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Interesting Article: The Economics Of Scheduling In The AAC
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zoocrew Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Interesting Article: The Economics Of Scheduling In The AAC
(06-08-2019 12:10 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(06-08-2019 07:31 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-07-2019 05:09 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  
(06-07-2019 05:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-07-2019 05:04 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  
I'm talking about the last 2 season.
In 2016 UCF was not the program they are now. They were a 6-7 program that lost their bowl game to Arkansas State.

Sure LSU took care of them in their bowl last year. But like I said, right now there are only a handful of P5's that could beat them.

But why would you look at just the last two seasons, as if that very small slice of time defines who UCF has been or is likely to be going forward?

Because it is who they are right now. The past won't take the field for them in 2019.

It's not who they are right now. 2017 and 2018 won't take the field for them in 2019 either.

Plus, scheduling is about the farther future, not 2019.

Bottom line: Based on history, the only data we have, P5 do not have any reason to fear UCF.

To add to that, UCF has never ranked in the top 50 in football recruiting and is not sending a boatload of talent to the NFL. They are one of the better recruiting G5 schools, but neither the recruiting rankings or the NFL has felt that UCF has great talent. It is one thing to beat a power conference school in a non-conference game, it is another to play eight or nine conference games against them and have success.

Obviously, they are doing a great of coaching at UCF the last few years, but can they sustain it? They have to prove it over time and they have not. They only G5 school that has is Boise State and if they play a power conference school it is a 50-50 bet on their winning the game.

Ball bounces in our direction one more time and we take UCF out last year.
06-08-2019 08:04 PM
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CardinalJim Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Interesting Article: The Economics Of Scheduling In The AAC
Kentucky used all of the above excuses when Louisville would ask to schedule them in the 80’s. For years we asked for home and home but UK said our stadium was too small for all their fans...lol

Finally we agreed to play them at their place every year until our stadium was built, when we started winning they tried to weasel out of the games, the state legislature got involved. The game has been played every season since 1994. The first 4 were played in Lexington and UofL won 2 of those.
Now the game rotates between stadiums.

Sometimes things happen that end up helping your program. UofL and Georgia were scheduled to play a two game series in 2011 & 2012. Georgia cancelled the Louisville game to play in the Chic-fil-A Kickoff against Boise State. The bowl paid Louisville 600K to cancel the game, while ESPN negotiated North Carolina coming to Louisville in 2012.

When Maryland left The ACC in November, UNC officials had already visited Louisville for the game the previous September and UofL officials seized the opportunity to showcase the school. Many say Georgia canceling the game helped Louisville land in The ACC.

Finally like I have said before I see both sides of the scheduling debate, I still remember Louisville struggling to get quality opponents to come to their stadium. Now Louisville tries to play as many in state schools as possible. It keeps revenue in the state.

UCF is in a tough spot. Being seen as too good to risk playing makes it hard to fill a non-conference schedule. On the other hand, you don’t want to be everyone’s homecoming opponent either. UCF just needs to keep building their brand and winning games.

Hard to say if that will be enough. It wasn’t for Southern Miss. The Eagles invented playing Anyone Anywhere Anytime and yet they are still in CUSA because of other factors, mainly market size. It was for Louisville though. UCF just needs to get lucky and be ready.
(This post was last modified: 06-09-2019 06:13 AM by CardinalJim.)
06-09-2019 06:12 AM
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msm96wolf Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Interesting Article: The Economics Of Scheduling In The AAC
While I don't agree with UCF refusals for 2-1, because they are not going to get FL, FSU and Miami to agree to less right now. I do believe they are doing the one thing that I always thought hindered ECU going back to the BCS, they never could create even an occasional NCAA and consistent NIT basketball team.

UCF appears to be doing that with Dawkins. Keep both football and basketball up, they will be the prize pick from the G5 when the next expansion or realignment happens.
06-09-2019 06:33 PM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Interesting Article: The Economics Of Scheduling In The AAC
(06-09-2019 06:12 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Kentucky used all of the above excuses when Louisville would ask to schedule them in the 80’s. For years we asked for home and home but UK said our stadium was too small for all their fans...lol

Finally we agreed to play them at their place every year until our stadium was built, when we started winning they tried to weasel out of the games, the state legislature got involved. The game has been played every season since 1994. The first 4 were played in Lexington and UofL won 2 of those.
Now the game rotates between stadiums.

Sometimes things happen that end up helping your program. UofL and Georgia were scheduled to play a two game series in 2011 & 2012. Georgia cancelled the Louisville game to play in the Chic-fil-A Kickoff against Boise State. The bowl paid Louisville 600K to cancel the game, while ESPN negotiated North Carolina coming to Louisville in 2012.

When Maryland left The ACC in November, UNC officials had already visited Louisville for the game the previous September and UofL officials seized the opportunity to showcase the school. Many say Georgia canceling the game helped Louisville land in The ACC.

Finally like I have said before I see both sides of the scheduling debate, I still remember Louisville struggling to get quality opponents to come to their stadium. Now Louisville tries to play as many in state schools as possible. It keeps revenue in the state.

UCF is in a tough spot. Being seen as too good to risk playing makes it hard to fill a non-conference schedule. On the other hand, you don’t want to be everyone’s homecoming opponent either. UCF just needs to keep building their brand and winning games.

Hard to say if that will be enough. It wasn’t for Southern Miss. The Eagles invented playing Anyone Anywhere Anytime and yet they are still in CUSA because of other factors, mainly market size. It was for Louisville though. UCF just needs to get lucky and be ready.

On the one hand, UCF has a big advantage over USM in the sense that it has a great location in Orlando. That gives UCF a bit more of advantage on paper in enticing P5 schools to come visit. On the other hand, schools in the SEC and ACC already play games in Florida regularly as part of their conference schedules and the city of Orlando has been setting up its own high profile non-conference games (as Louisville itself participated in last year). Plus, USF is competing with 2-for-1 deals in a better financial and competitive setup for visiting P5 teams (in an NFL stadium where the USF home field advantage is muted).

I don't think there's a question that UCF can beat many (most?) P5 teams on the field. It's more about whether UCF truly has the branding to give it enough leverage in scheduling negotiations. In essence, is a home game against UCF valuable enough to a P5 school to go on the road to UCF in exchange? Boise State has been able to accumulate that branding over the years. Gonzaga has done it on the basketball front, as well. In contrast, I think the *current* position of UCF for scheduling purposes is a lose-lose for the vast majority of P5 schools: they're not enough of a brand to make it worth it to play a 1-for-1 series *and* UCF can beat them on-the-field, too, which is the worst of both worlds.

That's not to say that it won't change in the future, but UCF shouldn't mistake its prowess on the field over the past 2 years (which has been great) with branding power (which is a totally different animal). They are not the same thing at all.
06-10-2019 02:19 PM
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