Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
Author Message
Bookmark and Share
Keswick_Crusaders_Forever51 Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 439
Joined: Jun 2019
Reputation: 13
I Root For: Liberty, UF
Location: Virginia
Post: #1
Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
So keeping in mind that realignment is just a few years down the road, I've been talking with cruzan_flame13 about what future realignment could potentially look like, & how Liberty might fit in if we see continued success with our Men's Basketball & major success with the football team under Freeze.

Though prideful, I could see Texas & Oklahoma making a run for the border come the next realignment period, leading to a collapse of the Big XII as we know it. Should that be the case, I think we see a movement to those Super-Conferences. This would be an ideal divide in my mind, though the conferences would likely only desire to expand to 16 teams rather than 18. However, one can dream, right?

Additionally, I placed the military schools in 3 of the 4 major conferences bc I think their history & the possible money incentive of having military schools might motivate them to go after those schools in an 18-school conference world.

ACC:

Atlantic
Boston College
Cincinnati
Clemson
FSU
Louisville
NC State
Notre Dame
Syracuse
Wake Forest

Coastal
UCF
UConn
Duke
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)
UNC
Pitt
UVA
VTech

Big Ten:

East
Indiana
Maryland
Michigan
MSU
Navy
OSU
Penn State
Purdue
Rutgers

West
Illinois
Iowa
ISU
Kansas
KSU
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
Wisconsin

Pacific West:

Pacific
ASU
Cal
Oregon
Oregon St
Stanford
USC
Washington
WSU

West
Air Force
Arizona
BYU
Colorado
CSU
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Utah
Utah State

SEC:

East
Army
Auburn
UF
UGA
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
WVU

West
Bama
Arkansas
LSU
Mizzou
Ole Miss
Mississippi St
Texas
TAMU
Oklahoma

Should that realignment happen, we could see Baylor & TCU making a push to remain part of the conversation, as well as many of the other teams who feel left out of the expansive realignment above, thus aiming for a 5th Super-Conference, which we think might include a booming Liberty:

American Conference

East
ECU
Houston
Liberty
Memphis
SMU
USF
Temple
Tulane
Tulsa

West
Baylor
Boise State
Fresno State
Nevada
UNLV
New Mexico
San Diego St
TCU
Wyoming

Regardless of whether that is viewed as a 5th Super or not, the 4 Supers would almost force an 8-team playoff, all champs playing for the playoff, plus at-large bids.

Let me know what you think, or if you completely disagree, share your own ideas!
06-10-2019 09:20 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


Ewglenn Online
All American
*

Posts: 2,815
Joined: Oct 2015
Reputation: 41
I Root For: MTSU & LU
Location:
Post: #2
RE: Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
(06-10-2019 09:20 AM)Keswick_Crusaders_Forever51 Wrote:  So keeping in mind that realignment is just a few years down the road, I've been talking with cruzan_flame13 about what future realignment could potentially look like, & how Liberty might fit in if we see continued success with our Men's Basketball & major success with the football team under Freeze.

Though prideful, I could see Texas & Oklahoma making a run for the border come the next realignment period, leading to a collapse of the Big XII as we know it. Should that be the case, I think we see a movement to those Super-Conferences. This would be an ideal divide in my mind, though the conferences would likely only desire to expand to 16 teams rather than 18. However, one can dream, right?

Additionally, I placed the military schools in 3 of the 4 major conferences bc I think their history & the possible money incentive of having military schools might motivate them to go after those schools in an 18-school conference world.

