IF the AAC can get a waiver to skip just the 1 division game solely on the basis of having 11 members, then they can mathematically guarantee that the top 2 teams in the conference meet for the Conference Championship.

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1. Every team has 6 permanent rivals and alternates the other 4 every other year for 8 conference games apiece.

2. The 2 conference opponents skipped in a given year follows the following pattern. Neighboring teams are skipped:
Odd numbered years: A-B-C-D-E-F-G-H-I-J-K-A
Even numbered years: A-I-G-E-B-D-F-C-K-H-J-A
so team G, for example, skips F and H in odd numbered years and I and E in even numbered years.

If A and G are the top two teams, the "divisions" (for purposes of determining division champs and the round-robin conditions thereof) might look like this
Odd years (div 1) A,C,E,F,H,J
Odd years (div 2) B,D,G,I,K
Even years (div 1) A,I,E,D,C,H
Even years (div 2) G,B,F,K,J

In the odd year example, only division-mates E and F did not play each other, satisfying the conditions of the waiver.
In the even year example, only division-mates A and I did not play each other, satisfying the conditions of the waiver.

The actual make-up of the divisions is moot (any of several permutations would satisfy the constraints), as any 2 teams can ALWAYS be paired in the CCG. Conference standings would be listed in one table. The nitty-gritty would then be determining tie-breakers when not all teams have played one another.

Depends on who/what is fiscally worth it.

I think the biggest reason they would need to expand is to get back up to 48 conference football games, from 44. TV volume.

Air Force football only makes sense for 12 in football.
Eleven in basketball is fine .

You can have an AAC with a division of 5 and a division of 6 and still play a full round robin within both divisions. It's just that 2 teams in the division of 5 end up playing only 7 conference games instead of 8. (For everyone to have 8 games, those 2 teams could play each other a second time, but this is probably not desirable.) The teams that play only 7 games can be rotated every year. Ranking by conference record would have to be based on winning percentage rather than simply wins and losses.

Navy's condition for joining was to be in the West Division, they wanted to play games in the central time zone -- the Navy is more popular the farther you get from the ocean (look at the recruiting numbers, strange but true).

Make a simple tie breaker rule and follow it
1. best conference record
2. head to head
3. higher ranked team
4. vote by ADs if neither ranked, excluding the two schools involved

If all things are equal, the odds that the two teams that did not play each other head to head winding up tied and in first place is no better than 1 in 30 (simple combinatorics). But in reality the chances are even lower. I would not worry much about that, it's unlikely to happen in the next 5 or 6 years.

For scheduling Navy is the logical school to be odd many out for the first 5 years. Their big games are non-conference (Army, Notre Dame, Air Force). They are an equal "rival" to every school in the American. So playing 4 East and 4 West in rotation is fine. In five years they would have hosted each school twice and visited each school twice.

I would not plan past that. Largely because the B12 realignment is looming and everything could change. One cycle is all you need to get through. Anytime in the next 6 years an acceptable member can be found you can go to 12. But yes, you need a plan in the meantime.

(06-22-2019 11:11 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Navy's condition for joining was to be in the West Division, they wanted to play games in the central time zone -- the Navy is more popular the farther you get from the ocean (look at the recruiting numbers, strange but true).

Make a simple tie breaker rule and follow it
1. best conference record
2. head to head
3. higher ranked team
4. vote by ADs if neither ranked, excluding the two schools involved

If all things are equal, the odds that the two teams that did not play each other head to head winding up tied and in first place is no better than 1 in 30 (simple combinatorics). But in reality the chances are even lower. I would not worry much about that, it's unlikely to happen in the next 5 or 6 years.

For scheduling Navy is the logical school to be odd many out for the first 5 years. Their big games are non-conference (Army, Notre Dame, Air Force). They are an equal "rival" to every school in the American. So playing 4 East and 4 West in rotation is fine. In five years they would have hosted each school twice and visited each school twice.

I would not plan past that. Largely because the B12 realignment is looming and everything could change. One cycle is all you need to get through. Anytime in the next 6 years an acceptable member can be found you can go to 12. But yes, you need a plan in the meantime.

The AAC does not have the leverage to compel the NCAA to allow a CCG without a full round robin, especially considering the wide ranging consequences that would spring from such a decision. And as mentioned above, it's perfectly possible to have a round robin with divisions of 5 and 6.

My understanding was that Navy specifically wanted to play in Texas. Given their current inflexibility in scheduling OOC, I think they'd prefer to keep playing all 5 opponents in the West Division so as to keep both Texas schools on the schedule.

