that won't matter.
06-25-2019 05:21 PM
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army56mike Offline
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Post: #123
RE: Who Does the AAC Invite to Replace UConn?
Heard they were inviting a real sleeper darkhorse..... Oaxaca Parish Convent of the Immaculate Heart Sisters Ladies of Guadalupe University College..... The Fighting Encarnacions.
(This post was last modified: 06-25-2019 05:29 PM by army56mike.)
06-25-2019 05:26 PM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #124
RE: Who Does the AAC Invite to Replace UConn?
(06-25-2019 05:00 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(06-25-2019 01:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-25-2019 01:28 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(06-25-2019 12:46 PM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  "P6 Brand" ..... really? There's like 6 schools total, that fit the P6 Brand. That's still a punch line to the rest of the country.

We're talking about replacing a crap-tastic football program in UConn.

No Mountain West School will jump to join the AAC.
BYU will not jump to join the AAC.
Army will not join ANY conference. They tried that, and discovered it doesn't fit them ... at all.

Of the remaining G5 conferences, CUSA, Sun Belt, and MAC .... take the highest rated champion that fits the rest of the AAC best.

That's UAB. Throw in ... Brand spanking new football stadium being constructed right now. 45,000 seats. In the heart of Alabama in a city that watches college football more than any other in the country. Rivalry with Memphis. Former conference mate with several in the AAC.

AAC should add UAB and be happy they can. It's an instant upgrade over UConn.

I say this as someone who donated to a UAB fund after the disbandment happened, you can not trust that the Alabama BOT won't try to pull some nonsense again in the future. The fact that they even made it back as a program and have had the success they've had is amazing, but the number of times they've tried to pull nonsense to kill UAB athletics is too numerous to count. Whenever I think that the UNC BOT has it out for ECU I always think to myself at least it's not as bad as what UAB deals with. As for who the AAC is going to add it's probably no one. I think there are slightly better odds than you do of one of the group of BYU, Army, or Air Force joining, but gun to my head I say none join, and no one else moves the needle at all. I don't see any reason ESPN wants to pay any school from the MAC/Sun Belt, who's content they pretty much own for nothing, near 7 million a year just to change patches on the jersey. I also don't see ESPN having any urge to pay near 7 million a year for any current C-USA school when their entire TV deal isn't worth that per year in total.

I think ESPN wants the full 12 team AAC. The more teams, the more fan bases, the more ESPN+ subscriptions. My guess is they tell the AAC---add a 12th or get your deal cut. Im sure they have a list of teams that they would prefer....lol----and Im sure the AAC will do as its told.

EXACTLY! Some folks seem to think ESPN wont stick their nose in like they haven't been paying attention to any college realignment for the last 15 years.

Oh I fully expect ESPN to stick their nose in this, which is exactly why I'm saying it's not going to be a MAC/Sun Belt/CUSA team. ESPN fully owns all the content for the MAC/Sun Belt for almost nothing, so there's zero incentive to change the patch on the jersey and pay them multiple times more. I highly doubt ESPN wants to pay that type of money for any C-USA school either when their deal is worth less than the per team share the AAC just signed. The most ESPN move possible quite honestly would be facilitating BYU, Army, or Air Force into the league. Each helps out ESPN in different ways. BYU they basically just eliminate having to pay them their own independent TV deal while essentially keeping the AAC TV contract the same as they just signed. Army they get to add a bunch of new content that they currently have no rights to for the same cost as the current AAC TV deal. Air Force they get to lock in their rights for the same price as the current AAC TV deal and greatly weaken the MWC who's trying to renegotiate and get a raise (which is the most ESPN thing to do to raid a league right as they are about to hit the market).
06-25-2019 05:28 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #125
RE: Who Does the AAC Invite to Replace UConn?
ESPN can’t force a team to join the conference. Is Air Force that big of a splash? Who here watches Air Force games? Does anybody even go out of their way to watch Air Force-Army or Air Force-Navy?

No. The answer is no.