ACC:

Atlantic
Boston College
Cincinnati
Clemson
FSU
Louisville
NC State
Notre Dame
Syracuse
Wake Forest

Coastal
UCF
UConn
Duke
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)
UNC
Pitt
UVA
VTech

Big Ten:

East
Indiana
Maryland
Michigan
MSU
Navy
OSU
Penn State
Purdue
Rutgers

West
Illinois
Iowa
ISU
Kansas
KSU
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
Wisconsin

Pacific West:

Pacific
ASU
Cal
Oregon
Oregon St
Stanford
USC
Washington
WSU

West
Air Force
Arizona
BYU
Colorado
CSU
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Utah
Utah State

SEC:

East
Army
Auburn
UF
UGA
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
WVU

West
Bama
Arkansas
LSU
Mizzou
Ole Miss
Mississippi St
Texas
TAMU
Oklahoma

Should that realignment happen, we could see Baylor & TCU making a push to remain part of the conversation, as well as many of the other teams who feel left out of the expansive realignment above, thus aiming for a 5th Super-Conference, which we think might include a booming Liberty:

American Conference

East
ECU
Houston
Liberty
Memphis
SMU
USF
Temple
Tulane
Tulsa

West
Baylor
Boise State
Fresno State
Nevada
UNLV
New Mexico
San Diego St
TCU
Wyoming

Regardless of whether that is viewed as a 5th Super or not, the 4 Supers would almost force an 8-team playoff, all champs playing for the playoff, plus at-large bids.

Let me know what you think, or if you completely disagree, share your own ideas!

No way they would take the service academies over TCU and Baylor.
06-10-2019 06:31 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
WesternSkillet Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,521
Joined: Sep 2014
Reputation: 78
I Root For: LU
Location: Kalamazoo
Post: #3
RE: Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
(06-10-2019 09:20 AM)Keswick_Crusaders_Forever51 Wrote:  So keeping in mind that realignment is just a few years down the road, I've been talking with cruzan_flame13 about what future realignment could potentially look like, & how Liberty might fit in if we see continued success with our Men's Basketball & major success with the football team under Freeze.

Though prideful, I could see Texas & Oklahoma making a run for the border come the next realignment period, leading to a collapse of the Big XII as we know it. Should that be the case, I think we see a movement to those Super-Conferences. This would be an ideal divide in my mind, though the conferences would likely only desire to expand to 16 teams rather than 18. However, one can dream, right?

Additionally, I placed the military schools in 3 of the 4 major conferences bc I think their history & the possible money incentive of having military schools might motivate them to go after those schools in an 18-school conference world.

ACC:

Atlantic
Boston College
Cincinnati
Clemson
FSU
Louisville
NC State
Notre Dame
Syracuse
Wake Forest

Coastal
UCF
UConn
Duke
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)
UNC
Pitt
UVA
VTech

Big Ten:

East
Indiana
Maryland
Michigan
MSU
Navy
OSU
Penn State
Purdue
Rutgers

West
Illinois
Iowa
ISU
Kansas
KSU
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
Wisconsin

Pacific West:

Pacific
ASU
Cal
Oregon
Oregon St
Stanford
USC
Washington
WSU

West
Air Force
Arizona
BYU
Colorado
CSU
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Utah
Utah State

SEC:

East
Army
Auburn
UF
UGA
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
WVU

West
Bama
Arkansas
LSU
Mizzou
Ole Miss
Mississippi St
Texas
TAMU
Oklahoma

Should that realignment happen, we could see Baylor & TCU making a push to remain part of the conversation, as well as many of the other teams who feel left out of the expansive realignment above, thus aiming for a 5th Super-Conference, which we think might include a booming Liberty:

American Conference

East
ECU
Houston
Liberty
Memphis
SMU
USF
Temple
Tulane
Tulsa

West
Baylor
Boise State
Fresno State
Nevada
UNLV
New Mexico
San Diego St
TCU
Wyoming

Regardless of whether that is viewed as a 5th Super or not, the 4 Supers would almost force an 8-team playoff, all champs playing for the playoff, plus at-large bids.

Let me know what you think, or if you completely disagree, share your own ideas!