And actually, I think this is an opportunity for Navy to gracefully back out of the AAC, perhaps arranging for a certain number of games (less than 8) to be played against AAC members each year.

Air Force is not coming without Colorado State. BYU is not coming as long as Utah is in a true power conference. Boise State or San Diego State may come, but they have resisted overtures since the almost-marriage in 2012. If there was ever going to be a MWC-raid, it would have happened in advance of the AAC's TV deal with ESPN (not as a response to UConn leaving).

I would think the realistic targets would be as follows:
1. Army (FB-only)/VCU (Olympic) - solid FB/BB combo
2. Marshall
3. Old Dominion
4. UAB
5. Southern Mississippi

If Army/VCU say no, or do not work, I wouldn't be surprised to see the AAC stay at 11, and spread UConn's share to the membership.

Add whoever ESPN says to add. BYU is also an ESPN property, so maybe they broker a deal.

Only ODU is spending at the AAC levels.

AAC needs to add another football school for the tv deal they got.

Army still says no.
Marshall is too small a market.
BYU will not go.
Boise and San Diego too far west.
Air Force no. They are happy with the front range schools.

ODU is at AAC spending already.
UMass to get back the academics prestige.
Southern Miss. one of the last few CUSA schools not in the AAC.
Then there is a steep drop off from there.

Old Dominion come on down.

Looks like my prediction of ODU being the next C-USA school to move up might be correct. They remind me of UCF ten years ago.

Army might be interested this time.

(06-22-2019 11:27 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Air Force is not coming without Colorado State. BYU is not coming as long as Utah is in a true power conference. Boise State or San Diego State may come, but they have resisted overtures since the almost-marriage in 2012. If there was ever going to be a MWC-raid, it would have happened in advance of the AAC's TV deal with ESPN (not as a response to UConn leaving).

I would think the realistic targets would be as follows:
1. Army (FB-only)/VCU (Olympic) - solid FB/BB combo
2. Marshall
3. Old Dominion
4. UAB
5. Southern Mississippi

If Army/VCU say no, or do not work, I wouldn't be surprised to see the AAC stay at 11, and spread UConn's share to the membership.

I think you’ll see 4 options as finalists:
1. Army/VCU
2. ODU
3. UAB
4. Nothing

Marshall/USM unfortunately don’t have the market/recruiting territory that every other AAC add but ECU has had.

UAB & ODU are building their stadiums at the perfect time.

BYU is not coming. They have no need or interest in ripping up their schedule of 30 P5 opponents in the next 6 years. ESPN does not control BYU, they are not the primary source of income, the LDS Church is. The new BYU contract will get is comparable to the AAC already and only for football. There is zero need and zero leverage here.

As for a rule change:

ESPN is the leverage to give the AAC an exception from the full round robin. ESPN is the controlling partner with the SEC, ACC, MAC and the majority holder now in the B12 as well as partner with the B1G, P12 and even MWC. An exception keeps things stable and the genie in the bottle. All the conference want stability.

When you look at the schools the American would want most, you are looking in the Rockies to the Pacific Coast. But they don't want their Olympic sports. And none will come to a non power conference, even for $4M more a year (their budgets are getting above $50M now, so less than 8% of their budget here), when they have to put their Olympic sports in the Summit, WAC, Big Sky or Big West and in some cases pay a travel fee for the privilege of slumming.

To give you easterners a comparable situation, would Cincy or Temple or UCF join the MWC if it meant dumping their Olympics in the Horizon, ASUN, AEC or Big South for an extra $4M a year?

I have to make that comparison because most of you guys are easterners and you have real trouble wrapping your head around what that means to your other programs, and what your alumni and fan base reaction would be to Cincy MBB playing the likes of Clevland State, NKU, Oakland in the Horizon or Temple playing the AEC (and worse paying a travel subsidy of $500K for the privilege of that league). This is what you are asking Colorado State or Air Force to do.

Colorado State you might think would be OK to add for Olympics. But the same travel issue exists that sends Air Force to look elsewhere for a home. Temple or UCF going to Tulsa is Central time and an hour less flight. So a Basketball (Volleyball, Baseball, Softball, Soccer) game ending at 9:30pm, allows an 10:45pm flight home and in bed by 1:00 to 1:30 am. Not Ideal, but no missed class, 6 hours at least of sleep. However the same ending time in Fort Collins requires an extra 45 minute drive to the airport, so you are leaving at 11:30pm, and you get home two hours later, one hour flight (600 miles more) and you lose an extra hour from Central time), so your athletes get home in bed at best 2:45 am and often closer to 4:00 am. At this point you are looking at maybe staying overnight and losing class time, or having your athletes deal with jet lag. This was a big reason Texas rejected the Pac-16, the impact on their student athletes.

