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Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
I'd like to make an argument that the Big Ten's 21st expansion was horribly botched.

My initial assessment of their expansion desires was they had two major interests:

1. Notre Dame
2. Gaining highly populated eastern markets to capitalize on a market based revenue model, particulately when it comes to T3 carriage fees on the BTN

To accomplish objective 1 they needed to make the BE an untenable conference home. This plays in to objective 2. IMHO there were 5 potential northeastern schools that could have been picked:

Rutgers (BE--NYC market)
Syracuse (BE--Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo markets)
Pitt (BE--Pittsburgh market, partially covered by PSU)
Maryland (ACC--DC and Baltimore markets)
BC (ACC--Boston market)

Adding 4 of those plus ND to create a 16 team league would have been ideal. Had they taken the 3 BE schools and one of the ACC schools I think it would have done enough damage to make ND seek a new conference home and the Big Ten with it's big Midwestern and east coast markets would have been their only real option. Not to mention the Big Ten would be home to 5 of their annual rivals: Mich, Mich St, Purdue, Pitt, and BC. With an 8 game conference schedule there would still be plenty of room to play USC and Navy, but probably not Stanford if they wanted to maintain a slot for a MAC-level school and a high profile game from another major opponent.

That's not how it went. Larry Scott of the PAC 10 announced his own expansion intents. Delany got caught off guard and distracted. He panicked and added Nebraska. There was no reason to add Nebraska when he did and he should have waited. Even if the PAC 16 plan had been consummated Nebraska was still going to be there. The PAC 12 had no interest in them. There was no reason to rush that decision.

By jumping the gun with a knee jerk reaction with Nebraska Delany sabotaged the East Coast/ND gambit. With Nebraska in the fold he didn't have enough spots to deliver the decisive death plow to the BE and gather the eastern markets and traditional ND foes into the fold.

Why do I say this? The loss of 3 football schools, Pitt, Cuse, and WVU (2 of which I proposed the B10 should have taken) was precisely the blow that it took to destabilize the BE and send ND looking. With a footprint from Maryland to Miami, aside from GT and the hot but short lived Catholics vs the Convicts Miami series ND didn't have a lot of history with the ACC. It also doesn't have the types of markets, urban with high Catholic populations, that ND was looking for.
06-01-2019 11:37 AM
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MissouriStateBears Offline
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RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
PAC would have been very interested in Nebraska. Nebraska is a top 10 brand in college football. It was a slam dunk done deal for the Big Ten. That is why no chatter for the PAC expansion on them.
06-01-2019 12:23 PM
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Rob from NJ Online
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RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
At the time the expansion with Nebraska was about the additional revenue of a Conference Championship game by adding a 12th school, as well as, adding a top national brand. The expansion East was about the additional revenue from cable boxes. Rutgers and Maryland fit the bill. Penn State already has the Western Pennsylvania cable market covered for BTN, thus, Pitt was duplication and the Syracuse cable marketplace was smaller.

Notre Dame was remaining independent no matter what. Their objective is first to secure independence and then to align with a Conference with access to their post season games. The ACC was perfect fit. The Big Ten not so much.

Delany did exactly what he needed to do and their significant jump in TV revenue since this expansion is point of proof. Of course, it's all opinion and subject to looking back in time with present information.
06-01-2019 12:42 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
(06-01-2019 12:23 PM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  PAC would have been very interested in Nebraska. Nebraska is a top 10 brand in college football. It was a slam dunk done deal for the Big Ten. That is why no chatter for the PAC expansion on them.

Texas, A&M, TTU, Okla, Ok St, and Colorado were who they wanted--not Nebraska.
06-01-2019 01:42 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
(06-01-2019 12:23 PM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  PAC would have been very interested in Nebraska. Nebraska is a top 10 brand in college football. It was a slam dunk done deal for the Big Ten. That is why no chatter for the PAC expansion on them.

Texas, A&M, TTU, Okla, Ok St, and Colorado were who they wanted--not Nebraska.v
06-01-2019 01:42 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
(06-01-2019 11:37 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I'd like to make an argument that the Big Ten's 21st expansion was horribly botched.