Welcome to the LU boards KCF.
I think LU should consider both a new FB conference as well as independent football. There is certainly room to grow in both directions. There are so many questions for the next realignment. There could be a P4 with the Big 12 falling apart. The Big 12 could raid the AAC to stay alive. The Big 12 could stay a power conference and simply add 2 to 4 schools likely from the AAC. No matter what, LU must keep aware of the situation and prepare the athletic department for success.
06-11-2019 09:38 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
army56mike Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 10,377
Joined: Mar 2004
Reputation: 225
I Root For: Liberty & UofL
Location: Ft. Leonard Wood, MO
Post: #4
RE: Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
AAC, higher, or bust for Liberty. Otherwise, we’ll stay independent.
06-11-2019 09:50 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Keswick_Crusaders_Forever51 Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 439
Joined: Jun 2019
Reputation: 13
I Root For: Liberty, UF
Location: Virginia
Post: #5
RE: Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
(06-10-2019 06:31 PM)Ewglenn Wrote:  
(06-10-2019 09:20 AM)Keswick_Crusaders_Forever51 Wrote:  So keeping in mind that realignment is just a few years down the road, I've been talking with cruzan_flame13 about what future realignment could potentially look like, & how Liberty might fit in if we see continued success with our Men's Basketball & major success with the football team under Freeze.

Though prideful, I could see Texas & Oklahoma making a run for the border come the next realignment period, leading to a collapse of the Big XII as we know it. Should that be the case, I think we see a movement to those Super-Conferences. This would be an ideal divide in my mind, though the conferences would likely only desire to expand to 16 teams rather than 18. However, one can dream, right?

Additionally, I placed the military schools in 3 of the 4 major conferences bc I think their history & the possible money incentive of having military schools might motivate them to go after those schools in an 18-school conference world.

ACC:

Atlantic
Boston College
Cincinnati
Clemson
FSU
Louisville
NC State
Notre Dame
Syracuse
Wake Forest

Coastal
UCF
UConn
Duke
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)
UNC
Pitt
UVA
VTech

Big Ten:

East
Indiana
Maryland
Michigan
MSU
Navy
OSU
Penn State
Purdue
Rutgers

West
Illinois
Iowa
ISU
Kansas
KSU
Minnesota
Nebraska
Northwestern
Wisconsin

Pacific West:

Pacific
ASU
Cal
Oregon
Oregon St
Stanford
USC
Washington
WSU

West
Air Force
Arizona
BYU
Colorado
CSU
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Utah
Utah State

SEC:

East
Army
Auburn
UF
UGA
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
WVU

West
Bama
Arkansas
LSU
Mizzou
Ole Miss
Mississippi St
Texas
TAMU
Oklahoma

Should that realignment happen, we could see Baylor & TCU making a push to remain part of the conversation, as well as many of the other teams who feel left out of the expansive realignment above, thus aiming for a 5th Super-Conference, which we think might include a booming Liberty:

American Conference

East
ECU
Houston
Liberty
Memphis
SMU
USF
Temple
Tulane
Tulsa

West
Baylor
Boise State
Fresno State
Nevada
UNLV
New Mexico
San Diego St
TCU
Wyoming

Regardless of whether that is viewed as a 5th Super or not, the 4 Supers would almost force an 8-team playoff, all champs playing for the playoff, plus at-large bids.

Let me know what you think, or if you completely disagree, share your own ideas!

No way they would take the service academies over TCU and Baylor.

Realistically, you're probably right regarding TCU & those service academies. But if some of these other Conference boards are to be believed, most conferences are still nervous to get anywhere near Baylor with a 10-foot pole.

The only reason we even broached the service academies is because there could potentially be some financial incentive provided to some of these conferences to consider the academies, plus a conference like the SEC is filled with some very patriotic fans. Again, could very well be wrong on that, & instead schools from the AAC may be more attractive, such as Houston.
06-11-2019 10:14 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
WesternSkillet Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,521
Joined: Sep 2014
Reputation: 78
I Root For: LU
Location: Kalamazoo
Post: #6
RE: Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
(06-11-2019 09:50 AM)army56mike Wrote:  AAC, higher, or bust for Liberty. Otherwise, we’ll stay independent.