Oh, another thing. Air Force isn’t ejecting their Olympic sports out of the cockpit for AAC football membership. This is the most important point.
06-25-2019 06:12 PM
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RutgersGuy Offline
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Post: #126
RE: Who Does the AAC Invite to Replace UConn?
(06-25-2019 05:28 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(06-25-2019 05:00 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(06-25-2019 01:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-25-2019 01:28 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(06-25-2019 12:46 PM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  "P6 Brand" ..... really? There's like 6 schools total, that fit the P6 Brand. That's still a punch line to the rest of the country.

We're talking about replacing a crap-tastic football program in UConn.

No Mountain West School will jump to join the AAC.
BYU will not jump to join the AAC.
Army will not join ANY conference. They tried that, and discovered it doesn't fit them ... at all.

Of the remaining G5 conferences, CUSA, Sun Belt, and MAC .... take the highest rated champion that fits the rest of the AAC best.

That's UAB. Throw in ... Brand spanking new football stadium being constructed right now. 45,000 seats. In the heart of Alabama in a city that watches college football more than any other in the country. Rivalry with Memphis. Former conference mate with several in the AAC.

AAC should add UAB and be happy they can. It's an instant upgrade over UConn.

I say this as someone who donated to a UAB fund after the disbandment happened, you can not trust that the Alabama BOT won't try to pull some nonsense again in the future. The fact that they even made it back as a program and have had the success they've had is amazing, but the number of times they've tried to pull nonsense to kill UAB athletics is too numerous to count. Whenever I think that the UNC BOT has it out for ECU I always think to myself at least it's not as bad as what UAB deals with. As for who the AAC is going to add it's probably no one. I think there are slightly better odds than you do of one of the group of BYU, Army, or Air Force joining, but gun to my head I say none join, and no one else moves the needle at all. I don't see any reason ESPN wants to pay any school from the MAC/Sun Belt, who's content they pretty much own for nothing, near 7 million a year just to change patches on the jersey. I also don't see ESPN having any urge to pay near 7 million a year for any current C-USA school when their entire TV deal isn't worth that per year in total.

I think ESPN wants the full 12 team AAC. The more teams, the more fan bases, the more ESPN+ subscriptions. My guess is they tell the AAC---add a 12th or get your deal cut. Im sure they have a list of teams that they would prefer....lol----and Im sure the AAC will do as its told.

EXACTLY! Some folks seem to think ESPN wont stick their nose in like they haven't been paying attention to any college realignment for the last 15 years.

Oh I fully expect ESPN to stick their nose in this, which is exactly why I'm saying it's not going to be a MAC/Sun Belt/CUSA team. ESPN fully owns all the content for the MAC/Sun Belt for almost nothing, so there's zero incentive to change the patch on the jersey and pay them multiple times more. I highly doubt ESPN wants to pay that type of money for any C-USA school either when their deal is worth less than the per team share the AAC just signed. The most ESPN move possible quite honestly would be facilitating BYU, Army, or Air Force into the league. Each helps out ESPN in different ways. BYU they basically just eliminate having to pay them their own independent TV deal while essentially keeping the AAC TV contract the same as they just signed. Army they get to add a bunch of new content that they currently have no rights to for the same cost as the current AAC TV deal. Air Force they get to lock in their rights for the same price as the current AAC TV deal and greatly weaken the MWC who's trying to renegotiate and get a raise (which is the most ESPN thing to do to raid a league right as they are about to hit the market).

But BYU has a great Indy schedule that would lose value when replaced with a AAC schedule. They have lots of games against P5 opponents and the P5 schools count games against BYU as P5 games so those conferences wont want those games to go away. Not to mention the fact that BYU wouldn't get a full share if they are FB only and would be making less money with the move. I think BYU isn't even talking the phone call from the AAC. They need to be in a power conference or indy because Utah is in a power conference.
06-25-2019 06:13 PM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #127
RE: Who Does the AAC Invite to Replace UConn?
(06-25-2019 06:12 PM)esayem Wrote:  ESPN can’t force a team to join the conference. Is Air Force that big of a splash? Who here watches Air Force games? Does anybody even go out of their way to watch Air Force-Army or Air Force-Navy?

No. The answer is no.

Oh, another thing. Air Force isn’t ejecting their Olympic sports out of the cockpit for AAC football membership. This is the most important point.

