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The escalating situation with Iran
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Fort Bend Owl Online
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The escalating situation with Iran
Things are going to be getting very dicey with Iran. There have been a number of high profile attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East. The latest were two tankers were disabled overnight - I think one was Norwegian and one was from the Phillipines (one has already sunk) in the Gulf of Oman.

No word yet on who is responsible but they were likely carried out by underwater drone attacks carrying missiles or torpedoes which is something Iran has done in the recent past. The weird thing is Iran helped rescue the stranded sailors and the environmental damage that this latest attack has caused is going to cause pretty significant issues to Iran's southern coast. But I guess that doesn't mean they aren't responsible.

One thing is pretty obvious, oil prices are going to rise significantly just in time for summer trips.
06-13-2019 05:25 AM
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ericsrevenge76 Online
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RE: The escalating situation with Iran
(06-13-2019 05:25 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  One thing is pretty obvious, oil prices are going to rise significantly just in time for summer trips.



There may be a brief spike by analysts have been forecasting oil prices to drop in the coming weeks.
(This post was last modified: 06-13-2019 05:53 AM by ericsrevenge76.)
06-13-2019 05:52 AM
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JMUDunk Offline
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The escalating situation with Iran
Not over a tanker or two. We don’t even really need ME oil any longer.

Maybe prices go up for turkey or Syria’s summer trips.

And Iran is playing with fire. They pull this schit with other ships under other flags and they will find themselves completely isolated.

They think we need them? For what?

Freaking Israel would kick that azz.
06-13-2019 05:54 AM
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ericsrevenge76 Online
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RE: The escalating situation with Iran
(06-13-2019 05:54 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  Not over a tanker or two. We don’t even really need ME oil any longer.

Maybe prices go up for turkey or Syria’s summer trips.

And Iran is playing with fire. They pull this schit with other ships under other flags and they will find themselves completely isolated.

They think we need them? For what?

Freaking Israel would kick that azz.


They are going to wind up with Israel and Saudi Arabia allying against them.
06-13-2019 05:56 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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RE: The escalating situation with Iran
Here is the thing. These attacks don't really affect us. Thanks to shale, North America is pretty much energy independent.

Who they hurt are China, India, and Japan, whose economies don't function without Middle East oil. Their problem is that they can't secure their supply chains. Actually, India maybe sorta can. But China can't. So we do it for them.
06-13-2019 07:04 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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RE: The escalating situation with Iran
(06-13-2019 05:56 AM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  
(06-13-2019 05:54 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  Not over a tanker or two. We don’t even really need ME oil any longer.
Maybe prices go up for turkey or Syria’s summer trips.
And Iran is playing with fire. They pull this schit with other ships under other flags and they will find themselves completely isolated.
They think we need them? For what?
Freaking Israel would kick that azz.
They are going to wind up with Israel and Saudi Arabia allying against them.

I'm fairly sure that alliance already exists, very secretly but in fact.
06-13-2019 07:05 AM
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200yrs2late Offline
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RE: The escalating situation with Iran
I want to see what happens when SA and Israel decimate all of the military installations in western Iran. It's China and Russia's potential response that intrigues me. Do they rush the Iran's aid, or join the western world in pressuring Iran into regime change from within? We've already seen massive amounts of support for change from the Iranian people. If I'm strategizing right now, I might not put an end to Iran's attacks on the tankers just yet. I'd let this play out a bit longer to see how Russia and China respond.
06-13-2019 07:18 AM
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Fort Bend Owl Online
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RE: The escalating situation with Iran
I dunno, you guys seem convinced oil prices here are tied into completely on supply and demand. I guess I'm cynical but I think conflicts elsewhere give the U.S. oil companies an excuse to jack up the prices here. Especially just before summer (or in a cold winter) when our countries' demand increases. As a Houstonian, I shouldn't complain I guess. And I really am not a huge oil consumer in terms of my commute so it's not a big deal to me either way.
06-13-2019 07:18 AM
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ericsrevenge76 Online
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RE: The escalating situation with Iran
(06-13-2019 07:05 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(06-13-2019 05:56 AM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  
(06-13-2019 05:54 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  Not over a tanker or two. We don’t even really need ME oil any longer.
Maybe prices go up for turkey or Syria’s summer trips.
And Iran is playing with fire. They pull this schit with other ships under other flags and they will find themselves completely isolated.
They think we need them? For what?
Freaking Israel would kick that azz.
They are going to wind up with Israel and Saudi Arabia allying against them.

I'm fairly sure that alliance already exists, very secretly but in fact.



Agreed. I'm expecting more evidence of that in the coming few years via escalating responses to Iran.
06-13-2019 07:23 AM
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ericsrevenge76 Online
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RE: The escalating situation with Iran
(06-13-2019 07:18 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I dunno, you guys seem convinced oil prices here are tied into completely on supply and demand. I guess I'm cynical but I think conflicts elsewhere give the U.S. oil companies an excuse to jack up the prices here. Especially just before summer (or in a cold winter) when our countries' demand increases. As a Houstonian, I shouldn't complain I guess. And I really am not a huge oil consumer in terms of my commute so it's not a big deal to me either way.


