Going back to the 2009 recruiting class (247sports), there's a lot of interesting things to look at with the teams with top 5 recruiting classes.

The number 1 recruiting class has made the finals 3 times and won twice. Duke once and Kentucky once. Kentucky had the # 1 class all 4 previous years, Duke only the year they won. In Kentucky's finals loss, they also had the #1 class all 4 previous years.

Kentucky has had the #1 class 7 times and the #2 class 4 times (they have been #1 or #2 every year since 2008 recruiting class. They have been in the finals twice and won it all (once) in 2012 (against Kansas who did not have a top 5 class in the previous 4 years) that year they had a #1 recruiting class, they also had #1 recruiting classes the previous 3 years for both final appearances.

DUKE has had 4 #1 classes (4 of the last 5 years), and 6 top 5 classes since 2008. They have made the finals twice and won both times. Once against Butler and once against Wisconsin. Wisconsin's 4 recruiting classes were ranked 2014 #130, 2013 #38, 2012 #61 and #43 in 2011. Butler was #64 in 2011, #62 in 2012, #46 in 2013 and #62 in 2014.

Only 2 other teams have been in the top 5 more than Memphis since 2008. Arizona 5 times and UCLA 4 times. Louisville, Ohio State and Memphis have all been in the top 5 3 times. Kansas, Texas and UNC have had 2 classes in the top 5. 14 other teams have had a top 5 class once.

Going back each year and looking at the winner and their 4 year recruiting ranking leading up to their championship.

VIRGINIA 2019 #65, #98, #7, #62, no 5 stars
VILLANOVA 2018 #29, #45, #28, #9, 3 5 stars
NORTH CAROLINA 2017 #14, #70, #10, #15, 4 5 stars
VILLANOVA 2016 #29, #48, #36, #27, 1 5 star
DUKE 2015 #1, #9, #41, #2, 6 5 stars
UCONN 2014 #37, #29, #33, #23, 1 5 star
LOUISVILLE 2013 #79, #3, #63, #23, 1 5 star
KENTUCKY 2012 #1, #1, #1, #1, 11 5 stars
UCONN 2011 #23, #8, #7, #252, 3 5 stars
DUKE 2010 #20, #14, #11, #5, 4 5 stars

So, it has been done, having the #1 class and winning it all, but only twice, counting a finals loss, 3 times. You could say statistically Memphis has a 25-20% chance to win it all. But reality says that 5 stars are occasionally super stars, but usually beaten by good experienced teams. Our best hope is that one of our freshman is actually an incredible college basketball player.

Its going to be fun!

Excellent points.

I think that winning a Natty has just as much to do with luck as it does with talent. The talent gets you to the dance but then it comes down to six games being played by 18-22 year olds.

Duke this year was a basket away from losing in the Round of 32 then a basket away from the FF.

Auburn very well should have lost the first game then were jobbed by a missed call that kept them from the National Title game.

Virginia, who won the title and benefited from that call was losing by double digits in their first two games.

My hope is to rack up a lot of wins in the regular season and get a top 3 seed in the NCAAt.

Get to the S16 with a at worst even odds of winning that game for a spot in the E8 and then hope for the best after that.

I thought I hit the little basketball, but the internet doesn't lie, sorry.

(06-07-2019 09:16 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Excellent points.

I think that winning a Natty has just as much to do with luck as it does with talent. The talent gets you to the dance but then it comes down to six games being played by 18-22 year olds.

Duke this year was a basket away from losing in the Round of 32 then a basket away from the FF.

Auburn very well should have lost the first game then were jobbed by a missed call that kept them from the National Title game.

Virginia, who won the title and benefited from that call was losing by double digits in their first two games.

My hope is to rack up a lot of wins in the regular season and get a top 3 seed in the NCAAt.

Get to the S16 with a at worst even odds of winning that game for a spot in the E8 and then hope for the best after that.

Definitely some luck involved. The 2007-8 team had a 3 point lead against Miss State and they had a chance to tie it at the end. Two missed free throws gave them the chance at the end which was certainly a harbinger of things to come. It helps if you can hedge your luck though. Having a good free throw shooting team and a decent 3 point shooting team can help you with that.

Most important thing you can do to winning a national championship is to get in the tournament. Getting a good seed is usually helpful. Sometimes it really just depends on other teams losing.

Sometimes it depends on the matchup. No way Duke and Michigan State should have been an Elite 8 matchup.

(06-07-2019 09:50 AM)fsquid Wrote:  Sometimes it depends on the matchup. No way Duke and Michigan State should have been an Elite 8 matchup.

Therein lies the problem. When Duke doesn’t leave their home state sometimes until E8 game it makes it harder. Matchups mean so much in your chances. A good point was brought up by a writer who name I forget: Georgia had a highly ranked class but they were all wings. He then used our class to show a much more balanced class which he obviously thought gave us a better chance of success.

We have never had this big of class that covers every position. A little light in the front court depending on Malco who might be the key to our season even if 15 minutes off the bench. But winning it all takes LUCK in all the tournaments I’ve watched. Seems as if most champions past the UCLA dynasty had one close game.

Matchups do seem like a big deal in the tournament.
Endurance comes into play towards the end, especially if a player has a previous injury.

Location can work against one team but the ‘committee’ seems to be more sensitive these days.

But for Pete’s sake, better not make it so close that the refs get to decide lol

The point is, even though I love having the #1 recruiting class, the average recruiting class of the national champion since 2008 is about #30. There are at least 30 or more other teams that have a decent shot at a championship this season. It depends on the luck of the draw, injuries, and how close the recruiting rankers were to what actually happens.