This is the most succinct way of explaining LU's realignment situation.
If independent, go for A10 or BE for all other sports.
06-11-2019 10:34 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


Keswick_Crusaders_Forever51 Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 439
Joined: Jun 2019
Reputation: 13
I Root For: Liberty, UF
Location: Virginia
Post: #7
RE: Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
(06-11-2019 10:34 AM)WesternSkillet Wrote:  
(06-11-2019 09:50 AM)army56mike Wrote:  AAC, higher, or bust for Liberty. Otherwise, we’ll stay independent.

This is the most succinct way of explaining LU's realignment situation.
If independent, go for A10 or BE for all other sports.

I'd agree. The question is: what of the AAC will still remain when the dust settles after the P5 go nuts?
06-11-2019 10:43 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
cruzan_flame13 Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 366
Joined: May 2018
Reputation: 12
I Root For: LIBERTY
Location: Hill City!!!
Post: #8
RE: Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
(06-11-2019 10:34 AM)WesternSkillet Wrote:  
(06-11-2019 09:50 AM)army56mike Wrote:  AAC, higher, or bust for Liberty. Otherwise, we’ll stay independent.

This is the most succinct way of explaining LU's realignment situation.
If independent, go for A10 or BE for all other sports.

A10 is really stacked and our basketball squad will have to continue success such as hitting the Sweet 16 a few times in order to even get the Big East to take notice. I believe the AAC will have some room when the realignment is in action. Although money talks in this business; connections still remain at top.
06-11-2019 12:45 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
WesternSkillet Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,521
Joined: Sep 2014
Reputation: 78
I Root For: LU
Location: Kalamazoo
Post: #9
RE: Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
(06-11-2019 10:43 AM)Keswick_Crusaders_Forever51 Wrote:  
(06-11-2019 10:34 AM)WesternSkillet Wrote:  
(06-11-2019 09:50 AM)army56mike Wrote:  AAC, higher, or bust for Liberty. Otherwise, we’ll stay independent.

This is the most succinct way of explaining LU's realignment situation.
If independent, go for A10 or BE for all other sports.

I'd agree. The question is: what of the AAC will still remain when the dust settles after the P5 go nuts?

It is a valid question. If only a few go (1-3), the AAC is still attractive. The AAC could go after a few strong programs in the Sun Belt, CUSA, and/or MAC to help maintain top G5 status.
06-11-2019 01:05 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Keswick_Crusaders_Forever51 Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 439
Joined: Jun 2019
Reputation: 13
I Root For: Liberty, UF
Location: Virginia
Post: #10
RE: Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
(06-11-2019 01:05 PM)WesternSkillet Wrote:  
(06-11-2019 10:43 AM)Keswick_Crusaders_Forever51 Wrote:  
(06-11-2019 10:34 AM)WesternSkillet Wrote:  
(06-11-2019 09:50 AM)army56mike Wrote:  AAC, higher, or bust for Liberty. Otherwise, we’ll stay independent.

This is the most succinct way of explaining LU's realignment situation.
If independent, go for A10 or BE for all other sports.

I'd agree. The question is: what of the AAC will still remain when the dust settles after the P5 go nuts?

It is a valid question. If only a few go (1-3), the AAC is still attractive. The AAC could go after a few strong programs in the Sun Belt, CUSA, and/or MAC to help maintain top G5 status.

This I would be a fan of.
06-11-2019 01:07 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
msm96wolf Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,116
Joined: Apr 2006
Reputation: 159
I Root For:
Location:
Post: #11
RE: Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
FSU and Miami will never let UCF in the ACC. If ND joined, Navy could join football only. Keep that rivalry going. But I don't see ND changing their position in my life time. If not Navy, form that list, TCU would be asked to the ACC in a heartbeat.
(This post was last modified: 06-11-2019 07:28 PM by msm96wolf.)
06-11-2019 07:27 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


GE and MTS Online
Moderator
*

Posts: 3,307
Joined: Apr 2012
Reputation: 64
I Root For: Liberty/Penn St
Location: FBS!!!
Post: #12
RE: Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
(06-10-2019 09:20 AM)Keswick_Crusaders_Forever51 Wrote:  Let me know what you think, or if you completely disagree, share your own ideas!