I think we are morso reacting to recent forecasts of a drop in prices.
06-13-2019 07:25 AM
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RE: The escalating situation with Iran
(06-13-2019 07:25 AM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  
(06-13-2019 07:18 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I dunno, you guys seem convinced oil prices here are tied into completely on supply and demand. I guess I'm cynical but I think conflicts elsewhere give the U.S. oil companies an excuse to jack up the prices here. Especially just before summer (or in a cold winter) when our countries' demand increases. As a Houstonian, I shouldn't complain I guess. And I really am not a huge oil consumer in terms of my commute so it's not a big deal to me either way.


I think we are morso reacting to recent forecasts of a drop in prices.

How dare you use rational thought and analysis!?
06-13-2019 07:45 AM
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Post: #12
RE: The escalating situation with Iran
"The market" is nothing but knee-jerk reactionism and algorithms insofar as day to day movement. This shouldn't have any long-term effect. Then again, it took about 10 years for "the market" to come back to normal after the Hurricane Katrina oil shock.
06-13-2019 07:50 AM
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king king Offline
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Post: #13
RE: The escalating situation with Iran
(06-13-2019 07:04 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Here is the thing. These attacks don't really affect us. Thanks to shale, North America is pretty much energy independent.

Who they hurt are China, India, and Japan, whose economies don't function without Middle East oil. Their problem is that they can't secure their supply chains. Actually, India maybe sorta can. But China can't. So we do it for them.

So maybe we were the attackers here?

Is a win win either way.
06-13-2019 08:15 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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RE: The escalating situation with Iran
(06-13-2019 07:18 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  I want to see what happens when SA and Israel decimate all of the military installations in western Iran. It's China and Russia's potential response that intrigues me. Do they rush the Iran's aid, or join the western world in pressuring Iran into regime change from within? We've already seen massive amounts of support for change from the Iranian people. If I'm strategizing right now, I might not put an end to Iran's attacks on the tankers just yet. I'd let this play out a bit longer to see how Russia and China respond.

Interstingly, Russia would seemingly be a huge winner if oil shipping from the Middle East were to be destabilized.
(This post was last modified: 06-13-2019 08:15 AM by Attackcoog.)
06-13-2019 08:15 AM
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RE: The escalating situation with Iran
The scary answer is that Iran has lost control of elements of their Republican guard.
06-13-2019 08:26 AM
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RE: The escalating situation with Iran
(06-13-2019 08:15 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(06-13-2019 07:18 AM)200yrs2late Wrote:  I want to see what happens when SA and Israel decimate all of the military installations in western Iran. It's China and Russia's potential response that intrigues me. Do they rush the Iran's aid, or join the western world in pressuring Iran into regime change from within? We've already seen massive amounts of support for change from the Iranian people. If I'm strategizing right now, I might not put an end to Iran's attacks on the tankers just yet. I'd let this play out a bit longer to see how Russia and China respond.

Interstingly, Russia would seemingly be a huge winner if oil shipping from the Middle East were to be destabilized.

That's what makes their response all the more interesting. Do they play it smart and just make a move to increase exports, or do they jump in with China and get involved militarily?
06-13-2019 08:38 AM
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RE: The escalating situation with Iran
There are some analysts out there who expect the result of a major disruption in the Gulf would be an invasion of Siberia by China in order to gain control of the oil. Russia would probably just sell it to China and jack up the price to prevent that. China is currently getting about 1/6 of its oil imports from Russia, and a new pipeline is opening that would roughly double that. China currently gets about 60% of its 9 million barrels a day imports from the Middle East, per Peter Zeehan.
06-13-2019 10:01 AM
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UofMstateU Offline
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RE: The escalating situation with Iran
Just another Obama mess that he left for Trump to clean up.
06-13-2019 10:31 AM
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RE: The escalating situation with Iran
(06-13-2019 10:01 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  There are some analysts out there who expect the result of a major disruption in the Gulf would be an invasion of Siberia by China in order to gain control of the oil. Russia would probably just sell it to China and jack up the price to prevent that. China is currently getting about 1/6 of its oil imports from Russia, and a new pipeline is opening that would roughly double that. China currently gets about 60% of its 9 million barrels a day imports from the Middle East, per Peter Zeehan.

I wouldn't be surprised to see China eventually tried to take eastern Siberia. There are only about 15 million Russians and many of them are ethnic orientals. It wouldn't take China a month to move 15 million peasants to Siberia. And what is called the Far Eastern district, which includes Sakhalin and Vladivostok, only has 6.4 million Russians, down from 8.0 million in 1990.
06-13-2019 11:20 AM
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bobdizole Offline
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RE: The escalating situation with Iran
(06-13-2019 10:01 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  There are some analysts out there who expect the result of a major disruption in the Gulf would be an invasion of Siberia by China in order to gain control of the oil. Russia would probably just sell it to China and jack up the price to prevent that. China is currently getting about 1/6 of its oil imports from Russia, and a new pipeline is opening that would roughly double that. China currently gets about 60% of its 9 million barrels a day imports from the Middle East, per Peter Zeehan.

That is a key part of Tom Clancy's The Bear and the Dragon. Except it was a trade war between the US and China wiped out their foreign cash reserves meaning they could no longer buy oil on the international market that lead them to push north into the Siberian oil fields.
06-14-2019 09:21 AM
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