The B1G just distributed $55m per school in 2018.

If that's a "botch" what would a success look like?

07-coffee3
06-01-2019 01:52 PM
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RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
If this were the first move the Big Ten made it would have been interesting to see if the SEC would have still gone for Missouri and TAMU ... or went east to block the B1G and lock it into declining demographic markets (rust belt) and pro-heavy demographic markets with relatively low market penetration (New England).


Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
+ Maryland, Rutgers, Syracuse, Boston College, Pittsburgh = 16


Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
+ Virginia Tech, NC State, Virginia, Louisville = 16


The trouble is there's no way for the SEC to take enough to not leave very tasty assets laying around for others without getting substantially bigger. I've long contended the best way to make everybody the most money with schedules they actually want to play is to find some way to put the ACC's southern teams, the SEC, and the Big 12 under one umbrella and blend the schedules where the conferences overlap. The trouble with doing this today is the ACC has three teams that would be total misfits in that scenario: Pitt, Cuse, BC.
06-01-2019 01:57 PM
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Post: #8
RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
(06-01-2019 01:52 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  The B1G just distributed $55m per school in 2018.

If that's a "botch" what would a success look like?

07-coffee3


While the market model holds up, yes. And those B1G numbers are fudged some. And no amount of athletic profit justifies the negligent manslaughter of a player or organized and covered up pedophilia. If if makes you feel any better I would have removed UNC's accreditation as a university for their academic fraud misdeeds, but that sounds too much like ethics with teeth for the NCAA to stomach. Another round of death penalties for SMU for everyone!
06-01-2019 01:59 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
(06-01-2019 12:42 PM)Rob from NJ Wrote:  At the time the expansion with Nebraska was about the additional revenue of a Conference Championship game by adding a 12th school, as well as, adding a top national brand. The expansion East was about the additional revenue from cable boxes. Rutgers and Maryland fit the bill. Penn State already has the Western Pennsylvania cable market covered for BTN, thus, Pitt was duplication and the Syracuse cable marketplace was smaller.

Notre Dame was remaining independent no matter what. Their objective is first to secure independence and then to align with a Conference with access to their post season games. The ACC was perfect fit. The Big Ten not so much.

Delany did exactly what he needed to do and their significant jump in TV revenue since this expansion is point of proof. Of course, it's all opinion and subject to looking back in time with present information.

Yes, title game revenue was also of interest.

Pitt does duplicate a market but in order to cripple BE football you need them. It's not a total loss. They are an ancient rival of both ND and Penn St so there is value there.

Syracuse brings value too. Western New York is practically its own state, with several markets like Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo. Adding them gets you all of those markets and they also have a following in NYC.

ND independence is not necessarily inevitable at this point. The Big East is down to WVU, Louisville, Cincy, UConn, and USF for football. One of those schools will inevitably go to the ACC. The Catholic 7 likely break off. At this point the only real options for ND are membership in the Catholic 7 Conference with independent football or join the Big Ten for all sports. The other P5 conferences are all out due to geography or poor cultural fit. The Irish didn't think the Catholic 7 was a strong enough wagon to hitch their horse to.
06-01-2019 01:59 PM
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RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
(06-01-2019 01:52 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(06-01-2019 11:37 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I'd like to make an argument that the Big Ten's 21st expansion was horribly botched.

The B1G just distributed $55m per school in 2018.

If that's a "botch" what would a success look like?

07-coffee3
Agree, Quo.

I dont know what's right or wrong for the most part with the BIG expansion?

I will say that Nebraska is a slam dunk addition and I personally love having them in the conference.
06-01-2019 02:00 PM
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Post: #11
RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
Keep in mind the Big Ten was also looking at Missouri at the time as a plan B. Their eyes were west for 12 and east for 14. The only reason why Nebraska hasn't looked like that good of an add is because Nebraska football and baseball lost their old recruiting ground in Texas and are just now figuring out how to replace them. That's not unique to Nebraska; the same thing happened to Pitt basketball.

