RE: Zeihan: China and Huawei
China's economy doesn't work without massive oil imports from the Mideast. And that supply chain is very tenuous and threatened by Iran, India, and/or Indonesia. One of those has potential stability issues, one of those hates China, and one of those has potential stability issues and hates China. We need to shift our focus from unwindable wars (at least the way we are fighting them) in the Mideast and more toward the South China Sea. Obama's Pacific pivot was a great idea, except nothing pivoted.
As far as their man-made "islands" in the SCS, those don't protect their oil supply, except perhaps after it gets to the SCS, and the real challenges are before it gets there. What they do is intimidate their neighbors. Right now they are focusing on Vietnam and Philippines. And, of course, the threat to Taiwan is always in the picture. They are rapidly building an amphibious force. Right now they have 2 LHAs, 8 LPDs, 32 LSTs, and 31 LSMs. If we assume 2,000 troops per LHA, 1,000 per LPD, 400 per LST, and 250 per LSM, that gives them a phib lift capability of 30-35,000 troops. That's not enough to put much of a dent in Taiwan, so they would have to rely on expensive commandeering of merchant ships or extensive use of airborne. Given Taiwan's air defense capabilities, I would guess that they could do massive damage to any large airborne effort. That amphibious force is probably enough to cause some significant consternation in either Vietnam or the Philippines. And, of course, they could attack Vietnam overland. My bottom line is that I don't think China is at this point building a military to engage in kinetic peer war with the USA, but merely to intimidate and bully its neighbors around the SCS and first island chain. That fits the island-building, that fits the fleet and military they are building, and that simply fits everything they are doing.
In case there were a war, then if it works the way it is supposed to work, China's highly touted A2/AD systems probably rule out sending combatant ships close to the Chinese mainland. Strategically, I would think we would want to keep carriers outside the first island chain in a conflict, and use carrier air to provide a cover over other units operating closer in. The logical choice for any attack efforts would be submarine-launched cruise missiles. Then, if and when we had succeeded in destroying or disrupting a sufficient portion of their A2/AD umbrella, bring carriers and other ships in closer to attack directly. But I don't think we want to, or need to, get into a kinetic peer war with China. And I'm pretty sure they don't want one with us.
I think we should treat this as Cold War II, and reprise the strategy we used to win Cold War I. Truman bribed up an alliance to contain Soviet expansion, and 40 years later Regan found ways to put pressure on their economy and crater their system. We already have relationships with the Quad--India, Australia, Japan, and USA--and we can and should strengthen those. We should want to bring Vietnam, Thailand, and the rest of the first island chain--Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines, and Taiwan--firmly onboard. We have two carrots to offer. One, we are in a mod to be moving a lot of manufacturing out of China. Bringing home the medical and essential stuff, and splitting the rest among those countries, would be a huge economic boost to each of them. Two, it's kind of like the kid who used to beat you up and steal your lunch money on your way to school every day, until one day your big brother showed up and taught him a lesson. I think we can be that big brother (without the Orwellian overtones) to the nations around the first island chain--including Taiwan. But to do that, we need to have a credible force in the area at all times.
We have kind of been sitting back and letting China have its way in the SCS. China pretty much had a cow when we put two carriers into the SCS at the same time a few weeks back. We need to keep a carrier battle group (CVBG) and an amphibious ready group (ARG) with embarked Marine expeditionary unit (MEU) in or near the SCS on an ongoing basis, and make sure China and our allies understand that will be SOP going forward. And for those who haven't followed some of my other posts, my idea of a CVBG is two carriers, and in wartime combining two CVBGs to form a carrier task force (CTF). And my idea of an MEU is about 50% larger than the current concept, including an infantry battalion, a tank company, an artillery battery or two, an amphibious armor company (with improved AAVs, including amphibious tanks), and an air detachment with troop transport helos and a close air support (CAS) element including AV-8s/F-35s, and Cobras. I'd have those unts main port calls in Subic, Sepanggar, Jakarta, Singapore, Cam Ranh, and, yes, Kaoshiung, on a regular basis. And I'd tell China to get used to it, that's the way it's going to be, and it is specifically our policy not to oppose allowing any of the first island chain--including Taiwan--to fall under Chinese hegemony.
(This post was last modified: 09-01-2020 11:58 AM by Owl 69/70/75.)
|