TL;DR at the bottom. Sorry in advance.

I'm in the camp of completely disagreeing. Conferences are only going to add schools if they increase the money paid to the members. Here are some links that better show this:


The Wall Street Journal P5 Football School Valuations: https://csnbbs.com/thread-869587.html

Football value is 75-80% of a media deal's value. This was basically verified by Notre Dame getting ACC media value of about 20-25% of a full ACC member.

2017-2018 P5 Total Sports Revenue: https://csnbbs.com/thread-871659.html

Part of the revenue is a function of being in a strong conference but the conference being strong is because it has strong members so it generally balances out in the end.

2018 Football Attendance: https://csnbbs.com/thread-873579.html

Again, the biggest brands have the largest attendances.

2018 Football Viewers Per School: https://csnbbs.com/thread-875944.html

Again, networks pay money for more viewers. Viewers are either alumni, generational (my grandpa grew up watching State University because his grandpa did and everyone in my family does), "Walmart fans", or the team is ranked.

========================================

Now as we look over these numbers, it is not good enough for a school reach the minimum of a prospective conference. For example, if Liberty wants to join the Big 12, it isn't enough to have better attendance than Kansas at 16,049 or even the next highest Baylor at 40,561. The Big 12 averaged 55,981 in 2018 so Liberty should be greater than that as a starting point.

With all of this in mind, the original post has so many schools that detract from the bottom line of most conferences so they wouldn't be added unless something drastic improves for the schools themselves or the conference drastically worsens. Take the Big Ten for example: Navy, Iowa State, Kansas, and Kansas State are added but they each are below (usually vastly below) each of the various metrics I linked to with Kansas's 2018 sports revenue as the lone exception. Navy is worthless in all sports besides football, and even then isn't too valuable and overlaps the University of Maryland; granted, they have a national following but the real jewel being the Army-Navy game wouldn't even be owned by the conference they are in so they can't even count that in their favor. Iowa-Iowa State and Kansas-Kansas State would become conference rivalry games for the Big Ten but they aren't must watch now so it doesn't move the needle. The Big Ten already has significant viewership in the Kansas, Maryland, and especially Iowa states/regions and adding these schools doesn't really capture much of a market that isn't already captured, nor is it worth it for defensive reasons. Kansas's basketball is questionable whether it can save the school and allow them to call their shot so they aren't left behind in a dismantled Big 12. Again, these conferences won't add just for the sake of adding.

Look at when the grant of rights for each conference ends and that is when movement may potentially happen. I believe the Big 12, Big 10, and PAC 12 all expire roughly 2023-2025 so expect movement to happen then if any happens at all. As you can see, the Big 10 and the SEC are the top dogs so they will be the major players. The PAC 12 is sheltered by being so far away that they are generally safe though they are upset with their lack of revenue (or mostly their high expenses). The Big 12 is most volatile and the two big prizes are Texas and Oklahoma. It will come down to bidding by ESPN, Fox, and/or others (Amazon? Netflix? Facebook?) and if they will finance a move, the conference and schools will make it work.

If I had to guess on some moves, Texas will move to the SEC and Oklahoma will move to the Big Ten. Their partners would be Texas Tech to the SEC to please Texas and Colorado (or Kansas if Colorado wants to keep their Pacific connections). Other than Texas and Oklahoma, there just isn't anyone else available that moves the needle for the Big Ten or SEC, even if the ACC were available. The trends are going away from markets and towards brands.

How does this effect Liberty? Well, we are the newest FBS member meaning we have the lowest valued brand. We don't have 100 years of history playing football at the highest level, must less connections to the other schools who have. Conference realignment doesn't care about performance on the field, court, or whatever. It cares about money and Liberty needs to show that they will improve another conference. We need to fill Williams Stadium and make them expand. Whoever can't get a ticket needs to sign up for ESPN+ and watch each of our games which ESPN will notice. We need to travel to away games and boost their attendance. We need to sellout our bowl games. We have so much room to make up and so little time. It isn't good enough to be the best G5 available; we need to be good enough that makes a conference invite us.