Some NSFW language but a good video on the state of affairs at Pitt and the consequences of chasing money over recruits: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjAV2ypvK6I
06-01-2019 02:08 PM
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RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
(06-01-2019 01:57 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  If this were the first move the Big Ten made it would have been interesting to see if the SEC would have still gone for Missouri and TAMU ... or went east to block the B1G and lock it into declining demographic markets (rust belt) and pro-heavy demographic markets with relatively low market penetration (New England).


Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
+ Maryland, Rutgers, Syracuse, Boston College, Pittsburgh = 16


Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
+ Virginia Tech, NC State, Virginia, Louisville = 16


The trouble is there's no way for the SEC to take enough to not leave very tasty assets laying around for others without getting substantially bigger. I've long contended the best way to make everybody the most money with schedules they actually want to play is to find some way to put the ACC's southern teams, the SEC, and the Big 12 under one umbrella and blend the schedules where the conferences overlap. The trouble with doing this today is the ACC has three teams that would be total misfits in that scenario: Pitt, Cuse, BC.

Te four for the SEC would have been F.S.U. for branding and leverage with ad rates in Florida, Clemson (they are the most SEC like school in the ACC) and N.C. State and Virginia Tech for markets.

That might have left the academic diamonds, or not. When Maryland departed Cunningham contacted the SEC for a fallback position but under the condition that Duke come as well. If that overture had been made in earnest then our decision might have left Clemson out. Florida State and Virginia or Virginia Tech might well have been 3 & 4 but I don't think we would have taken both Virginia schools. We would have been quite happy with UNC/Duke/FSU/Clemson too.
06-01-2019 02:09 PM
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Rob from NJ Online
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Post: #13
RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
(06-01-2019 01:59 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(06-01-2019 12:42 PM)Rob from NJ Wrote:  At the time the expansion with Nebraska was about the additional revenue of a Conference Championship game by adding a 12th school, as well as, adding a top national brand. The expansion East was about the additional revenue from cable boxes. Rutgers and Maryland fit the bill. Penn State already has the Western Pennsylvania cable market covered for BTN, thus, Pitt was duplication and the Syracuse cable marketplace was smaller.

Notre Dame was remaining independent no matter what. Their objective is first to secure independence and then to align with a Conference with access to their post season games. The ACC was perfect fit. The Big Ten not so much.

Delany did exactly what he needed to do and their significant jump in TV revenue since this expansion is point of proof. Of course, it's all opinion and subject to looking back in time with present information.

Yes, title game revenue was also of interest.

Pitt does duplicate a market but in order to cripple BE football you need them. It's not a total loss. They are an ancient rival of both ND and Penn St so there is value there.

Syracuse brings value too. Western New York is practically its own state, with several markets like Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo. Adding them gets you all of those markets and they also have a following in NYC.

ND independence is not necessarily inevitable at this point. The Big East is down to WVU, Louisville, Cincy, UConn, and USF for football. One of those schools will inevitably go to the ACC. The Catholic 7 likely break off. At this point the only real options for ND are membership in the Catholic 7 Conference with independent football or join the Big Ten for all sports. The other P5 conferences are all out due to geography or poor cultural fit. The Irish didn't think the Catholic 7 was a strong enough wagon to hitch their horse to.

I just don't think the Big Ten intended or would cripple BE football, or any Conference or region. One can argue the effects of brand image based on predatory practices, as well as, turning off the larger and traditional mid-west base.

More importantly, the Big Ten expanded with schools that paid for themselves at the present time, and not necessarily based on a prediction of what a long term, unknown future looks like. The Conference appears to have made diligent, smart business decisions.

Also, I believe the Big Ten learned from their expansion with Penn State and the errors that were made with 1 school, much less moving from 11 schools to 16 in a short timeframe. Even with Maryland and Rutgers, mistakes have been made. It's hard enough integrating 2 schools. Slow and steady is the best course.
06-01-2019 02:16 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
(06-01-2019 01:57 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  If this were the first move the Big Ten made it would have been interesting to see if the SEC would have still gone for Missouri and TAMU ... or went east to block the B1G and lock it into declining demographic markets (rust belt) and pro-heavy demographic markets with relatively low market penetration (New England).


Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
+ Maryland, Rutgers, Syracuse, Boston College, Pittsburgh = 16


Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State
+ Virginia Tech, NC State, Virginia, Louisville = 16


The trouble is there's no way for the SEC to take enough to not leave very tasty assets laying around for others without getting substantially bigger. I've long contended the best way to make everybody the most money with schedules they actually want to play is to find some way to put the ACC's southern teams, the SEC, and the Big 12 under one umbrella and blend the schedules where the conferences overlap. The trouble with doing this today is the ACC has three teams that would be total misfits in that scenario: Pitt, Cuse, BC.

If you could consolidate college football into two associations that would be awesome:

A greater southern league with the SEC plus the Texlahoma 4, WVU, and the best of the Southern ACC schools.

a greater northern league featuring the Big Ten, ND, the northern ACC teams, and most of the PAC 12.

The tv value would be immense.
06-01-2019 02:22 PM
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RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
(06-01-2019 02:22 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If you could consolidate college football into two associations that would be awesome:

A greater southern league with the SEC plus the Texlahoma 4, WVU, and the best of the Southern ACC schools.

a greater northern league featuring the Big Ten, ND, the northern ACC teams, and most of the PAC 12.

The tv value would be immense.


It makes sense. It creates the most revenue with the least damage. But due to GoR issues, that requires the P5 and FOX and ESPN sitting down at the same table and trading assets like they're properties on a monopoly board. I don't see enough adults in the room for that to happen.
06-01-2019 02:28 PM
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RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
If the Big Ten was going to shift their target from ND and eastern markets to Big 12 programs and content then they needed to go far deeper than Nebraska:

Nebraska
Missouri
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A&M

If A&M still wanted the SEC then you switch them out for Kansas--not as big a fish but it salvages the plan.
06-01-2019 02:33 PM
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RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
(06-01-2019 02:28 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(06-01-2019 02:22 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If you could consolidate college football into two associations that would be awesome:

A greater southern league with the SEC plus the Texlahoma 4, WVU, and the best of the Southern ACC schools.

a greater northern league featuring the Big Ten, ND, the northern ACC teams, and most of the PAC 12.

The tv value would be immense.


It makes sense. It creates the most revenue with the least damage. But due to GoR issues, that requires the P5 and FOX and ESPN sitting down at the same table and trading assets like they're properties on a monopoly board. I don't see enough adults in the room for that to happen.

The way to get around it is to get enough of the members of the other 3 conferences to vote to disband.

ACC is easy--you need probably 10 of the 15 and between the 2 new associations I think there are 10 schools that would get picked up and be in favor.
Cracking the Big 12 and PAC 12 are a little harder. You need 8 of 10--I can concieve 7 getting picked up so you'd need to wait foe the GOR to end.
06-01-2019 02:39 PM
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RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
You are either a blueblood or you are not.

You could put Clemson, Michigan St, Baylor, Utah and Syracuse in the same division if you wanted. Clemson and Michigan St are still going to be on top of it most years.

Aside from Nebraska and TAMU moving none of the realignment moves mattered that much IMO.
06-01-2019 02:43 PM
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RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
Yeah Nebraska was a strong addition but they should have been decisive and immediately gone after Pitt and Syracuse instead of Maryland and Rutgers

Don’t really think ND has been a realistic option in a longtime so they never should have really factored into the decision making process
(This post was last modified: 06-01-2019 03:05 PM by Gamecock.)
06-01-2019 03:03 PM
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RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
(06-01-2019 02:33 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If the Big Ten was going to shift their target from ND and eastern markets to Big 12 programs and content then they needed to go far deeper than Nebraska:

Nebraska
Missouri
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A&M

If A&M still wanted the SEC then you switch them out for Kansas--not as big a fish but it salvages the plan.
If you want to see Nebraska back out of joining the Big Ten then invite Texas at the same time. Texas is the reason why they left.
06-01-2019 03:33 PM
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