(07-11-2019 12:23 PM)XLance Wrote: John Ourand
@Ourand_SBJ
The revenue gap between the Big Ten and SEC is widening at "an alarming rate," @SmittySBJ reports in SBJ College. "The SEC trailed the Big Ten in 2018 revenue reports -- $759 million to $660 million."?https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/SB-Blogs/Newsletter-College/2019/07/09.aspx …?
https://twitter.com/Ourand_SBJ
Summer fodder. Everyone knew what the gap would be when the Big 10 signed their last FOX deal. And it will grow in 2022-3 when the next Big 10 contract comes up. The following year the SEC will renew it's T1 rights. If we stay with a traditional network the low estimate is 275 million for just the T1 rights annually and the highest estimate is 315 million for the same. The low number makes our payouts 58 million a year. At 300 million it would be 61 million make it 62 million at 315. If the Big 10 renews with a traditional network they will easily get a 5% bump. (Remember the SEC contract is 15 years old and the Big 10 contract will be 6 years old when renewed). That puts at the lowest estimates the SEC at 58 million plus escalators and the Big 10 at 57.5 million plus escalators so roughly a dead heat.
What could change those dramatically and college football as we know it is if the Big 10 rights or the SEC's T1 rights which would be the ones most sought by companies who are better financed than the networks step into the Sports rights business. Some people are saying that if that comes to pass that these entities will primarily be interested in T1 rights for major events with national draws and that they will want to break out their contracts from conferences and go straight to schools. Early numbers being tossed around for this are in the 80 to 90 million dollars a year for top 20 schools in terms of draw and maybe 40 to 60 million for the next 20 or so schools.
They could buy T2 rights, but simply aren't as interested in those or T3 rights which may be what winds up in the hands of the traditional networks.
In other words ESPN+ could wind up being their only offering once the ACC contract expires in 2037. But the PAC, Big 12, Big 10 and SEC's T1 rights will all be on the market by 2025 (Big 10 2022-3, SEC 2023-4, PAC & Big 12 2024-5). So the entities (Think FAANG) could go heavily after the T1 rights of roughly these schools:
SEC: Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana State, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Big 10: Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Texas, Oklahoma
PAC: USC, UCLA, Stanford, Washington, Oregon
IND: Notre Dame
And then fill in with another 15 or so schools.
What this fundamentally would do is end conferences as we know them now. They would remain for scheduling basketball, baseball, hockey, softball, etc., but college football would become essentially a field of schools with individual contracts in which the wealthiest companies would contract a conference of about 40 or so schools who would play all of their games against each other.
So X, that is why I call it summer time fodder. If we stay with traditional networks the SEC and Big 10 will be essentially in the same ballpark by 2024. Until then the Big 10 revenue gap will grow. But if non traditional players get involved it might change everything essentially give a 30% raise over the highest offers by traditional networks in exchange for the abandonment of traditional conferences in order to form a new upper tier. It is also believe that within 5 years these companies will be very capable of simply buying CBS sports, ESPN, FOX Sports, and NBC if they wish to acquire all of the rights.
So I just thought I'd toss that new wrinkle into the mix since you were reprinting Camel's troll from another board.