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Another point. Everyone and their pet hamster believes OU will leave the B12 when the GOR is up in 2025 (the revenue gap to the B1G will be at least $250M a decade, and the SEC probably not far off that -- you can do a lot with a quarter billion), and the replacement(s) will likely come from the American. The MWC schools are aware of that, and realize waiting a few years to see how things shake out is prudent. I can't see any of them running like chickens with their heads cut off to the American. the tales of the Boise State and SDSU experience are still fresh.

The schools that would all jump are in CUSA and UMass. This is probably where, before 2025, one has to look for a replacement. And it's an ugly list. Only 4 have budgets within range of the American schools:

ODU, FIU, UMass, Rice

* UCF and USF already members, FIU is nothing in athletics (where is that money going?)
* Houston already a member, way better performance the Rice
* UMass is a worse version of UConn football. But they do bring basketball and would jump from the A10
* ODU has been pretty decent in Basketball, but still a start up in football.

None really looks worth an invite. Some much lower resources schools in G5 would all love to join, but they are so far below the American resource level they are non starters (e.g., NIU, USM). I don't see ESPN support for adding any of these. Based on that I think the American will stand on 11 for a few years. It's in the best interest of all parties, especially ESPN, to have the American stand pat.

I don't understand why people are overlooking North Texas. The AAC is moving their HQ to nearby Dallas.

you know who could help them make this decision

(06-22-2019 11:27 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Air Force is not coming without Colorado State. BYU is not coming as long as Utah is in a true power conference. Boise State or San Diego State may come, but they have resisted overtures since the almost-marriage in 2012. If there was ever going to be a MWC-raid, it would have happened in advance of the AAC's TV deal with ESPN (not as a response to UConn leaving).

MWC is incognito on its TV deal while the AAC just signed a big one.

That might be enough to entice Air Force if they get a guarantee of west division placement. Denver as an airline hub could be feasible to go east in a way it isn't for say Boise.

West (AFA, Tulsa, SMU, Houston, Tulane, Memphis)
East (Temple, Navy, Cincinnati, ECU, USF, UCF)

(06-23-2019 01:03 AM)seaking4steel Wrote:  I don't understand why people are overlooking North Texas. The AAC is moving their HQ to nearby Dallas.

Too close to SMU. Aresco has said before he's looking to add new states.

(06-23-2019 12:45 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(06-22-2019 11:27 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Air Force is not coming without Colorado State. BYU is not coming as long as Utah is in a true power conference. Boise State or San Diego State may come, but they have resisted overtures since the almost-marriage in 2012. If there was ever going to be a MWC-raid, it would have happened in advance of the AAC's TV deal with ESPN (not as a response to UConn leaving).

I would think the realistic targets would be as follows:
1. Army (FB-only)/VCU (Olympic) - solid FB/BB combo
2. Marshall
3. Old Dominion
4. UAB
5. Southern Mississippi

If Army/VCU say no, or do not work, I wouldn't be surprised to see the AAC stay at 11, and spread UConn's share to the membership.

I think you’ll see 4 options as finalists:
1. Army/VCU
2. ODU
3. UAB
4. Nothing

Marshall/USM unfortunately don’t have the market/recruiting territory that every other AAC add but ECU has had.

UAB & ODU are building their stadiums at the perfect time.

Agree that Marshall has zero chance. So Miss has some chance because of their rivalries with Memphis and Tulane.

VCU I said this many times before has no reason to move to the AAC when they have a cross town rivalry with Richmond and have GMU/GW up the road 90 minutes away. That's their home region. What is more likely is if ODU could also sneak into the A10 to regionalize things even further.

Wichita was different because Tulsa and Memphis are regional rivals and the travel was already long in the MVC.

Out of what is discussed I like the move for adding Air Force as a way out of dumpster fire that is MWC 2.0. Rice also is going to get a serious look by the AAC.

this probably plays into the conference HQ relocation as well

UTSA seems like the best option. UNT is covered by SMU and Rice by Houston. Texas St. replaces UTSA. and take your pick of NMSU, EKU replacing Texas St.