I'd have Air Force 3rd of the 3 options, but miles ahead of any C-USA/MAC/Sun Belt school. Do you think there's any school in those 3 leagues ESPN cares enough about to pay 7 million a year to join the AAC? We all know the answer to that question is no, so it's either going to be 1 of BYU/Army/Air Force or (most likely) the league stays at 11.
06-25-2019 09:46 PM
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Foreverandever Offline
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Post: #128
RE: Who Does the AAC Invite to Replace UConn?
(06-25-2019 06:13 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(06-25-2019 05:28 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  
(06-25-2019 05:00 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(06-25-2019 01:36 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-25-2019 01:28 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  I say this as someone who donated to a UAB fund after the disbandment happened, you can not trust that the Alabama BOT won't try to pull some nonsense again in the future. The fact that they even made it back as a program and have had the success they've had is amazing, but the number of times they've tried to pull nonsense to kill UAB athletics is too numerous to count. Whenever I think that the UNC BOT has it out for ECU I always think to myself at least it's not as bad as what UAB deals with. As for who the AAC is going to add it's probably no one. I think there are slightly better odds than you do of one of the group of BYU, Army, or Air Force joining, but gun to my head I say none join, and no one else moves the needle at all. I don't see any reason ESPN wants to pay any school from the MAC/Sun Belt, who's content they pretty much own for nothing, near 7 million a year just to change patches on the jersey. I also don't see ESPN having any urge to pay near 7 million a year for any current C-USA school when their entire TV deal isn't worth that per year in total.

I think ESPN wants the full 12 team AAC. The more teams, the more fan bases, the more ESPN+ subscriptions. My guess is they tell the AAC---add a 12th or get your deal cut. Im sure they have a list of teams that they would prefer....lol----and Im sure the AAC will do as its told.

EXACTLY! Some folks seem to think ESPN wont stick their nose in like they haven't been paying attention to any college realignment for the last 15 years.

Oh I fully expect ESPN to stick their nose in this, which is exactly why I'm saying it's not going to be a MAC/Sun Belt/CUSA team. ESPN fully owns all the content for the MAC/Sun Belt for almost nothing, so there's zero incentive to change the patch on the jersey and pay them multiple times more. I highly doubt ESPN wants to pay that type of money for any C-USA school either when their deal is worth less than the per team share the AAC just signed. The most ESPN move possible quite honestly would be facilitating BYU, Army, or Air Force into the league. Each helps out ESPN in different ways. BYU they basically just eliminate having to pay them their own independent TV deal while essentially keeping the AAC TV contract the same as they just signed. Army they get to add a bunch of new content that they currently have no rights to for the same cost as the current AAC TV deal. Air Force they get to lock in their rights for the same price as the current AAC TV deal and greatly weaken the MWC who's trying to renegotiate and get a raise (which is the most ESPN thing to do to raid a league right as they are about to hit the market).
[B]
But BYU has a great Indy schedule that would lose value when replaced with a AAC schedule. They have lots of games against P5 opponents and the P5 schools count games against BYU as P5 games so those conferences wont want those games to go away. Not to mention the fact that BYU wouldn't get a full share if they are FB only and would be making less money with the move. I think BYU isn't even talking the phone call from the AAC. They need to be in a power conference or indy because Utah is in a power conference.

BYU makes between 4-7 million a year on football reportedly, it varies depending on if its ESPN or ESPN2 that shows the game. Navy a fb only member will make 5.5 million a year in TV money. They also have a real shot at a NY6.

You are kinda right on the schedule, it's pretty full, buy outs for games will cost, it's half and half roughly for p5/g5

2019 (4 p5, 1 AAC)
08/29 - Utah
09/07 - at Tennessee
09/14 - USC
09/21 - Washington
09/28 - at Toledo
10/12 - at USF
10/19 - Boise State
11/02 - at Utah State
11/09 - Liberty
11/16 - Idaho State
11/23 - at UMass
11/30 - at San Diego State


2020 (6 p5, 1 AAC)
09/05 - at Utah
09/12 - Michigan State
09/19 - at Arizona State
09/26 - at Minnesota
10/02 - Utah State
10/10 - Missouri
10/17 - Houston
10/24 - at Northern Illinois
11/07 - at Boise State
11/14 - San Diego State
11/21 - North Alabama
11/28 - at Stanford