I firmly believe our best bet, as it currently stands, is to shoot for the Big 12. They have the most room for expansion and a perfect opportunity to be a travel partner for West Virginia is there. Unfortunately, Cincinnati would be better than us in almost every facet and they could have been added at any time for so long now and haven't been good enough. We make geographic sense for the Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and ACC. The ACC has the lowest averages and has a solid number of private schools and we have plenty of future games against them but the market and fan base we provide is completely covered by both UVA and Virginia Tech so we'd need at least one, if not both to leave.

TL;DR version: Great discussion! I very much disagree with the OP. Conferences add schools to make more money. Liberty needs to vastly improve everything if they want to be a P5.
06-12-2019 09:01 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Keswick_Crusaders_Forever51 Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 439
Joined: Jun 2019
Reputation: 13
I Root For: Liberty, UF
Location: Virginia
Post: #13
RE: Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
(06-12-2019 09:01 PM)GE and MTS Wrote:  
(06-10-2019 09:20 AM)Keswick_Crusaders_Forever51 Wrote:  Let me know what you think, or if you completely disagree, share your own ideas!

TL;DR at the bottom. Sorry in advance.

I'm in the camp of completely disagreeing. Conferences are only going to add schools if they increase the money paid to the members. Here are some links that better show this:


The Wall Street Journal P5 Football School Valuations: https://csnbbs.com/thread-869587.html

Football value is 75-80% of a media deal's value. This was basically verified by Notre Dame getting ACC media value of about 20-25% of a full ACC member.

2017-2018 P5 Total Sports Revenue: https://csnbbs.com/thread-871659.html

Part of the revenue is a function of being in a strong conference but the conference being strong is because it has strong members so it generally balances out in the end.

2018 Football Attendance: https://csnbbs.com/thread-873579.html

Again, the biggest brands have the largest attendances.

2018 Football Viewers Per School: https://csnbbs.com/thread-875944.html

Again, networks pay money for more viewers. Viewers are either alumni, generational (my grandpa grew up watching State University because his grandpa did and everyone in my family does), "Walmart fans", or the team is ranked.

========================================

Now as we look over these numbers, it is not good enough for a school reach the minimum of a prospective conference. For example, if Liberty wants to join the Big 12, it isn't enough to have better attendance than Kansas at 16,049 or even the next highest Baylor at 40,561. The Big 12 averaged 55,981 in 2018 so Liberty should be greater than that as a starting point.

With all of this in mind, the original post has so many schools that detract from the bottom line of most conferences so they wouldn't be added unless something drastic improves for the schools themselves or the conference drastically worsens. Take the Big Ten for example: Navy, Iowa State, Kansas, and Kansas State are added but they each are below (usually vastly below) each of the various metrics I linked to with Kansas's 2018 sports revenue as the lone exception. Navy is worthless in all sports besides football, and even then isn't too valuable and overlaps the University of Maryland; granted, they have a national following but the real jewel being the Army-Navy game wouldn't even be owned by the conference they are in so they can't even count that in their favor. Iowa-Iowa State and Kansas-Kansas State would become conference rivalry games for the Big Ten but they aren't must watch now so it doesn't move the needle. The Big Ten already has significant viewership in the Kansas, Maryland, and especially Iowa states/regions and adding these schools doesn't really capture much of a market that isn't already captured, nor is it worth it for defensive reasons. Kansas's basketball is questionable whether it can save the school and allow them to call their shot so they aren't left behind in a dismantled Big 12. Again, these conferences won't add just for the sake of adding.