Pastner and Caliapri, while here, had several really good classes. They both ended up with players who did not live up to their rankings. And, if you've ever watched the tournament, you know there are some very good players who were ranked between 20-120.

Here's last years NBA Allstars
James Harden 5 star #14
Kevin Durant 5 star #2
Kyrie Irving 5 star #2
Kawhi Leonard 4 star #57
Lebron James 5 star #1
Anthony Davis 5 star #1
Ben Simmons 5 star #1
Bradley Beal 5 star #4
Damian Lilliard 3 star #214
Dwayne Wade unranked and barely recruited because of academic issues
Karl Anthony Towns 5 star #5
Klay Thompson 4 star between #6 and #51
LaMarcus Aldridge 5 star #13
Stephen Curry 3 star #256
Joel Embiid 5 star #14
Paul George 3 star #20 in California so about top 100ish
Kemba Walker 5 star #14
Blake Griffin 5 star #16
D'Angelo Russell 5 star #16
Khris Middleton 4 star #102
Kyle Lowry 4 star #29
Nikola Jokic 0 star unranked (older brother played for Detroit Mercy)
Nikola Vucevic 0 star unranked (USC 3 years)
Victor Oladipo 3 star #136
Russell Westbrook 3 star #137

(06-07-2019 10:48 AM)snowtiger Wrote:  Matchups do seem like a big deal in the tournament.
Endurance comes into play towards the end, especially if a player has a previous injury.

Location can work against one team but the ‘committee’ seems to be more sensitive these days.

But for Pete’s sake, better not make it so close that the refs get to decide lol

I swear the tourney sells buzzer beaters. The Duke 92 shot is replayed over and over. Cinderellas are celebrated. Has anyone seen the NC State Vilvano clip? The officiating every March seems to favor the losing/underdog teams. It looks as though they're trying to keep games close. It makes me nuts! But......it's still the coolest sporting event!

I feel like there is no chance we win a national championship next season. We can always hope, but no chance of a championship next season. A final four would be freaking incredible, elite 8 more realistic, sweet 16 the most likely outcome.

cmt this is a GREAT thread! Loving it. Very informative.

Based on what we saw this year, you need a lot of luck. Look at Virginia against Purdue and Auburn and even Texas Tech. Purdue vs Tennessee is another example. Hopefully the depth of our team allows players to be fresh for the post season run. Duke didn't have depth and it was a detriment to them. We may play more zone this year with the 3 point line moving back but I like the fact that we will have at least 2 3 point shooters on the floor at all times. The new strength coach mentioned that Penny's goal was to score 90 every game but if a team don't let us run, we can then push them around. Coach Darby says that's just up his alley. I like that this team will be able to play a variety of styles. Hopefully by the end of the season, the players will have the mental toughness and the chemistry to make a deep run.

(06-07-2019 09:16 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Excellent points.

I think that winning a Natty has just as much to do with luck as it does with talent. The talent gets you to the dance but then it comes down to six games being played by 18-22 year olds.

Duke this year was a basket away from losing in the Round of 32 then a basket away from the FF.

Auburn very well should have lost the first game then were jobbed by a missed call that kept them from the National Title game.

Virginia, who won the title and benefited from that call was losing by double digits in their first two games.

My hope is to rack up a lot of wins in the regular season and get a top 3 seed in the NCAAt.

Get to the S16 with a at worst even odds of winning that game for a spot in the E8 and then hope for the best after that.

Agree with this. Sweet 16 with talent. And hopefully luck will be in our side after that.

(06-07-2019 12:45 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  I feel like there is no chance we win a national championship next season. We can always hope, but no chance of a championship next season. A final four would be freaking incredible, elite 8 more realistic, sweet 16 the most likely outcome.

I feel like the chances are slim, but of the 300+ teams eligible, we are in the top 30 as far as realistic chances go, you might even say top 20. And that's about as good as it is ever going to get for anybody. Especially when you look at Kentucky's failures with so many #1 and #2 classes in a row.

Now, if Hardaway continues to recruit top 5 recruiting classes each year, I think the chances to win a championship go to about 99.9% during the next 5 years.

It is the number one class against 300 plus other schools, so regardless, they should not be favored to win against the field. As our very young team ages though they will be really good, and that should continue for a few years. Stunning that 2012 KY team had 11 5 star recruits.

The thing is, the tournament determines the national champion. So it is not just a tournament championship. The champion must first get into the tournament, and then must win 6 games in a row. There has never been an undeserving national champion, with the exception of ky every time, and kansas once. The national champion is the only team who can be called the national champion. Any other claimant is only a pretender. The only championship in college athletics that can be legitimately be challenged is football.

(06-07-2019 01:56 PM)Mimi Wrote:  It is the number one class against 300 plus other schools, so regardless, they should not be favored to win against the field. As our very young team ages though they will be really good, and that should continue for a few years. Stunning that 2012 KY team had 11 5 star recruits.

Kentucky had recruited 11 5 stars during the previous 4 classes. Many (maybe all) went pro the next year.

good article from main writer at 247 Sports on Top 10 Teams With Realistic Chance to Win NCAAB Title Next Year....

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/co...132653854/

(06-07-2019 02:37 PM)k2tigers Wrote:  good article from main writer at 247 Sports on Top 10 Teams With Realistic Chance to Win NCAAB Title Next Year....

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/co...132653854/

Yeah, but he's got us at #10 it looks like. But, its been a long time since that's happened.

(06-07-2019 02:37 PM)k2tigers Wrote:  good article from main writer at 247 Sports on Top 10 Teams With Realistic Chance to Win NCAAB Title Next Year....

https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/co...132653854/

Ohio State?