2021 (7 p5, 1 AAC)
09/02 - vs Arizona (in Las Vegas, NV)
09/11 - Utah
09/18 - Arizona State
09/24 - USF
10/01 - at Utah State
10/09 - Boise State
10/16 - at Baylor
10/23 - at Washington State
10/30 - Virginia
11/13 - Idaho State
11/20 - at Georgia Southern
11/27 - at USC


2022 (5 p5, 1 AAC)
09/03 - at Utah
09/10 - Baylor
09/17 - at Oregon
09/24 - Wyoming
09/30 - Utah State
10/15 - Arkansas
10/22 - at Liberty
11/05 - at Boise State
11/12 - Dixie State
11/19 - East Carolina
11/26 - at Stanford


2023 (6 p5, 1 AAC)
09/02 - Tennessee
09/09 - at Virginia
09/16 - Utah
09/23 - at Arkansas
10/07 - at Houston
10/14 - Boise State
11/04 - UNLV
11/25 - at USC
TBA - Stanford


2024 (2 p5, 1 AAC)
09/07 - at Utah
09/14 - Hawaii
09/28 - at Wyoming
10/12 - Georgia Southern
10/19 - at East Carolina
11/02 - at UNLV
11/09 - at NC State


2025 (3 p5)
09/06 - at Hawaii
09/13 - Stanford
09/20 - Minnesota
11/01 - Virginia

Their schedule is tough in 2020, 2021, and 2023 with 6,7, and 6 games for the p5. They would mostly be upgrading though with an AAC conference schedule and keeping four of those p5 games. Moving some games around they could probably make one or two of those years work out for conference play. Even buying out the games against teams other than the p5 will be steep. They do have an AAC opponent some years.

Waiting till 2022 makes more sense and might actually be workable. They could bump one p5 team back to 2025. Then it's just 3 g5 games and an fcs

2023 is only 9 games right now, but they probably would have to buy out one p5 game and bump one a few years. Then buy out 2 games.

2024 it gets a lot easier, only 7 games total, one is an aac team, so buy out or bump Georgia Southern and UNLV and they are good to go.

So at least one p5 buy out and two who are willing to take a later game and eight g5 buy outs. That's a hefty bill.
06-25-2019 11:28 PM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #129
RE: Who Does the AAC Invite to Replace UConn?
Air Force/Denver to the WCC for basketball/olympic sports

Air Force football to AAC West. Memphis to the East.

Air Force may find a mostly private school division with Navy attractive as well as the WCC more suitable for their non football needs. Gonzaga and BYU wouldnt mind Air Force basketball and Denver makes a nice travel partner for the CA private schools worries about travel to CO.

Make it happen ESPN
06-26-2019 12:05 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #130
RE: Who Does the AAC Invite to Replace UConn?
(06-26-2019 12:05 AM)solohawks Wrote:  Air Force/Denver to the WCC for basketball/olympic sports

Air Force football to AAC West. Memphis to the East.

Air Force may find a mostly private school division with Navy attractive as well as the WCC more suitable for their non football needs. Gonzaga and BYU wouldnt mind Air Force basketball and Denver makes a nice travel partner for the CA private schools worries about travel to CO.

Make it happen ESPN

That’s not a horrible idea and you’ve probably created the best scenario, but how is the WCC more appealing than their current situation? They’ve been playing MWC teams since they were D-1 and those are established rivalries and connections. So much so they spearheaded a new conference to continue them.
06-26-2019 08:59 AM
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solohawks Offline
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Post: #131
RE: Who Does the AAC Invite to Replace UConn?
(06-26-2019 08:59 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 12:05 AM)solohawks Wrote:  Air Force/Denver to the WCC for basketball/olympic sports

Air Force football to AAC West. Memphis to the East.

Air Force may find a mostly private school division with Navy attractive as well as the WCC more suitable for their non football needs. Gonzaga and BYU wouldnt mind Air Force basketball and Denver makes a nice travel partner for the CA private schools worries about travel to CO.

Make it happen ESPN

That’s not a horrible idea and you’ve probably created the best scenario, but how is the WCC more appealing than their current situation? They’ve been playing MWC teams since they were D-1 and those are established rivalries and connections. So much so they spearheaded a new conference to continue them.