Look at when the grant of rights for each conference ends and that is when movement may potentially happen. I believe the Big 12, Big 10, and PAC 12 all expire roughly 2023-2025 so expect movement to happen then if any happens at all. As you can see, the Big 10 and the SEC are the top dogs so they will be the major players. The PAC 12 is sheltered by being so far away that they are generally safe though they are upset with their lack of revenue (or mostly their high expenses). The Big 12 is most volatile and the two big prizes are Texas and Oklahoma. It will come down to bidding by ESPN, Fox, and/or others (Amazon? Netflix? Facebook?) and if they will finance a move, the conference and schools will make it work.

If I had to guess on some moves, Texas will move to the SEC and Oklahoma will move to the Big Ten. Their partners would be Texas Tech to the SEC to please Texas and Colorado (or Kansas if Colorado wants to keep their Pacific connections). Other than Texas and Oklahoma, there just isn't anyone else available that moves the needle for the Big Ten or SEC, even if the ACC were available. The trends are going away from markets and towards brands.

How does this effect Liberty? Well, we are the newest FBS member meaning we have the lowest valued brand. We don't have 100 years of history playing football at the highest level, must less connections to the other schools who have. Conference realignment doesn't care about performance on the field, court, or whatever. It cares about money and Liberty needs to show that they will improve another conference. We need to fill Williams Stadium and make them expand. Whoever can't get a ticket needs to sign up for ESPN+ and watch each of our games which ESPN will notice. We need to travel to away games and boost their attendance. We need to sellout our bowl games. We have so much room to make up and so little time. It isn't good enough to be the best G5 available; we need to be good enough that makes a conference invite us.

I firmly believe our best bet, as it currently stands, is to shoot for the Big 12. They have the most room for expansion and a perfect opportunity to be a travel partner for West Virginia is there. Unfortunately, Cincinnati would be better than us in almost every facet and they could have been added at any time for so long now and haven't been good enough. We make geographic sense for the Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and ACC. The ACC has the lowest averages and has a solid number of private schools and we have plenty of future games against them but the market and fan base we provide is completely covered by both UVA and Virginia Tech so we'd need at least one, if not both to leave.

TL;DR version: Great discussion! I very much disagree with the OP. Conferences add schools to make more money. Liberty needs to vastly improve everything if they want to be a P5.

Fair enough.

The conference I put Liberty in was a possible new P5 conference made up of AAC & other stronger G5 schools in the West to replace a crumbled Big 12, so I don't presume that we're strong enough for any current P5 conferences as of now.

Should the Big 12 stay alive, then we should aim for the AAC, as they would be the highest we can go in the near future.
06-13-2019 08:36 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Steve1981 Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,465
Joined: Nov 2010
Reputation: 171
I Root For: UMass
Location: North Quabbin Region
Post: #14
RE: Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
(06-11-2019 01:05 PM)WesternSkillet Wrote:  
(06-11-2019 10:43 AM)Keswick_Crusaders_Forever51 Wrote:  
(06-11-2019 10:34 AM)WesternSkillet Wrote:  
(06-11-2019 09:50 AM)army56mike Wrote:  AAC, higher, or bust for Liberty. Otherwise, we’ll stay independent.

This is the most succinct way of explaining LU's realignment situation.
If independent, go for A10 or BE for all other sports.

I'd agree. The question is: what of the AAC will still remain when the dust settles after the P5 go nuts?

It is a valid question. If only a few go (1-3), the AAC is still attractive. The AAC could go after a few strong programs in the Sun Belt, CUSA, and/or MAC to help maintain top G5 status.
Can see the AAC grabbing Ohio if Cincy goes, but not sure if the two Florida schools get picked, which seems more likely. Think there will be hesitation with the A10 taking Liberty. (All early defection and some later ones as Temple and Charlotte left do to FBS Football. The A10 let the fcs football go to the CAA. [Richmond was the swing vote and had just joined the A10, which could have influenced Richmond's vote.]The A10 has no patience or want for football teams. When Fordham join, they were happy that they left football in the Patriot league.)
06-14-2019 11:02 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
WesternSkillet Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,521
Joined: Sep 2014
Reputation: 78
I Root For: LU
Location: Kalamazoo
Post: #15
RE: Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
Hearing UCONN basketball to the Big East. AAC might be shaking up very soon.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using CSNbbs mobile app
06-22-2019 12:42 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
GE and MTS Online
Moderator
*