For non football, air force looked at moving away from the MWC. I think the WCC would be a good fit for a western service academy
06-26-2019 11:19 AM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #132
RE: Who Does the AAC Invite to Replace UConn?
(06-26-2019 12:05 AM)solohawks Wrote:  Air Force/Denver to the WCC for basketball/olympic sports

Air Force football to AAC West. Memphis to the East.

Air Force may find a mostly private school division with Navy attractive as well as the WCC more suitable for their non football needs. Gonzaga and BYU wouldnt mind Air Force basketball and Denver makes a nice travel partner for the CA private schools worries about travel to CO.

Make it happen ESPN

Why would Gonzaga allow this? Adding two more horrid basketball teams does nothing for the WCC.
06-26-2019 12:23 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #133
RE: Who Does the AAC Invite to Replace UConn?
NET Ratings last year:

Air Force 242
Denver 324

Only Portland in the WCC was worse than either one of these.


Air Force and Denver - Not WCC candidates
06-26-2019 12:28 PM
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Post: #134
RE: Who Does the AAC Invite to Replace UConn?
(06-25-2019 09:06 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  ODU would improve their football once they get exposure on ESPN instead of CBSsports. I see more of an upside to ODU and not UAB. UAB needs to upped their spending to join the AAC, but they are handcuff into not spending more money. Virginia is a hotbed for basketball recruits. ODU would get the AAC exposure to recruit from the state. AAC football is not the only thing that they want to be up there. AAC wants to get basketball up there for the P6 status. ODU would help in that department.

They said the same thing about FBS.
06-26-2019 12:46 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #135
RE: Who Does the AAC Invite to Replace UConn?
This thread should be done with. The topic has been exhausted. We are now getting repeats of repeats of the same "options".

Bottom line:

BYU, Army and Air Force are not on the table, and neither is any MWC school. In a nutshell the reasons:

BYU - requires downgrading schedule, costly buyouts, probably less money, less flexibility, no improvement in B12 chances
Army - like being Independent, already play Navy in December -conference affiliation might actually lessen game value.
Air Force - a western school, need Colorado State rivalry, already play Army and Navy. Olympic options of WAC/Summit unacceptable.
MWC Schools - supposed draw is better shot at P5, but move would put basketball in a lower conference, effectively DQs the school from future P5 consideration. The financial side is marginal at best, likely net negative when you take into account the costs side of the ledger.

AAC athletic budgets are in the range of $45-55M, which rules out all but a handful of G5 schools in the Eastern and Central time zones. The list of schools within shouting distance of the required budget levels are:

Rice (they are at the level)
UMass (maxed out on deficits, student and faculty near revolt, no football support on campus -- mirrors UConn)
ODU (financed on high student fees, maxed out there, still a startup in football)
FIU (again large student body, maxed out fees, zero football or basketball success)

UAB is the closest of all the rest, but would need a 50% rise in budget. Hard to see where that would come from, as the school only has 9,300 full time undergrads.

Distilled, basically only Rice can actually afford to join. It's a stretch for ODU, which is still a football start up, and this is about football.

On the Basketball side VCU seems the obvious choice. But Basketball doesn't need another school, the ones they have are more than good enough, this is basically a 2-3 bid team conference every year; why spit it the credits a 12th way. Further, the last thing the American needs to do is go down the two path road the old Big East did (it doesn't work). Keep it compact and focused.

Then there is the ESPN factor. Any school proposed has to be blessed by ESPN. It is hard to see ESPN saying yes to anyone other than BYU, Army, or Boise State who are all off the table.

They stay at 11 and get a waiver to host the CCG. (First waiver is automatic per the 2 years to get in compliance, so they are good through 2021 Football season without any politicking. It's hard to see the AAC not getting a 4 years renewal agreed to since ESPN wants the CCG and 7 of the 10 CCGs are ESPN/ABC properties, and they are major partners with two of the other three conferences; nobody wants to cross ESPN, so that waiver should be automatic. Never mind whether Division-less football passes, it's not yet necessary.)

So it's 11.
06-26-2019 01:05 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #136
RE: Who Does the AAC Invite to Replace UConn?
(06-26-2019 01:05 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  On the Basketball side VCU seems the obvious choice. But Basketball doesn't need another school, the ones they have are more than good enough, this is basically a 2-3 bid team conference every year; why spit it the credits a 12th way. Further, the last thing the American needs to do is go down the two path road the old Big East did (it doesn't work). Keep it compact and focused.

Not sure I agree with that. Losing UConn football doesn't affect the AAC especially much, but UConn basketball (even given their recent rough patch) is a signature program that's gone. Sure, they'll still get multiple bids, but they can improve their odds for more of them with the right No. 12, whether that's VCU or a decent program from an all-sports member. And while this may not be a driving factor, effectively telling the world "we lost a strong program you've heard of and replaced them with nothing" is not a great look and doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in their long-term viability.

Quote:Then there is the ESPN factor. Any school proposed has to be blessed by ESPN. It is hard to see ESPN saying yes to anyone other than BYU, Army, or Boise State who are all off the table.

They stay at 11 and get a waiver to host the CCG. (First waiver is automatic per the 2 years to get in compliance, so they are good through 2021 Football season without any politicking. It's hard to see the AAC not getting a 4 years renewal agreed to since ESPN wants the CCG and 7 of the 10 CCGs are ESPN/ABC properties, and they are major partners with two of the other three conferences; nobody wants to cross ESPN, so that waiver should be automatic. Never mind whether Division-less football passes, it's not yet necessary.)

So it's 11.

If the ESPN contract is not going to be prorated with the loss of a program, then they're not going to be happy paying the same price for less inventory. Think of it like going to the donut shop for a variety 12-pack. If they're out of the Boston creme, they don't tell you to accept the 11 donuts, pay the same price and then go screw. I have no doubt that the AAC schools would love to divvy up UConn's share of the pie among themselves and move on, but it's not a unilateral decision. If ESPN is still paying $1 billion over the life of the contract, they're not going to accept fewer games for the same price, unless there's no 12th team that can even tread water for them.
06-26-2019 01:19 PM
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b0ndsj0ns Offline
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Post: #137
RE: Who Does the AAC Invite to Replace UConn?
(06-26-2019 01:19 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  
(06-26-2019 01:05 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  On the Basketball side VCU seems the obvious choice. But Basketball doesn't need another school, the ones they have are more than good enough, this is basically a 2-3 bid team conference every year; why spit it the credits a 12th way. Further, the last thing the American needs to do is go down the two path road the old Big East did (it doesn't work). Keep it compact and focused.

Not sure I agree with that. Losing UConn football doesn't affect the AAC especially much, but UConn basketball (even given their recent rough patch) is a signature program that's gone. Sure, they'll still get multiple bids, but they can improve their odds for more of them with the right No. 12, whether that's VCU or a decent program from an all-sports member. And while this may not be a driving factor, effectively telling the world "we lost a strong program you've heard of and replaced them with nothing" is not a great look and doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in their long-term viability.

Quote:Then there is the ESPN factor. Any school proposed has to be blessed by ESPN. It is hard to see ESPN saying yes to anyone other than BYU, Army, or Boise State who are all off the table.

They stay at 11 and get a waiver to host the CCG. (First waiver is automatic per the 2 years to get in compliance, so they are good through 2021 Football season without any politicking. It's hard to see the AAC not getting a 4 years renewal agreed to since ESPN wants the CCG and 7 of the 10 CCGs are ESPN/ABC properties, and they are major partners with two of the other three conferences; nobody wants to cross ESPN, so that waiver should be automatic. Never mind whether Division-less football passes, it's not yet necessary.)

So it's 11.

If the ESPN contract is not going to be prorated with the loss of a program, then they're not going to be happy paying the same price for less inventory. Think of it like going to the donut shop for a variety 12-pack. If they're out of the Boston creme, they don't tell you to accept the 11 donuts, pay the same price and then go screw. I have no doubt that the AAC schools would love to divvy up UConn's share of the pie among themselves and move on, but it's not a unilateral decision. If ESPN is still paying $1 billion over the life of the contract, they're not going to accept fewer games for the same price, unless there's no 12th team that can even tread water for them.

I expect the contract gets prorated down 1/12 or so. Just as I'd be stunned if the AAC adds a member that isn't one of the usual suspects mentioned I'd be just as stunned if the deal actually stayed completely in tact and each school just split up UCONN's share.
06-26-2019 03:03 PM
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