Posts: 3,307
Joined: Apr 2012
Reputation: 64
I Root For: Liberty/Penn St
Location: FBS!!!
Post: #16
RE: Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
(06-22-2019 12:42 PM)WesternSkillet Wrote:  Hearing UCONN basketball to the Big East. AAC might be shaking up very soon.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using CSNbbs mobile app

Yeah, it's everywhere right now. Honestly, I was hoping this would happen in two or three years from now for Liberty's sake. Maybe we make a Sweet 16 appearance or two and start looking good to the Big East. Or we win a few bowl games and average around 8 wins a year and catch the eye of the American. We are just not there yet in any sport for the next level unfortunately.

I do hope we make room in our football schedules for UConn if they go independent. Maybe that will help them go to bat for us with the Big East and we make a good impression (as minimal as it may be) with our field hockey team or whatever we have in the Big East (women's lacrosse?).
06-22-2019 01:33 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


army56mike Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 10,377
Joined: Mar 2004
Reputation: 225
I Root For: Liberty & UofL
Location: Ft. Leonard Wood, MO
Post: #17
RE: Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
Wow, what an incredible upset it would be for Liberty to land in the AAC. But, I agree, it’s too soon. I would love for us to make that move, but I think it will be the other Virginia school getting an invitation..... ODU.
06-23-2019 11:35 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
cruzan_flame13 Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 366
Joined: May 2018
Reputation: 12
I Root For: LIBERTY
Location: Hill City!!!
Post: #18
RE: Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
I’m not saying it’s wrong to think that Liberty would not receive an invitation to join the AAC since that is the logical idea at this point. I will say this; this the same idea when people said that it would’ve taken us a decade or so to even be an FBS school as well. I’m not pointing fingers, but as I stated before on some other platforms: Anything can happen. I said that about FBS and a few months later we transitioned. This may not happen the same way as that incident, but the AAC presidents and commissioner would be smart to consider a school that could provide financial support for the future of the conference. Schools are already struggling to fund athletics and academia, and the price of funding will only increase( hence why UCONN decided[ing]to move back to the Big East. Looking at the tv deal that the AAC has made, they are really trying to step up their game. I’m not saying others schools cannot do it like ODU, but endowments/assets and alumni/donors is considered. I know that ODU is in a good market and have alumni all over, we have a good amount all over nationally and internationally that would be more interested if we were in the AAC. How many people are in the flames Club? About 1.2k-1.3k and reached a million in donations. That could easily double or triple quickly and maintain a steady growth being part of the AAC. Finally I’ll add this; wouldn’t be nice to have rivalries with ECU and Temple? Just a thought.
06-23-2019 12:11 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
army56mike Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 10,377
Joined: Mar 2004
Reputation: 225
I Root For: Liberty & UofL
Location: Ft. Leonard Wood, MO
Post: #19
RE: Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
(06-23-2019 12:11 PM)cruzan_flame13 Wrote:  Finally I’ll add this; wouldn’t be nice to have rivalries with ECU and Temple? Just a thought.

..... and Navy.

Another thread on one of these boards said that Liberty had actually been mentioned prominently through another media source as a legitimate candidate. I have seen a poll on one site where Liberty had garnered a fair amount of fans votes as the best option for the AAC as well.

I am not expecting an AAC invite, but it would be amazing. I am very happy with our A-Sun situation and football Independence. I think there are some really great things happening and opportunities in the A-Sun.
06-23-2019 01:19 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Ewglenn Online
All American
*

Posts: 2,815
Joined: Oct 2015
Reputation: 41
I Root For: MTSU & LU
Location:
Post: #20
RE: Realignment/Possible Liberty Future
I think the more likely situation is this:

AAC takes one of Marshall, USM, or ODU and we backfill the CUSA spot.
06-23-2019 02:16 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2021 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2021 MyBB Group.